Pato's system (96-2) 2010-2011 (40-1)2011-2012

[patocarranza84]

No problem pato, just making sure the thread gets the plays . Like I said, I believe this chase has potential.

Let me get the chase right.. Are we chasing the team that scores under 80 points to lose a game in a 4 game chase? If thats right, then how is Charlotte a play b/c they only scored 78 points on the 24th which gave us the game last night which they lost to Washington 92-75. Which would mean chase is over. I see you have Charlotte pending so does this mean the chase starts over again since they scored under 80 points?

Thats right we start a new chase to play against bobcats since they scored less than 80 pts yesterday

[Wallco99]

Thanks for the english lesson wallco..

No problem happy to do my part!

[Wallco99]

Below is a spreadsheet I have created to show the best bet strategies for this system. It appears that the 7/5 method on C & D bets is the most effective method. My calculations were done based on the backtest provided by Pato in post #35. I hope your data is accurate, because I don't have time to test your system.

[patocarranza84]

Below is a spreadsheet I have created to show the best bet strategies for this system. It appears that the 7/5 method on C & D bets is the most effective method. My calculations were done based on the backtest provided by Pato in post #35. I hope your data is accurate, because I don't have time to test your system.

Wow wallco you really are the man!...thanks a lot for the info you provided...and thanks for giving a look to my system..!!

[Wallco99]

Wow wallco you really are the man!...thanks a lot for the info you provided...and thanks for giving a look to my system..!!

No, I'm just "a" man. To be "the" man would be too much pressure, and as far as I know, Chase Utley holds that title, at least according to Harry Kalas. Glad I could help, now just focus on accuracy with your posts. I run a fade system for NHL, and I realize how confusing fading can be to some players. So it is critical that your updates are clear and consistent, especially since wins mean losses and losses mean wins when we are talking about fade betting. Another tip, lose the gold font in your post, try to pick a better color, that one makes me squint!

[patocarranza84]

Pato's System
(45-1) Finished Series
A: 28-18
B: 11-7
C: 5-2
D: 1-1

Games for 01/26/2012(No plays skip them)
Fade Orl Magic (B) vs Bos Celtics +8 SKIP WIN
Fade Bos Celtics (C) vs Orl Magic -8 SKIP LOST
We would avoid this 2 bets, and the one that doesn't cover the spread for the Fade, we will double in units
in next bet.


Games for 01/27/2012
Fade Cha Bobcats (A) vs Phi Sixers -16
Fade Det Pistons (B) vs Atl Hawks -6
Fade Bos Celtics (D) vs Ind Pacers -3 DOUBLE UNITS!
Wallco:
"Amount of fade Boston (D) bet: 3.31 units + 1.10 units + 2 units = 6.51 units"


We play the teams in blue.

[Wallco99]

The amount of the Celtics (D) bet is calculated as followed (since we skipped two bets):

Total of Boston losses: 1.10 on (A) + 2.31 on (B) + 0 on (C) = 3.41 units
Total of Orlando losses: 1.10 on (A) + 0 on (B) = 1.10 units
Total profit needed : 1 unit from Boston + 1 unit from Orlando = 2.00 units
Amount of Boston (D) bet: 3.31 units + 1.10 units + 2 units = 6.51 units

** A normal (D) bet would cost 8.26 units. Because we skipped the 2 bets, our (D) bet amount will be 6.51 units for this (D) bet, and this will net 2 units of profit if it wins.

[manutd19]

Wallco, i respect you and follow systems you follow. Are you playing Pato's system and how?

[Wallco99]

I gave you the wrong advice, fortunately it worked out in your favor. When you were asking me the other day about how to play two fades, for teams that were going head-head @ all -110 odds, I told you to just skip the bets, and pick up the next bet in progression for the team that loses it's fade bet. I told you that because I thought you had said both bets were (B) bets, I didn't realize one was a (C) bet. My advice would have been right if both series were on the same letter bet, of course, not including the (D) bet. Never start a series that has the potential of head-head D bets.

The way to actually play those games yesterday would have been to play the team who we would be wagering more money on, in this case it would have been Boston (fade), since they were on the (C) bet. The amount would have been the difference of what we were supposed to play on Boston (fade) (4.41 units) minus the amount we were supposed to play on Orlando (fade) (2.10 units). Result would have been a bet on Boston (fade) for 2.41 units. Regardless of who wins, we would play the team that loses the fade on their next bet, for the normal amount we would wager on that bet anyway. If it was Boston fade (D), the bet would be 9.26 units, and if it was the Orlando fade (C), the bet would still be 4.41 units. Net result, we actually make 2.31 units (or 2.21 units, depending on which team wins) on the two bets when it's all said and done. You don't have to try and figure out the math, just trust me, the math takes care of itself. This may seem confusing but it is very simple:

If 2 teams go head-head, subtract the two amounts we are supposed to bet, and bet the higher team for that amount. Then, play the losing team on their next bet for the normal amount of a B, C, or D bet (either 2.10, 4.41, or 9.26 units).

The 6.51 units bet for tonight is correct, because of the misunderstanding of which bets he was talking about. And even though this amount sounds great for a (D) bet, and is, the disaster would have been how much you would have paid had the Orlando fade won and the Boston fade lost last night, the Orlando fade (D) bet would have been significantly higher, and a series loss would have cost 29.80 units. Just feel glad we dodged that bullet, and use my equation above for similar situations in the future.

[Wallco99]

Wallco, i respect you and follow systems you follow. Are you playing Pato's system and how?

I am trying out C&D method for 7/5. So far, so good.

[patocarranza84]

Pato's System
(47-2) Finished Series
A: 29-20
B: 11-9
C: 6-3
D: 1-2
Games for 01/27/2012
Fade Cha Bobcats (A) vs Phi Sixers -16 Win
Fade Det Pistons (B) vs Atl Hawks -6 Push
Fade Bos Celtics (D) vs Ind Pacers -3 Lost
Wallco:
"Amount of fade Boston (D) bet: 3.31 units + 1.10 units + 2 units = 6.51 units"

Games for 01/28/2012
Fade Cha Bobcats (A) vs Wash Wizards (-1.5) SKIP
Fade Wash Wizards (A) vs Cha Bobcats (+1.5) SKIP
Fade Det Pistons (B) vs Phi Sixers (pend)

Pend
Fade SA Spurs (A)
Fade Orl Magic (A)

We play the teams in blue.

[Wallco99]

Pato's System
(47-2) Finished Series
A: 29-20
B: 11-9
C: 6-3
D: 1-2
Games for 01/27/2012
Fade Cha Bobcats (A) vs Phi Sixers -16 Win
Fade Det Pistons (B) vs Atl Hawks -6 Push
Fade Bos Celtics (D) vs Ind Pacers -3 Lost
Wallco:
"Amount of fade Boston (D) bet: 3.31 units + 1.10 units + 2 units = 6.51 units"

Games for 01/28/2012
Fade Cha Bobcats (A) vs Wash Wizards (-1.5) SKIP
Fade Wash Wizards (A) vs Cha Bobcats (+1.5) SKIP
Fade Det Pistons (C) vs Phi Sixers (pend)

Pend
Fade SA Spurs (A)
Fade Orl Magic (A)

We play the teams in blue.

Why are you taking the Pistons to a (C) bet if you say they pushed? Why would you not just play the (B) bet again? That gives you 5 chances in this chase, instead of just the 4.

[patocarranza84]

do i count it as if they didnt play?,,,,

[patocarranza84]

Pato's System
(47-2) Finished Series
A: 29-20
B: 11-9
C: 6-3
D: 1-2
Games for 01/27/2012
Fade Cha Bobcats (A) vs Phi Sixers -16 Win
Fade Det Pistons (B) vs Atl Hawks -6 Push
Fade Bos Celtics (D) vs Ind Pacers -3 Lost
Wallco:
"Amount of fade Boston (D) bet: 3.31 units + 1.10 units + 2 units = 6.51 units"

Games for 01/28/2012
Fade Cha Bobcats (A) vs Wash Wizards (-1.5) SKIP
Fade Wash Wizards (A) vs Cha Bobcats (+1.5) SKIP
Fade Det Pistons (B) vs Phi Sixers (pend)

Pend
Fade SA Spurs (A)
Fade Orl Magic (A)

We play the teams in blue.Pato's System
(47-2) Finished Series
A: 29-20
B: 11-9
C: 6-3
D: 1-2
Games for 01/27/2012
Fade Cha Bobcats (A) vs Phi Sixers -16 Win
Fade Det Pistons (B) vs Atl Hawks -6 Push
Fade Bos Celtics (D) vs Ind Pacers -3 Lost
Wallco:
"Amount of fade Boston (D) bet: 3.31 units + 1.10 units + 2 units = 6.51 units"

Games for 01/28/2012
Fade Cha Bobcats (A) vs Wash Wizards (-1.5) SKIP
Fade Wash Wizards (A) vs Cha Bobcats (+1.5) SKIP
Fade Det Pistons (B) vs Phi Sixers (pend)
Fade Pho Suns (A) vs Mem Grizzlies (-3)
Pend
Fade SA Spurs (A)
Fade Orl Magic (A)

We play the teams in blue.

[Wallco99]

do i count it as if they didnt play?,,,,

That is how I do it, but it's your system.

[patocarranza84]

That is how I do it, but it's your system.

it will work for me thanks for the advice

[patocarranza84]

Pato's System
(49-2) Finished Series
A: 30-21
B: 12-9
C: 6-3
D: 1-2
Games for 01/28/2012
Fade Cha Bobcats (A) vs Wash Wizards (-1.5) SKIP WIN
Fade Wash Wizards (A) vs Cha Bobcats (+1.5) SKIP LOST
Fade Det Pistons (B) vs Phi Sixers (-13) WIN

Games for 01/29/2012
Fade SA Spurs (A) vs Dal Mavericks (-5.5)
Fade Orl Magic (A) vs Ind Pacers (+3)

Pend
Fade Det Pistons (A)
Fade Wash Wizards (B)

We play the teams in blue.

[casdio]

So, let me see if I understood this: you wait until you see a team scoring under 80.5 points in a game. Then, you start betting against that team. So, in the next game, you bet against them ATS, right? And, if you win the bet, chase stops, right?

So, today you will bet on Mavs -5.0 and Pacers -3.0?

And what happens if Spurs lose 79-85? Do you start a new chase on Spurs?

[patocarranza84]

So, let me see if I understood this: you wait until you see a team scoring under 80.5 points in a game. Then, you start betting against that team. So, in the next game, you bet against them ATS, right? And, if you win the bet, chase stops, right?

So, today you will bet on Mavs -5.0 and Pacers -3.0?

And what happens if Spurs lose 79-85? Do you start a new chase on Spurs?

you are correct, pacers is +3

[casdio]

Thanks

[patocarranza84]

Post the plays tomorrow morning

[dymd3z]

Interesting stuff

[shark2434]

basically a normal system with a edge (lets say 55%), plus using the martingale system, I can see how he win, but his unit stake can't be big, what happen if you lose 8 times if a roll? if your first bet is 20$, you already can't recover, since alot of bookies limits your bet under 2500$ already.......since he only has been betting for about 200 games, chances of seeing many consecutive loss is rather low, but in the long run, the chance would increase. That's why single bet are better, If you know you have an edge, you could bet up to 5% of your bankroll each game,and you will be profiting more than just betting 20$ a game.

[cwbuff44]

Hi all. I am literally BRAND NEW to sports betting. I placed my first bets on NBA a few days ago. I'm holding my own so far I suppose. I've been backreading on this thread trying to understand the intricacies of it and how it works, but I can't seem to get a grasp on it. I know it would be a hassle and maybe time consuming. But could someone message me explaining how this works and what I need to do to follow this system? It would be greatly appreciated!!!

Dillon

[cwbuff44]

^^I should have mentioned I understand the basics of betting (Like the difference between betting the spread and the money line, or the over/under). Just don't understand this system.

[Wallco99]

Hi all. I am literally BRAND NEW to sports betting. I placed my first bets on NBA a few days ago. I'm holding my own so far I suppose. I've been backreading on this thread trying to understand the intricacies of it and how it works, but I can't seem to get a grasp on it. I know it would be a hassle and maybe time consuming. But could someone message me explaining how this works and what I need to do to follow this system? It would be greatly appreciated!!!

Dillon

Do a google search on Martingale betting style, and bet the teams in blue, when he has them correct. Couldn't be easier.

[patocarranza84]

Fade Spurs (B) vs Grizzlies
Fade Hornets (A) vs Heat
Fade Wizards (B) vs Bulls TO RISK 3.3
Fade Pistons (A) vs Milwakee

Quickly post sorry guys im in class

WE PLAY TEAMS IN BLUE

[casdio]

Good luck

[shipsn2010]

play

What about fading phoenix, is it a play with Dallas

[casdio]

Orlando 69 - 74 Pacers

So, will you start 2 new chases, 1 on each team?

[patocarranza84]

Pato's System
(52-2) Finished Series
A: 33-22
B: 13-9
C: 6-3
D: 1-2
Games for 01/29/2012
Fade SA Spurs (A) vs Dal Mavericks (-5.5) LOST
Fade Orl Magic (A) vs Ind Pacers (+3) WIN

Games for 01/30/2012

Fade Spurs (B) vs Grizzlies(-6) LOST
Fade Hornets (A) vs Heat (-12.5) WIN
Fade Wizards (B) vs Bulls(-9) TO RISK 3.3 WIN
Fade Pistons (A) vs Milwakee(-7.5) WIN


Pend
Fade SA Spurs (C)
Fade Mem Grizzlies (A)
Fade Orl Magic (A)
Fade Phi Sixers (A)

We play the teams in blue.

[Sandwich]

Good work Pato, keep it up!

[casdio]

Aren't the Nets pending too? They scored 73 in their last game

[Swan4brownlow]

I think the Nets (A) and the Hornets (A) are both pending as well

[shipsn2010]

I'm not bashing but PX was a fade play for yesterday and it won with a Dallas win 122-99!!! If you need help, like I said before I will help you out, this forum is for the benefit of every sportsbetter... They need the plays, and need them in enough time so they can get the most out of the line. Good Luck..

I have as of right now:

SAS: C bet Wednesday
NJ : A bet Tuesday
PHIL: A bet Wednesday
Orlando: A bet Wednesday
Memphis: A bet Tuesday

THESE ARE THE TEAMS BEING FADED!!!!!!!