Pato's system (96-2) 2010-2011 (40-1)2011-2012

[patocarranza84]

Yesterday:
Fade LA Clippers (B) risk 2.2 units win
Fade Tor Raptors (A) risk 1.1 units win

Today:
Fade Cle Cavaliers (A) risk 1.1

I will keep posting this system
You can play it if you wish!
Thanks
Show me da Moneeey!

[Romocide]

Let me get this straight: You are saying that you're 136-3 in the NBA over the past 2 season??

[alexknyc]

Yesterday: Fade LA Clippers (B) risk 2.2 units win Fade Tor Raptors (A) risk 1.1 units win Today: Fade Cle Cavaliers (A) risk 1.1 I will keep posting this system You can play it if you wish! Thanks Show me da Moneeey!

Is this a 3-game chase or a 4-game chase? Are you playing ML or spread? If you're playing spread, are you buying any points?

You claim a record of 136-3. How is that record counted? What is the criteria for a play in your system?

[PearlGold]

136-3 Please explain

[peeiempee]

Don't do it all systems work until they don't. Then you can't recover.

[Riceboi]

Don't do it all systems work until they don't. Then you can't recover.

i don't believe this statement.

[patocarranza84]

This system is a 4 game chase this year goes like this
(40-1)
A: 25-16
B: 10-6
C: 4-2
D: 1-1

I first started in a 3 game chase but in order of perfection I just added another game chase..

The system is fading a team that scored less than 80 pts in a game
today we avoided the Fading Atlanta Hawks because they are playing against the Cavaliers that also scored less than 80 pts yesterday,

Any questions I will be glad to answer

[Speedy88]

wait what.....136-3??? Can I see any evidence of this all time great capping record?

[patocarranza84]

Is this a 3-game chase or a 4-game chase? Are you playing ML or spread? If you're playing spread, are you buying any points?

You claim a record of 136-3. How is that record counted? What is the criteria for a play in your system?

You alway play the spread, with no need to buy points, so all the times you will be chasing a -110 bet..

[LOL]

plz explain more.
you are doubling your betsize after a lose or what? And doubling a total of 4 times and if you lose its a lost bet?

[patocarranza84]

You always have to double in order to be up 1 unit
I always play
Abet 1.1units
B bet 2.3units
C bet 4.8 units
D bet 8.9 units

If you lose a D bet you will be loosing around 17 units
This year we are about +23.00 units

[Riceboi]

plz explain more. you are doubling your betsize after a lose or what? And doubling a total of 4 times and if you lose its a lost bet?

yeah that's the basics of a chase system. some use different money management instead of just doubling up.

[Wallco99]

I am not vouching for this system at all, however, he presented this system in the JM/Chase 110 thread, and we asked him to start his own thread. Before he did, I ran a backtest of this system for the 2010-11 season, the results for a four game chase, fading a team after failing to score 80 points, was 96-2, this I can vouch for. He claims it is 40-0 so far this year, however, I have not tested this season. The 2010-11 season produced +59.12 units, the bet strategy I proposed would have produced +126 units (thelimit0310 5/7 strategy), and +110 units for another method I suggested ( Wallco 1/3/5 method). I already mentioned these in the JM thread, so I will not post it again.
Pato, you were asking some advice on how to do this, and as I promised, I will answer. For starers, be more accurate with your data. Stop using words like "about" and "around" when talking about system record and units of profit. Do your homework and have ACCURATE results. I have been running 4 game chases for a while, so I know how much losses cost. A four game chase is -18.44 units, not "about 17 units" as you put it. A 40-1 chase record will yeild +21.56 units, not +23 units as you put it. This is what I mean by accurate data, because if you are already off by 2 units, it is only a matter of time before you are 10-20 units off in your math. If you want people to follow, be consistent.
Second, by the rules you stated, both Atlanta and Cleveland should have been plays today since neither team scored 80 points yesterday, regardless of the fact that they are playing each other. You can not pick and choose which games make it and which games don't based on your personal opinions of who has a tougher schedule. The way you should have handled today's game would have been to skip both (A) bets, and pick up the losing team on their (B) bet for the normal cost of a (B) bet, this would have yeilded a +2 unit profit if that team would have won their (B), which is equal to two teams winning 1 unit.
Third, never post a system and claim it as great until you have tested at least 7-10 seasons for accuracy. You based your whole theory on this season's stats, and if I didn't do a back test for last season for you, you wouldn't have even known those results, yet you use my results in your thread name. You need to do your own homework.
I will not play this system until I have finished my 10 year backtest, of which I have already completed three seasons. Good or bad, I will not be sharing any more of the results I have come up with, this is the job of your thread runner. I will say that the way he has laid it out is definitely not the best and most profitable way to play this system, I have found a much better way. But since this is not my system, I will not put down the way it is being played. Good luck Pato, I wish you great success.

[Wallco99]

I also have a very strong feeling that this is pwireless's new account name, and if it is, be assured, I will persecute you as I did in your other thread. If not, then welcome to SBR.

[peeiempee]

My data was different from Wallco's...slightly. I got 85-2-1 for 2010-2011 season. The one being a Push on Milwakee. If the line was moved by 0.5 at different books, it would have been a loss for the system. 85-2 would yield +48.12 units. Let's say fading Milwakee lost by half pt. This would still give +29.68. Losses were from Portland and Orlando.

[peeiempee]

My main point with any chase system is make sure you can afford the chase. I will check out previous years. But this is very similar to the shutout system in bases which I think did pretty good last year.

[Wallco99]

You missed a bunch and there are no pushes. I did it twice, with same results. A couple of times a team that was being chased didn't score 80 during the chase, I started a new chase at that point, because that is how I would play it. It didn't happen 10 times though, you missed some games somewhere, and a push just goes to the next bet, unless you are playing by a JM bullshit filter.

[Riceboi]

I am not vouching for this system at all, however, he presented this system in the JM/Chase 110 thread, and we asked him to start his own thread. Before he did, I ran a backtest of this system for the 2010-11 season, the results for a four game chase, fading a team after failing to score 80 points, was 96-2, this I can vouch for. He claims it is 40-0 so far this year, however, I have not tested this season. The 2010-11 season produced +59.12 units, the bet strategy I proposed would have produced +126 units (thelimit0310 5/7 strategy), and +110 units for another method I suggested ( Wallco 1/3/5 method). I already mentioned these in the JM thread, so I will not post it again.
Pato, you were asking some advice on how to do this, and as I promised, I will answer. For starers, be more accurate with your data. Stop using words like "about" and "around" when talking about system record and units of profit. Do your homework and have ACCURATE results. I have been running 4 game chases for a while, so I know how much losses cost. A four game chase is -18.44 units, not "about 17 units" as you put it. A 40-1 chase record will yeild +21.56 units, not +23 units as you put it. This is what I mean by accurate data, because if you are already off by 2 units, it is only a matter of time before you are 10-20 units off in your math. If you want people to follow, be consistent.
Second, by the rules you stated, both Atlanta and Cleveland should have been plays today since neither team scored 80 points yesterday, regardless of the fact that they are playing each other. You can not pick and choose which games make it and which games don't based on your personal opinions of who has a tougher schedule. The way you should have handled today's game would have been to skip both (A) bets, and pick up the losing team on their (B) bet for the normal cost of a (B) bet, this would have yeilded a +2 unit profit if that team would have won their (B), which is equal to two teams winning 1 unit.
Third, never post a system and claim it as great until you have tested at least 7-10 seasons for accuracy. You based your whole theory on this season's stats, and if I didn't do a back test for last season for you, you wouldn't have even known those results, yet you use my results in your thread name. You need to do your own homework.
I will not play this system until I have finished my 10 year backtest, of which I have already completed three seasons. Good or bad, I will not be sharing any more of the results I have come up with, this is the job of your thread runner. I will say that the way he has laid it out is definitely not the best and most profitable way to play this system, I have found a much better way. But since this is not my system, I will not put down the way it is being played. Good luck Pato, I wish you great success.

could you recommend what is the best nba system in your opinion? I would like to start using one that has been backtested many seasons, also can you recommend me a website you use to backtest?

thanks

[dlunc3]

could you recommend what is the best nba system in your opinion? I would like to start using one that has been backtested many seasons, also can you recommend me a website you use to backtest?

thanks

not to speak for wallco....

but i am pretty sure he will recommend his system.. he posts thoroughly over in the JM thread

[Wallco99]

not to speak for wallco....

but i am pretty sure he will recommend his system.. he posts thoroughly over in the JM thread

I don't know, we just took a beating on NYK, what a huge D bet we are in for!

[dlunc3]

I don't know, we just took a beating on NYK, what a huge D bet we are in for!

doesnt matter... just part of the grind...

Long term success is all that matters with these systems. As you saw in mlb, bumps in the road will happen.


before anyone starts tailing this thread, hopefully they see some back test results more then just 1.5 years

[patocarranza84]

Thanks a lot wallco on your advices and recomendations, as you mention I still have lots of homework for this system, lets just hope that this great stats continue for this year anda that they were producting seasons ago, could you tell me where can i check data for past seasons?? Thanks a lot,

[Riceboi]

Thanks a lot wallco on your advices and recomendations, as you mention I still have lots of homework for this system, lets just hope that this great stats continue for this year anda that they were producting seasons ago, could you tell me where can i check data for past seasons?? Thanks a lot,

also looking for a good site to backtest. thanks

[Wallco99]

Thanks a lot wallco on your advices and recomendations, as you mention I still have lots of homework for this system, lets just hope that this great stats continue for this year anda that they were producting seasons ago, could you tell me where can i check data for past seasons?? Thanks a lot,

Covers.com for starters

[manutd19]

Wallco you are the man.

[peeiempee]

You missed a bunch and there are no pushes. I did it twice, with same results. A couple of times a team that was being chased didn't score 80 during the chase, I started a new chase at that point, because that is how I would play it. It didn't happen 10 times though, you missed some games somewhere, and a push just goes to the next bet, unless you are playing by a JM bullshit filter.

I may have missed a bunch but for a chase system it's not about wins, but losses. I also did UNDER 80 not 80 or under. You are right no pushes. After losing to the Heat 78-88 Milwakee pushes -2 and goes on to win 3 in a row. I wrote it as a neutral push because this if the losing line went down and peeps got it at -2.5 that would be a loss. Pushes in a chase system is the difference in this case of 18.44 units. My point is to evaluate a system you want to chase you should error to the losing side, not the winning side because a loss is huge.

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2010-2011/team404011.html

[patocarranza84]

Pato's system
41-1
A: 26-16
B: 10-6
C: 4-2
D: 1-1
Yesterday:
Fade Cle Cavaliers (A) Risk 1.1 units WIN!

Today:
Fade LA Clippers (B) Risk 2.3 units
Fade Bos Celtics (A) Risk 1.1 units
Fade NJ Nets (A) Risk 1.1 units

[Swan4brownlow]

Pato just wondering if you've had any thoughts about what Wallco mentioned with the most profitable way to run this system? I get the feeling it would involve something similar to his 1-3-5 system where he chases the losses and also wins profit. At the moment you're only making a one unit profit. Ideally, because the further into the series you go the better your chance of covering, you'd want to be able to make larger profit from the C and D bets because these should theoretically be your safest bets.

[peeiempee]

2009-2010 Season
70-3 +14.68 units
Loss came with Charlotte 1st game of season, Miwalkee and Portland

[peeiempee]

Portland A bet was a push, went on to won 4 in a row for a loss. Error to the side of losing would be 3 losses for that season.

[Wallco99]

Portland A bet was a push, went on to won 4 in a row for a loss. Error to the side of losing would be 3 losses for that season.

There were 2. Milwaukee pushed their (A) bet so the next bet would be their (A) bet. They won the next three and lost the fourth. The two losses were Portland and Orlando. I am not going to argue with you because I know my data is accurate, I did not count 80 point games, and honestly, I really don't care.

[peeiempee]

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2010-2011/team404011.html
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2010-2011/team404011.html
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2010-2011/team404011.html

Are we looking at different sites? Or is covers just plain wrong?

[peeiempee]

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2009-2010/team403993.html

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2009-2010/team404011.html

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2009-2010/team664421.html

Think I may have posted the wrong link. These are the right ones

[peeiempee]

Orlando not in the equation we talking about two different things. This is the 2009-2010. Not what we we discussing before. Yes, 2 losses by the straight record at closing line for 2010-2011. Yes I agree. I would like to caution everyone who is remotely thing about this system that it MAY be 3 losses depending on line movement during the 2010-2011 season. Half point fluctuation happen all the time between open and closing line. I feel when you evaluate a system you have to look more in detail with pushes, because it can very well be a loss.

[patocarranza84]

This is what i have for
2011-2012
41-1
A: 26-16
B: 10-6
C: 4-2
D: 1-1

2009-2010
72-3
A 33-42
B 16-26
C 15-11
D 8-3

2008-2009
102-4
A 52-54
B 25-29
C 18-11
D 7-4

2007-2008
118-5
A 63-60
B 31-29
C 18-11
D 6-5

How do I calculate the units?