Pato's system (96-2) 2010-2011 (40-1)2011-2012

[COBRA31]

It may explain why he stopped his backtest where he did, I have a feeling that info was known, but not published. Sounds like you are doing it right. This system couldn't be any easier to backtest, so I doubt you made an error.

If you are referring to my backtest...I stopped because I had to go to bed. Will pick back up and complete this weekend.

I'm not sure if you are talking about me or pato ?

[artist]

What's today plays?

[Wallco99]

If you are referring to my backtest...I stopped because I had to go to bed. Will pick back up and complete this weekend.

I'm not sure if you are talking about me or pato ?

Not you, PATO's posted backtest results stop the year before that bad season, don't know why.

[Wallco99]

What's today plays?

I already posted it below, even though it's not my job. You must read more than two posts before asking questions.

[patocarranza84]

Fade Det pistons C plus 1 unit since we skip B bet

[Wallco99]

I doubt I made an error as well, I double checked to make sure both my results and the criteria. If my results are right which they should be, then only 1 of my backtested seasons is profitable. Seems like the system isn't nearly as effective as first thought.

I look forward to your guys' results so we can compare. Getting that results spreadsheet will be nice as well. Maybe we can find a way to turn it around! Just a theory, but maybe starting at a lower number than 80 would work. Someone here posted 67 as the magic number, I hope that person looks into that.

I will be finishing up soon, forward me what you've got so far.

[patocarranza84]

Sorry im out of town can someone handle this until monday than you guys we are pend on fade atlB fade clippersA fadePor A

[Wallco99]

Fade Det pistons C plus 1 unit since we skip B bet

You need to be more clear than that. I know how this shit works and you confused me, some newer people will have no idea what that means, or why you are waiting til 6:30 to post it.

Play Detroit for the amount a normal C bet would cost, since we skipped the B bet. If you are playing 1-1-1-1, then tonights bet will be for 4.41 units. If you are playing 7/5, your bet tonight will be for 12 units, no need to bet the 12.7 as a normal loss would cost, since we had no B bet juice. Why do I feel I am doing more to help your system than you are? And by the looks of it, your backtest may have been cut a little short.

[artist]

I already posted it below, even though it's not my job. You must read more than two posts before asking questions.

I havent been here for a while
My local is closing the line soon,
You don't have to come out rude

[Wallco99]

Sorry im out of town can someone handle this until monday than you guys we are pend on fade atlB fade clippersA fadePor A

Oh my!.

[Wallco99]

I havent been here for a while
My local is closing the line soon,
You don't have to come out rude

Sorry, this whole thread is getting frustrating, and really, I don't know why! And it's actually not rude, it is an epidemic on every thread in this forum. I realize you said you were in a time crunch, but honestly, what takes longer, reading what's already posted, or sitting by your computer constantly hitting refresh hoping someone will post it again. I believe option 2 takes longer. Except for this one instance, when I happened to log in at the same time. Normally questions in this thread go days before they're answered, and with that, we arrive at problem #2.

[artist]

Sac is the play for tonight?

[artist]

I'm on my iPhone a simple
Reply of here's the play for tonight is quicker thanks I will
Read this thread later

Fade Detroit? So imma play saco

[Wallco99]

I'm on my iPhone a simple
Reply of here's the play for tonight is quicker thanks I will
Read this thread later

Fade Detroit? So imma play saco

Yes sir, Sacramento for the amount of a normal C bet. Good luck.

[thelimit0310]

I will be finishing up soon, forward me what you've got so far.

Just sent you a PM with my results. They can also be found on post #204 of the thread. I noted series and their results that would have started from a game ending with exactly 80 points as you requested, but those series are not included in the posted record of each season.

[ClevelandNextYr]

2009-2010 backtest results



Under 80 71-3


A 33-41
B 18-23
C 14-9
D 6-3

Series lost start date
3/26/10 Mil
10/28/09 Char First game of season
03/19/10 Port


Playing games that scored at 80 exactly added these series records

A 7-6
B 2-4
C 1-3
D 1-2

Series lost at 80 pts
12/05/09 ATL
03/03/10 Char


Looks like far fewer games in this season than in the older ones Limit posted. Wallco is this a trend that shows in 2010-2011 with teams scoring more points?

[Wallco99]

I will compose a graph of several bet scenarios and pin it up. Nice work both of you. Is someone doing 2008-09, or should I do that as well?

[Wallco99]

Outside of the fact that Sacramento shit the bed, it's been a rather productive evening.

[Wallco99]

I nominate the ship guy to run the thread. He seemed to have his act together. Sorry for just calling you ship, but I don't feel like scrolling back several pages to locate your last post. But you get my vote, if you want it.

[ClevelandNextYr]

I will compose a graph of several bet scenarios and pin it up. Nice work both of you. Is someone doing 2008-09, or should I do that as well?

Cobra is doing 2008-09

[ClevelandNextYr]

Outside of the fact that Sacramento shit the bed, it's been a rather productive evening.

You are correct except I got stupid and went outside the systems to hammer the over on SJ

[COBRA31]

Cobra is doing 2008-09

Yes...I'm on it. I should have by Sunday if not sooner.

[thelimit0310]

Good work Cleveland and yeah it seems you have half as many series as I did in my seasons. This is why I encouraged Cobra to finish his 2006 backtest as well, just to be sure they match up, because its odd that the # of series varies that much. The results for your season are also much more pleasing than mine were. Very odd indeed.

[ClevelandNextYr]

Limit It looks like in your tests when a game pushed you treated it like a loss and moved on to the next bet. ex. in 04-05 season you list

A:70-73-3
B: 33-42-1

Thats 76 B bets. In Wallcos post with the guidelines he writes this:
Don't forget, all games are ATS, this is a four game chase, skip game that are pushes, and treat them as if the game was never played, unless it is the game that qualifies the team for a play, then use it.

I took this to mean when a team plays their next game after a push to keep the game at the same level thus treating it as if it was never played. It appears to me you counted the push and moved to the next level. Am I looking at this correctly or was I incorrect in my interpretation? Those added free games may help the results. Wallco Thoughts?

[thelimit0310]

Good catch Cleveland, you're correct. Though I did not treat a push as a loss I did play the game afterwords at the next bet level ie if an A bet pushed I counted the 2nd game as still a B bet. I guess that skews my results a little bit. I knew something wasn't right. Though really I don't recall any series losses becoming wins using this way of play either. In fact I noted to myself that only once in my entire backtest did a loss happen that pushed on an earlier level. It's possible that loss could become a win, but that's only 1 loss of 3 seasons. Still I suppose it's worth rechecking. When I find more time I can go back into 2004-5 and 2005-6, and just let Cobra do 2006-7, since he was on it already.

[TripleDDD]

Would labbying this system be as effective rather than martingale?

[Wallco99]

Limit It looks like in your tests when a game pushed you treated it like a loss and moved on to the next bet. ex. in 04-05 season you list

A:70-73-3
B: 33-42-1

Thats 76 B bets. In Wallcos post with the guidelines he writes this:
Don't forget, all games are ATS, this is a four game chase, skip game that are pushes, and treat them as if the game was never played, unless it is the game that qualifies the team for a play, then use it.

I took this to mean when a team plays their next game after a push to keep the game at the same level thus treating it as if it was never played. It appears to me you counted the push and moved to the next level. Am I looking at this correctly or was I incorrect in my interpretation? Those added free games may help the results. Wallco Thoughts?

You are correct, replay the same bet level. It's like getting 5 games for that chase instead of 4. It only happens a couple times a year, I don't know why he would have half as many bets as you as he said, I have to look through all data you guys sent.

[Wallco99]

Would labbying this system be as effective rather than martingale?

If I say "Yes", can we end it there?

[COBRA31]

Good catch Cleveland, you're correct. Though I did not treat a push as a loss I did play the game afterwords at the next bet level ie if an A bet pushed I counted the 2nd game as still a B bet. I guess that skews my results a little bit. I knew something wasn't right. Though really I don't recall any series losses becoming wins using this way of play either. In fact I noted to myself that only once in my entire backtest did a loss happen that pushed on an earlier level. It's possible that loss could become a win, but that's only 1 loss of 3 seasons. Still I suppose it's worth rechecking. When I find more time I can go back into 2004-5 and 2005-6, and just let Cobra do 2006-7, since he was on it already.

I jumped off 2006-07 to complete 2008-09. I'm over half way thru....I'll go back and complete so we can cross check.

[casdio]

Tonight we have:
Fade Atlanta (B bet)
Fade Portland (A bet)
Fade Clippers (A bet)

Atlanta will play against Portland. @Walco: what do we do? I don't play the A bets. So, shall I fade Atlanta on their B bet or shall I skip Atlanta and follow the one that loses their bet?

[dlunc3]

Hey Wallco and thelimit... I know you guys are always looking out for moneymaking systems. I have come across a new one on another thread here on SBR a few weeks back. It has been cashing basically every night. Its not a chase system like you guys normally play, rather its just a flat bet system... but the results seem to be unreal. It is more difficult to backtest then some of these other systems, but I think it would definitely be worth it. Based on a two yr backtest, its hitting approx. 70% on just flat betting (which you know is crazy!). I still plan to backtest 5+ years when I get a free minute, but for now I have just been playing it based on its recent results... you should check it out:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/1548879-lunts-4q-betting-system.html

So far this season it is 76-26 ATS (74.5 %), and last year it was 131-65-6 ATS (66.8%).

It is a tough system to follow bc all of the bets have to be placed live and within a 5 minute window... but if its gonna hit close to 70%, its well worth it to me to stay alert for when these occasions arise...

You should check it out and see what you think.

[imotiv8]

looking good

[ClevelandNextYr]

Tonight we have:
Fade Atlanta (B bet)
Fade Portland (A bet)
Fade Clippers (A bet)

Atlanta will play against Portland. @Walco: what do we do? I don't play the A bets. So, shall I fade Atlanta on their B bet or shall I skip Atlanta and follow the one that loses their bet?

Fade Atl on B bet. Always play the bigger bet.

[thelimit0310]

Hey Wallco and thelimit... I know you guys are always looking out for moneymaking systems. I have come across a new one on another thread here on SBR a few weeks back. It has been cashing basically every night. Its not a chase system like you guys normally play, rather its just a flat bet system... but the results seem to be unreal. It is more difficult to backtest then some of these other systems, but I think it would definitely be worth it. Based on a two yr backtest, its hitting approx. 70% on just flat betting (which you know is crazy!). I still plan to backtest 5+ years when I get a free minute, but for now I have just been playing it based on its recent results... you should check it out:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/1548879-lunts-4q-betting-system.html

So far this season it is 76-26 ATS (74.5 %), and last year it was 131-65-6 ATS (66.8%).

It is a tough system to follow bc all of the bets have to be placed live and within a 5 minute window... but if its gonna hit close to 70%, its well worth it to me to stay alert for when these occasions arise...

You should check it out and see what you think.

Looks great and if its tried and true through the years it would be an awesome supplement to JM or whatever else. Unfortunately between Pato's backtest and an MLB backtest I'm working on I don't really have the time to go back for that system. Still I am very interested in the results of that system, if you can get the results for another few years please let me know!!!

[casdio]

Fade Atl on B bet. Always play the bigger bet.

ok, ty