Eurobaske Lithuania 2011

[JBT]

What do you think of Slovenia - Finland match? Slovenia has been such a disappointment lately... unbelievably bad and unorganized basketball. These guys are better than that, but they've been downright horrendous lately and I'm not sure what can be expected of them in the Finland match. Are they going to once again shit their pants, or are they going to blow them out of the water, which they are more than capable of doing on a good day? I'd like to earn back some money I lost betting on them, but I'm afraid that the first time I go against them, they're gonna win And if I do go with them and they lose, then I'm only gonna feel that much more stupid for going with them yet again after they've burned me already so many time before.

[bleek88]

What do you think of Slovenia - Finland match? Slovenia has been such a disappointment lately... unbelievably bad and unorganized basketball. These guys are better than that, but they've been downright horrendous lately and I'm not sure what can be expected of them in the Finland match. Are they going to once again shit their pants, or are they going to blow them out of the water, which they are more than capable of doing on a good day? I'd like to earn back some money I lost betting on them, but I'm afraid that the first time I go against them, they're gonna win And if I do go with them and they lose, then I'm only gonna feel that much more stupid for going with them yet again after they've burned me already so many time before.

You shouldn't be guessing.

[JBT]

You shouldn't be guessing.

You can't tell with this team anymore... all I can do is chase based on their potential. You saying I should not chase thinking they surely cannot lose another one? If they can get their shit together, they can definitely beat Finland... but the questions is, WILL THEY get their shit together?

[tullamore21]

1. France :4/0
2. Spain : 3/1
3. Lithuania : 2/2
4. Turkey :1/3
5. Serbia : 1/3
6. Germany 1/3

Let's see...
4 teams will advance. There is a game left. The same coloured teams play against each other. If Lithuania wins Germany, they advance to the next phase as third. If they lose there will be a triple tie and a possible early elimination for the hosts.
The Germans do whatever they can to be part of pre-Olympics tournament next summer and they will drain their chances to make it. Does anyone at this thread believe that the Brave Germans can do it tomorrow?
I give a 10% to watch an upset here.
Lithuania plays at home. Lithuania is better and has depth at its bench, while Germany needs except for Dirk's points, many threes to stay at the game.
Lithuanians cannot throw bricks as yesterday. They will be around 45% hitting about 10 or more 3pointers. Germany allows shots and so does Lithuania's defense. I am saying that this will might be close till 25th minute. After that, the hosts will dominate and secure a double digit margin.
I know this is kinda risky, in a game that the team will be so f@cking nervous...
plus the fact the Germany is maybe the best ATS team at the tourney.
so normal bet for me.


Lithuania vs Germany
pick Lithuania -7,5 to demolish the panchers



Also...

I will parlay
Lithuania ML with Serbia ML,in order to double my money.

i am adding this as "one-play"
Serbia ML
Lithuania ML

Good Luck backers

[tullamore21]

You can't tell with this team anymore... all I can do is chase based on their potential. You saying I should not chase thinking they surely cannot lose another one? If they can get their shit together, they can definitely beat Finland... but the questions is, WILL THEY get their shit together?

Absolutely right. Slovenia is by far better than Finland. Not even close. Slovenia is the team tha lost by Russia at the last possesion. They are not so bad as it seems right now. But even with that in mind, i cannot bet on a game like that.
I might put some units at Over at this game. Finland has energy and like to run the game. Slovenia can follow, but they cannot hit anything beyond the arc. Down 30% at the tournamnet is just pathetic, you know.
Anyway, this will take place on Monday. We have time to think of that game.

[tullamore21]

Good Luck guys.
I hope to hit this one.
I won't be around tomorrow, so i will post again during Lithuania-Germany game.
Good evening

[JBT]

Good luck tomorrow, I think your parlay is safe.

I also think there's some value in France +230. I think Noah can take care of the Gasols better than their previous opponents could so far and Parker can do his magic inside.

[cro]

france - spain over 150

[tullamore21]

my read was really bad. Germans were closer than i was expecting. The final 84-75 is notional, not true.
Anyway, i take it...

[tullamore21]

1. France :4/0
2. Spain : 3/1
3. Lithuania : 2/2
4. Turkey :1/3
5. Serbia : 1/3
6. Germany 1/3

Let's see...
4 teams will advance. There is a game left. The same coloured teams play against each other. If Lithuania wins Germany, they advance to the next phase as third. If they lose there will be a triple tie and a possible early elimination for the hosts.
The Germans do whatever they can to be part of pre-Olympics tournament next summer and they will drain their chances to make it. Does anyone at this thread believe that the Brave Germans can do it tomorrow?
I give a 10% to watch an upset here.
Lithuania plays at home. Lithuania is better and has depth at its bench, while Germany needs except for Dirk's points, many threes to stay at the game.
Lithuanians cannot throw bricks as yesterday. They will be around 45% hitting about 10 or more 3pointers. Germany allows shots and so does Lithuania's defense. I am saying that this will might be close till 25th minute. After that, the hosts will dominate and secure a double digit margin.
I know this is kinda risky, in a game that the team will be so f@cking nervous...
plus the fact the Germany is maybe the best ATS team at the tourney.
so normal bet for me.


Lithuania vs Germany
pick Lithuania -7,5 (84-75) to demolish the panchers



Also...

I will parlay
Lithuania ML with Serbia ML,in order to double my money.

i am adding this as "one-play"
Serbia ML (68-67)
Lithuania ML (84-75)

Good Luck backers

current record 12-10-0

[JBT]

Great day, congrats! Any thoughts about tomorrow?

How about Finland +8? I think Slovenia is morally deflated... They might win, but I doubt they're going to step their game up enough to blow Finland out by double digits or they would've already done it against Macedonia.

[tullamore21]

Great day, congrats! Any thoughts about tomorrow? How about Finland +8? I think Slovenia is morally deflated... They might win, but I doubt they're going to step their game up enough to blow Finland out by double digits or they would've already done it against Macedonia.

i was thinking not to touch it. I don't know yet. I give a point to Finland to make it.

[tullamore21]

Russia vs FYROM
pick Russia -8,5

No doubt that Russia wins here, but i will try the spread, as i expect a 15+ point game. FYROM is nothing more than average as a team and it would not have made more than a victory if it had been placed at the other group. Russia is the best and despite the sensational McCalebb's performances, the Balkanians cannot face Russian Bear.

This must end around 15. I guess the Russians will turn the ball over many times, as usual, but hopefully overcome this factor to cover.
If McCalebb stays down 25 points, Russia covers for sure. I expect 58-63 points for FYROM and 70+ for Russia.

Good Luck

[tullamore21]

if anyone wants, you can find me at twitter, as here. I post my picks there too.

[Ingram$]

tullamore, where will you tweets?

[tullamore21]

@tullamore21

[tullamore21]

Russia doesn't play defense tonight. 34 points for FYROM at the half are too many.

[MrSink]

60pts FT...
not too much i guess

[tullamore21]

Russia vs FYROM
pick Russia -8,5 (63-61)

No doubt that Russia wins here, but i will try the spread, as i expect a 15+ point game. FYROM is nothing more than average as a team and it would not have made more than a victory if it had been placed at the other group. Russia is the best and despite the sensational McCalebb's performances, the Balkanians cannot face Russian Bear.

This must end around 15. I guess the Russians will turn the ball over many times, as usual, but hopefully overcome this factor to cover.
If McCalebb stays down 25 points, Russia covers for sure. I expect 58-63 points for FYROM and 70+ for Russia.

Good Luck

As happened yesterday, my call was bad. I might start considering of FYROM as a good team... They lost at the last shot.
Anyway.
Good night all.

Current record 12-11-0

[tullamore21]

6,5 points has given to Greece against France. I was expecting 8,5 to be honest, but it's ok. i will take this...

[tullamore21]

EARLY THOUGHTS
FRANCE vs GREECE

France didn't appear on the court at its last game, prefering to pick Greece at the Quarterfinal's... No no no...
This is not true.
France lost from Spain and didn't fight it at all, in order to avoid playing against Lithuania or Spain at the Semis. Of course there is the game against Greece first, but this should not be as tough as previous meetings, while Greeks had 13 victories in a row, before De Colo giving an end with his last shot 2 years ago. A shot that lead Greece to the Bronze Medal and France to the elimination by Spain...
Greece is the worst daemon of France at recent years. Is is kind of complex syndrome, but this time they have the opportunity to smash their opponents.
Greece can slow down the French to 70-74 points, but the real problem is on the other side of the court. Offense. This is the thing that needs a solution. There are 2 days for shooting around. This should be the main concern of Greece's staff. Shooting and shooting beyond 6,75 to improve and raise their chances to steal the game.
Inside game cannot works here, indeed. French have the size and will utilize it offensively, even though Greece is a good rebounding and blocking team. Greece can defend and use Zonal marking, maybe Box and One, with Calathes chasing Tony Parker, but still Parker is quicker and explosive enough to destroy the Zone and attack to the rim, easily.
Greece has to risk and i will do this, by offering wide open 3 pointers to their opponents. France is a team that takes 11-12 three-point shots per game, hitting 4.

Any thoughts?

[JBT]

Just keep in mind that when France lost so badly against Spain, Noah and Parker were not playing. Other than that, I think it really depends on the daily form... Obviously both teams will be giving it their everything, so motivation should not be a factor, but I would feel much better about 8,5 due to the possibility of fouling in the last seconds, which can bring a 3 point deficit quickly to 7 or more.

Not sure how much that big loss hurt the self esteem of the players who were playing though. That might be the single one thing to either make or break your bet...

[Defuzas]

I think this will be tough game, but France should make it.

[tullamore21]

Lithuania ML
France ML

if those don't hit, then the books will destroy public

[bleek88]

the books will destroy the public..

[JBT]

You're paying -400?? Or is that a parlay?

[tullamore21]

the books will destroy the public..

first of all, i want to say that i am Greek. So i have a clear view of the team's potential. I give 10% for an upset at that game.
Do you think FYROM can win Lithuania?

You're paying -400?? Or is that a parlay?

I have already said that this tourney is France for me. When i was capping the tournament i bet on France to reach the Semis, because i was expecting to face Lithuania or Spain there. The "project" works till now and i have the opportunity to trade that pick, but this is another discussion.

When i make a pick, i will post it as a pick, even if this will be a parlay.
I haven't bet anything yet and i lost -6.5 on France. Now the spread is -7.

i cannot see how Greece and FYROM could upset their opponents. But who knows...

What about Spain -14,5 tomorrow? They usually don't cover against weaker teams. I feel like this is the time, they will do it.

[JBT]

They beat France by like 30, now they're -14.5 against a struggling Slovenia... I think that's a pretty obvious public play.

[tullamore21]

They beat France by like 30, now they're -14.5 against a struggling Slovenia... I think that's a pretty obvious public play.

The thing that they play with engine off at those games ( low potential teams) makes this game No bet, at the moment.
I don't think i will touch it at all.

[bleek88]

get dat paper baby cant wait until Friday ATL vs CON gonna be a dandy

[tullamore21]

get dat paper baby cant wait until Friday ATL vs CON gonna be a dandy

haha...
ATL or CON?

[tullamore21]

Two games today at Eurobasket.

The Stage of Quarterfinals has come and now there is no way to fix any mistakes. Spain against Slovenia tonight and Lithuania against FYROM.

No reason to analyse any of those two. We have seen the teams, we know the way they play, their weaknesses and their weapons.

Spain is on -15,5 right now at the most books and it is more than acceptable, considering the two sides. Slovenia is the weakest team of this stage and it will try to stand up against the supersonic Spanish team. Gasol Bros and their company don't usually cover the spread, when facing weak opponents, but they destroy the other "big" teams.

Approaching closer this mathcup, there is no doubt that the margin will be as huge as the Iberians want to be. They will secure the victory early in the game and there will be rotation today. I expect 25-30 minutes of quality basketball and a 18-25 final margin.

Spain vs Slovenia
pick Spain -15,5

Later tonight, there is home team's game. Lithuania will drop FYROM down. There won't be an upset here, not only because Lithuania is the better team, but for other reasons too. The thing is, if they can cover 9,5 points.

McCalebb and Ilievsky are great and have some decent performances. They also have big guys that can threaten from distance, like Antic. As i have already said, FYROM is nothiing special than an average team, but they are smart and can conform at any case. Their Zonal Marking was so effective against Russia and they almost won that game. The fate led them towards Lithuania and now there is a mountain to climb...

The Lithuanians have to play a good game, which will give them extra boost against the Semifinal, where Spain will wait for them. I think they will punish FYROM tonight. I add the fact, that they haven't had a decent attacking game after the one against Serbia. It is the time to hit 10 or more threes...
Come on guys, don't let me down!!

Lithuania vs FYROM
pick Lithuania -9.5

[tullamore21]

adding a pick

Spain vs Slovenia
pick Spain -8 first half

[JBT]

I like Serbia to beat Russia. I love it actually... Thoughts?

[tullamore21]

I like Serbia to beat Russia. I love it actually... Thoughts?

Serbia has guards and point guards, that Russia doesn't. Russia's power is its size and the good Big men.
I will check it later. Do you think Teodocic will make a nice game finally? He is too arrogant in my opinion, i cannot trust him usualy, but i might do it tomorrow.