LTA's NBA Plays

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  • Intwoition
    SBR High Roller
    • 02-07-12
    • 142

    #9731
    You are correct, there can be some match-up information drawn out - as we speak it looks as though Detroit may cover. You def. understand what is important and what isn't. Most of the pubic does not - they will look at team A beat team B by 9 pts, and 10 pts, and think an appropriate spread is 9.5. Which may be true, or it may not be.

    As for the coins - it wasn't to demonstrate that past results are not indicative of future ones (as it is usually used), but rather, to show that there are many factors to consider - and the past 2 or 3 games rank rather low on that list.
    Comment
    • Love The Action
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-08-10
      • 10952

      #9732
      Originally posted by No coincidences
      So with that being said, given the results of the first two meetings between these two teams, shouldn't the books be "skewing" the number in Detroit's favor and not in Atlanta's knowing that the public would bite on the supposed inferior team?


      They did. Earlier in the season, the books were valuing Atlanta as -12 favorites at home. After the previous results, the books set this game in the -8.5 to -9 range. That's a 3 point-ish adjustment in favor of Detroit based on the previous results. My model said that adjustment was about 1.5 points too much of an adjustment as fair line based on the stats is about -10. With all that said, a game is 4 quarters and Atlanta just blew a 10 point lead heading into the 4th quarter.
      Comment
      • No coincidences
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-18-10
        • 76300

        #9733
        Originally posted by Love The Action


        They did. Earlier in the season, the books were valuing Atlanta as -12 favorites at home. After the previous results, the books set this game in the -8.5 to -9 range. That's a 3 point-ish adjustment in favor of Detroit based on the previous results. My model said that adjustment was about 1.5 points too much of an adjustment as fair line based on the stats is about -10. With all that said, a game is 4 quarters and Atlanta just blew a 10 point lead heading into the 4th quarter.
        I don't see how that's possible. You really think the "fair" line should have been Detroit +10 here?

        Who cares about earlier in the season? Atlanta is all over the map and Detroit is markedly better from November/December. Combine that with two very competitive prior games between these two teams and I just personally saw the line being too high. Agree to disagree I guess. Pistons will still probably find a way to blow the cover in the last minute -- that's what they do best.
        Comment
        • alamo
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 02-21-09
          • 7131

          #9734
          Nice call in Miami game LTA. Looks like a split night unless your planning a late play ?
          Comment
          • ses_d
            SBR MVP
            • 04-06-12
            • 1248

            #9735
            nice hit on the Heat game. LTA FTW
            Comment
            • Love The Action
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-08-10
              • 10952

              #9736
              Originally posted by No coincidences
              I don't see how that's possible. You really think the "fair" line should have been Detroit +10 here?

              Who cares about earlier in the season? Atlanta is all over the map and Detroit is markedly better from November/December. Combine that with two very competitive prior games between these two teams and I just personally saw the line being too high. Agree to disagree I guess. Pistons will still probably find a way to blow the cover in the last minute -- that's what they do best.
              What I think doesn't matter. You are missing the point.

              My model just uses stats and math. Cold hard calculations without any human element. Based on the stats alone, my model says Atlanta should win this game by 10. After that calculation is made, then you have to factor all the situational or qualitative stuff into the equation. Personally, while the past result was considered, I thought the Detroit fatigue would help the Hawks. Instead, Atlanta blew a 10 point lead in the 4th. That's just the risk you take when backing the bipolar hawks.
              Comment
              • blackgolden
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 02-11-12
                • 768

                #9737
                welldone on heat under
                thanks LTA
                Comment
                • Love The Action
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-08-10
                  • 10952

                  #9738
                  NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season Recap 4/6/2012

                  1 - 1 = -0.1x

                  NBA 2011-2012 Season

                  125 - 111 = +8.15x

                  Good luck on Saturday.
                  Comment
                  • Love The Action
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 11-08-10
                    • 10952

                    #9739
                    NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 4/7/2012

                    Play #1

                    Trail Blazers/Bucks over (203) 1x (Locked)

                    My local opened up at 203 with most outlets at 203 or 203.5 as I type. I'm jumping on this now because I think it hits 204 by morning. No time for a writeup with all the NBA and MLB games to cap, but I have this game set at 206 giving us a full three points of value and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
                    Comment
                    • lucky cat
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 11-16-09
                      • 138

                      #9740
                      Originally posted by Love The Action
                      NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 4/7/2012

                      Play #1

                      Trail Blazers/Bucks over (203) 1x (Locked)

                      My local opened up at 203 with most outlets at 203 or 203.5 as I type. I'm jumping on this now because I think it hits 204 by morning. No time for a writeup with all the NBA and MLB games to cap, but I have this game set at 206 giving us a full three points of value and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
                      Good luck to you too ,sir.
                      But I see line start 204 then 205 then down to 203.5
                      Comment
                      • bmansell33
                        SBR MVP
                        • 09-28-11
                        • 1048

                        #9741
                        My local. Opened 205
                        Comment
                        • dmitean
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 03-30-11
                          • 364

                          #9742
                          Great work on the Under in Miami LTA! I'm on a bad run right now, so just hoping to turn things around soon.

                          Love the Over in Milwaukee, though not sure it's good news for you
                          BOL!
                          Comment
                          • Love The Action
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 11-08-10
                            • 10952

                            #9743
                            Originally posted by lucky cat
                            Good luck to you too ,sir.
                            But I see line start 204 then 205 then down to 203.5
                            Are you using SBR odds or a paid line service. SBR odds is not updating right now as it shows 204.5 for this game. However, if you have a paid service like SI -- or just go to one of the following book's website -- you will see 5 dimes, Heritage, Pinny, Betonline and Bet US just to name a few are at 203.5 right now. Those books opened at 204.5 and came down to 203.5. My local opened up at 203 and went up to 203.5 now.
                            Comment
                            • Love The Action
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 11-08-10
                              • 10952

                              #9744
                              Guys, I think I am going to take some time off from SBR or at least from posting plays with writeups. Now that baseball is here and my son is getting older, I just don't see any value in continuing to spend so much time on SBR. I have too much going on in my life to keep posting. Today, my wife was asking me as we were driving home from dinner why I spend so much time on SBR. To be honest, I really didn't have a good answer. I've been posting my plays daily for over year. I feel like I have shared a ton of my knowledge and helped a lot of people out. I just don't know how much longer I can do this. It's not fair to me or my family to keep wasting so much time on here. I need to reevaluate some things. Might be time to wind down my threads.....it used to be a lot of fun, but now it seems more like a job. Ugh....
                              Comment
                              • lucky cat
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 11-16-09
                                • 138

                                #9745
                                Originally posted by Love The Action
                                Are you using SBR odds or a paid line service. SBR odds is not updating right now as it shows 204.5 for this game. However, if you have a paid service like SI -- or just go to one of the following book's website -- you will see 5 dimes, Heritage, Pinny, Betonline and Bet US just to name a few are at 203.5 right now. Those books opened at 204.5 and came down to 203.5. My local opened up at 203 and went up to 203.5 now.
                                Thank you for your help.I am using the Scores and Odds.com
                                Comment
                                • ronnieseah
                                  SBR Rookie
                                  • 03-11-12
                                  • 47

                                  #9746
                                  The answer should be
                                  STAY IN THE KITCHEN AND MAKE ME A SANDWICH

                                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                                  Today, my wife was asking me as we were driving home from dinner why I spend so much time on SBR. To be honest, I really didn't have a good answer.
                                  Comment
                                  • Child's Play
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 01-17-12
                                    • 101

                                    #9747
                                    Lmao... I get the same question tho - and I barely even post. But Gluck with whatever u do

                                    Originally posted by ronnieseah
                                    The answer should be
                                    STAY IN THE KITCHEN AND MAKE ME A SANDWICH
                                    Comment
                                    • dude_bg
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 09-01-10
                                      • 376

                                      #9748
                                      Well LTA, thanks for the contribution ! Family comes first, so if you decide to not post here anymore, most people should understand. If they don't. well... it is not like you owe anything to them
                                      Comment
                                      • Les_Nuts
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 02-01-12
                                        • 931

                                        #9749
                                        BOL LTA, you definitely deserve a break, we all appreciate your hard work in NBA and MLB
                                        Comment
                                        • parlayin
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-03-07
                                          • 1091

                                          #9750
                                          LTA, thanks for posting your plays and writeups with such consistency while avoiding all the nonsense. you've been a great asset to the forums and good luck with your family.
                                          Comment
                                          • aussieH
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-04-11
                                            • 1188

                                            #9751
                                            Lta thanks for all the plays. Sbr will not be the same without you however Family first though buddy.

                                            Was looking forward to a big nba finals from you though.
                                            Comment
                                            • alamo
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 02-21-09
                                              • 7131

                                              #9752
                                              Understand fully LTA. Personally I think you spend too much time answering stupid questions when they really ought to b just ignored. Hope you continue to chime in occasionally as you are the most consistent winning poster I have ever seen. Take it easy bud!
                                              Comment
                                              • karajohn13
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 02-03-12
                                                • 149

                                                #9753
                                                Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                Guys, I think I am going to take some time off from SBR or at least from posting plays with writeups. Now that baseball is here and my son is getting older, I just don't see any value in continuing to spend so much time on SBR. I have too much going on in my life to keep posting. Today, my wife was asking me as we were driving home from dinner why I spend so much time on SBR. To be honest, I really didn't have a good answer. I've been posting my plays daily for over year. I feel like I have shared a ton of my knowledge and helped a lot of people out. I just don't know how much longer I can do this. It's not fair to me or my family to keep wasting so much time on here. I need to reevaluate some things. Might be time to wind down my threads.....it used to be a lot of fun, but now it seems more like a job. Ugh....
                                                Absolutely respect to your family and personal life. Wish you change your mind and decide to ignore all the comments of people who believe that like a boss you MUST give them sure money every day. Whatever your decision is, best of luck to you and your family
                                                Comment
                                                • TC Woods
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-17-11
                                                  • 1780

                                                  #9754
                                                  Originally posted by alamo
                                                  Understand fully LTA. Personally I think you spend too much time answering stupid questions when they really ought to b just ignored. Hope you continue to chime in occasionally as you are the most consistent winning poster I have ever seen. Take it easy bud!
                                                  Agree with that....

                                                  Maybe you could reduce your time to just posting your plays and not the extensive writeups, don't respond to any posts.

                                                  Just a thought, whatever you decide, GL. You definitely helped me a lot!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • MrXYZ
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 02-18-11
                                                    • 2342

                                                    #9755
                                                    Thanks for posting your plays LTA. I've learnt a lot & was also inspired to start my own NBL (aussie basketball) thread which
                                                    enjoyed a profitable year.

                                                    As other posters have said, family is the most important thing & taking a break from sbr is a good idea. Sports betting is enough of a grind without having to deal with people expecting you to post winners for them day in,day out.

                                                    Also, I set aside some funds at the start of the season for NBA betting. With the help of your plays I made enough money to pay for a holiday to South America. How cool is that! Thanks again!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • meader99
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 10-30-10
                                                      • 4223

                                                      #9756
                                                      Originally posted by TC Woods
                                                      Agree with that....

                                                      Maybe you could reduce your time to just posting your plays and not the extensive writeups, don't respond to any posts.

                                                      Just a thought, whatever you decide, GL. You definitely helped me a lot!
                                                      I thought this too after reading his post. Not sure if LTA is wired to just release picks without his write-ups. Sometimes he does when he's short on time, but more often than not he provides pretty thorough write-ups. I wish you the best of luck in whatever you decide. Happy wife, happy life??????
                                                      Comment
                                                      • migz
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-11-10
                                                        • 1160

                                                        #9757
                                                        Continue til playoffs, man. That's where you excel. Just like last year's playoffs. Let's make a killing LTA!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • pacocn
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 07-05-10
                                                          • 12934

                                                          #9758
                                                          Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                          Guys, I think I am going to take some time off from SBR or at least from posting plays with writeups. Now that baseball is here and my son is getting older, I just don't see any value in continuing to spend so much time on SBR. I have too much going on in my life to keep posting. Today, my wife was asking me as we were driving home from dinner why I spend so much time on SBR. To be honest, I really didn't have a good answer. I've been posting my plays daily for over year. I feel like I have shared a ton of my knowledge and helped a lot of people out. I just don't know how much longer I can do this. It's not fair to me or my family to keep wasting so much time on here. I need to reevaluate some things. Might be time to wind down my threads.....it used to be a lot of fun, but now it seems more like a job. Ugh....
                                                          Lta, since i am a father also of a 8yr. old, i was wondering how you had so much time to write so many in depth write ups, cap, work, and be a father, we all know what the most important job is. I think you are making a wise decision, and i thank you for all the information you have shared with all of us. I hope you continue to post some plays and i think i speak for all of us that when you post a play we will all know you have done your due dillegence in preparation to post. You are a class act and i thank you for all your efforts. Family first!!!!! Get em champ!!!!!!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Pross1
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 02-03-12
                                                            • 136

                                                            #9759
                                                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                            Guys, I think I am going to take some time off from SBR or at least from posting plays with writeups. Now that baseball is here and my son is getting older, I just don't see any value in continuing to spend so much time on SBR. I have too much going on in my life to keep posting. Today, my wife was asking me as we were driving home from dinner why I spend so much time on SBR. To be honest, I really didn't have a good answer. I've been posting my plays daily for over year. I feel like I have shared a ton of my knowledge and helped a lot of people out. I just don't know how much longer I can do this. It's not fair to me or my family to keep wasting so much time on here. I need to reevaluate some things. Might be time to wind down my threads.....it used to be a lot of fun, but now it seems more like a job. Ugh....
                                                            Respect.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • mikea33
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 11-14-11
                                                              • 2149

                                                              #9760
                                                              Thanks for all you do LTA! Mabye just dont get us the writeups. There awesome.but defiently take a lot of time. We'd all love for u too stay and post your plays!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Chili_Powder
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 12-22-11
                                                                • 824

                                                                #9761
                                                                Thanks for all of your efforts and contributions, and best wishes in all future endeavors.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • jas19illini
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 10-27-10
                                                                  • 682

                                                                  #9762
                                                                  Completely understand your position LTA. Ive learned a lot from you. I know i love reading the writeups for insight, but ive read enough of them to have a good idea what to look for when evaluating matchups. So if you decide to ditch the writeups and just post plays, you wouldnt hear a peep from me. If you decide to comepletely leave, you'll be missed very much.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • mikea33
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 11-14-11
                                                                    • 2149

                                                                    #9763
                                                                    Originally posted by jas19illini
                                                                    Completely understand your position LTA. Ive learned a lot from you. I know i love reading the writeups for insight, but ive read enough of them to have a good idea what to look for when evaluating matchups. So if you decide to ditch the writeups and just post plays, you wouldnt hear a peep from me. If you decide to comepletely leave, you'll be missed very much.


                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Crowing Capers
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 03-30-12
                                                                      • 295

                                                                      #9764
                                                                      I probaly speak for many lurkers on this thread... Really appreciate the time and effort you have put in on here. I have punted for 12-13 years but the last 4 months following this thread alone has taught me so much about BR management and disciplined betting.....
                                                                      Respect to you LTA and your family ,and thank you for the winners you have posted here. Much appreciated.

                                                                      BOL with your future sports investing mate.

                                                                      Cheers
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • absolutkaos
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 12-29-11
                                                                        • 213

                                                                        #9765
                                                                        Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                        Guys, I think I am going to take some time off from SBR or at least from posting plays with writeups. Now that baseball is here and my son is getting older, I just don't see any value in continuing to spend so much time on SBR. I have too much going on in my life to keep posting. Today, my wife was asking me as we were driving home from dinner why I spend so much time on SBR. To be honest, I really didn't have a good answer. I've been posting my plays daily for over year. I feel like I have shared a ton of my knowledge and helped a lot of people out. I just don't know how much longer I can do this. It's not fair to me or my family to keep wasting so much time on here. I need to reevaluate some things. Might be time to wind down my threads.....it used to be a lot of fun, but now it seems more like a job. Ugh....
                                                                        LTA, all the best with whatever you decide to do. thanks for all the fun, hard work & profit this year. cheers.
                                                                        Comment
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