NBA Daily Picks

[kobstopa]

It feels like Dejavu all over. Are you trying to repeat Game 1 all over again?

do you expect any different ?, unlike the Knicks was an odd one out, these teams come to play

[kobstopa]

updated ver. got the date typo.



Atlanta at Orlando
Three teams had their back to wall & held out the elimination at home: Pacers, Sixers and Denver today.
Orlando too, will look to survive one more game at home.

SVG & Otis Smith is on the chopping block, unless they have a hidden immunity now is the time to play it.

BUDLIGHT COLD HARD FACTS: including playoff record between these two teams
Atlanta:
Under is 37-15 in ATL last 52 vs. NBA Southeast.
Under is 12-5 in ATL last 17 road games.

Orlando:
ORL are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Under is 9-2 in ORL last 11 vs. NBA Southeast.
ORL are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Tue. games.

Head to Head:
ATL are 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings.




in the last 3 games we can see they were decided by an average 4.5 points.

Take Atlanta +7.5
Take total under 178

_____________________________________
Indiana at Chicago
This is it for Indiana's basketball, it will be a respectable effort by them to keep the game close to the end,
but thank you for coming and goodbye. See you next year.

Bulls will wrap it up 4-1.

But we have yet to see the Bulls win by a double digit.



Indiana:
IND are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 Tue. games.
Under is 9-4 in IND last 13 road games.

Chicago:
CHI are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Under is 10-4 in CHI last 14 Tue. games.

Take Indiana +9.5
Take total under 187

[Love The Action]

Love the under in Atl/Orl, these teams have a history of playing under the total whether in the regular season or playoffs. I don't seed that changing here. I'm going to wait for the ref assignments before locking it though.

The bulls under scares me. Ive cashed every game of that series except the last game where I played the over but the teams both shot under 39% for the second game in a row. If I remember the line movement on that game, the total steamed up 3 points before tip as the syndicates and smart money were on the over. I see the same reasons for the over in this game. Can these two teams really shot under 40% for a third game in a row or do they revert to their averages.

I have no doubt rose plays and I might play the over in the bulls game small.

Don't you like the lakers under as well? I see that one staying under just like atl/orlando. Those are the two best plays imho.

GoodLuck on your plays.

[kobstopa]

Love the under in Atl/Orl, these teams have a history of playing under the total whether in the regular season or playoffs. I don't seed that changing here. I'm going to wait for the ref assignments before locking it though.

The bulls under scares me. Ive cashed every game of that series except the last game where I played the over but the teams both shot under 39% for the second game in a row. If I remember the line movement on that game, the total steamed up 3 points before tip as the syndicates and smart money were on the over. I see the same reasons for the over in this game. Can these two teams really shot under 40% for a third game in a row or do they revert to their averages.

I have no doubt rose plays and I might play the over in the bulls game small.

Don't you like the lakers under as well? I see that one staying under just like atl/orlando. Those are the two best plays imho.

GoodLuck on your plays.

Can these two teams really shot under 40% for a third game in a row or do they revert to their averages.

I really cant put an exact answer to that, but would be very surprised to see more than 43 % on average, the defense had been air tight on both sides, difficult to see the basket, combination of a lot of hits and miss, a block shot here and there. One of significant adjustment with the Pacers is their style of defense is similar to the Bulls; they do learn something from this series.

Lakers/hornets, i look at it from a plain stat of scoring cycle, it's on an alternate hi-lo, plus
again, it's really a number of factors: there's a few finishers between these teams can really shoot against difficult spacing & can really score against a good defense locked on them,
Kob creates his own shots
Pau can hit that low post/so bynum
CP3 can take it in many form off the pick & in the lane, he can take his own shots when they space out for his assist targets.

....i can go forever here, but thing seem fall into places... it could go similar to the spur/mem game today,.
but overall I think the Lakers will force the action, as they want to build the lead into late period and down want to play from behind, the hornets will too go with this pace. It will be a lot of energy at LA, the hornets themselves will come out with focus on every play.

[Love The Action]

Can these two teams really shot under 40% for a third game in a row or do they revert to their averages.

I really cant put an exact answer to that, but would be very surprised to see more than 43 % on average, the defense had been air tight on both sides, difficult to see the basket, combination of a lot of hits and miss, a block shot here and there. One of significant adjustment with the Pacers is their style of defense is similar to the Bulls; they do learn something from this series.

Lakers/hornets, i look at it from a plain stat of scoring cycle, it's on an alternate hi-lo, plus
again, it's really a number of factors: there's a few finishers between these teams can really shoot against difficult spacing & can really score against a good defense locked on them,
Kob creates his own shots
Pau can hit that low post/so bynum
CP3 can take it in many form off the pick & in the lane, he can take his own shots when they space out for his assist targets.

....i can go forever here, but thing seem fall into places... it could go similar to the spur/mem game today,.
but overall I think the Lakers will force the action, as they want to build the lead into late period and down want to play from behind, the hornets will too go with this pace. It will be a lot of energy at LA, the hornets themselves
will come out with focus on every
play.

Great analysis. Thanks for your thoughts. I do agree about your hi-low assessment in the lakers game. I also agree that that the lakers will be really aggressive. However, I feel we see a letdown and poor shooting from the hornets tonight. The lakers need to stress defense tonight and I see both teams slowing it down in the second half and playing a half court defensive game. Plus, I think we will see a low scoring game in one of the next two games, so I will play the under small today and go bigger in the next game if it doesn't hit. My concern is that a few late foul calls help push it over and will be interested to see the ref assignments.

Good luck tonight on all your plays. You have some great thoughts and I appreciate your thread.

[bowers1989]

i got a 7pt teaser with pacers +17 hawks +14.5 and hornets+17.5. ;p

[JC 420]

i got a 7pt teaser with pacers +17 hawks +14.5 and hornets+17.5. ;p

nice teaser

[7secondsOrLess]

montas eyes lmao

[bowers1989]

nice teaser

yea. lets hope fo no serious blowouts. lol

[kobstopa]

i got a 7pt teaser with pacers +17 hawks +14.5 and hornets+17.5. ;p

if you're lucky, it doesn't matter even wit 10 you still can get it. But doesnt happen that often.

[GarbageMan]

Best of luck today kob, rolling with the pirates +1.5 myself.

[garbin]

And it seems that some people decided to play ball tonight.
Tonight wasn't great as far as results but happens.
I like the Grizzlies and the Thunders tomorrow to cover, don't see Spurs blowing them like today's games.
OKC will probably readjust and make better shot decision for this game making it really hard for the Denver team to keep it up.

What do you think Kob?

[NBA_Brosuf]

So today's game is a reverse of all them game 1 where dogs win and under cashed.

This is my indicator to get out and wait for the next trendy train.

[kobstopa]

_____________________________________




Like a cut scene at the start of " The Apocalypse Now" ......
This is the end, Beautiful friend
This is the end My only friend, the end....."add the rest of that elevator music"...... by the doors.

James the assassin & his machete masquerade the buffalo sixers. Act 4 scene 1.

Take Miami -11
Take total under 186
_____________________________________



Denver had won just one game & already sent OKC's coaching staff into a mild migraine.
At least they know how to fix it. Play defense, keep the nugg under 95 points, 2nd round here we come.

Take OKC -6.5
Take total under 205


_____________________________________

[kobstopa]

And it seems that some people decided to play ball tonight.
Tonight wasn't great as far as results but happens.
I like the Grizzlies and the Thunders tomorrow to cover, don't see Spurs blowing them like today's games.
OKC will probably readjust and make better shot decision for this game making it really hard for the Denver team to keep it up.

What do you think Kob?

spur/grizz - I think it will decide by a bucket
OKC will close it out, KD will shoot light out. Denvers put a resistance at half & then let it go just like the Hawks & the Pacers today's games.

[kobstopa]

ver2


upgraded the Spurs/Grizz to under




Memphis at San Antonio
It should be an extra mild defense lock down by the Spurs on the the Grizz.

Take total under 189


MLB
_____________________________________
Rockies at Chicago Cubs

Starting Pitchers
Colorado: Chacin (3-1, 2.67 ERA)
Chicago: Coleman (1-1, 7.43 ERA)

Rockies to win

_____________________________________
Kansas at Cleveland Indians
Make it 0-5 for KC. Clev will hit it one more at home.
Starting Pitchers

Kansas City: Francis (0-2, 4.06 ERA)
Cleveland: Tomlin (3-0, 2.33 ERA)


Take Indians
Take total over 8.5

[kobstopa]

[ATTACH]27081[/ATTACH]

_____________________________________


[ATTACH]27076[/ATTACH]

Like a cut scene at the start of " The Apocalypse Now" ......
This is the end, Beautiful friend
This is the end My only friend, the end....."add the rest of that elevator music"...... by the doors.

James the assassin & his machete masquerade the buffalo sixers. Act 4 scene 1.

Take Miami -11
Take total under 186 -
score: 91 97 Heats
_____________________________________

[ATTACH]27077[/ATTACH]

Denver had won just one game & already sent OKC's coaching staff into a mild migraine.
At least they know how to fix it. Play defense, keep the nugg under 95 points, 2nd round here we come.

Take OKC -6.5
Take total under 205


_____________________________________

score

[kobstopa]

ver2
[ATTACH]27086[/ATTACH]

upgraded the Spurs/Grizz to under

[ATTACH]27087[/ATTACH]


Memphis at San Antonio
It should be an extra mild defense lock down by the Spurs on the the Grizz.

Take total under 189


MLB
_____________________________________
Rockies at Chicago Cubs

Starting Pitchers
Colorado: Chacin (3-1, 2.67 ERA)
Chicago: Coleman (1-1, 7.43 ERA)

Rockies to win delayed

_____________________________________
Kansas at Cleveland Indians
Make it 0-5 for KC. Clev will hit it one more at home.
Starting Pitchers

Kansas City: Francis (0-2, 4.06 ERA)
Cleveland: Tomlin (3-0, 2.33 ERA)


Take Indians
Take total over 8.5
2-7 indians

score

[garbin]

I really liked the under, very unlucky to lose this one. But I scored Memphis at least.
Now I have OKC -3.5 lets see if they bring the night!
Good baseball calls!

[kobstopa]

I really liked the under, very unlucky to lose this one. But I scored Memphis at least.
Now I have OKC -3.5 lets see if they bring the night!
Good baseball calls!

i parlay OKC -6.5/under 205 x Indians/over 8.5 x rockie ml
gl tol all of us

[garbin]

F.uck, that was close again! -0.5!

[kobstopa]

damn, didn't cover it. oh well.. at least it was in good spot

97 100 OKC

[kobstopa]

F.uck, that was close again! -0.5!

sorry man, it's total out of character to see OKC behind in the 4th like that & cant close out with a descent lead.
poor defense all the way, free layup late in the game when u down 4 points.

[garbin]

I agree, it happens.

[kobstopa]

[ATTACH]27109[/ATTACH]

[St8Ca$homie]

Sorry new to this thread , i take it these are your plays for 4/28. Nice features bud , GL

[kobstopa]

Sorry new to this thread , i take it these are your plays for 4/28. Nice features bud , GL

Hi there Ca$h,

what we have here is just an estimate(or a working in progress figure if you like), I will have separate plays later on.

good luck with your play

[kobstopa]

MLB
_____________________________________
Rays at Minnesota Twins

Starting Pitchers

Tampa Bay: Hellickson (1-2, 4.32 ERA)
Minnesota: Blackburn (1-3, 4.01 ERA)

Take Tampa to win

_____________________________________
Cardinals at Houston Astros
Starting Pitchers

St. Louis: McClellan (3-0, 2.16 ERA)
Houston: Figueroa (0-3, 8.55 ERA)

Take total over 8.5

_____________________________________
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland
Starting Pitchers

Kansas City: Davies (1-2, 6.23 ERA)
Cleveland: Carmona (1-3, 5.76 ERA

Take Cleveland to win

[kobstopa]

Orlando at Atlanta
We'll see if SVG's pick'n' roll working again & the Hawks will approach this one as a game 7 at home.

Take total under 178.5

_____________________________________
Dallas at Portland
Can Dirk and the Mav close it out ?. But I doubt that Portland will go into a forth quarter mental collapse again at home.

Dallas +4.5

[Love The Action]

Really respect your opinion Kob and I love to see that we are both on the Atl/Orl under!

I'm also playing the Lakers/Hornets under (big) and the Portland/Dallas under as well. All three unders for me!

Any thoughts on those last two? As we discussed, the hi-low, zig-zag is in full effect in that Lakers series. With an intense game 6 elimination game up tonight, I really like the under. Both teams understand they will need to D-up to win. Any thoughts on those other two game under calls?

Thanks bud and good luck on all of your plays!

[kobstopa]

Really respect your opinion Kob and I love to see that we are both on the Atl/Orl under!

I'm also playing the Lakers/Hornets under (big) and the Portland/Dallas under as well. All three unders for me!

Any thoughts on those last two? As we discussed, the hi-low, zig-zag is in full effect in that Lakers series. With an intense game 6 elimination game up tonight, I really like the under. Both teams understand they will need to D-up to win. Any thoughts on those other two game under calls?

Thanks bud and good luck on all of your plays!

Hi there LTA,

the last two can be tricky & a relative one, especially the Lakers
let look at that zig-zag: the pattern went back to feb 2011 (see below), & i hope the pattern stay that way, Lakers scored around 100 (3/4 times) at home in a consistent form.



now keep in mind through regular season, NO played strong defense and evident with its league low points allow per game & so was the Lakers ( had 3 good 8 games winning stretch). One would assume they played a slow pace game, which not necessary true, they can run an upper tempo as well depend on the situation present itself.

In this series we have seen LA had trouble contained CP3 & NO off the pick'n'roll where he had good numbers and they loss. therefore can expect CP to go aggressive with offense & force the action; how effective is their mid range jumpers ?, this will then depend on how effective is LA's defense on the day

In short, if both play solid, physical & equivalent amount of defense then it should round out their offense efficiency & we'll have a poor scoring production, therefore low scoring.
And judging from Jackson's comment recently, we can expect some sort of a physical form

http://lakers.ocregister.com/2011/04/27/phil-jackson-expect-a-feisty-game-thursday/53581/

a good read on LA's defensive scheme here, to further more understanding:

http://lakers.ocregister.com/2011/03/07/breaking-down-the-specifics-of-new-lakers-defense/50423/

As for Portland, i sense they like to push the ball more than usual & again it's not a grinding that people think they are. But surprisingly Dallas had slow them down, see espn's nice little stat tool here

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/team/_/stat/defense-per-game

I like our chances for the under today, gl

[Love The Action]

Thanks for the insight and links! Good luck tonight.

[GarbageMan]

Was on the Rays as well mate, let the good times roll

[NBA_Brosuf]

With the portland game, when Kidd shooting lights out, it went over yeah? I remembered losing a few games playing the under and lost because Kidd was on a shooting spree.

In game 5, kidd scoring was ineffective but he had double figures assist. Aldridge has a low score and did not shoot a single free throw. Dirk has only 25. Everyone was low on their average and yet, the total was just 7 points below today's total. Now what would happen if everyone can just inch up a little bit which more likely to happen because 2 skunking days is just bad for business? High or low? You guys riding low, I'm riding high. I hate to go against you guys but lets critique when the game is over. I'm down to see where I was off and learn some more.

[kobstopa]

Was on the Rays as well mate, let the good times roll