Don't use that mentality man. There is a reason it is called the gambler's fallacy.
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well i have taken 200 and turned it into 1300 within a week.
hope tomorrow is the start of another great run. don't get too carried away with the number of picks you throw in a parlay and it is usually better to play one larger one than to play multiple smaller parlays.
One HUGE tip I can give is to NEVER put one "sure thing" in multiple parlays because if it fuks you then it can ruin everything. Try to limit putting a play in at most 2 parlays.Comment -
you talking about my comment on the mavericks???
I suppose the winning streak scaring me is more of an emotional thing but Dallas has really been shaky at times at home this year, losing to memphis and denver (2 teams with awful road records) and playing close games with teams like Golden state and DetroitComment -
The bucks are atrocious on the road. Mavs might not cover the bigger spreads at home but they win the games.
Mavs and Spurs are the best teams in the league right now.Comment -
bucks looked awful against houston, cant see them winning.
Dallas is a different team this year.Comment -
so what do you guys think about taking the bulls ML?Comment -
i will be throwing it in a parlay for sure.Comment -
i suggest you look at the lakers game vs the pacers right off the top of my head.lakers were at home coming off a loss and were favored by 9 I think.
big upsets are a very rare thing in a league with such awful parity but that only makes this strategy all the better.Comment -
Sunday recap
Sunday 2-1 +$1000
Prior 2-0 for +$2560
YTD 4-1 +$3560Comment -
Miami, Dallas, Utah today?Comment -
This is why I wait till 1/4 of the season is over before I start betting NBA. At this point predicting winners is pretty easy. I stay away from close match ups. I place bets on 2 kinds of teams. A winning team playing a losing team where both teams have lopsided records. And, teams who are on a win streak facing a team on a losing streak. The second strategy is more profitable sometimes because you can get great lines. Usually the lines on sure things are pretty steep.
One thing that I do is I always take ML, never the spread. I find basketball to be the easiest sport to beat by far. Don't use spreads, use money lines, stay away from close match ups, and look at win streak vs losing streak. Also look at road/home and how long a team has been on the road and how much they are traveling. But don't over correct for road/home. I can't tell you how many times people have fussed at me for making a play because of road/home arguments and my play won anyway.
I'm thinking more in terms of teams on a streak rather than good team vs bad team. Let's say that team A has won five in a row at home and team B has lost five in a row on the road and team B is playing team A and team B is on the road. I'll probably take team A here.
Also, don't use just the game, some teams come out strong and always fade, like Detroit, and some teams come out bad but always finish strong. I do a lot of quarters and halves, I don't post them very often because a lot of people cannot get the quarters and halves plays I make and I don't want to hear all the arguing.
Another thing that I do, is I create my own parlays by taking teams which start at different times and playing them straight up and then rolling the money into a later game. This avoids the vig. True, a lot of people will have a heart attack if they have to lay $15,000 to win $1,000 but I find that odds like this are money in the bank. IF you play a large number of games. Let's say that yesterday you liked the Lakers and the Magic. If you put them in a parlay you pay a vig. But you can create your own parlay. You can play the Lakers, let's say at $5200 to win $1000. Then later you can play the Magic, at $7000 to win $2000. No vig. Roll the winnings of the first play into the second play. I won't post plays like this here because this is a parlay thread, but this is sound money management.Comment -
Monday Dec 13
Miami -750
Dallas -400
Utah -750
Chicago pending
I'll update this later when I find out what Chicago's line is but I am expecting Chicago to be some where around -400, making this play to be somewhere around +100, so I'll be betting $1,000 to win $1,000. I'll update this later.
If you like Memphis, that makes the parlay +255, so laying $1000 pays $2,550. I don't know how to cap Portland. LOL. How does a crap team like this win 4 games in a row then get completely blown out?Comment -
guys, add Ravens - 165 to all bets today
it's a fantastic value and the ravens are definately gonna win this game against a texans team that is 0-5 their last 5 games against decent opponentsComment -
brahma bull
i like ur picks
they match mine as well ,, all over the ravens as wellComment -
I would actually parlay the spread pick of the ravens
ravens will win this by 10+ points...but even if it's a close game, they will still win by 3 (very few games are ever decided by less than 3 points) so you won't lose anything in terms of a parlayComment -
so what does your money line parlay look like for the day with basketball?Comment -
my book wont let me parlay jazz or heat ml's
... i guess ill just parlay bulls mavs and ravens. what do you think?
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this is gonna be a fantastic week guys
lots and lots of matchups of bad teams playing good teams...there is 4 today, looks to be about 2 tuesday, 4-5 on wednesday and 4-6 on friday as wellComment -
Nice, good luck everyoneComment -
Maybe a teaser with the maximum number of points? I don't usually do teasers but that might work okay. See what some of the other guys think. If you go 7 points that gives you $100 to win $190.
I know, I know this thread is ML parlays but if you can't get the bet you have to do something.Comment -
Goodluck!Comment -
hey you putting the ravens in your parlay today???
it really is a magnificient value and the Ravens coach (forgot his name) is something like 15-1 against Bad teams
Texans have collapsed the last 7 weeks, no real chance they can beat a Ravens team that desperately needs a W todayComment -
Just found this thread, great stuff.
Curious, I like your picks for the evening...the Bulls/Pacers game is a little too close for my liking though. Instead of the Bulls, I'm thinking of playing the total on this game, which I think is set way too low.
Dallas ML
Miami ML
Utah ML
Bulls/Pacers Over 192.5
At my book, a $1000 wager pays out $2909...not too shabby.
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Just found this thread, great stuff. Curious, I like your picks for the evening...the Bulls/Pacers game is a little too close for my liking though. Instead of the Bulls, I'm thinking of playing the total on this game, which I think is set way too low. Dallas ML Miami ML Utah ML Bulls/Pacers Over 192.5 At my book, a $1000 wager pays out $2909...not too shabby.
why in the hell would you play the Over in a game involving the pacers and the bulls??
the 2 teams are a combined 14-29 (30% winning percentage) on the Over/Under this season
the bulls specifically are playing terrific defense right nowComment -
Yeah your bookmaker will think it isn't too shabby when he comes to collect the $1000 that you owe him. This is a really bad idea. If you don't like the Bulls then leave them off and play a 3 team parlay.Just found this thread, great stuff.
Curious, I like your picks for the evening...the Bulls/Pacers game is a little too close for my liking though. Instead of the Bulls, I'm thinking of playing the total on this game, which I think is set way too low.
Dallas ML
Miami ML
Utah ML
Bulls/Pacers Over 192.5
At my book, a $1000 wager pays out $2909...not too shabby.Comment
