Plus it is a long ass trip up to the corner of mass in BUTT CRACK COUNTRY !!!this the home advantage they had for all these years?
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Good job to me bean? Haha I did awfulComment -
I tried years back to get there to bang some chick in my college days and it was a nightmare of ride buddy.still looking at it i see what you like about it but the line is shady?why isn't delaware a fav?Comment -
Sorry buddy didn't mean last night in general !!!Comment -
Wasn't trying to be a ass to you young buck we'll turn it around!!Comment -
St johns take a look ybuck and tell what you see?Comment -
providence +6 at home vs nova they can score with anyone at home it should be rocking the sharps knocked it down to 5.5 but the public should knock it back up close to game time !!plus the over /under 154 to 156 telling me sharps think they hang at home!!Comment -
Ok sonny what do you like about bradley -2.5 ?????????? 1-8 at home ? I don't see why everyone thinks this the game they turn it around ?Comment -
I mean they both suck and bradley might svck less but i think it will be a close one !i know illi st 1-5 on the road,but they both are bad in conference play 1-8 for illi and 0-9 for bradley they are due to win oneComment -
NOW I SEE THAT REDBIRDS SVCK ON THE ROAD
Home team is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
Redbirds are 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
Underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Redbirds are 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Bradley.Comment -
I know u werent tryin to b an ass bean haha I.know not worried ab the losing ill turn it around I just started cappin 4 months ago still learnin the ropes good to b learnin from the best bean ayo sonny!Comment -
Good luck with your picks.Comment -
I have found some good ones buddy's give me a hour
leans
texas
providence
west virginia +7
central fla +5.5
southern miss
u mass +4**
lsu +20 vs tenn
uri +3
marshall +6
houston +6 ******Comment -
NICE STAT HOLDEN ACES
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Sonny i like the plays but i think that lsu is the strongest out of the 3 plays buddy then delaware then bradleyComment -
Most casual bettors don’t make a profit from their sports betting hobby. This includes bettors who are relatively sharp as well as those who couldn’t pick a winner if their lives depended on it. That’s not a horrible thing either – if every bettor won, sports books would be going belly up and bettors would run out of places to play.
Many bettors really don’t seem to care very much about earning a long term profit. They like to have some action on games as a form of recreation or excitement, not as an investment decision. Many of these types of bettors are far more interested in TV games than anything else, and they tend to bet more on bigger games, like the Super Bowl or the NCAA Tournament.
Much of the industry jargon considers MONEY MANAGEMENT as important as picking winners, if not more so. And it certainly is. But throwing around buzzwords like ‘money management’ and describing esoteric concepts like ‘isolate a percentage of bankroll’ and ‘positive expectation bets’ really doesn’t help the fortunes of most recreational bettors.
If you, personally, are content with betting for entertainment purposes only than this essay will serve little purpose. But if you wish to be a successful sports bettor, even as an amateur, and earn a profit from your betting over an extended period of time, here are some tips that should help you in that quest.
Don’t bet into bad numbers
Professional handicappers recognize the value of the half point. On the average college basketball Saturday, for example, there are at least ? dozen games that are won or lost against the spread by a point or less. If he bet on the game, the pro bettor will be on the right side of just about every one of those decisions. He’ll either be getting the push when others lost, or he’ll get the win when others pushed. (I use ‘he’ because, to be honest, every professional sports bettor that I know is a man – this is a very segregated industry in that regard).
The pro will take the extra time to shop around for the best number at multiple sportsbooks. He’ll have accounts that are funded in enough places to ensure that when he finds the line that he is looking for, he’ll be able to place the bet. He’ll have an idea of which direction the line is likely to move, enabling him to bet early or late, depending on which time offers an advantageous number.
The pro wins by a half point far more often than he loses by the hook. Making a modest 20 bets a week (1000 a year, a number that is on the low side for most professionals), it is not unusual to gain an extra 10 or 15 wins a year and another 10 or 15 pushes just by betting into good numbers. Assuming the bettor is betting a modest 2% of his bankroll on any given play, those 20 or 30 favorable decisions translates into a 40-60% swing in his return on his sports betting investment. That’s not chump change, folks, it’s hard earned profit gained one half point at a time!
Make more straight bets and fewer parlays
Professional bettors make the vast majority of their bets as straight bets, not as parlays. For amateurs, the number is closer to 50:50, and there are many, many amateurs who rarely straight bet at all. But the straight bet is the pro’s bread and butter.
Professionals are satisfied with the RETURN ON INVESTMENT from a 3-2 day, or a 12-8 week. They are in it for the long haul, not always looking for the quick score that parlays provide. Amateurs are often lured by the big PAYDAYS that winning parlays provide, conveniently forgetting that a season largely consisting of steady 2-1 type days will be even more profitable than the big hits that parlays provide even in a good overall season.
Straight bettors never curse the 4-1 days – when they pick more winners than losers – because they make a profit every time, while parlay bettors don’t. There’s a reason that every sports book in Las Vegas has their parlay cards prominently displayed – frankly, parlays pay the bills at most joints here in town. That’s not to say pro bettors never go for the long shot score, but when they do, they do it for a considerably lesser percentage of their bankroll, and they do it in conjunction with their straight bets, not in lieu of them.
Concentrate more on box scores and less on final scores
It’s easy to look at the final score of a game and make all kinds of false assumptions. This team got killed; that team gave ‘em all they could handle. But without reading game recaps and looking at box scores, you really have no idea of what took place, and what kind of current form the teams you are examining are in.
It’s key to handicap games again, after the games are over. What happened that you expected to happen, and what was a surprise? Which things are likely to repeat themselves, and which are something of an anomaly?
Here’s an example. The Pistons play the Cavs at home, as nine point favorites, but win by only seven, 97-90. But looking at the box score, it’s clear that Detroit dominated for most of the game. The Pistons won the rebounding battle and forced Cleveland into turnovers. They led by double digits at halftime and after three quarters. But the Cavs hit some late shots in garbage time and made the final score closer than the game was.
On that same night, the Wizards are nine point favorites to the Raptors, and win by that same 97-90 margin. But the box score here indicates a whole different story. The Wizards trailed throughout this game, but got hot in the 4th quarter to steal the win. Washington made an uncharacteristic 27-30 from the free throw line, and hit ten three pointers, while Toronto shot just 4-19 in the 4th quarter.
By examining the box scores you can recognize that the Pistons are in better form than the Wizards. Your expanded knowledge of how the two games with the same final score actually played makes your future wagers involving those teams more likely to be successful.
Take advantage of value
Lines makers have a pretty good idea of which way the money is going to flow once they hang their opening numbers. And amateur bettors are a big part of this, falling in love with ‘public’ teams, betting them over and over again.
In college sports, these ‘public’ teams are usually in the Top 25, from a major conference – well known schools. In the pro sports, they are the hottest teams, teams at the top of their respective divisions or conferences. The professional bettor will recognize this public bias, notice that the lines are inflated for many of the best teams in the country, and either bet against many of the good teams or pass on their games entirely.
Instead, the pro’s concentrate much more on backing the ‘good but not great’ type of squads, teams that have fallen underneath the public’s collective radar, as well as fading some of the mediocre type squads that are in poor current form. The pros bet against Top 25 clubs far more often than they back ‘em – that’s where the value is, catching six points with an underdog that should only be getting four.
It’s equally important to recognize when the lines makers have priced you out of a play. The Mavericks and the Suns have been red hot in the NBA for the last months. While few bettors of any ilk like to step in front of juggernauts like these, they also recognize that the time to back these two squads has come and gone – there’s no value on their respective sides now that the linesmakers and bettors have finally made the necessary adjustments.
Be smart when betting your streaks.
It’s one of the most common mistakes that amateurs make, and it’s quite possibly the most costly. Amateurs press their losses, raising the stakes to get back to even off a losing week/streak. Pro bettors know that there will be times when you lose more than you win. Hopefully, those times are few and far between, but inevitably, they will happen to everybody.
Rather than raising the stakes during a bad run, the pro lowers his stakes, conserving bankroll while waiting for things to turn around. There’s no ‘double or nothing’ attitude on Monday Night Football games for the pro.
Conversely, the pro knows that winning streaks are the time to press your bets, not the time to pull back with a conservative approach to their recent profit. When a ‘capper is in good form and good rhythm, with his read on the games in solid form and the bounces generally falling in his direction, he’s not afraid to raise his stakes a bit, making larger plays when the percentages are in his favor (positive expectation wagers).
It sounds so basic – don’t chase losses, ride your winning streaks, but few amateur bettors are able to maintain an even keel during periods of higher rates than the norm of both successes and of failures. NOT MY WORK FROM A CAPPERComment -
Sbr can i give credit to who wrote it or is that considered promoting?Comment -
thanks for the article boston, it was a good read....very good tips.Comment -
whats good fellas
i like minn 1h - 2.5 theyre niceee at home
even though nolen is out tonight which might take away from their offense, n. western doesnt really play that well on the road. other than playing msu close on the road theyve got beaten big by good teams on the road.
home team 4-1 ats in past matchups
what do u guys thinkComment -
Im leanin under ayoComment -
OKC and San Diego State Teaser for me tonight. Also tailing the providence play because I can't figure out the Big East whatsoever this year.Comment -
buck im leanin texas/ok st overComment -
what u think about rhode island +3?Comment -
bean did u get my pm
LETS GET ITComment -
Sonny im on Delaware at +3.5 an i like tarheels tonight at -1 the line doesnt make sense to me...little shady??? what do yall think...Comment -
Villanova laying 5Comment -
last night i was gun ho on miami then i seen the line and heard top 2 guys are out for them remember the other day when Siena's guy was out and the line was looking shady siena lost but i think tonight miami will win su nc on the road is awful might be a no play for meLETS GET ITComment -
Hey thanks for the insight sonny i just saw that game went to pk so public is on miami big i guess im just gonna make small play on nc hoping public losses... my best game is Gtown i think they roll tonight...Comment -
I like rhode island ayo same set up as richmond last nightComment -
sonny what you think memphis -6 or memphis at the half -2.5 ?Comment -
Also leaning james madisonComment
