3 team tease sweetheart 2.5 x
ravens +13
ravens /pitt o/u under 47
green bay +11.5
2.5x to make 2and change
ravens +13
ravens /pitt o/u under 47
green bay +11.5
2.5x to make 2and change
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Comment -
wow cuz got to come in and start dunking on mofos and save nova sonny!put cuz in coachComment -
duke in foul trouble down to vir what you think 2nd half duke come out on fireComment -
lets start 2 halfing these games on the flowComment -
yo sonny boston college has been playing great latelyComment -
going with the under 72 duke / vir 2 halfComment -
under 72 1x duke /vir
virgina +14 .5x i think between the foul trouble that duke is in a fist fight here with virginiaComment -
texasa+m went over damnComment -
2010 AFC Divisional Round Preview
by Aaron Schatz
The word of the week in the AFC is "rubber." Rubber, as in "rubber match," two sets of division rivals who split their regular season games this year. Rubber, as in "I'm rubber and you're glue," which is what Tom Brady would likely say to Antonio Cromartie and Terrell Suggs were he 10 years old. And rubber as in "when the rubber meets the road," because the losers of this week's games go home.
For those who may be unfamiliar with the Football Outsiders stats, they are explained at the bottom of the page. Scroll down or click this link. Please remember that all stats represent regular season only, except for weighted DVOA and anything else specifically noted.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
All readers can click here for in-game discussion on our message boards. If you have FO Premium, you can click here to see all the matchup of DVOA splits for this game.
There are some interesting trends coming into this game, primarily the recent improvement of both the Pittsburgh offense and the Baltimore defense. The Pittsburgh offense ranked 20th in DVOA during the first four Big Ben-free weeks of the season, then 14th during Big Ben's first four games back. But since Week 10, the Steelers have the second-best offense in the league, behind only New England. The Baltimore defense has likewise improved, from 14th in the first half of the year to second (behind, of course, the Steelers) since Week 10. Over the second half of the season, the Ravens have the best run defense in the NFL. Pittsburgh is third in that time-period, and first if we look at the entire season.
Ravens on Offense
BAL OFF PIT DEF DVOA 9.4% (12) -18.5% (1) WEI DVOA 9.1% (12) -17.1% (1) PASS 31.8% (7) -13.0% (2) RUSH 0.9% (13) -27.7% (1) RED ZONE -5.4% (23) -38.7% (1)Steelers on Offense
PIT OFF BAL DEF DVOA 17.9% (5) -7.9% (4) WEI DVOA 23.9% (3) -13.4% (3) PASS 45.6% (3) -3.2% (6) RUSH 0.2% (14) -14.6% (5) RED ZONE 2.2% (14) -19.7% (7)Special Teams
BAL PIT DVOA 5.6% (4) 0.9% (16) BAL kickoff 14.5 (3) 3.6 (12) PIT kickoff 0.5 (15) -1.2 (20) BAL punts 18.1 (1) -5.5 (28) PIT punts -4.8 (26) 9.4 (5) FG/XP 4.8 (8) -1.1 (24)
That defensive improvement by Baltimore is one of the reasons why previewing this game is rather difficult. Finding weaknesses is tough when two teams spend the season playing "anything you can do, I can do better" with pretty much every defensive statistic.
WHEN THE RAVENS HAVE THE BALL
Ray Rice is almost assuredly not going to be the biggest factor for Baltimore in this game. The Steelers have allowed a remarkable 2.8 yards per carry to running backs on first down, and a league-low 0.17 Open Field Yards per carry. Meanwhile, the Ravens' running game -- allegedly a team strength -- has dropped from 13th in DVOA during the first half of the year to 21st in the second half. The Ravens rank only 29th in third-and-short situations and 23rd in the red zone. And because of these issues with the running game, the Ravens offense often struggled when it had a big lead (26th in DVOA when leading by more than eight points).
So how will the Ravens do if forced to go to the air more often than they would prefer? Watch for the Ravens throwing to whichever receiver is lined up on the right side. (The Ravens generally move their receivers around, so we can't say who that receiver will be.) Our charting numbers show a big difference between the two Pittsburgh cornerbacks.
Pittsburgh Cornerback Charting Stats
(Games Charted as of 1/14/11) Player Targets per
Charted Game Yd/Pass Suc Rate 20-B.McFadden 7.8 7.7 45% 24-I.Taylor 5.0 7.1 55% 22-W.Gay 4.1 7.0 51% Of course, Joe Flacco will have to stay upright in order to find those receivers on the right side. The Pittsburgh defense was third in Adjusted Sack Rate, while the Ravens offense was 25th and got significantly worse as the season progressed. Baltimore's Adjusted Sack Rate on offense went from 5.3 percent in the first half of the season to 10.7 percent since Week 10. No matter who the Ravens throw to, they aren't likely to get big plays with lots of yards after the catch. The Steelers led the league with just 3.9 average YAC. (The Ravens were sixth, allowing 4.6 YAC.)
However, trends that looked like weaknesses for Pittsburgh before the Week 13 Steelers-Ravens game no longer look like weaknesses after the final five weeks of the season. The Steelers defense dipped a bit at midseason after starting the year strong, but they ended the year strong as well. Back in Week 13, the Steelers were weaker against slot receivers and tight ends than against starting receivers; both of those numbers have improved. However, Baltimore could have success with running back screen passes; the Ravens gained 7.9 yards per screen pass while the Steelers allowed 8.3 yards per screen pass (27th).
WHEN THE STEELERS HAVE THE BALL
First of all, you may notice the impressive week-to-week graph over to the right. Overall, the Steelers were not as strong as the Patriots this season, but they were more consistent. The Patriots had two bad games, losses to Cleveland and the Jets. But the Steelers didn't have any stinkers. Even their losses had DVOA ratings around or even above zero percent. Their worst game of the year according to DVOA was -5.4% against this week's opponent, Baltimore, back in Week 4.
Of course, Ben Roethlisberger was not active for that game, and that highlights the biggest difference between Pittsburgh and Baltimore in 2010. While both defenses are strong, the Pittsburgh offense was simply better than the Baltimore offense this year. That's been true about the passing game since Roethlisberger returned in Week 6, and it's been true about the running game for the last two months.
Pittsburgh will want to use Rashard Mendenhall to attack the Baltimore defense on the right side, where the Ravens ranked just 28th in Adjusted Line Yards against runs behind right tackle and 31st in ALY against runs around right end. Still, "big gains" are relative against these defenses. Pittsburgh didn't have a run over 12 yards in either game against Baltimore, and had only ten runs over four yards. Eight of those ten were to the right side (seven by Mendenhall, one by Ike Redman).
When the Steelers go to the air, we'll all be watching for big plays by Mike Wallace. Wallace was the best receiver in the league this year according to both DYAR and DVOA, so obviously the Ravens are worried about him making big plays deep. However, the Ravens haven't been particularly susceptible to these plays since Ed Reed came back and they demoted Fabian Washington from the starting lineup. Lardarius Webb did a pretty good job covering Wallace in the first two Baltimore-Pittsburgh games, including two big passes defensed on deep throws to Wallace in the second half of the Week 4 game. Hines Ward declined a bit at the age of 34, but still had a good year and was particularly strong with 44.1% DVOA on third and fourth downs. The Ravens were very strong against slot receivers and tight ends, second in DVOA covering both positions.
The Ravens' pass rush isn't too strong -- just 24th in the league in Adjusted Sack Rate -- but it's hard not to get sacks against Ben Roethlisberger, especially when Jonathan Scott is "protecting" his left side. What's important is when those sacks come. Sacks on Roethlisberger do not tend to put Pittsburgh into tough second-and-long situations. Instead, Roethlisberger takes most of his sacks when he's desperate to make something happen that will extend the drive. The Steelers had the highest offensive Adjusted Sack Rate on third down -- and remember, ASR adjusts for the fact that sacks are more common on third down in general. The Ravens' sack rate also goes up with each down, so expect a couple of drives to end with Roethlisberger on the ground.
Adjusted Sack Rate by Down:
Pittsburgh Offense vs. Baltimore Defense
PIT OFF BAL DEF 1st Down 5.0% 3.4% 2nd Down 8.2% 5.5% 3rd/4th Down 12.9% 8.1% The Ravens don't like to send as much pressure as you might expect, and they might want to use more blitzes against Roethlisberger. Baltimore sent five- and six-man pass rushes this year at rates that matched the NFL averages. However, they were awesome when sending a big blitz of six or more, with just 4.2 yards per pass allowed. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger did get a little bit weaker with each additional pass rusher. It's not a massive difference, but he did go from 7.6 yards per pass (3-4 pass rushers) to 6.9 yards per pass (five pass rushers) and then 6.3 yards per pass (six or more pass rushers). Against Roethlisberger, pass pressure means bringing more guys, not just different guys. Roethlisberger was no worse against "zone blitzes" than he was against regular four-man and five-man rushes, and Baltimore was the team that sent the highest rate of zone blitzes this season, 13.2 percent. (Note that we changed the definition of a zone blitz in game charting this year to get a truer picture of complex 3-4 defenses. For a 3-4 defense, the definition now includes plays where both outside linebackers drop out but a defensive back or inside linebacker rushes the passer, not just plays where a defensive lineman drops out.)
The Ravens had the league's best defense against a play the Steelers rarely use, the running back screen, but also one of the league's top defenses against a play the Steelers use all the time, the wide receiver screen.
SPECIAL TEAMS
In my Numbers Crunching article on ESPN, and when guesting on a couple of podcasts this week, I mentioned that special teams would likely lead to longer field position for both teams, because both Pittsburgh and Baltimore rank very high in punt value but very low in punt return value. It turns out this is not quite true. I forgot about the injury to Pittsburgh's Dan "Robopunter" Sepulveda. Replacement Jon Kapinos was the worst punter in the league with Green Bay in 2009; he's been better in his short time with Pittsburgh this year, but still has just 32.3 net yards per attempt compared to Sepulveda's 39.1 net yards per attempt.
Baltimore has in advantage in special teams overall thanks to the spectacular (and, to be honest, fluky) season from kicker Billy Cundiff. Those touchbacks can mean a lot, although the advantage in field goals that appears in the season-long stats may no longer exist. Jeff Reed was worth -8.3 points compared to average when he kicked for Pittsburgh; replacement Shaun Suisham has been very strong, with 7.7 points of value above average on field goals (14-of-15).
OUTLOOK
One of these teams will win by three points because these games seem to always be decided by three points. Given their advantages over the Baltimore offense in important splits like third-and-short and the red zone, there's a better-than-even chance that the winner will be Pittsburgh.Comment -
kentucky -19 5x
nc state +7.5 5xLETS GET ITComment -
georgia +4 .5xComment -
yo i like bc they beat fla twice last year at +5Comment -
ray ray hell ya 7-7 looks like the refs are going to help it go over! !!!!!!!!!!!!pass int and no 15 yrd pen o the steelers earlierComment -
ya baby td ravens lollComment -
big turn of eventsComment -
baylor or sd st or new mexico?bc sonny you got a opinionComment -
boston college +5 2xComment -
sd st -1 1x
o/u130 sdst /mex over .5x
baylor -1 .5x
Comment -
colorado st/tcu o/u 140 under 8x
hawaii +2.5 5x
washington st +2 3x
colorado st/tcu 1h o/u 66.5 under 2x
uab +1 1x
cal irvine +3.5 1xComment -
NBA
TORONTO +6 1X
HOUSTON +9 1X
hornets +4 1x
det ml 1xComment -
college hoops
mich +2 .5x
uab +1 .5xComment -
what melt down by the ravensComment -
joe bet on the steelersComment -
huge fg for a chance at the under!47Comment -
6 pt teaser packers +7.5, atl/gb o/u 38 over 4xComment -
wow they are going to bring it back that is to bad nice runComment -
that was a bull shit callComment -
1 half atl -.5 2x
1half under 21.5 1x atl /gbComment -
oh ya atl -1 5x for the gameComment -
cash bc +5 and geargiaComment -
2 half over 23 3xatl/gbComment -
4-0 in the nba tonight cash those bitches.Comment -
Cal fullerton +2 1x
santa clara +17 1xComment -
utah st -8 2xComment
