John Morrison 2010 NBA

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  • Wallco99
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 01-01-11
    • 7261

    #4341
    Originally posted by Wilba
    cool thanks, appreciate the info. Ill go back to post #3916 didnt realise that was there, apologies for asking something that was already posted. (i was away for a week so wasnt keeping up with the thread)

    and yeah your ML filter is an interesting idea, I stopped trying to backtest when I saw bad stretches from 2006-9, but by the sound of it your ML filter might cut quite a few of these losses out.

    nice work on the research and thanks for sharing
    Just finished 2005-06 backtest, another winning season for Chase 110. Will post results soon.
    Comment
    • jphil
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 07-12-09
      • 757

      #4342
      Originally posted by stevex
      A
      B
      C

      Lets not make it complicated folks, there's 3 bets in the system.

      Some will hit A, some will hit B, some hit C, period. And all of this "looking to see if at some point in time during the day the line was where we wanted it at this certain sportsbook."

      Love sitting back, playing -110 odds, and not having to worry about ANY of that.


      just love rubbin it in don't ya stevex? i'll bet ya play labby too, right? Profit my man!
      Comment
      • stevex
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 05-02-10
        • 5122

        #4343
        jphil, not rubbing it in at all, but people I feel just make things wayyy to complicated when they don't need to be, you know?
        Comment
        • J.M. Disciple
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 11-16-10
          • 5154

          #4344
          blazz post # 4900

          @ Jphil middling to me is LAL at -3.5 and Spurs +6.5 so hoping lakers win by exactly 4 5 or 6 and i win both bets for SBP and JM. ... not sure how else to explain this
          Comment
          • J.M. Disciple
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 11-16-10
            • 5154

            #4345
            Crazy run right now by orlando.... down 6 but was down 22pts in the 4th. 21-4 run! Common!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
            Comment
            • jphil
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 07-12-09
              • 757

              #4346
              Originally posted by stevex
              jphil, not rubbing it in at all, but people I feel just make things wayyy to complicated when they don't need to be, you know?
              i know. just bustin. profit!
              Comment
              • jphil
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 07-12-09
                • 757

                #4347
                Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
                blazz post # 4900

                @ Jphil middling to me is LAL at -3.5 and Spurs +6.5 so hoping lakers win by exactly 4 5 or 6 and i win both bets for SBP and JM. ... not sure how else to explain this

                explained fully. kinda like luck of the draw hopefully. thanx. GL.
                Comment
                • Wallco99
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 01-01-11
                  • 7261

                  #4348
                  Originally posted by jphil
                  explained fully. kinda like luck of the draw hopefully. thanx. GL.
                  Where do you guys go for M/L odds for games played before 2006? Do you know any sites? Scoresandodds.com stops in August 2006, I need to go further back.
                  Comment
                  • jphil
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 07-12-09
                    • 757

                    #4349
                    Originally posted by Wallco99
                    Where do you guys go for M/L odds for games played before 2006? Do you know any sites? Scoresandodds.com stops in August 2006, I need to go further back.
                    i was thinkin covers.com, but someone mentioned not too long ago another site that i'd never heard of before. maybe that will trigger that person's memory who may catch this post. sorry.
                    Comment
                    • Wallco99
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 01-01-11
                      • 7261

                      #4350
                      Originally posted by jphil
                      i was thinkin covers.com, but someone mentioned not too long ago another site that i'd never heard of before. maybe that will trigger that person's memory who may catch this post. sorry.
                      Covers.com justs gives you the point spreads, not the M/L. I need M/L.
                      Comment
                      • jphil
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 07-12-09
                        • 757

                        #4351
                        Originally posted by Wallco99
                        Covers.com justs gives you the point spreads, not the M/L. I need M/L.

                        WilllBaaaa!!!!!!!!
                        Comment
                        • Wallco99
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 01-01-11
                          • 7261

                          #4352
                          Originally posted by jphil
                          WilllBaaaa!!!!!!!!
                          That's kind of who I was prodding at!!!
                          Comment
                          • UCcats
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 01-13-11
                            • 13

                            #4353
                            There you go milwaukee! Too bad it wont be a chase 110 bet though ha
                            Comment
                            • atari5200
                              Restricted User
                              • 09-15-10
                              • 464

                              #4354
                              hey guys, i've been away for a couple weeks. hope everyone is doing well..

                              What's with BET01? has anyone signed up at this book? what kind of odds are you getting with the 3 points?
                              anything from the JM emails are fishy, i'd trust you guys way more than anything i ever get from that clown.
                              thanks
                              Comment
                              • jphil
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 07-12-09
                                • 757

                                #4355
                                Originally posted by BlazerBall
                                would someone be so kind as to provide the post number describing the SBP system? i am not familiar with this system and am curious. thanks

                                post 4291.


                                SBP original / updated system.
                                SBP has key point spreads that show a win % over the long run. He uses these key point spreads in a 3 game progression with out buying points. Usually you can get -110 odds. His picks are posted daily in the service play section. If you see the spread at -5.5 and he listed it at -5 then you may have to buy 1/2 a pt. Once again 3 game progression based on certain key spreads that win statistically long run.
                                https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?...VE&hl=en#gid=2
                                Here is the spread sheet for SBP original so far


                                thread- http://forum.sbrforum.com/service-pl...ml#post8659107

                                check "service plays" in the sbr forum on a daily basis for each new sbp thread.

                                I'd post the pdf for ya but this wacky system won't let me attach & upload it.
                                Comment
                                • fotzan
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 12-29-10
                                  • 102

                                  #4356
                                  Now we have Portland as a B bet. That's my last one after that I think I am going to lower my wager....at least 40%....What do you think that Portlant will do? At pinnaclesports the spread is at +2,5 for Portland... DO you think it will drop or rise?
                                  Comment
                                  • fotzan
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 12-29-10
                                    • 102

                                    #4357
                                    Also I follow flat betting SBP with no chase things and no worries easy come easy go.
                                    Comment
                                    • chriscat423
                                      SBR Rookie
                                      • 01-28-11
                                      • 29

                                      #4358
                                      ya baby 2 for 2 bucks actually came through with a c bet and SA unfortunately beat my lakers....gdnight boys hopefully we can keep this up tmo
                                      Comment
                                      • J.M. Disciple
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 11-16-10
                                        • 5154

                                        #4359
                                        02/04/2011
                                        JM: Portland [B] vs indy +5.5
                                        LAC [A] vs atl +9.5

                                        SBP original / updated: both will be B bets tomorrow.

                                        With Portland Banged up still i am hoping the spread rises some. Going to wait until tomorrow before placing my bet. The spread is already dropping for LAC get on them early.

                                        Going to be interesting to see how Miami, spurs, and orlando do tomorrow. All playing back to back days in tough games. the spreads are pretty low right now vs crappy teams. I guess sports sites expect the teams to be wore out.
                                        Comment
                                        • J.M. Disciple
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 11-16-10
                                          • 5154

                                          #4360
                                          Chase 110:
                                          Toronto [C] M/L
                                          Comment
                                          • J.M. Disciple
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 11-16-10
                                            • 5154

                                            #4361
                                            I'll try and post all the plays together tomorrow around 3:30 eastern time.
                                            Comment
                                            • knugen
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-09-09
                                              • 2612

                                              #4362
                                              Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
                                              02/04/2011
                                              JM: Portland [B] vs indy +5.5
                                              LAC [A] vs atl +9.5

                                              SBP original / updated: both will be B bets tomorrow.

                                              With Portland Banged up still i am hoping the spread rises some. Going to wait until tomorrow before placing my bet. The spread is already dropping for LAC get on them early.

                                              Going to be interesting to see how Miami, spurs, and orlando do tomorrow. All playing back to back days in tough games. the spreads are pretty low right now vs crappy teams. I guess sports sites expect the teams to be wore out.
                                              This +9,5 is That your line before buying point? My opening line are only +7,5 so +10,5 after buying
                                              Comment
                                              • Wallco99
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 01-01-11
                                                • 7261

                                                #4363
                                                Chase 110 - Plays for 2/4/11
                                                2010-11 System to date: 51-0
                                                System Rules can be found in post #4160

                                                Minnesota @ Toronto M/L (C)
                                                Comment
                                                • krzychu78
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 01-08-10
                                                  • 291

                                                  #4364
                                                  JM's NBA system:
                                                  02/03/2011 San Antonio @ LA Lakers - V3, B bet - WIN
                                                  02/03/2011 Milwaukee @ Golden State - V1, C bet - WIN

                                                  V1record so far (finished series): 37-3
                                                  (A): 18-22
                                                  (B): 15-7
                                                  (C): 4-3
                                                  Lost series:
                                                  PHO 11/17-20
                                                  DET 12/07-10
                                                  UTA 01/17-21

                                                  V2 record so far (finished series): 16-1
                                                  (A): 12-5
                                                  (B): 2-3
                                                  (C): 2-1
                                                  Lost series:
                                                  MIN 10/30-11/03

                                                  V3 record so far (finished series): 36-2
                                                  (A): 18-20-0 (W-L-P)
                                                  (B): 16-3-1
                                                  (W-L-P)
                                                  (C): 2-1-1 (W-L-P)
                                                  Lost series:
                                                  CLE 12/04-07
                                                  TOR 01/29-02/02 (B bet and C bet were pushes according to covers.com)

                                                  Next JM's plays:
                                                  02/04/2011 Portland @ Indiana - V2, B bet
                                                  02/04/2011 LA Clippers @ Atlanta - V1, A bet
                                                  Comment
                                                  • GGPLAYER
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 03-26-09
                                                    • 2981

                                                    #4365
                                                    Originally posted by Wilba
                                                    Sheesh that sucks GG.. Bad luck, however it seems very odd to me that you would play V2 A bets, why would you do this? I hope you are not basing this on the fact that they were 12-2 in the early part of the season or whatever they were (it was something like this, cant be bothered looking it up). i) this is a sample size of 14 games, which is irrelevant to long term stats, and ii) the fact that 12/14 over that period won means that out of the next 14, they are more likely to dip below their average of 61.5%.. The long term A win rates of V1/2/3 are pretty much all the same.

                                                    I said a month ago that I was going to follow V1 and V3 A bets until they showed a profit, the reason I left V2 A bets out is because they were performing over expectation already. In my opinion (only an opinion) if you were going to play any A's at this point in time/last few weeks, then V1 and V3 were the only ones worth playing. Given that the V1/3 A's have just gone on a small streak, the window for them being worthwhile is rapidly closing I would think
                                                    Yeah pretty much playing the V2's based on their success this year. Even though I knew Por was not a great bet since they just beat SA the previous game. GREAT point on the fact that it has to even out. As you said V1 and V3's just had a nice streak so I am laying off those A bets for a little bit until I feel it's a good spot to try those.
                                                    Thankfully Mil and SA convered last night so my week is doing much better.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • GGPLAYER
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 03-26-09
                                                      • 2981

                                                      #4366
                                                      Originally posted by Newbie1825
                                                      Hey guys I wanted to ask what time of day is the best time to put in a bet to get the best spread?

                                                      Typically in sports you bet fav's early and wait on dogs. With these JM plays it is all over the place. Personally I messed up on this Tor series twice. First off I only buy 2 points (personal choice) but the other night the line moved from 11 to 10. I jumped on it thinking it would not come back only to see on Pinny and BookMaker it moved back to +11 right before game time. If I got it then I would have pushed my bet and not lost. Yesterday SA moved from +3.5 to 3 and Mil moved down to +6.5 from 7. This time I waited till about a half hour before tip-off and got Mil at +7 (even went to +7.5 on some books) and SA at +3.5. So it pays to wait for all the late action to occur sometimes. Really it's a thing you have to monitor and jump on when you think it's the best line possible. Believe me I know the pain of losing a bet when grabbing it at the wrong time but it happens. I guess I would say don't panic if the line goes against you early. Wait on it because most times it will come back. Average bettor waits till later in the day to bet and usually will take a fav when at home. That works into our advantage.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Wallco99
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 01-01-11
                                                        • 7261

                                                        #4367
                                                        It wouldn't have qualified anyway. Milwaukee (B) bet could also potentially be our Toronto (D) bet. Because of the new "head to head filter", they would not be an (A) bet until Toronto series has concluded, provided they also continued to lose (ATS and S/U). I know it is irrelavent now, since Milwaukee did win, but I am just trying to get everyone used to the new filter, and showing the importance of checking upcoming schedules in this system.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Wallco99
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 01-01-11
                                                          • 7261

                                                          #4368
                                                          Chase 110
                                                          Backtested results for 2005-06 Season

                                                          Here is the data for the 2005-06 season. The data for 2006-10, can be found in post # 3916, just add these numbers to previous post for grand totals. I will post seasons further back as I finish results.

                                                          Chase 110 2005-06 Season
                                                          Season Results 92-3

                                                          (A) 61-34
                                                          (B) 17-17
                                                          (C) 10-7
                                                          (D) 4-3

                                                          Total Profit: +26 Units

                                                          Losses:
                                                          Toronto (11/2/05-11/5/05)
                                                          Chicago (12/26/05-1/2/06)
                                                          New Orleans (3/8/06-3/14/06)
                                                          Comment
                                                          • UCcats
                                                            SBR Rookie
                                                            • 01-13-11
                                                            • 13

                                                            #4369
                                                            Is anyone worried about the clippers' series? They play 3 of the top five teams in the east in atlanta boston and miami but the system is proven. I'm just hoping for a win tonight.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Wilba
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 10-29-10
                                                              • 702

                                                              #4370
                                                              who is playing who in a road trip has nothing to do with anything. Good team/bad team is irrelevant. The clips series = same win % of 97% as every other
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Newbie1825
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 01-28-11
                                                                • 299

                                                                #4371
                                                                any SBP OR TSP bets today?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Wilba
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 10-29-10
                                                                  • 702

                                                                  #4372
                                                                  Originally posted by Wallco99
                                                                  Covers.com justs gives you the point spreads, not the M/L. I need M/L.
                                                                  firsty, thanks on behalf of everyone for posting the 2005/6 results and for sharing your system. It is appreciated.

                                                                  secondly, I do not know of a site that posts ML's past that (I use covers for all that type of stuff) but I can tell you this - within a small variation, a team which is -6.5 will always have the same ML as any other team who is -6.5, and a team that is -4 will have close to the same ML as any other team that is -4. There are small variations, but as a generalization for backtesting purposes, just using the same ML's as you find for the same spread on other teams will definitely be accurate enough. Hope this helps to some extent. I am confident that if you just use the same ML's for matching point spreads that this will not affect the integrity of the backtest
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Wilba
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 10-29-10
                                                                    • 702

                                                                    #4373
                                                                    throw wallco some points if you appreciate the info on the backtest. backtesting is time consuming
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Wilba
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 10-29-10
                                                                      • 702

                                                                      #4374
                                                                      Originally posted by GGPLAYER
                                                                      Yeah pretty much playing the V2's based on their success this year. Even though I knew Por was not a great bet since they just beat SA the previous game. GREAT point on the fact that it has to even out. As you said V1 and V3's just had a nice streak so I am laying off those A bets for a little bit until I feel it's a good spot to try those.
                                                                      Thankfully Mil and SA convered last night so my week is doing much better.
                                                                      glad to hear it. and yes i would be wary of particularly the V2 A bets - runs like that are always only temporary
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Newbie1825
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 01-28-11
                                                                        • 299

                                                                        #4375
                                                                        any SBP OR TSP bets today?
                                                                        Comment
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