John Morrison 2010 NBA
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Wallco99SBR Hall of Famer
- 01-01-11
- 7261
#4341Comment -
jphilSBR Wise Guy
- 07-12-09
- 757
#4342A
B
C
Lets not make it complicated folks, there's 3 bets in the system.
Some will hit A, some will hit B, some hit C, period. And all of this "looking to see if at some point in time during the day the line was where we wanted it at this certain sportsbook."
Love sitting back, playing -110 odds, and not having to worry about ANY of that.
just love rubbin it in don't ya stevex? i'll bet ya play labby too, right?Profit my man!
Comment -
stevexSBR Hall of Famer
- 05-02-10
- 5122
#4343jphil, not rubbing it in at all, but people I feel just make things wayyy to complicated when they don't need to be, you know?Comment -
J.M. DiscipleSBR Hall of Famer
- 11-16-10
- 5154
#4344blazz post # 4900
@ Jphil middling to me is LAL at -3.5 and Spurs +6.5 so hoping lakers win by exactly 4 5 or 6 and i win both bets for SBP and JM. ... not sure how else to explain thisComment -
J.M. DiscipleSBR Hall of Famer
- 11-16-10
- 5154
#4345Crazy run right now by orlando.... down 6 but was down 22pts in the 4th. 21-4 run! Common!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
jphilSBR Wise Guy
- 07-12-09
- 757
#4347Comment -
Wallco99SBR Hall of Famer
- 01-01-11
- 7261
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jphilSBR Wise Guy
- 07-12-09
- 757
#4349Comment -
Wallco99SBR Hall of Famer
- 01-01-11
- 7261
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UCcatsSBR Rookie
- 01-13-11
- 13
#4353There you go milwaukee! Too bad it wont be a chase 110 bet though haComment -
atari5200Restricted User
- 09-15-10
- 464
#4354hey guys, i've been away for a couple weeks. hope everyone is doing well..
What's with BET01? has anyone signed up at this book? what kind of odds are you getting with the 3 points?
anything from the JM emails are fishy, i'd trust you guys way more than anything i ever get from that clown.
thanksComment -
jphilSBR Wise Guy
- 07-12-09
- 757
#4355
post 4291.
SBP original / updated system.
SBP has key point spreads that show a win % over the long run. He uses these key point spreads in a 3 game progression with out buying points. Usually you can get -110 odds. His picks are posted daily in the service play section. If you see the spread at -5.5 and he listed it at -5 then you may have to buy 1/2 a pt. Once again 3 game progression based on certain key spreads that win statistically long run.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?...VE&hl=en#gid=2
Here is the spread sheet for SBP original so far
thread- http://forum.sbrforum.com/service-pl...ml#post8659107
check "service plays" in the sbr forum on a daily basis for each new sbp thread.
I'd post the pdf for ya but this wacky system won't let me attach & upload it.Comment -
fotzanSBR High Roller
- 12-29-10
- 102
#4356Now we have Portland as a B bet. That's my last one after that I think I am going to lower my wager....at least 40%....What do you think that Portlant will do? At pinnaclesports the spread is at +2,5 for Portland... DO you think it will drop or rise?Comment -
fotzanSBR High Roller
- 12-29-10
- 102
#4357Also I follow flat betting SBP with no chase things and no worries easy come easy go.Comment -
chriscat423SBR Rookie
- 01-28-11
- 29
#4358ya baby 2 for 2 bucks actually came through with a c bet and SA unfortunately beat my lakers....gdnight boys hopefully we can keep this up tmoComment -
J.M. DiscipleSBR Hall of Famer
- 11-16-10
- 5154
#435902/04/2011
JM: Portland [B] vs indy +5.5
LAC [A] vs atl +9.5
SBP original / updated: both will be B bets tomorrow.
With Portland Banged up still i am hoping the spread rises some. Going to wait until tomorrow before placing my bet. The spread is already dropping for LAC get on them early.
Going to be interesting to see how Miami, spurs, and orlando do tomorrow. All playing back to back days in tough games. the spreads are pretty low right now vs crappy teams. I guess sports sites expect the teams to be wore out.Comment -
J.M. DiscipleSBR Hall of Famer
- 11-16-10
- 5154
#4360Chase 110:
Toronto [C] M/LComment -
J.M. DiscipleSBR Hall of Famer
- 11-16-10
- 5154
#4361I'll try and post all the plays together tomorrow around 3:30 eastern time.Comment -
knugenSBR MVP
- 12-09-09
- 2612
#436202/04/2011
JM: Portland [B] vs indy +5.5
LAC [A] vs atl +9.5
SBP original / updated: both will be B bets tomorrow.
With Portland Banged up still i am hoping the spread rises some. Going to wait until tomorrow before placing my bet. The spread is already dropping for LAC get on them early.
Going to be interesting to see how Miami, spurs, and orlando do tomorrow. All playing back to back days in tough games. the spreads are pretty low right now vs crappy teams. I guess sports sites expect the teams to be wore out.Comment -
Wallco99SBR Hall of Famer
- 01-01-11
- 7261
#4363Chase 110 - Plays for 2/4/11
2010-11 System to date: 51-0
System Rules can be found in post #4160
Minnesota @ Toronto M/L (C)Comment -
krzychu78SBR Sharp
- 01-08-10
- 291
#4364JM's NBA system:
02/03/2011 San Antonio @ LA Lakers - V3, B bet - WIN
02/03/2011 Milwaukee @ Golden State - V1, C bet - WIN
V1record so far (finished series): 37-3
(A): 18-22
(B): 15-7
(C): 4-3
Lost series:
PHO 11/17-20
DET 12/07-10
UTA 01/17-21
V2 record so far (finished series): 16-1
(A): 12-5
(B): 2-3
(C): 2-1
Lost series:
MIN 10/30-11/03
V3 record so far (finished series): 36-2
(A): 18-20-0 (W-L-P)
(B): 16-3-1 (W-L-P)
(C): 2-1-1 (W-L-P)
Lost series:
CLE 12/04-07
TOR 01/29-02/02 (B bet and C bet were pushes according to covers.com)
Next JM's plays:
02/04/2011 Portland @ Indiana - V2, B bet
02/04/2011 LA Clippers @ Atlanta - V1, A betComment -
GGPLAYERSBR MVP
- 03-26-09
- 2981
#4365Sheesh that sucks GG.. Bad luck, however it seems very odd to me that you would play V2 A bets, why would you do this? I hope you are not basing this on the fact that they were 12-2 in the early part of the season or whatever they were (it was something like this, cant be bothered looking it up). i) this is a sample size of 14 games, which is irrelevant to long term stats, and ii) the fact that 12/14 over that period won means that out of the next 14, they are more likely to dip below their average of 61.5%.. The long term A win rates of V1/2/3 are pretty much all the same.
I said a month ago that I was going to follow V1 and V3 A bets until they showed a profit, the reason I left V2 A bets out is because they were performing over expectation already. In my opinion (only an opinion) if you were going to play any A's at this point in time/last few weeks, then V1 and V3 were the only ones worth playing. Given that the V1/3 A's have just gone on a small streak, the window for them being worthwhile is rapidly closing I would think
Thankfully Mil and SA convered last night so my week is doing much better.Comment -
GGPLAYERSBR MVP
- 03-26-09
- 2981
#4366
Typically in sports you bet fav's early and wait on dogs. With these JM plays it is all over the place. Personally I messed up on this Tor series twice. First off I only buy 2 points (personal choice) but the other night the line moved from 11 to 10. I jumped on it thinking it would not come back only to see on Pinny and BookMaker it moved back to +11 right before game time. If I got it then I would have pushed my bet and not lost. Yesterday SA moved from +3.5 to 3 and Mil moved down to +6.5 from 7. This time I waited till about a half hour before tip-off and got Mil at +7 (even went to +7.5 on some books) and SA at +3.5. So it pays to wait for all the late action to occur sometimes. Really it's a thing you have to monitor and jump on when you think it's the best line possible. Believe me I know the pain of losing a bet when grabbing it at the wrong time but it happens. I guess I would say don't panic if the line goes against you early. Wait on it because most times it will come back. Average bettor waits till later in the day to bet and usually will take a fav when at home. That works into our advantage.Comment -
Wallco99SBR Hall of Famer
- 01-01-11
- 7261
#4367It wouldn't have qualified anyway. Milwaukee (B) bet could also potentially be our Toronto (D) bet. Because of the new "head to head filter", they would not be an (A) bet until Toronto series has concluded, provided they also continued to lose (ATS and S/U). I know it is irrelavent now, since Milwaukee did win, but I am just trying to get everyone used to the new filter, and showing the importance of checking upcoming schedules in this system.Comment -
Wallco99SBR Hall of Famer
- 01-01-11
- 7261
#4368Chase 110
Backtested results for 2005-06 Season
Here is the data for the 2005-06 season. The data for 2006-10, can be found in post # 3916, just add these numbers to previous post for grand totals. I will post seasons further back as I finish results.
Chase 110 2005-06 Season
Season Results 92-3
(A) 61-34
(B) 17-17
(C) 10-7
(D) 4-3
Total Profit: +26 Units
Losses:
Toronto (11/2/05-11/5/05)
Chicago (12/26/05-1/2/06)
New Orleans (3/8/06-3/14/06)Comment -
UCcatsSBR Rookie
- 01-13-11
- 13
#4369Is anyone worried about the clippers' series? They play 3 of the top five teams in the east in atlanta boston and miami but the system is proven. I'm just hoping for a win tonight.Comment -
WilbaSBR Wise Guy
- 10-29-10
- 702
#4370who is playing who in a road trip has nothing to do with anything. Good team/bad team is irrelevant. The clips series = same win % of 97% as every otherComment -
Newbie1825SBR Sharp
- 01-28-11
- 299
#4371any SBP OR TSP bets today?Comment -
WilbaSBR Wise Guy
- 10-29-10
- 702
#4372
secondly, I do not know of a site that posts ML's past that (I use covers for all that type of stuff) but I can tell you this - within a small variation, a team which is -6.5 will always have the same ML as any other team who is -6.5, and a team that is -4 will have close to the same ML as any other team that is -4. There are small variations, but as a generalization for backtesting purposes, just using the same ML's as you find for the same spread on other teams will definitely be accurate enough. Hope this helps to some extent. I am confident that if you just use the same ML's for matching point spreads that this will not affect the integrity of the backtestComment -
WilbaSBR Wise Guy
- 10-29-10
- 702
#4373throw wallco some points if you appreciate the info on the backtest. backtesting is time consumingComment -
WilbaSBR Wise Guy
- 10-29-10
- 702
#4374Yeah pretty much playing the V2's based on their success this year. Even though I knew Por was not a great bet since they just beat SA the previous game. GREAT point on the fact that it has to even out. As you said V1 and V3's just had a nice streak so I am laying off those A bets for a little bit until I feel it's a good spot to try those.
Thankfully Mil and SA convered last night so my week is doing much better.Comment -
Newbie1825SBR Sharp
- 01-28-11
- 299
#4375any SBP OR TSP bets today?Comment
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