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02/03/11
San Antonio spurs v3 [B] vs La Lakers
Milwaukee v1 [C] vs GSWComment -
Bogut was out for the Milwaukee game vs Phoenix, not sure how this affects the play, I certainly took them. Seems like their lineup is in flux with previously injured players coming back like Jennings, Delfino and even Salmons I think, although they may not be 100% yet. And now Bogut is questionable for tommorow too and he is a pretty key player. I will be on them is some way I'm not saying to stay away at all, just throwing caution to the wind. Playing fantasy basketball this team is one of the most frustrating in terms of player rotations and starting lineup changes. Will be interesting to see what the line is, hopefully around +4 before buying points.Comment -
Last night was a kick in the teeth for me. I only play V2 A bets and B and C on V1,V2. Very painful to see your bets tank while the others cash with ease. Ok just had to get that out. On a more positive note SU FINALLY stopped losing.Comment -
God help us tonite.Comment -
Chase 110
2010-11 System to date: 51-0
System Rules can be found in post #4160
(2/2/11) Toronto +10 ½ (B) - Loss
(A) 27-25
(B) 15-10
(C) 6-3
(D) 3-0
There are no plays for 2/3/11
Next game:
(2/4/11) Minnesota @Toronto (C)
** Detroit and Milwaukee have lost two straight (S/U and ATS)**Comment -
+6,5 on san Antonio tonight!Comment -
You're right I shouldn't have stated it that way, I understand. But basically here is my take. JM sends out a version three to update his v1 and v2. It's not a new system, just an adjustment to the old one. Basically this says, forget everything I told you in the past, and bet any three game road trip. Seeing it that way, conference doesn't matter. I guess there are still people on here playing v1 and v2 only, but I guess I mistakingly assumed we were all just playing the latest version. And bear with me a little, we were being bombarded with the same questions 12 different ways over and over, yesterday, and I guess I was just trying to say, don't worry about it, just follow the lead of the people on here until you understand what you are doing, or understand how to read a post that includes ALL the system rules. Sorry if I confused anyone with that earlier post.Comment -
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What do you guys think of a teaser SA and Milwaukee? I haven't bet on either teams yet.Comment -
This year, system is 51-0. I backtested all data back to the 2006-07 season. I will hopefully be going even further back, when I get a little time in the next week. However, over that span, system is up a pretty good amount. With the exception of 2008-09 season, this was a bad year, a few M/L losses really crushed the number, this system has netted (+) units every other season. All my backtested data can be found in post #3916. All system rules can be found in post #4160. 6 of the total 14 losses had one game at a M/L during the series, and only once was there a M/L twice in a series loss: Sacramento 2006-07 (-155) and (-130). The rest were all (-110). It seems pretty good, but I do want to test it to a ten year. There were an extensive amount of losses by playing the favorite at (-110). I don't have the exact number on that, because I stopped counting when I saw that it wasn't productive. Also did test for point buying three and four game chase for this system, also, very unproductive, losses were too great, in fact, more losing seasons. But as I told everyone else, be careful jumping in mid season. We are yet to record a loss this year, and since every season has had at least one loss, I am sure one is inevitable, just don't know when. Hopefully not Toronto.Comment -
Chase 110
Does anyone on here know how to edit an older post, once the edit button goes away? I have a filter I want to add to Chase 110 Rules and can't get back into post #4160. The filter is as follows:
Head to head filter : When a team qualifies for Chase 110 (loses three straight ATS and S/U), look at that teams next four opponents. If any of those teams are a team which you are already playing, see if that teams series (D) bet will be concluded by the date they are supposed to face each other. If not, skip on playing the new team until the other team's series has concluded. At that time, if the new team is still on a losing streak ( both ATS and S/U) pick up your (A) bet at that point. Your chances of winning will be even higher, since that team will be on a longer losing streak, and system results say that majority of teams win a game within seven. Not to mention, you won't be placing bets on both sides of a game, one will definitely lose, and if these are both (D) bets, you are totally screwed. It almost happened last week, but Minnesota saved us from ingesting a whole box of Alka-Seltzer. I think this is a very important filter that no one should skip over, the risk is too high for the one unit win.
** Note: If two teams qualify the same day with their third loss, don't forget to check them against each other also. They could definitely be on a (D) bet the same day against each other.Comment -
JM's NBA system:
02/02/2011 Toronto @ Atlanta - V3, C bet - PUSH
02/02/2011 Milwaukee @ Phoenix - V1, B bet - LOSS
02/02/2011 Dallas @ New York - V1, A bet - WIN
02/02/2011 Chicago @ LA Clippers - V1, A bet - WIN
02/02/2011 Portland @ Denver - V2, A bet - LOSS
V1record so far (finished series): 36-3
(A): 18-21
(B): 15-6
(C): 3-3
Lost series:
PHO 11/17-20
DET 12/07-10
UTA 01/17-21
V2 record so far (finished series): 16-1
(A): 12-5
(B): 2-3
(C): 2-1
Lost series:
MIN 10/30-11/03
V3 record so far (finished series): 35-2
(A): 18-19-0 (W-L-P)
(B): 15-3-1 (W-L-P)
(C): 2-1-1 (W-L-P)
Lost series:
CLE 12/04-07
TOR 01/29-02/02 (B bet and C bet were pushes according to covers.com)
Next JM's plays:
02/03/2011 San Antonio @ LA Lakers - V3, B bet
02/03/2011 Milwaukee @ Golden State - V1, C betComment -
Dam Bucks I hate going to a c bet with a sucky team, and if they lose then they will be a Chase 110 bet and I will problably lose more money betting on them!Comment -
Newbie. Two different systems = 2 different labby lines or chases or however you do it.Comment -
Hey guys I wanted to ask what time of day is the best time to put in a bet to get the best spread?Comment -
What are the top 10 books to use for JM basketball (able to buy 3 pts)? Any incite would be much appreciated. I currently use sportsbook.com and avoid betus due to over juicing. any thoughts?Comment -
god help us with bucks...I hope they are not like UtahComment -
i use sportsbetting....buying 3 pts is -170 not bad...ive seen -220Comment -
please Bucks its all on u 2night boysComment -
BIG DAY TODAY!!!! ONLY 3 games but lots of bets.
Next JM's plays:
02/03/2011 San Antonio @ LA Lakers - V3, B bet +6.5
02/03/2011 Milwaukee @ Golden State - V1, C bet +9
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*great job KRYZYCHU!!!!
SBP updated: LAL -3.5 [A]
SBP original: ORL -1 [A]
*Small bet on SBP tryin to middle LAL and SAS.Comment -
would someone be so kind as to provide the post number describing the SBP system? i am not familiar with this system and am curious. thanksComment -
Sheesh that sucks GG.. Bad luck, however it seems very odd to me that you would play V2 A bets, why would you do this? I hope you are not basing this on the fact that they were 12-2 in the early part of the season or whatever they were (it was something like this, cant be bothered looking it up). i) this is a sample size of 14 games, which is irrelevant to long term stats, and ii) the fact that 12/14 over that period won means that out of the next 14, they are more likely to dip below their average of 61.5%.. The long term A win rates of V1/2/3 are pretty much all the same.
I said a month ago that I was going to follow V1 and V3 A bets until they showed a profit, the reason I left V2 A bets out is because they were performing over expectation already. In my opinion (only an opinion) if you were going to play any A's at this point in time/last few weeks, then V1 and V3 were the only ones worth playing. Given that the V1/3 A's have just gone on a small streak, the window for them being worthwhile is rapidly closing I would thinkComment -
mistake in postComment -
A
B
C
Lets not make it complicated folks, there's 3 bets in the system.
Some will hit A, some will hit B, some hit C, period. And all of this "looking to see if at some point in time during the day the line was where we wanted it at this certain sportsbook."
Love sitting back, playing -110 odds, and not having to worry about ANY of that.Comment -
cool thanks, appreciate the info. Ill go back to post #3916 didnt realise that was there, apologies for asking something that was already posted. (i was away for a week so wasnt keeping up with the thread)
and yeah your ML filter is an interesting idea, I stopped trying to backtest when I saw bad stretches from 2006-9, but by the sound of it your ML filter might cut quite a few of these losses out.
nice work on the research and thanks for sharingComment -
I made a mistake with my previous post - sorry! Got confused with the Tor/Bucks series' with a comment I saw
Anyway I was just saying that I think people should be a little careful with this Bucks play today, I realise that for a lot of people the A was a push or loss, but I think on these series where there was a dicey win/loss depending on what spread you got, I think continuing the series is quite risky.
Not saying to people dont play it or anything, but maybe be a little careful with it - keep in mind that in the official rules, you buy 3 points on the best spread of the day. The bucks A line opned at +4.5, buy 3 makes +7.5 which was a win. (I was lucky enough to get this but I realise many would not have been). So by the official rules the series was a win on A. Of course if you play w.out the points what spread you got is irrelevantComment -
sh*t sorry stevex, my last post about the lines was a mistake, I got confused and thought people were still talking about the toronto series.
My mistake, please ignore my previous post, stevex was completely right
edit - I deleted the post I made a mistake with as to not cause confusion. Sorry bout thatComment -
well, a big part of it is luck, as it is impossible to know in advance which way the line will move, but I feel that after the lines settle overnight, but before the public jump on them in the last few hours before the game, is the best time to bet on them. So say about 3-4 hours before tipoff, in my opinionComment -
tryin to middle LAL and SAS. {jmd quote**
jmd (or anyone), please explain your procedure when middleing out lal/sas, at your convienence. i understand the concept, but not the process. thanx.Comment
