[stomp24]

I have been gathering data for the NBA by quarter for some time now.
I have found that you can get a nice success rate using this method.
I'm just starting a thread to document some picks, to see how it goes, and what you guys think.
I started it off in the handicap forum this morning: Hit 3-1 on the Griz / Mem Game. Shoulda been 4-0, but Gasol fouled on a 3 pointer with 1 second left, sending the game to OT.
Here are the picks for the rest of the day:


Phil 76ers 2nd quarter

Toronto washington Over 2nd Q

Indiana 2Q

San Antonio / Indiana Over 2Q

Milwaukee 1Q

Milwaukee 2Q

Phx / Mil Over 2Q

Orlando 1Q

Orlando 3Q

[stomp24]

Record So far 8-5

Sunday Picks:
Orlando 1Q
NY Mem 1Q Under
NY Mem 3Q Under
Mem 2Q
Por 1Q
Por LAC Over 1Q

[stomp24]

3-3 on Sunday (some of you may have pushed on Mem 3Q under, but im counting it as a loss, as the line dropped right before game time)
Running record: 11-8 (58%)

[stomp24]

Monday Plays:
Hou / Wash 2Q over
Chicago 3Q (if theyre getting smacked at half, I would also do 2nd Half)
SAS/CHI Under 1Q
SAS/CHI under 4Q
Indiana 4Q
Indiana 2H (as long as theyre not already winning by a lot)

[stomp24]

5-0-1 Today. Plus both bonus bets covered if you would've taken them.
Total record now is 16-8-1 (67%)

[stomp24]

Wed Picks 11/28

Stronger picks:
Charlotte 3Q ***
Atl Charlotte Under 3Q **
Wash/NO Over 1Q *
wash/No Over 2Q *
Wash/NO over 1H *

Other picks all 1*
NY Phi 1H Over
Dallas/Hou Under 4Q
Dallas 2Q
Milwaukee 2Q
Minnesota 2Q
San Antonio / Minneosta Under 4Q
OKC 1H
Phx LAC over 2Q

[stomp24]

Ok so overall the day ended up being up because the 3* bet covered. The 2* pushed.
Here is what I’m finding overall was 6-6-1
With the adjustments for the stars: 8–6-2.

However doing some analytics on the analytics:
It appears the spreads went 4-1 ( with adjustment for 3* it went 6-1), hence the totals went 2-5-2.
The totals where I am now seeing (at least on bookmakers) the quarter totals are far off of just 1/4 of the total spread. They are sometimes adjusting by 2-3 points. Looks like they are catching up faster than I can take advantage.

So I think I will start tracking how the picks are doing for spread vs totals.

Also I have now added a new feature to my stats: what is the ATS in the situation if I made the line 1 point more difficult.

Lastly on a bright note the strong picks have been doing well, I probably need to start narrowing down which picks and the correct number of stars to give it.

[stomp24]

Record (with star adjustment): 19-14-3 (58%)I know i said i should probably stop with the Over/Unders, but today there are no significant Sides, so I'll keep it small and hope the Totals improve:2Q Stats.Clippers are 13-4 going Over (8-1 over on the road)Sacramento is 14-3 going Over (6-2 over at home)These stats are so strong it would normally be a 3* pick, however, since the LAclippers played last night, and i dont have that much data on B2B yet for this season, I will downgrade to 2*And the game line is 236, which means each quarter should be 59, and 1Q is set at 60, so I'll downgrade to 1*If you can only bet Halves ... i would take this down to 1*Clippers are 14-3 going over in 1H (8-1 over on the road)Sacramento is (13-5 going over 1H, 4-4 when home, due mostly to terrible 1Q, but small dataset).So my personal bet will be on the 2Q instead of the 1H.3Q StatsClippers are 5-12 on the over (3-6 on the road)Sacramento is 8-10 on the over (1-7 at home)So these are pretty strong under stats. however the 3Q is set at 58 instead of 59, so again 1*.As mentioned before i will be adjusting my stats to see how the spread changes when accounting for vegas adjustments such as the ones above.

[stomp24]

2-0 today. Still no losing days!
Adjusted Record now 21-14-3 (60%)

[stomp24]

Overall 6-3 today
After adjustment for * values that’s 7-5.
Brings the yearly total to 28-19-3 (60%)
And still no losing days!

[TK]

Looks great. Any other bets?

[stomp24]

Thanks TK!
Looks like i forgot to post to this thread, but i had some picks in a different forum:https://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f...996577#2996577
Brought my yearly total to 30-20-3
Trying a new method today (even though if it aint broke youre not supposed to fix it)
OKC 3Q
LA Clippers Vs New Orleans Over 1H

[stomp24]

2-0 Today ... still not a losing a day!
Record now up to 32-20-3 (61.5%)

[stomp24]

Todays Picks:
Chi/Ind Under 1H
Orlando 3Q
Dallas 2Q

[stomp24]

3-0 today
Season: 35-20-3 (63.6%)

[stomp24]

Today is a make-me or break-me day!
All lines if stated or not, come from bookmaker.eu

*	wash/atl over 1q		59.5
*	wash/atl under 3q		56.5
*	brooklyn 1Q		2
**	OKC 3Q		-1.5
*	new orleans 3Q		-1.5
**	dal / NO Over 1H		117
**	Det/Mil Over 1H		115.5
*	Toronto 1H		-3.5
*	Toronto 2Q		-1.5
***	memphis 1H		-1
*	mem/LAC over 2Q		53
**	mem lac under 3Q		51
*	san antonio 1H		5

[consensusontap]

nice work keep the info coming

[TK]

Great work! Impressive. Why so many picks today? Just curious if you expanded your selection criteria.

Good stuff!

[stomp24]

Actually no, i actually tightened the constraints a few days ago. I am now taking covering spread by 2 points, and opposing team not covering by 2 points, both when using overall and using home/away stats.
I think it may just be an anomaly because there are so many games tonight

[stomp24]

Another profitable day, but a little disappointed in the percentage today.
Picks were: 6-6-1Adjusted for the stars: 10-8-1Running total is now: 45-28-4 (61.6%)

As just a side note: Almost all the W/L were either clearly right or clearly wrong.
There was 1 win & 1 loss that both lost by 1 0.5.
There was also another 2 Losses (and 0 wins) that lost by 2 points or less (on totals only, 2 points on a spread is a lot).
Which means potentially could've been 12-6. I measure this daily only to see how strong/lucky the picks are, and how to adjust the logic. In this case, it just seems like standard variability.

[jackson55bear]

Any plays today with the short card?

[TK]

It's not realistic to assume every single day will be highly profitable. I think you are showing us that there is some value in your system, as its tracking rather nicely over time. Keep up the great work!

[stomp24]

Thanks for the words of encouragement tk. Nothing today jacks.
Houston Utah have so much variance and so much potential based on last year I try to stay away.
Phoenix without Devin booker will require some time to gather data. And NY Boston is just an absurd line (14).

[stomp24]

*	det 2Q	pick
*	Phil / Det 1H Over	112
*	ind 4Q	pick
***	Charlotte 3Q	pick
**	mepmhis 1H	+3
*	dallas 2Q	no line yet, but should be +0.5
*	dallas 1H	+1

[TK]

Thanks. Dallas game is tomorrow?

[Jaswave125]

Keep em coming I like your bets and its Winning.

[stomp24]

Sorry for the extra game (dal/hou); I’m currently in the UK and the time zone change made it look like that game was today.
Today’s results 4-1
Adjusted for stars: 5-3
Still no losing days!
Overall adjusted record: 50-31-4 (61.7%)

[Jaswave125]

I just wanted to ask what does single * mean a ** and a ***?

[TK]

No worries. Thanks for posting!

[Jaswave125]

No Games for today?

[stomp24]

*	denver 1Q
*	cleveland 1Q
*	brooklyn 1Q
*	New york 2Q
*	brk nyk under 2Q
*	brk nyk over 3Q
*	boston chi U 1Q
*	boston chi U 2Q
*	boston chi U 1H
*	lakers/memphis under 1Q
*	lakers memphis over 2Q
*	portland 1Q
*	minn 3Q
**	laclippers 3Q
*	mia / lac under 3Q
*	mia /lac under 4Q

[stomp24]

sorry rushed back home to get these up, some just started a a few minutes ago.
jaswave, 1* means its 1 unit pick. 2* means its a 2 unit pick etc.

[stomp24]

posting again with the lines

*	denver 1Q	-2
*	cleveland 1Q	2.5
*	brooklyn 1Q	1
*	New york 2Q	-0.5
*	brk nyk under 2Q	54.5
*	brk nyk over 3Q	55
*	boston chi U 1Q	52.5
*	boston chi U 2Q	51.5
*	boston chi U 1H	104
*	lakers/memphis under 1Q	54
*	lakers memphis over 2Q	53
*	portland 1Q	-0.5
*	minn 3Q	0.5
**	laclippers 3Q	-2.5
*	mia / lac under 3Q	54
*	mia /lac under 4Q	53

[Jaswave125]

Thanks ypu have already won some lf. Your 1 quarters

[Miavia]

Thank for the picks....Missed on some of the earlier games but going for a ride with the rest of them....