Nuggets vs Thunder Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 2025-05-05T13:41:09+00:00

Nuggets vs Thunder Game 1 prediction from SBR's Mike Spector:

Over 225 points (-110 DraftKings)

"Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinal series has the ultimate "rest vs. rust" question as a backdrop. Denver plays on just one day of rest after eliminating the Los Angeles Clippers, while Oklahoma City has been off for eight days after sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies.

Instead of wondering what that means from a point-spread perspective, the best value lies with the Over.

Denver and Los Angeles covered the Over by 14.5 points in Saturday's Game 7. The Nuggets impressively scored 120 points despite getting just 16 from a foul-plagued Nikola Jokic. Their balance was on display as six players scored in double figures, with Aaron Gordon's 22 the high.

While the Under has gone 4-1 in Oklahoma City's last five games, these two teams cashed the Over in two of their previous three regular-season meetings despite the total being 240.5 points or more in two of those three games.

Suppose Oklahoma City's rest advantage wins out, and this game turns into a rout, just like its first two home playoff wins, which came by a combined 70 points.

In that case, I like the Over even more, as Denver would likely rest its best defenders to live to fight another day.

The Over cashed in 58.2% of Denver's games (32-23) when it had just one day of rest this season. I expect it to be the right side of the total again tonight."

**SBR Andy** · 2025-05-05T15:12:16+00:00

Nuggets vs Thunder Game 1 player prop picks from SBR's Rob Paul:

Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 rebounds (-135 BetMGM)

"Could Jokic make a statement in this series, with the three-time MVP unlikely to win the award this year despite putting together the best statistical season of his career? He might not be going one-on-one with SGA, but look for Jokic to continue his dominant statistical output in Game 1, especially when it comes to cleaning the glass.

For as dominant as the Thunder are, they aren't the best rebounding team- they ranked outside the top 10 in rebounds per game (44.8) in the regular season and gave up the 11th-most per game to opponents (44.9). They really struggled with big men like Jokic, too, allowing the eighth-most boards per game to fives (15.28). Jokic went Over 12.5 rebounds in three of four regular-season games against OKC, averaging 15.8 boards against them."

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 assists (+105 bet365)

"While SGA is better known for lighting up the scoreboard himself than setting up others to do so, the plus money odds at our best sports betting sites are tough to pass on given this matchup. The Nuggets allowed the second-most assists per game to opponents in the regular season (29), and the third-most to point guards (9.56).

In four regular-season games, SGA averaged exactly 6.5 apples per game against Denver, but his uptick in minutes in the playoffs should help him top 6.5 in Game 1. We could also see Gilgeous-Alexander taking on a slightly reduced scoring role and upping his facilitating due to Denver's success in slowing opposing point guards' scoring output; the Nuggets allowed the seventh-fewest PPG to point guards in the regular season (24.07)."

Jamal Murray Under 20.5 points (-130 BetMGM)

"While SGA and Jokic should be running up MVP numbers in Game 1, I don't expect Jamal Murray to have much of an impact against the league's best defense. The Thunder ranked No. 1 in the NBA in defensive rating (107.5) during the regular season while allowing the third-fewest points per game (107.6), which included giving up just the second-fewest PPG to point guards (23.10).

Although Murray popped off for 43 in Game 4 against the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round, he was wildly inconsistent in the series, and OKC is an even tougher matchup. In three regular-season games against OKC, Murray scored fewer than 20.5 twice and shot worse than 36% from the floor in both those games. Expect SGA and Lu Dort to be all over him in Game 1."