Nuggets vs Thunder Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 05-05-25, 08:41 AM

Nuggets vs Thunder Game 1 prediction from SBR's Mike Spector:

Over 225 points (-110 DraftKings)

"Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinal series has the ultimate "rest vs. rust" question as a backdrop. Denver plays on just one day of rest after eliminating the Los Angeles Clippers, while Oklahoma City has been off for eight days after sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies.

Instead of wondering what that means from a point-spread perspective, the best value lies with the Over.

Denver and Los Angeles covered the Over by 14.5 points in Saturday's Game 7. The Nuggets impressively scored 120 points despite getting just 16 from a foul-plagued Nikola Jokic. Their balance was on display as six players scored in double figures, with Aaron Gordon's 22 the high.

While the Under has gone 4-1 in Oklahoma City's last five games, these two teams cashed the Over in two of their previous three regular-season meetings despite the total being 240.5 points or more in two of those three games.

Suppose Oklahoma City's rest advantage wins out, and this game turns into a rout, just like its first two home playoff wins, which came by a combined 70 points.

In that case, I like the Over even more, as Denver would likely rest its best defenders to live to fight another day.

The Over cashed in 58.2% of Denver's games (32-23) when it had just one day of rest this season. I expect it to be the right side of the total again tonight."

**SBR Andy** · 05-05-25, 10:12 AM

Nuggets vs Thunder Game 1 player prop picks from SBR's Rob Paul:

Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 rebounds (-135 BetMGM)

"Could Jokic make a statement in this series, with the three-time MVP unlikely to win the award this year despite putting together the best statistical season of his career? He might not be going one-on-one with SGA, but look for Jokic to continue his dominant statistical output in Game 1, especially when it comes to cleaning the glass.

For as dominant as the Thunder are, they aren't the best rebounding team- they ranked outside the top 10 in rebounds per game (44.8) in the regular season and gave up the 11th-most per game to opponents (44.9). They really struggled with big men like Jokic, too, allowing the eighth-most boards per game to fives (15.28). Jokic went Over 12.5 rebounds in three of four regular-season games against OKC, averaging 15.8 boards against them."

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 assists (+105 bet365)

"While SGA is better known for lighting up the scoreboard himself than setting up others to do so, the plus money odds at our best sports betting sites are tough to pass on given this matchup. The Nuggets allowed the second-most assists per game to opponents in the regular season (29), and the third-most to point guards (9.56).

In four regular-season games, SGA averaged exactly 6.5 apples per game against Denver, but his uptick in minutes in the playoffs should help him top 6.5 in Game 1. We could also see Gilgeous-Alexander taking on a slightly reduced scoring role and upping his facilitating due to Denver's success in slowing opposing point guards' scoring output; the Nuggets allowed the seventh-fewest PPG to point guards in the regular season (24.07)."

Jamal Murray Under 20.5 points (-130 BetMGM)

"While SGA and Jokic should be running up MVP numbers in Game 1, I don't expect Jamal Murray to have much of an impact against the league's best defense. The Thunder ranked No. 1 in the NBA in defensive rating (107.5) during the regular season while allowing the third-fewest points per game (107.6), which included giving up just the second-fewest PPG to point guards (23.10).

Although Murray popped off for 43 in Game 4 against the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round, he was wildly inconsistent in the series, and OKC is an even tougher matchup. In three regular-season games against OKC, Murray scored fewer than 20.5 twice and shot worse than 36% from the floor in both those games. Expect SGA and Lu Dort to be all over him in Game 1."

**challenges999** · 05-05-25, 06:29 PM

i feel nuggets will take the whole series with a 4 -1 victory

**SBR Andy** · 05-06-25, 07:29 AM

The Nuggets erase a 10 point halftime deficit to stun the Thunder 121-119 in Game 1.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Thunder -290 / Nuggets +235

**SBR Andy** · 05-07-25, 09:17 AM

Nuggets vs Thunder Game 2 prediction from SBR's Isaiah Sirois:

Thunder -10.5 (-112 ESPN BET)

"The Thunder ran Denver’s opening lineup off the floor in Game 1. Michael Porter Jr. couldn’t get anything going and shot 1-for-8 from the floor with a plus-minus of -15 in 24 minutes. The Nuggets moved away from him in favor of Russell Westbrook for their crunch-time lineup.

That adjustment worked out, and Aaron Gordon won Denver the game in improbable fashion. If you didn’t watch the final few possessions, you must.

Denver is unlikely to pull Porter Jr. from the starting five for Game 2, which means we’ll likely see another inefficient start from Denver. On average, he's posting a -1.1 plus-minus in the postseason. Denver’s bench players not named Westbrook - Peyton Watson (-7.8), Jalen Pickett (-8.2), and Julian Strawther (-5.8) - all inspire little confidence, too.

In the regular season, Oklahoma City led the NBA in luck-adjusted net rating (+12.2) while Denver ranked eighth (+4.4). Denver’s struggles largely stemmed from an impotent defense that ranked 20th (115.8), far behind the top-ranked Thunder (107.5). With Watson largely unplayable, Denver’s defense will rely increasingly on good luck, which Chet Holmgren was kind enough to gift them on Monday.

Everything came together perfectly for the Nuggets in Game 1. It won’t be so easy in Game 2. The Thunder had a bad shooting night, converting just 42% from the field (down from 48.2% in the regular season) and 34.9% from deep (down from 37.4%), and they should look much better against a questionable Denver defense in Game 2.

Add in the fact Game 3 is scheduled for Friday, giving both sides just one day off to prepare, and there’s a real chance the Nuggets could pull the plug early and embrace their newfound home-court advantage if things get out of hand through the first three quarters."

**SBR Andy** · 05-07-25, 09:20 AM

Nuggets vs Thunder Game 2 player prop picks from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Jalen Williams Over 22.5 points (-102 FanDuel)

"Williams has appeared in 215 games across his first three seasons in the NBA - he's only had a worse field goal percentage than he did in Game 1 (25%) in eight time. It was also his lowest shooting percentage this season, so it'd be an understatement to say the 24-year-old (5-for-20) struggled from the field.

All of that being said, Williams still managed to score 16 points in the loss. J-Dub cleared this total in three of his four other playoff games, only failing to meet the criteria in a 26-minute cameo during Oklahoma City's 51-point win in Memphis, when he chipped in for 20.

The forward - who averages 21.6 points per game - is the Thunder's clear second option when it comes to scoring. Expect him to bounce back in a big way in a must-win Game 2 for Oklahoma City. Williams' odds imply a 50.5% chance he goes Over the total for a third time against Denver this year.

Williams could be part of a significant scoring effort from the Thunder, who remain the -10.5 favorite after the spread opened at that mark. The total has dropped, but only slightly while moving from 230.5 to 229.5."

Nikola Jokic Under 50.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-110 BetMGM)

"Jokic stuffed the stat sheet in a big way during Game 1. The NBA MVP odds contender posted a whopping 42 points, 22 rebounds, and six assists in the upset victory. It marks the third time this season he's cleared 50.5 points, rebounds, and assists against the Thunder in five outings.

Nevertheless, we're fading the Nuggets' big man for a second straight outing. Oklahoma City - one of the NBA's best defenses - will throw everything at "The Joker" in Game 2. Further, Jokic has only cleared this elevated total twice throughout eight postseason games to date."

Russell Westbrook Under 12.5 points (-120 DraftKings)

"Westbrook has been one of the biggest keys to Denver's success lately. After logging zero minutes in Game 4 against the Los Angeles Clippers, the Nuggets' sixth man has logged four straight games with a double-digit scoring output, including 18 points against his former franchise.

Fading Westbrook in this building is dangerous after he built up a Hall of Fame resume with OKC over 11 years. However, we're expecting the Thunder to play lock-down defense in a get-right Game 2. That includes the second unit, which features defensive stalwarts like Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, and Kenrich Williams.

We're exercising cautious optimism, fading Russ at three-star confidence as he's unlikely to shoot over 50% from the field in a fifth consecutive contest."

**SBR Andy** · 05-08-25, 07:26 AM

OKC dominates 149-106 in Game 2 to even the series at 1-1.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Thunder -450 / Nuggets +350

**SBR Andy** · 05-09-25, 08:57 AM

Thunder vs Nuggets Game 3 prediction from SBR's Phil Wood:

Over 233.5 points (-110 BetMGM)

"After blowing a double-digit lead in Game 1, the Thunder put together one of the most dominant performances of this NBA postseason in Game 2, leading 45-21 after just the first quarter. They won each of the first three quarters by at least seven en route to a 43-point rout.

While that dominance was unbelievably impressive, I’m staying away from the spread for Friday’s game. You could argue the Thunder have been dominant in both contests, despite the series being tied at one. But the Nuggets are 3-1 at Ball Arena in this postseason, and their only home loss was a narrow three-point defeat.

Therefore, the safer bet is the Over. There were eight Thunder players who ended up scoring in double figures during Game 2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropped a game-high 34 while shooting an astounding 11-of-13 from the floor.

While the Thunder won’t score 149 again, there’s little doubt they'll tally at least 120. They scored 119 in Game 1, and the club registered at least 122 points in three of its four regular-season games against the Nuggets.

The Nuggets aren’t very good defensively after allowing 116.6 points per game this season. However, they're the league's fourth-highest scoring team, and while the Nuggets only tallied 106 points in Game 2, Denver has topped 120 in three of its six games against the Thunder this season."

**SBR Andy** · 05-09-25, 11:06 AM

Thunder vs Nuggets Game 3 player prop picks from SBR's Brenden Schaeffer:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 points (-102 FanDuel)

"A season-long concern for betting the point total on Gilgeous-Alexander has been the ample rest he’s often given in the fourth quarter of blowouts. This was the case in Game 2 as the Thunder star only played 30 minutes with Oklahoma City cruising to a 149-106 victory.

But a mark in SGA’s favor is his efficiency (11-for-13 from the field), which was so remarkable in that matchup that he still cleared a 32.5-point line by scoring 34 in the win. That’s the NBA MVP odds favorite's third-straight playoff game clearing this line.

Gilgeous-Alexander averaged slightly fewer points per game on the road this season (31.9) than he did at home (33.5). However, his recent efficiency and the collective realization after Game 1 that the Thunder can’t take the Nuggets lightly in this series should put him over the top again in Game 3."

Nikola Jokic Over 13.5 rebounds (-110 FanDuel)

"Game 2 was a travesty for just about every facet of Denver’s game, and Jokic was not immune from criticism. After averaging 12.7 rebounds per game this season, Jokic grabbed just eight boards in the Game 2 loss.

We’re looking for Jokic’s rebounding prowess to normalize in Game 3.

Though he has only cleared this line of 13.5 rebounds once during these playoffs, it came in a 22-rebound explosion in Game 1. The Thunder’s high-flying pace has meant more rebounding opportunities for opponents, as Oklahoma City allows 54.1 rebounds per game (third-most in the NBA).

Game 2 was the outlier - with Denver only grabbing 38 rebounds - for what we expect to see on the glass in a more even series moving forward."

Michael Porter Jr. Over 10.5 points (-125 Caesars)

"Michael Porter Jr. has been a different shooter in Ball Arena during these NBA playoffs, going 18-for-36 from the field at home (50%) compared to 13-of-43 in road arenas (30.2%). During the season, MPJ averaged slightly more points per game and shot above 40% from 3-point range at home.

His recent volatility as a scorer has suppressed his points prop for Game 3 to 10.5, which is nearly eight points lower than his season average of 18.2 PPG.

Though he’s in the doldrums after struggling on the road in the first two games of the series, the venue shift should benefit Porter Jr., who cleared this line in four out of seven games in the Clippers series."

**Bryan082** · 2025-05-12T06:25:01+00:00

Denver’s got the experience for sure, and that can matter a lot in tight games. But OKC’s been fearless—wouldn’t be surprised if they catch fire and steal the series. I’ve got Nuggets in 7, but it’s gonna be close.

**ProSportsEdge** · 2025-05-12T15:01:39+00:00

Originally posted by Bryan082

Denver’s got the experience for sure, and that can matter a lot in tight games. But OKC’s been fearless—wouldn’t be surprised if they catch fire and steal the series. I’ve got Nuggets in 7, but it’s gonna be close.*************************

Solid breakdown, Bryan. Nuggets’ experience might pull it out, but OKC’s got that spark—wouldn’t shock me if they stole it. Appreciate the gear link too!