Knicks vs Celtics Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 05-03-25, 10:29 AM

Knicks vs Celtics AI series prediction from ChatGPT:

Celtics in five games (+220 FanDuel)

"The Celtics enter this series not just as favorites but as a well-oiled machine that has consistently exposed the Knicks’ weaknesses all season. Boston swept the regular-season series 4-0, largely by overwhelming New York’s defense with efficient, balanced scoring. Jayson Tatum torched the Knicks for 33.5 points per game on 53.5% shooting, while Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis took turns exploiting mismatches.

The Celtics’ top-five defense will now hone in on Jalen Brunson, who carried New York through the first round but will face much stiffer resistance from Boston’s perimeter stoppers, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. Even if Brunson continues his playoff heroics, the Knicks’ secondary scorers - OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Karl-Anthony Towns - must drastically outperform their tepid regular-season efforts against Boston. That’s a tall order against a Celtics team that not only limits opponents’ efficiency but rarely beats itself, ranking among the NBA’s best in turnover rate and defensive rebounding.

For New York to have a real chance, it'll need to grind the game to a halt, control the glass, and hope Towns can stretch Boston’s bigs away from the rim to open driving lanes. The Knicks' best hope lies in slowing the Celtics’ pace and turning this into a physical, half-court slugfest. But even then, the Celtics’ versatility and depth - boasting one of the league’s most productive benches - should keep them comfortably ahead."

**SBR Andy** · 05-05-25, 10:07 AM

Knicks vs Celtics Game 1 prediction from SBR's Isaiah Sirois:

Over 212 points (-110 Fanatics)

"This year’s Celtics aren’t quite as efficient as last year’s, but they have had the Knicks’ number. Last season, Boston led the NBA in net rating (+11.7) with the league’s most efficient offense (122.2). This season, they ranked second in both metrics (+9.4 and 119.5). Still, that was good enough for a 4-0 season sweep of the Knicks.

The opening round of the playoffs was encouraging for both sides of this matchup. The Celtics overcame some injury concerns in a gentleman’s sweep of the Orlando Magic, while the Knicks outlasted a challenge from the Detroit Pistons and scored a trio of wins on the road, thanks to huge performances from Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson.

While previous versions of the Knicks have been known for their impressive defensive performances, that doesn’t hold for this one. The Knicks were ninth in defensive rating last year (112.4) and regressed to 13th this year (113.3). New York’s ability to limit opposing teams’ offensive output stemmed more from a slower pace, which the team increased from 95.9 to 97.6 this regular season.

The Knicks and Celtics met four times in the regular season in games that saw final totals of 241, 235, 223, and 236. I will freely admit that playoff basketball is different, both in pace and defensive intensity, but the total of 212.5 or so certainly feels lower than it should be, especially with a well-rested Boston team having accounted for the majority of the scoring in all four contests.

I suspect that head coach Joe Mazzulla will look to establish a slightly faster pace tonight after the last series against Orlando saw the Magic force a slower one. Let’s lock in the Over 212 at Fanatics for the half-point discount relative to the rest of the market as we hope for another high-scoring game from Boston and New York."

**SBR Andy** · 05-05-25, 10:10 AM

Knicks vs Celtics Game 1 player prop picks from SBR's Mike Spector:

Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 assists (-114 FanDuel)

"Brunson is coming off a 40-point performance in Game 6 against the Detroit Pistons. That's seven 40-point playoff games with the Knicks, tied for the most in franchise history.

Brunson scored 30 or more points in five of the six games in the Pistons series, which makes his O/U of 27.5 points in Game 1 seem curious at first glance. It makes sense, though, and I'm expecting a harassing defensive combination from Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, turning Brunson into more of a facilitator.

Brunson has gone over this projected assist total in all six playoff games this year, and he finished with a game-high 10 assists in the last regular season meeting with the Celtics."

Karl-Anthony Towns Under 20.5 points (-105 DraftKings)

"The Celtics are big 8.5-point and -380 moneyline favorites in Game 1, which does not bode well for Towns’ scoring output.

In New York’s wins this postseason, Towns averaged 22.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, and shot 53% from 3-point range. He has averaged 13.5 points and 8.5 rebounds in the losses while making 33% of his shots from beyond the arc.

Boston has allowed an NBA-best 93.6 points per game this postseason and an Eastern Conference-best 42.2% from the field, so I expect Towns will struggle early in this series."

 Al Horford Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+145 BetMGM)

"New York was effective in the limited minutes it played Towns and Mitchell Robinson simultaneously against the Pistons. If the Knicks utilize their “two-big” lineup more in Game 1, look for Boston to combat with Horford stretching the defense more.

Horford has averaged one made 3-pointer per game this postseason and shot 50% from beyond the arc in three regular-season games against the Knicks. This is a great value play on Horford to make two-plus 3-pointers for the seventh time in 12 games."

**SBR Andy** · 05-06-25, 07:27 AM

The Knicks come back from 20 points down to win 108-105 in overtime in Game 1.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Celtics -340 / Knicks +270

**SBR Andy** · 05-07-25, 09:12 AM

Knicks vs Celtics Game 2 prediction from SBR's Mike Spector:

Under 211 points (-110 Caesars)

"New York held Boston to 44 points during the second half of Game 1 and overtime. I'm giving the Knicks' defense a lot of credit for that, instead of dismissing it as just a poor shooting performance from the Celtics.

Boston shot 15-of-60 from 3-point range, and its 45 missed 3-pointers were the most in playoff history, eclipsing the previous record of 40. The Knicks also contributed to the Under cashing on 213.5 in Game 1 despite the extra five-minute overtime period while shooting 54.8% from the free-throw line.

Over backers will likely look at both of those statistics and suggest there's bound to be positive regression in Game 2. But Mitchell Robinson added to New York’s free-throw shooting woes significantly while going 3-for-10 at the charity stripe.

I don't expect Tom Thibodeau to play him less to prevent Boston from using the “hack-a-Robinson” strategy, as he was plus-13 in Game 1.

Boston also enters Game 2 in a bit of a quandary regarding what to do offensively. Kristaps Porzingis (illness) and Sam Hauser (ankle) were limited to just 17 combined minutes in Game 1. They're massive components of the Celtics’ 3-point success with the duo's ability to space the floor, and their potential absences would result in clogged driving lanes for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Overall fatigue is another factor in favor of the Under. A combined seven of the two teams’ starters played at least 44 minutes on Monday, surely resulting in some tired legs after just one day off.

The total has lowered a full point at many of the best NBA betting sites. Therefore, I'm taking advantage of this loftier total at Caesars before the line plummets further, especially if Boston receives bad news about the availability of Porzingis or Hauser."

**SBR Andy** · 05-07-25, 09:14 AM

Knicks vs Celtics Game 2 player prop picks from SBR's Rob Paul:

Jayson Tatum Over 15.5 rebounds + assists (-105 DraftKings)

"There are plenty of questions about Tatum after his horrendous Game 1 shooting performance against the Knicks - 7-for-23 from the floor, 4-for-15 from three - but he continues to dominate the glass and set up others for buckets. He pulled down 16 boards in Game 1 while adding six assists, and that comes after averaging 11.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists in the Celtics' first-round series against the Orlando Magic. He'll need to keep that up if Boston is going to live up to its NBA championship odds.

Even during last year's championship run, Tatum was sporadic with his shooting, but still impacted the game with his rebounding and passing. He averaged a combined 15.9 rebounds and assists for the playoffs. With our Knicks vs. Celtics prediction expecting Boston to get back on track in the series, look for Tatum to continue to focus on boards and apples.

The line movement indicates a strong potential for a quality showing from Boston with plenty of points, with the spread moving from -9.5 to -10.5 in their favor. There's also overwhelming support among bettors for the Over on 211.5 points, with that side getting 63% of the action."

 Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 points (-114 FanDuel)

"It's a little shocking to see betting sites set Brunson's point total line this low for Game 2 after he managed 29 in the opener on 55.6% shooting from behind the arc. That comes after averaging 31.5 in the first round against the Detroit Pistons and scoring at least 30 in five of six games in that series. With Brunson's volume shooting and the Knicks needing him to carry the load if they hope to upset Boston, I have a hard time seeing Brunson going for fewer than 27 in Game 2.

In the opening series against Detroit, his usage rate was 34.1%, and he averaged 24.8 field-goal attempts and nine free-throw attempts in 40 minutes per game. In Game 1 against Boston, he played over 43 minutes with a 32.2% usage rate and combined to take 30 field-goal and free-throw attempts. It's not like Tom Thibodeau, of all people, will reduce his minutes in Game 2."

Karl-Anthony Towns Under 29.5 points + rebounds (-114 Caesars)

"Another reason the Knicks absolutely need Brunson to shoot like he doesn't have a conscience is because Karl-Anthony Towns has been no-showing for much of the NBA playoffs ... maybe he needs Draymond Green to "motivate" him some more? KAT had 14 points in Game 1 while playing only 31 minutes due to foul issues.

That comes after he had a usage rate of just 20.4% in the Knicks' first-round series while averaging a combined 29.7 points and rebounds per game. He's now gone Under 29.5 combined in three straight, and it won't get any easier against a Celtics defense that allowed the second-fewest points per game to centers in the regular season (18.97)."

**SBR Andy** · 05-08-25, 07:25 AM

The Knicks do it again! After trailing by 20, they come back to steal game 2 by a score of 91-90 to go up 2-0 in the series.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Celtics -120 / Knicks +100

**SBR Andy** · 05-09-25, 09:21 AM

Celtics vs Knicks Game 3 prediction from SBR's Mike Spector:

Over 204.5 points (-110 DraftKings)

"The Celtics seemed to learn from their mistakes in Game 1 after missing an NBA playoff record 45 attempts from 3-point range. While they made five of 21 attempts from deep in the first half of game 2, they also attempted 21 paint field goals and made 11. That was a stark difference from their high volume of 3-point attempts (60) and paint field goal attempts (31) in Game 1.

I expect Boston to get back to attacking the rim more in Game 3, while also putting the onus on the referees to blow the whistle. There should also be positive regression in the shooting department - Boston has made 25% of its wide-open 3-point field goal attempts this series, while GeniusIQ calculates it should have been expected to make 41%.

The Knicks scratched out a victory in Game 2 despite Jalen Brunson shooting 6-of-19 and New York making 29% of its 3-point attempts. In addition, Mikal Bridges did not score until the fourth quarter, and his team committed 16 turnovers.

While the Knicks' last six games have been decided by three or fewer points, these trends have me backing the Over with more confidence than their +5.5 spread. The total is down a full point from its opening number at DraftKings, so Over backers might get an even better number closer to tip-off."