Goat...not my stuff..just trying to post stuff that might help the cause
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Kobe wants this series...saw a interview...a few days back....he said "the goal is to win a championship every year and the Celtics are standing in our way"Comment -
Gotta figure the Lakers take and cover game one ..????/Comment -
Celtics to win the finals? I agree LB. Definitely guy
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Lake show!! lets get it!!
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Lakerboy, whats the lean in Game 1 boss?Comment -
Do you guys want a write up? If a few people reply with "yes" I will post a write up by tomorrow morning.
But I will warn you it won't be the on the surface type stuff they talk about on ESPN. It will be more complex.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
yes please
did you see my question in another thread, and it is just out of interest, you said you have been preparing for this for two years, did you predict that these two teams would face in the finals, or is it just an ongoing thing you have been doing?Comment -
I'm always interested in any input you have goat. I mean it is the nba finals. let us know everything!Comment -
cool guys I will do a write up tomorrow morning.
Lakers Celtics finals was in the back of my head this year, but no I didn't think we would see it. I knew that the Big 3 would stay together for awhile though after they won in 08 and it was only a matter of time before we'd see it again.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Is lb going to do the 5min before game start tomorrow?Comment -
Let's see it goatComment -
Get on the under 191.5 if you are smart!Comment -
I bet LB likes Lakers in 5.
Just remember LB Celts are the DOGS. We all know the Celtics can't be fvked with when they're dogs.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
looking forward to the write up goatComment -
lakers game 1 is solidComment -
Damn LB. Cant rush the master. But damn.Comment -
Let’s just get into the keys and the important parts.
Boston is the same deadly half-court defensive team they were in 08. The 1 serious flaw with the Celtics defense that can be exploited is their transition D. The Lakers are a half-court offensive team. But think about who they have played in the Playoffs thus far. OKC, Utah, and the Suns—all fast-paced offensive teams that like to run with the rock. I think you know what I’m getting at. I was saying that for the Magic to win games they need to push the ball, Wario didn’t figure it out til game 4. Magic won 2 straight.
Boston has played all half-court teams this playoffs. The Heat, the Cavs, the Magic. The Celtics wouldn’t be able to handle a fast-paced Suns team. They would wear them out over 7 games. Although some say the Lakers haven’t been tested defensively, they are a defense-in-progress, and playing against three of the best offensive teams in the league only made their defense better over the last month. Have the Celtics been challenged defensively? They guarded Lebron, but that’s because Lebron doesn’t have a jump shot like Kobe. D Wade destroyed the Celtics in that series. If only he had a few DECENT players....
MATCHUPS
KOBE VS. CELTICS: In 08, Kobe was too aggressive. Trying to drive and get to the rim too much. Celtics were trapping him hard when he tried to drive. Kobe will conserve his energy for the end of these games, watch. He will shoot jumpers as long as they’re testing him. . Kobe is going to start each game taking lots of jumpers, then they will realize how deadly he is from mid range and not give him space. They’re finished once they try to body him up on the elbow.
*Ray Allen and Toney Allen will guard Kobe in this series.
Let’s just omit this as well: Boston is not tougher than the Lakers. Mentally, the Lakers are tougher this year than they were in 08, the Celtics can get rattled easily offensively before they regroup. Physically the Celtics are tougher.
Artest vs. Pierce: Artest is one of the best covers in the league on Pierce. No strength advantage for Pierce. Artest has some of the quickest hands in the league, he knows Pierces move it’s a step back jumper from either elbow. Artest knows this move, what’s good about Artest even though he’s still not a great defensive player is that he stays down on pump fakes. Pierce will have a few huge games in this series, most likely game 3 in Boston IMO.
Artest has all the confidence in the world after that pussy buzzer beater. I knew it when I bet the Suns game 6 that Artest would be my biggest fear
He’s going to be a BIG factor in this series.
Rondo vs. Kobe/Fisher/Brown: Fisher will guard Rondo to begin with, I wouldn’t be surprised if Phil put Kobe on Pierce in the beginning to conserve his energy and put Ron on Ray Allen, but Kobe will make that decision himself. When Fisher is out of the game, Kobe will guard Rondo. Has anyone ever seen Kobe Bryant play defense when he’s trying? Kobe will shut down Rondo. Rondo plays off the pick and roll, but playing against Kobe will intimidate him trust me. He’ll hesitate to knock down the jumper.
The great thing about Rondo is that he can create his own driving lanes. He doesn’t need a lane he just makes his own. Rondo better not get too fancy with the Ball against Kobe though unless he wants to get swiped. Rondo will get his against Fisher and Brown all day. I don’t know when Kobe will demand to be put on Rondo. Maybe we’ll see it in Game 1.
There is one play the Celtics like to run in Key situations. Let rondo dribble left from the baseline area off two screens, one from ray and one from KG. KG then sets a pick for Ray and Rondo find him at the top of the key for a 3 usually.
KG Gasol: KG not the same as he was in 08. Same intensity, same focus, not the same athletically. I think KG is going to get lots of looks though off Rondo pick and Roll and Gasol will be left stranded in the lane at times. KG will play well this series. Gasol can shoot over the top of KG any day. He’s too long and KG has lost the lift in his legs.
Other matchups:
When Odom and Gasol are in the game, Rivers will use Perkins/Sheed and KG/Davis. Sheed is a solid Cover on Gasol, and Odom and KG will get the better of one another at different points in this series. Big Baby will also guard Odom throughout this series. But that is a huge mismatch in Odom’s favor. When Phil sees that matchup he will tell Odom to bring the ball up the court and just take Davis off the dribble from the 3 line.
Bynum vs. Perkins/Sheed: Bynum will be solid offensively in the first 2 games of this series. He’s rested, and he’s being directed to say his knee just feels “okay”. He’s ready to go at least for game 1-2. Perkins has a nice matchup on the offensive end, but the Celts won’t give it to him in the post .Perkins can take Bynum in the post any day if he wants.
Sheed vs. Odom- when Sheed is in the game Odom will guard him. Sheed’s only advantage here is taking Odom in the post. Odom can guard him on the perimeter. Sheed’s post game is nothing. It used to be amazing.
Vujacic/Bryant/Artest/Shannon Brown on Ray Allen: Ray Allen is going to have a BIG series. Vujacic is going to play huge minutes in this series because Phil likes his peskiness against Ray. Shannon Brown is not very good at running through screen, Ray Allen will destroy Brown, so I’m not even sure if Phil will toy with this idea. Kobe will guard Ray limited minutes to conserve his energy.
Celtics Bench: Marquis Daniels blows. If he plays any time in this series I wouldn’t be surprised because Rivers is the worst coach in the NBA at using his bench. I’ve been saying for so long why aren’t they playing Nate Robinson? He’s instant offense. Sure enough Marquis and Tony getting injured was a blessing in disguise for the Celtics because Rivers finally played Robinson. Robinson will play great in Boston. Sheed has been discussed. Tony Allen is just for defensive purposes, but is a solid offensive transition player. Michael Finely is washed up. **Michael Finely will hit 1 big shot for the Celts in a game. Big Baby discussed.
Lakers Bench: Vujacic will play big minutes to stay with Ray defensively. Phil will go with whoever is hot Brown or Farmar, they will both play against Nate Robinson. Powell will play minutes against Big Baby/KG. Nate Robinson is a very good defender. He might irritate these guys at different points in this series. Luke Walton will play a bit as well, he’s a solid facilitator. Brown is too big for Robinson though. I think he’ll ask for it in the post a lot when they’re both on the floor together. Odom is a big factor for LA. Let’s just say that when Odom plays well the Lakers are tough to beat.
Once the Celtics realize they can’t guard Kobe the same way as they did last time, they’re going to get lost defensively and start leaving those guys for open 3s. You’re not going to be able to collapse on Bryant this time, he knows where the help is coming from and will just go away from it, he’s studied film for the last 2 years probably every night.
Fisher: Fisher will have a solid series. Hit a few big shots like always. Rondo’s defense can’t really be used to Boston’s advantage guarding Fisher, Farmar, or Brown 1 on 1. Instead of shutting down a player like Mo Williams or Jameer, who need to play great for their teams to win.
**Boston will switch to the zone at some point most likely. I would be very shocked if Boston comes out with a zone to begin with, but they have definitely looked at some of the things PHX was doing. Either way, LA learned to play against an effective zone, and Boston will come out man to man game 1. Rondo’s speed is a big problem for Fisher and Farmar, but Bryant knows how to play him, speed becomes irrelevant when your giving the guy the jumper. Boston doesn’t know any better than to play the same defense they have been playing this whole playoffs and what they played against Kobe in 08. They will make adjustments accordingly.
WHAT WILL PHIL DO?
-Lakers will fade the triangle offense at times
- Iso at the elbow with Bryant. Two man pick and roll with Kobe and Gasol/Odom on one side of the floor. If Kobe just goes away from the help he’ll have that running jump shot he likes so much. Once he’s knocking those down (I haven’t seen Kobe’s midrange look this good ever), that pick and roll will open up like butter.
- Why is Phil trying to get in Garnettes head? Come on Phil, you’re not going to get in Nets head with those comments.
- Use Odom big minutes and let him basically run the point against a slow KG or Big Baby.
- Get Bynum going early
- Don’t slow the ball down. Run with the ball. Get into your offensive sets very quickly.
What Will Rivers Do?
- Play Big Baby and Nate Robinson 1 and 2 off the benc
- Lots of pick and Roll sets Garnett/Big Baby and Rondo/Robinson
- Isolations for Ray Allen at times
- Try to establish KG early
- Pierce isos on the elbow as usual, Perkins/Sheed will usually set a pick for him because he’s not looking to really pass off the pick and roll. He’s going to the hole.
- How do you get the Lakers to collapse in paint if Pierce can’t draw a double and neither can Rondo?
- Slow down the ball: take great, efficient shots, be patient on offense
- Not go for too many offensive rebounds. Get back-- transition D.
Are the Lakers a better team than they were in 08? Yes. Gasol is now a champion. Artest is much better than Ariza. Artest will prove a lot of people wrong this series. Bench has the experience and the ring. They lost Rodmanavic, no one else important. The Celtics should have swept the Lakers in 08 the way the Lakers played. Everything they did was forced.
Are the Celtics a better team than they were in 08? Yes. Rondo is much better than he was in 08. But KG is worse. Pierce and Allen are the same. The Celtics bench is worse IMO. James Posey was a huge part of that Celtics team as was Leone Powe. The only good addition this year was Nate Robinson. Sheed is too inconsistent. Posey and Powe brought it every night they were the leaders off that bench.
The Celtics are dogs though, and they thrive on being dogs. For those that think the Celtics will go down in 4 or 5 or maybe even 6 should consider this.
Lets not make this too long I’ll stop here cause I’m getting bored.
Rivers>Phil (no, Phil is no zen-master. They both know how to inspire their guys, but Phil is weird and doesn't make adjustments as good as Rivers)
Celtics Bench = Lakers Bench
Gasol and KG will be solid all series
Odom will outlay Big Baby and Sheed
Ray Allen will have a big series
Pierce will struggle at times. He will have big games and he will have horrible games.
Artest and Fisher will have a solid series
Rondo will struggle at times
Kobe will hit 1-2 game winning shots this series or huge clutch moments in the last minute.
Kobe>Celtics
EDIT- Do I get points for this post?Last edited by Goat Milk; 06-03-10, 02:51 AM.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Thanks goat, love the write up.Comment -
Awesome write up Goat
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Nice write up goat.. Can't wait for the gameComment -
Thanks for the write up, now i have a lot of talking points for my buddies cheering for the celtsComment -
NEVADA SHARPS GENERALLY FAVOR LAKERS, TRYING TO FIND VALUE IN TOUGH MARKET
Sharps (professional bettors) are trying to come up with ways to find value betting the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Championship series that starts Thursday Night.- They believe the Lakers are the better of the two teams.
- They believe home court advantage makes the Lakers an even stronger side in the series (remember, many sharps liked the Lakers two years ago when Boston had home floor).
- They believe the injury issues for Rajon Rondo will play a big role in this series, since Rondo was the key factor in getting Boston through the tough Eastern brackets.
If you're a sharp, you don't want to pay a square tax!
You may think the Lakers are going to win the series. Do you want to lay -180 or higher for the privilege of betting them? A lot of guys laid the price two years ago and got spanked badly when it turned out the Lakers weren't ready for the more physical Celtics. This Lakers team is tougher, arguably MUCH tougher with the addition of Ron Artest. Still. Sharps are good about learning lessons. They'd prefer less expensive ways to back the Lakers.
What about laying 5½ points or so in Game One? The price on the Game One moneyline is -240. Neither one is a bargain from the Lakers perspective. That's getting close to where sharps switch over to Boston for value even if they like the Lakers to win the series. When game spreads get high, bets on Boston can still make money if the Celtics lose the series.
I honestly haven't seen a lot of sharp action this week in the baskets. Some guys took the plunge on the Lakers when it looked like Rondo would have trouble playing at 100%. Most are taking a wait and see attitude. The sharp money will come late. It might not come until Game Two Sunday. The guys who really like the Lakers are likely to step out when LA goes on the road. This is a team that plays well away from home, and the prices will be more affordable.
In short:- The sharps who believe in the Lakers don't like the early prices.
- The sharps with an eye on Boston want to see Rondo's status.
But, if Rondo is back to normal, then we'll probably have a "sharps vs. squares" battle where the sharps are betting Boston because of the "square tax" factored into the numbers...while the public is betting the Lakers because they don't care what the price is, they just want to root for Kobe Bryant.
It is possible for a series underdog to lose a series, but go 4-2 or even 5-2 against the spread if they're losing close games. There is a line in the sand where sharps who think the Lakers are the better of the two teams will still bet Boston for value. It wouldn't happen at +4, but it might at +6 or +7 in LA.
I'll do my best to keep you updated on the sharp thinking process through the finals. This has the feel of a "wait and see" series to me so far. I'll tell you what the sharps are doing as soon as I see itComment -
Nice wright up goatComment
Great stuff Goat. Really looking forward to what you have to say. 
