Simulation beta 1.1 predictions thread

[bustabook]

Version 2 plays, January 23rd...

Orlando 92.9 - Charlotte 90.8 (Expected Line: Charlotte +2.1, 183.7)
Side play: Orlando (+1) (Margin: 3.1)
Total Play: Under 191 (Margin: 7.3)
Philadelphia 100.5 - Indiana 101.7 (Expected Line: Indiana -1.2, 202.2)
Side play: Philadelphia (+3.5) (Margin: 2.3)
Total Play: Under 207 (Margin: 4.8)
Okla City 91.6 - Cleveland 99.1 (Expected Line: Cleveland -7.5, 190.7)
Side play: Okla City (+7.5) (Margin: 0.0)
Total Play: Over 189 (Margin: 1.7)
Portland 93.0 - Detroit 87.6 (Expected Line: Detroit +5.4, 180.6)
Side play: Portland (+2) (Margin: 7.4)
Total Play: Under 184.5 (Margin: 3.9)
Sacramento 99.7 - Miami 104.3 (Expected Line: Miami -4.6, 204.0)
Side play: Sacramento (+7) (Margin: 2.4)
Total Play: Over 201 (Margin: 3.0)
Chicago 91.7 - Houston 99.3 (Expected Line: Houston -7.6, 191.0)
Side play: Houston (-6) (Margin: 1.6)
Total Play: Under 195.5 (Margin: 4.5)
Minnesota 92.8 - Milwaukee 104.7 (Expected Line: Milwaukee -11.9, 197.5)
Side play: Milwaukee (-8) (Margin: 3.9)
Total Play: Under 202 (Margin: 4.5)
New Orleans 97.6 - Denver 109.9 (Expected Line: Denver -12.3, 207.5)
Side play: Denver (-10) (Margin: 2.3)
Total Play: Under 208 (Margin: 0.5)
Golden State 112.5 - Phoenix 123.8 (Expected Line: Phoenix -11.3, 236.3)
Side play: Phoenix (-9.5) (Margin: 1.8)
Total Play: Under 237 (Margin: 0.7)
New Jersey 84.2 - Utah 104.5 (Expected Line: Utah -20.3, 188.7)
Side play: Utah (-15.5) (Margin: 4.8)
Total Play: Under 202 (Margin: 13.3)

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I'm off to bed, but I will post the plays tomorrow afternoon..

[dede53]

thanks from TURKEY buddy.
four game and I win...

thanks....

[vic]

Tks. for working so hard, bro. Hope you made money last night.

[dede53]

bustabook I have to say, it's different handicaps or points in Turkish betgame.
but first I see your tips and look Turkish bet. Ofcourse I win because of your tips.

thank you again.

last night my bets was under.


Bos Celtics - Por T Blazers (10.5h) --- 2 ////win
Det Pistons - Ind Pacers (TS :199.5) ----- under ////win
Sa Spurs - Hou Rockets (TS :193.5) ----- over ////win
Pho Suns - Chi Bulls (TS :219.5)------ under ////win


ps: in Turkey, they write home team firstly....

[MrSleepy]

Version 2 Summary, January 22nd...

Indiana/Detroit Under 199
Houston/San Antonio Over 192
New Jersey/Golden State Under 216.5
Chicago/Phoenix Under 220
Milwaukee +7.5
Washington +2.5
Portland +10.5
Oklahoma City +3.5

----------------------------

LOL... just your run-of-the-mill 7-1 night. Hope those of you still following this thread cashed tonight.. talk to you guys soon.

Awesome nite Busta! I have 2 parlays and hit the over/unders in 1 and did a round robin 3s and hit all of them that didnt have washington in it. still made some good $$$. THanks and keep up the great work!!!

[MrSleepy]

BUSTA question: i was comparing the margins from last nite's games and noticed that you didnt consider to make the Hou/SA game(Side play: San Antonio (-6) (Margin: 3.2)) and the Chi/Pho game(Side play: Phoenix (-6.5) (Margin: 3.9)). The games that you posted plays for had comparable margins. Can i ask why you didnt use these plays? Im just trying to get an understanding on what you consider plays thats all.

as i stated before, i use your stats along with my calculations as well and believe me it helps ALOT and is working out great for me. So i hope that you dont get too discouraged 1 nite and just stop all of a sudden. It would be devasting to me and for some on here that follow up with your predictions....

[bustabook]

MrSleepy.. I backtest a few different angles, and when a play falls into more than one category that has performed well in backtesting... i play it.

The plays you mentioned simply didn't fall into enough high-performing areas to be deemed a "play".

Underdogs have performed at a better rate than favorites (specifically medium-sized favorites).

I am in the process of coming up with new angles, and if you have any you would like to see tested.. let me know.. and i will try to get it done and get you the results.

Im running out.. i will try to get back in time tonight to post the plays.

[LerpF51]

Can your "system" be modified to give results for baseball? Hate to think about BasketBall season ending!

Baseball might be a stretch,,,,, but what about college BB? tia

[MrSleepy]

MrSleepy.. I backtest a few different angles, and when a play falls into more than one category that has performed well in backtesting... i play it.

The plays you mentioned simply didn't fall into enough high-performing areas to be deemed a "play".

Underdogs have performed at a better rate than favorites (specifically medium-sized favorites).

I am in the process of coming up with new angles, and if you have any you would like to see tested.. let me know.. and i will try to get it done and get you the results.

Im running out.. i will try to get back in time tonight to post the plays.

I might actually take you up on that. Im working on something else that i would like to try and possibly get your backtesting done. How far can you go as far as backtesting goes?

[Nick6570]

Good job lately busta, your killing it!!

[bustabook]

lerp... i will be creating a baseball model.. i am not sure how i want it to "crunch the numbers" just yet.

[bustabook]

Version 2 Plays, January 23rd...

Orlando/Charlotte Under 189.5
Portland +2.5
Minnesota/Milwaukee Under 202
Utah -16
New Jersey/Utah Under 202

[eidolon]

is there a running record?

[LerpF51]

Results are usually posted the same evening... or following day. As far as I know there is no official running record. I can say that Busta's record is VERY impressive. Hope this helps.

[Trev Dog]

Lets get'm busta. Really like the Utah picks. And great night last night BTW. I am far from giving up on this sickening system!

[bustabook]

i just realized i missed a play tonight... i am not sure why it was omitted, but the philadelphia/indiana UNDER was supposed to be played. very sorry, guys.. i have no idea why i didn't add this.

it might be a good thing or might be a bad thing, as the game's total projection (as of right now) is hovering around the total.

GL on the other plays, I will ty to be more careful.

[LerpF51]

It had a 4.8 rating so I figured 'what the heck'.

[LerpF51]

It had a 4.8 rating so I figured 'what the heck'.

Bank it ... 204 final

[LerpF51]

Crap! Looks like OT on the orlando/char game.

[bustabook]

magic game just went to overtime... sorry boys.

[bustabook]

magic blow a 16 point lead in a game which is an absolute lock to stay under... im sick.

[LerpF51]

I was already counting the money! You'd think I would have learned by now.

[MrSleepy]

that how i am losing my bets lately... OT i hate OT

[LerpF51]

Portland +2.5 ... BANK IT!

[LerpF51]

NJ/Utah Under.... BANK IT!
Utah -16.5 ........ BANK IT!

[bustabook]

v2 Summary, January 23rd...


Orlando/Charlotte Under 189.5
Portland +2.5
Minnesota/Milwaukee Under 202
Utah -16
New Jersey/Utah Under 202

------------------------

3-2 on the day...

[vic]

My heart was pounding so hard with few seconds left on the Sixers/und.

[LerpF51]

magic blow a 16 point lead in a game which is an absolute lock to stay under... im sick.

If I can read this scrawl on my note pad I had picked out 2 Under games rated at 4.5... they lost. I have 2 rated at 4.8 that won,,, one 7.4, and 13.3 rated games that won.
With the exception of the Orlando/charlotte game, rated at 7.3, (that we were robbed on) I'd say not all that bad!The top rated games won 2 out of 3. I'll take it.... Thank you very much!!

[MrSleepy]

great plays tonite busta....

we should have won that orlando/charlotte game. still banked. Lets keep it going....

[LerpF51]

Busta, looks like Houston U195.5, which was rated at 4.5 also lost. What I just noticed is that EVERY other game that was below 4.5 lost... with the exception of the Gold st/Phoenix game ( rated .07). So, discounting the houston U195 game rated 4.5, there were 7 losses and one win. That seems a little odd to me. Is the loss ratio of these under rated games always so one sided? Almost makes me want to play the under rated teams to lose. By this I mean if a highly rated them is likely to win..... then an under rated team is likely to lose.... right? Maybe? Is there a trend here, or is (2w-7loss) this just a fluke?

[bustabook]

v2 Results, January 24th...

Dallas 102.0 - New York 100.9 (Expected Line: New York +1.1, 202.9)
Side play: New York (+3.5) (Margin: 2.4)
Total Play: Over 197.5 (Margin: 5.4)
LA Clippers 98.1 - Washington 99.4 (Expected Line: Washington -1.3, 197.5)
Side play: LA Clippers (+1.5) (Margin: 0.2)
Total Play: No Play 197.5 (Margin: 0.0)
LA Lakers 107.6 - Toronto 101.8 (Expected Line: Toronto +5.8, 209.4)
Side play: LA Lakers (-5.5) (Margin: 0.3)
Total Play: Under 209.5 (Margin: 0.1)

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The last 2 games don't have lines, so I just got a fair/true line for you guys to go off of..

GL

[bustabook]

lerp.. i didnt include the chi/hou play because by the time i posted the plays, the line had moved to 199... which means the play is now in a range (under plays w/margin > 8, < 10) that hasn't performed all that well in the last rounds of backtesting...

Total Low/High Margin: 7/10
Overs: 4-2 (67%), Unders: 14-14 (50%)
Total Low/High Margin: 8/9
Overs: 0-0 (NaN%), Unders: 4-6 (40%)
Total Low/High Margin: 8/10
Overs: 2-0 (100%), Unders: 10-10 (50%)
Total Low/High Margin: 9/10
Overs: 2-0 (100%), Unders: 6-6 (50%)
Total Low/High Margin: 10/20
Overs: 0-0 (NaN%), Unders: 4-2 (67%)

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also, in regards to your other question about margins < 4 (specifically w/totals)... they have shown over the last 3 rounds of backtesting to hover at or around 50%.. so while today they went 2-7, tomorrow they may go 7-2... here is that last round of backtesting regarding totals (margins 0-4)

Total Low/High Margin: 0/1
Overs: 16-8 (67%), Unders: 12-13 (48%)
Total Low/High Margin: 0/2
Overs: 26-25 (51%), Unders: 21-29 (42%)
Total Low/High Margin: 0/3
Overs: 38-37 (51%), Unders: 34-49 (41%)
Total Low/High Margin: 0/4
Overs: 43-41 (51%), Unders: 44-61 (42%)

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hope this helps a little..

[LerpF51]

Thanks guy. Now I've got some data to chew on tonight. Good job on todays picks!

[bustabook]

No plays today, January 24th...

GL on football everyone..

[El Mexa]

Busta, waiting for your system!! GL with todays picks!!