Why are dogs so bad in the second half?

[Gaze73]

I swear you can blindly back every fav losing by double digits at HT.

[stevenash]

I have a theory, it's because bad teams can't or don't know how to close out.

[Gaze73]

They're especially bad in Q4 and OT. I swear whenever I'm on a dog +5.5 or +6.5 and it goes to OT I already know they will lose by exactly 6 and 7 even if they're at home with momentum. And then it happens exactly as expected. Damn 76ers. Down 4 points with 15 seconds left so of course they equalize and lose in OT.

[TommieGunshot]

I don’t know the reason, I just know this information gives us a very easy way to earn a lot of money.

[2Sweeet]

Adjust don't complain. If it happens always as you say then you should be making a killing. Live bet the other team and back yourself up.

[Gaze73]

I can't live bet NBA, the games start at 1-4 AM for me. When I look at the results in the morning I see that most of my dogs threw the game as usual.

[Gaze73]

I don’t know the reason, I just know this information gives us a very easy way to earn a lot of money.

Enjoy, take those bookies to the cleaners.

[Steelers05]

I have been having that problem of late, 2 examples last night: Hofstra +175 and Riverside +210. Both play great first halves only to not be able to close it out in second half, it’s frustrating.

[Gaze73]

I have been having that problem of late, 2 examples last night: Hofstra +175 and Riverside +210. Both play great first halves only to not be able to close it out in second half, it’s frustrating.

It's probably best to make a middle bet. Dog +6.5 pre game, fav +3.5 at HT if the dog is doing great. Then Dog loses by 5 FT and you cash both.

[Gaze73]

Well, even dogs can make a comeback sometimes. I was just on Yalova ML at +180 in the Turkish league, one of the worst teams. Won HT by 4, trailed by 10 in Q4 with 8 mins left, traded at +1000 in play. Suddenly went on a 25-10 run to win by 5.

[johnnyvegas13]

This is something that needs to b analyzed more

cus I notice the same

[Madison]

One thing to consider, I've been talking about forever, is the END. Lot of teams reach this point for various reasons, but there is a history of betting lines being exceeded late. My point simply is teams play/plan for 10 months and when the end is clear, late/mid 3rd qtr sometimes when the inevitable becomes clear teams can just tank.

[DJK]

This is something that needs to b analyzed more

cus I notice the same

Yeah, please analayze and tell us what you are taking.

[Steelers05]

Two I am looking at tonight, haven't put them in yet, are Youngstown State +185 and DePaul +335. We will see if one or both can hold on for a full 40 minutes.

[Steelers05]

Two I am looking at tonight, haven't put them in yet, are Youngstown State +185 and DePaul +335. We will see if one or both can hold on for a full 40 minutes.

Missed boat on DePaul, game was pulled due to injuries and posted back up at 6.5 with no ML so passing on it. Played YSU +185.

[DJK]

Missed boat on DePaul, game was pulled due to injuries and posted back up at 6.5 with no ML so passing on it. Played YSU +185.

LOL

DePaul won SU.

Hardest bets to make are the winners.

[Steelers05]

LOL

DePaul won SU.

Hardest bets to make are the winners.

Did it a few times tonight where I was debating between two plays and picked the loser of the two, it happens...can't dwell on it.

[Gaze73]

So I took Jazz ML at +420 and they won HT by 20. Then even a team as awful as Pelicans made a 20pt comeback because dogs suck.
After Q1 I coulda backed Pelicans at +190 but that didn't seem a good price for a bad team down 19pts.

[johnnyvegas13]

U figure out that system yet ???

[Steelers05]

I went 1-1 on dog ncaab ml’s yesterday, both were leading at the break. Penn +250 were up 9 at the break and ended up winning by 15 but I believe it was tied at on point in 2H, so wasn’t without a sweat. Bucknell +275 were us 5 at half and lost by 7, at least they covered the 7.5 by the hook. Hey at least both didn’t collapse, I’ll take the split and profit.

[JIBBBY]

They are dogs for a reason that's why. They fade in the second half. You are only as good as your record in other words in most cases.

[Gaze73]

U figure out that system yet ???

I figured that most of the time when I like the dog, I should just bet the first quarter instead. Big favs often take it easy early. Also I predicted a comeback in the Grizzlies game. Fav was down by only 5 pts but had momentum from the 3rd quarter and you could grab +150 ML or +3.5 spread.

[TommieGunshot]

I figured that most of the time when I like the dog, I should just bet the first quarter instead. Big favs often take it easy early. Also I predicted a comeback in the Grizzlies game. Fav was down by only 5 pts but had momentum from the 3rd quarter and you could grab +150 ML or +3.5 spread.

This is a very profitable system, because dogs are so bad in the second half.

[Gaze73]

Haha, I asked GPT about this. Betting on NBA for a just few months and I bet on something that didn't happen in 8 years. I'm cursed.

In the NBA, comebacks from a halftime deficit of over 20 points are exceptionally rare, especially for favored teams. While specific statistics detailing the frequency of such occurrences are limited, historical instances provide some insight:

• Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers (2017 Playoffs): The Cavaliers became the first team in NBA playoff history to overcome a 25-point halftime deficit, defeating the Pacers in Game 3 of their series.
  Wikipedia
• New Orleans Pelicans vs. Utah Jazz (January 21, 2025): The Pelicans set a franchise record by erasing a 25-point deficit to win 123-119 in overtime against the Jazz.

[TommieGunshot]

Haha, I asked GPT about this. Betting on NBA for a just few months and I bet on something that didn't happen in 8 years. I'm cursed.

In the NBA, comebacks from a halftime deficit of over 20 points are exceptionally rare, especially for favored teams. While specific statistics detailing the frequency of such occurrences are limited, historical instances provide some insight:

• Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers (2017 Playoffs): The Cavaliers became the first team in NBA playoff history to overcome a 25-point halftime deficit, defeating the Pacers in Game 3 of their series.
  Wikipedia
• New Orleans Pelicans vs. Utah Jazz (January 21, 2025): The Pelicans set a franchise record by erasing a 25-point deficit to win 123-119 in overtime against the Jazz.

This was smart to have chatgpt find the answer for you. It's crazy that it's been eight years since a 20-point halftime comeback, I remember when they used to happen multiple times every year.

[Gaze73]

I'm getting better at this. Had just 1 NBA game for the night, GSW to win HT and to cover +7. Sure enough they won HT by 15 and threw the game as my system predicted. Coincidence? GPT:

In the NBA, overcoming a 15-point halftime deficit is challenging but not unprecedented. While specific statistics on the frequency of such comebacks are limited, available data provides some insight:

• General Comeback Trends: Historically, teams trailing by 15 points at any point in a game had a .060 winning percentage. However, in recent seasons, this winning percentage has increased to .126, indicating that comebacks from such deficits have become more common
• Recent Notable Comeback: On January 21, 2025, the New Orleans Pelicans set a franchise record by overcoming a 25-point deficit to defeat the Utah Jazz 123-119 in overtime. This game exemplifies the increasing frequency of significant comebacks in the NBA

[Gaze73]

Am I cursed or what? Took Zalgiris +7.5 in the Euroleague. They won HT by 17. What happened in Q4? The fav sprouted wings to go on a 21-0 run, finishing the quarter 29-6. FT 89-76. Funnily enough Zalgiris is the team that pulled off the second biggest comeback in the league's history 3 months ago, rallying from a 27 point deficit. When I bet on them they have the worst Q4 of the year.

[Git Lo]

I figured that most of the time when I like the dog, I should just bet the first quarter instead. Big favs often take it easy early. Also I predicted a comeback in the Grizzlies game. Fav was down by only 5 pts but had momentum from the 3rd quarter and you could grab +150 ML or +3.5 spread.

You still have to do this in spots. In fact I think it's better to choose the favored team for 1q or 1st half, literally the opposite of your suggestion, but it depends on the spot but those spots are a lot more limited to what they use to be

[Gaze73]

You still have to do this in spots. In fact I think it's better to choose the favored team for 1q or 1st half, literally the opposite of your suggestion, but it depends on the spot but those spots are a lot more limited to what they use to be

No way, I don't believe there's anyone who makes money with 1Q favs, especially 1Q MLs. Why would you pay -150 to -400 on a 12 minute gamble and lose all chances of a very likely comeback? Even today, I picked 4 dogs. Bulls, Kings, Heat, Raptors. 3 out of 4 won Q1, 1 won FT, two lost by over 25 points.

You might have a case for HT bets because some favs win HT by 16 then chill out and win by 7 on a -7.5 spread.

[Git Lo]

No way, I don't believe there's anyone who makes money with 1Q favs, especially 1Q MLs. Why would you pay -150 to -400 on a 12 minute gamble and lose all chances of a very likely comeback? Even today, I picked 4 dogs. Bulls, Kings, Heat, Raptors. 3 out of 4 won Q1, 1 won FT, two lost by over 25 points.

You might have a case for HT bets because some favs win HT by 16 then chill out and win by 7 on a -7.5 spread.

The angle with 1Q is pick the fav that completely overmatches the other team so you don't have to deal with the slack off that possibly comes later. Nowadays with the 3 chucking, even outmatched teams can put up offense so its harder to pick these spots. At the end of the day I could never pick a team just because they are a dog or fave so it really doesn't matter compared to what the actual line is. Raptors are probably underrated record wise because the team has been injured a lot.

[Gaze73]

Raptors are probably underrated record wise because the team has been injured a lot.

Raptors are somehow my most profitable team this season, can't believe they're still at the bottom of the table. Guess I just pick them in the right spots.

Anyway, double digit dogs seem even worse in 2H. Today I had Suns +13 - won HT by 2, lost Q3 by 27, how?
Bulls +11.5 - They somehow made a miraculous 21 point comeback to almost win HT from 27-6. FT Loss by 19.
Nuggets -11 - Q1 and Q2 both tied so I thought my bet is done. Q3 win by 18, FT by 25, easy.

DD dogs suck.

[Steelers05]

Bulls and Suns ML’s last night, Pelicans were another but weren’t on them but might as well should have been. All get pissed pumped in the 2H.

[Gaze73]

Another epic throw by Bulls. I had +7.5. Up by 24 in Q3, lost by 21.