Your pal Nasher is going to try this NBA handicapping thing. Portland / OKC over 226

[stevenash]

Here's the deal.

I normally don't wager NBA on a regular basis.
Just to fill a two week void until the Super Bowl (then I only devote my disposable time to the upcoming MLB season)
I'm going to apply geeky, nerdy, analytics to NBA.

I'm going to make ten NBA flat bets in the next 2 weeks (14 days)
I'll track them here.
My goal is to go 6 and 4 or better.
All bets are one unit, and one unit is equal to 50 dollars.
Let's see if I'm good at this, or if I really suck at this.

This is more or less an experiment I am no means an NBA savant.

First pick
1/25/21

Portland/OK City over 226 (Heritage)

Why?
Both teams average over 81 three point attempts a game combined (42.5 and 39)
Of those 81 attempts the two teams make on the average of 28.5 of them (35 percent)
That's a lot of points off of three pointers.
Portland tied for first in most three points shots attempted, Thunder takes the fourth most 3 point shots in the NBA.

I spent 20 minutes breaking down this game, I was looking at the OK City roster and stats because to be honest I needed to know more about them, that dude Luguentz Dort was nailing three's all last week I see before the Clips cooled him off. I didn't realize he was that good of a sharp shooter. I know Shai is averaging over 20 per game......
A lot of shooters in this game tonight besides the obvious Lillard.

226 is a reasonable total in my opinion
Over 226 1* is my play.

Like I said, I am not an NBA savant, I am just applying my analytics to NBA wagering and I am curious as to see if it works or not. Nobody is saying to fade me or tail me. Just an experiment so to speak.
Best of luck fellas,

[spippen]

Nice Nasher. Did not play but I did like it. Glad to see it hit with that nice write up.
Played Celts and Pistons.

[stevenash]

Nice Nasher. Did not play but I did like it. Glad to see it hit with that nice write up.
Played Celts and Pistons.

Thanks man, appreciate that.

Three games tonight, none of them are wager worthy.
I'll be back tomorrow for a selection with a fuller slate on tap.

[stevenash]

OK, off to a good start.
The Portland game went over Monday night.
Let's see if I am on to something here.

*disclaimer*
Once again I am not an NBA handicapping savant nor do I pretend to be.
I'm just experimenting with my nerdy analytics I use for other sports and applying it to the NBA.

I am not suggesting that you fade or tail me, I'm just tracking it here.

Big slate tonight.
After spending some time with each game the one total that stands out is this Utah/Dallas game.
Same principle I'm using here as I did with the Portland game Monday night.
Even without Donovan Mitchell (Utah) there's going to be a lot of scorers in this game albeit starting or off the bench.
Utah is third in the NBA (40) in 3 point attempts, and Dallas shoots a ton too.
There'll be about 80 three point attempts of which about 28 or so of them will go in.

I'm not going to get long winded here.

Over 220 Utah/Dallas
1* again

[wlulaxer]

Had it at 220.5, damn. It was the right call, they just coasted in 4th quarter. Thanks for sharing though, good luck to you going forward

[stevenash]

Had it at 220.5, damn. It was the right call, they just coasted in 4th quarter. Thanks for sharing though, good luck to you going forward

Thanks.
I appreciate the words.
I pushed, Utah was lights out for three quarters and took the fourth quarter off and mailed it in.
That happens a lot.

Thanks for reading.

[spippen]

This Jazz team is solid. (sometimes I like to state the obvious) No look past, no let up, beat a strong Dallas team with no problem. They beat trash teams on nights when other teams might look ahead or not try hard. Kudos to Coach Quin Snyder. They lost to a junk Knicks team and got their asses reamed out and are now even stronger. Other coaches on trash organizations would say :" No problem guys. We just lost to the Knicks, no big deal" and then watch the team lose the next 5 games because the coach shows weakness. Not this guy.

[stevenash]

Short slate tonight and I got nothing after looking at these four games.
Portland? They have injury issues.
Houston? They are a brand new team now and what's up with Wood?
In? Out? Maybe? All I know is Detroit let him go and he's a beast now.

No play tonight, big selection tomorrow.
See you then.
I can wait.

All the best of luck fellas.

[Miguelon]

any total tonight?

[stevenash]

any total tonight?

Funny you should mention that.
I was just about to write up a play that the more you look at it the more it looks like a solid over play.
But than again this is the NBA where anything can happen and usually does (don't ya know?)

Here's what I am going with.

Indiana / Charlotte OVER 221.5

Here's why.

Both teams do not defend the guards and scoring forwards very well.
Charlotte who is not really renowned for their offense has two starting guards that are good scorers, Rozier and Graham, and a high scoring forward in Gordon Heyward who is on a mission from God so far this season averaging over 25 per.

On the Pacers side Brogdon should get his off of Rozier, the SG Jeremy Lamb (my home boy from UConn) can shoot some, and then there's the stud Sabonis.

There's more than enough (in my opinion) scoring in this game on both sides and I don't think there's enough defense to keep his game under the mid 220's.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Best of luck fellas

[stevenash]

Sorry for the short notice here.
No time for write up.

Utah OVER 225

[wlulaxer]

Good luck Nash

[stevenash]

^
Thanks.

This one missed by a mile.
Oh well can't win 'em all.