I built an NBA model for quarters and halves this year that has hit right around 55% for about 1200+ plays. I started it about a week into the NBA season. I have other metrics I'm using to gauge the strength of the plays as well and those also point to a similar win rate.
I'm still refining the model and making tweaks. I expect it to get stronger but also expect the market to get stronger as both have so far. So I expect the win rate to continue to converge around 55% at least until the All Star break.
Not sure where I'm going with this or if I'll start a service at some point but for now I'll be posting plays here daily.
A few notes:
The plays are fairly high volume and all taken from one book, America's CardRoom (I believe ACR mirrors BookMaker). I don't account for -105 or -115. I have noticed about two thirds of the plays that are not -110, that I'm on the -115 side but this only accounts for a small proportion of the overall plays (maybe 80% are -110 lines overall).
I generally make the plays shortly after the quarter lines are released, I believe that's around 11 AM EST but this can vary from day to day. I sometimes add plays based on starting lineups as well - for example if AD plays tonight, it's possible I'll have some on the Lakers game.
The lines do change frequently throughout the day. This is generally due to the full game moving and the halves/quarters following shortly after. There is a fair amount of normal movement due to players moving the lines as well, particularly on the halves, but this is generally later in the day and closer to tipoff.
**There is correlation between some of the plays. The most obvious being if I'm playing something like 1Q over and 1H over. This ups the variance.
I'll have more information in time and happy to answer questions as I get a larger sample on here.
Disclaimer:
I had an old account on here (Piranha) that I haven't used in years (I never posted any plays). I couldn't find the email address this was associated with so I created this account. Hopefully this isn't a violation of the TOS
Good luck.
I'm still refining the model and making tweaks. I expect it to get stronger but also expect the market to get stronger as both have so far. So I expect the win rate to continue to converge around 55% at least until the All Star break.
Not sure where I'm going with this or if I'll start a service at some point but for now I'll be posting plays here daily.
A few notes:
The plays are fairly high volume and all taken from one book, America's CardRoom (I believe ACR mirrors BookMaker). I don't account for -105 or -115. I have noticed about two thirds of the plays that are not -110, that I'm on the -115 side but this only accounts for a small proportion of the overall plays (maybe 80% are -110 lines overall).
I generally make the plays shortly after the quarter lines are released, I believe that's around 11 AM EST but this can vary from day to day. I sometimes add plays based on starting lineups as well - for example if AD plays tonight, it's possible I'll have some on the Lakers game.
The lines do change frequently throughout the day. This is generally due to the full game moving and the halves/quarters following shortly after. There is a fair amount of normal movement due to players moving the lines as well, particularly on the halves, but this is generally later in the day and closer to tipoff.
**There is correlation between some of the plays. The most obvious being if I'm playing something like 1Q over and 1H over. This ups the variance.
I'll have more information in time and happy to answer questions as I get a larger sample on here.
Disclaimer:
I had an old account on here (Piranha) that I haven't used in years (I never posted any plays). I couldn't find the email address this was associated with so I created this account. Hopefully this isn't a violation of the TOS
Good luck.
