Celtics -3 is too good to be true

[QuantumLeap]

Celtics (16-10) have won and covered their last 6 in a row and play against the 11-16 Wizards who have lost their last 2.

The the Wiz +3!!

[Debacleov]

So because its too good and you think you can take advantage of it youre gonna take the other side?

Sounds like youve had a lot of bad beats and youre letting those influence your judgment

[IBetYou]

So because its too good and you think you can take advantage of it youre gonna take the other side?

Sounds like youve had a lot of bad beats and youre letting those influence your judgment

No, he's simply good enough to recognise when the line looks off, and is possibly good enough to discriminate the right times to follow the herd, without actually understanding the reasoning behind it. This one makes a good case study... Celtics have been scorching the earth of late so it seems unlikely the "herd" is the square market.

[IBetYou]

Or maybe people are just unwilling to forget how terrible the Celtics were through the first 6 weeks of the season...

[Debacleov]

When a line looks off you take advantage of it

You dont mindfuck yourself into slamming the other side

Of course I also can see when a line looks off

But often its because of an injury or something along those lines

You dont just take the weaker team because a line looks off

Recipe for long term disaster

[Conqueror]

So because its too good and you think you can take advantage of it youre gonna take the other side?

Sounds like youve had a lot of bad beats and youre letting those influence your judgment

You haven't been following him.
Books don't give away gifts like Santa. So when it looks too good to be true...

[IBetYou]

I disagree, it's not a bad strategy. Bit flimsy but workable. Obviously better to understand the true reasons behind a queer looking line.

[Debacleov]

So many times Ive seen a game that looked easy and it turned out to be just that

They dont have a crystal ball

Reminder they are simply trying to induce equal action on both sides

[europe_baller]

You haven't been following him.
Books don't give away gifts like Santa. So when it looks too good to be true...

Especially after they beat pels easy at home without irving as well.. This does seem completely bad line...I would say at least -5,-5.5.. Wiz are without Wall again... not sure...

[IBetYou]

Especially after they beat pels easy at home without irving as well.. This does seem completely bad line...I would say at least -5,-5.5.. Wiz are without Wall again... not sure...

Wall is probable. Porter is questionable. Horford & Hayward OUT.

[jtoler]

not must difference between a 16-10 team and a 11-16 team when that 16-10 team is on the road but Ive seen your past threads and understand the schtick here another game similar is okc -2 on the road at new orleans. also bucks -1.5 at indy. wiz not that good and have gotten worse over the years with brown and smart on beal, beal more than likely wont be going off unless they start brown at the 3 because of injuries at center. tatum still a problem. wiz have to come alive at some point though if they want to make the playoffs with a decent seed

[frankieunits2685]

i dont think this is a bad strategy whatsoever, ESPECIALLY in the NBA lol.

also OP- Quantum has had some good success with past threads following this theory if im not mistaken??

[jtoler]

i dont think this is a bad strategy whatsoever, ESPECIALLY in the NBA lol.

also OP- Quantum has had some good success with past threads following this theory if im not mistaken??

yes should work pretty well with home dogs mixed in with situational scheduling

[IBetYou]

yes should work pretty well with home dogs mixed in with situational scheduling

Don't forget injuries. Funny how injuries & expectations work... Last week if you told me the Celtics would be without Horford & Hayward I would think they're up against it. But a few tough wins without them, and getting Irving back and it can seem like they're supposed to win.

[sheedy17]

Wiz are missing there best player and another good roll player, if Kyrie, Horford and Hay were out, id still roll with Celtics -3. There clicking on all cylinders

[QuantumLeap]

No, he's simply good enough to recognise when the line looks off, and is possibly good enough to discriminate the right times to follow the herd, without actually understanding the reasoning behind it. This one makes a good case study... Celtics have been scorching the earth of late so it seems unlikely the "herd" is the square market.

Correct. I don't always list the reasons why I like a team but you guys always seem to help me see other points of view.

[QuantumLeap]

When a line looks off you take advantage of it

You dont mindfuck yourself into slamming the other side

Of course I also can see when a line looks off

But often its because of an injury or something along those lines

You dont just take the weaker team because a line looks off

Recipe for long term disaster

Agreed. Good points. One shouldn't bet a team simply because the line looks off.

[QuantumLeap]

So many times Ive seen a game that looked easy and it turned out to be just that

They dont have a crystal ball

Reminder they are simply trying to induce equal action on both sides

I agree wholeheartedly about some of these just being wrong. But I think the books gamble sometimes and put out a line that looks off to get one-sided action. They aren't always right when they do but I believe they are right more times than not.

[QuantumLeap]

not must difference between a 16-10 team and a 11-16 team when that 16-10 team is on the road but Ive seen your past threads and understand the schtick here another game similar is okc -2 on the road at new orleans. also bucks -1.5 at indy. wiz not that good and have gotten worse over the years with brown and smart on beal, beal more than likely wont be going off unless they start brown at the 3 because of injuries at center. tatum still a problem. wiz have to come alive at some point though if they want to make the playoffs with a decent seed

You are understanding some of the reasons I bet these. I will probably be betting more money on Indy but I don't want to start too many of these threads. Every once in awhile it seems to get people thinking and that's what I'm looking for.

[QuantumLeap]

i dont think this is a bad strategy whatsoever, ESPECIALLY in the NBA lol.

also OP- Quantum has had some good success with past threads following this theory if im not mistaken??

I started out going 7-2 but have since gone something like 3-3 since.

[sheedy17]

my mistake, wall is in, im staying away but still like Celtics

[IBetYou]

Gets worse for the Cs; J.Brown OUT.

[QuantumLeap]

Goes to OT where the Wiz let it slip away.