CK/wangichu's Think Tank

[suckatmyjob]

every since any of the challenges everyone should be up



up is up even if it's a little you cant win eveyr single week and it's all about money management

bet same amt every game and a little more on PC plays, Heavy plays or plays these teams agree on or the 2 that are in the competition u you should be up a decent amount

everyone has a bad streak so move on to sunday or MLB tomorrow

later and best of luck to everyone

[wangichu]

researching these plays, but my instant leans are heavy on BOS ML and Lakers laying the points (buy 3). probably parlay them together. I think that the abscence of yao ming turned this series into a home dominant series because the only way the rockets or lakers can get off is if they're at home. I'm going to compare the box scores from games 4 and 6, i think they'll look similar which will lead me to believe that the lakers will smack them around by 20+ in game 7.

Meanwhile both teams were hella off in the orlando boston game, but i think it is all summed up by this... i have never seen paul pierce miss consecutive free throws, and secondly, ray allen will not go 0-7 from behind the arc. The celtics will get a few more free throws from home reffing... definitely research to come, but early leans...


** seeing the spread at orlando +1 really makes me think the books are trying to push people on the celtics. I really do believe that orlando is the better team, i just can't argue that they are as mentally tough and clutch as the celtics... definitely going to need to look at this one, but i'm thinking a good place to start might be getting them in the first quarter and first half, last game was a rare instance of them getting out extremely slow and that's just too rare for them to expect it to happen again here... plus, they get points this time.

[sweetjones55]

Celtics are 32-0 in playoff series when leading 3-2.

[BL]

leaning OVER 186 for Orlando@Boston!
Nice line because of yesterday. Close Out Game and a better FG-percentage plus a couple of FTs expected. What do you think about this one ?

[sweetjones55]

Close out games are usually over calls. There are usually a lot more free throws at the end of the game also in game 7. The team losing just keeps fouling even down by 10 with 30 seconds.

[SexyMit]

Last night were close out games also and they didn't even come within 20 of the O/U both games

[BL]

so maybe one more reason it will come on sunday ?

[cocknocker]

Am I right to say we fade the winner of Orlando/Celtics and Lakers/Houston in the first game of the Conference playoffs, CK?

Correct! That means take the Nuggets and the Cavs in Game 1 of both Finals Series

[djpremier36]

Hey CK or Wang,

Assuming the BOS/ORL line jumps to 4...what do you think of buying 3 points to get ORL at +7 with 85% taking BOS?

[Dexter]

the greek is showing the celts at -2 in game 7. i had my projected line at 4.

jump on that now if you like boston. that line is an oddsmakers error that the sharps may correct very soon.

i just got down on -3, but had to increase my size to 5x for this one. up to this point, i have played every nba playoff game at 3x and have finally gotten back to 13-13 after a horrid start. now my bet sizes vary.

celtics -3 (5x)

[anthonydiamondLC]

I'm all over magic and lakers for sunday!

[wangichu]

Hey CK or Wang,

Assuming the BOS/ORL line jumps to 4...what do you think of buying 3 points to get ORL at +7 with 85% taking BOS?

ya... something's afoot here, I just don't think the celtics can win this by more than 2 (MAYBE 3) if they even win at all and i can't help but feel like the books want boston money. All i'm saying, is that's probably what i'll do.

[wangichu]

I'm all over magic and lakers for sunday!

hell, ya i'm thinking they can both be tapped for the wire to wire special too. Lakers should blow the rockets out again, and the magic should jump on the celtics early and who knows late, but i wouldn't be surprised to see them hold it this time.

[BL]

leaning Lakers 1st half -7. I like this one better than Lakers -12. You already got an oppinion about the totals? I like the over in Boston so far..

[cocknocker]

Boston will shoot 38 free throws and win the game with the help from the zebras. Lakers will blow the Rockets out of the gym in the third quarter and we will be looking forward to the PC Play on Denver in game 1 of their series. Boston against Cleveland can get a little tricky as far as being PC strength if the line is 8.5 for more with Cleveland as the favorite. We're sure to get the Nuggets with value, as the 2008-2009 Lakers are one of the most overvalued teams in wagering history.

Tread lightly wagering against the Celtics at home, lads...

[BL]

Lakers will blow the Rockets out of the gym in the third quarter and we will be looking forward to the PC Play on Denver in game 1 of their series.

So you don't see the Lakers showing a similar Kickstart like they did in Game5 ? So far i am leaning on LA -3,5 1Q. But after your post really doubting if it is the right one.

[alittlemoresound]

the play here is to Tease the ROCKETS AND the CELTICS... its the playoffs.....

[coolmil]

Boston will shoot 38 free throws and win the game with the help from the zebras. Lakers will blow the Rockets out of the gym in the third quarter and we will be looking forward to the PC Play on Denver in game 1 of their series. Boston against Cleveland can get a little tricky as far as being PC strength if the line is 8.5 for more with Cleveland as the favorite. We're sure to get the Nuggets with value, as the 2008-2009 Lakers are one of the most overvalued teams in wagering history.

Tread lightly wagering against the Celtics at home, lads...

LV books want all the money they can get on the Celtics -2.

Why???

[wangichu]

So you don't see the Lakers showing a similar Kickstart like they did in Game5 ? So far i am leaning on LA -3,5 1Q. But after your post really doubting if it is the right one.

the team that has won/covered the first quarter has won/covered the game in every game in this series. If you think the lakers win/cover, the first quarter bet should be good. I myself am going wire to wire on this one, or as i call it, riding the laker train.

[cs11787]

Remember the stats I put up for Lakers after a SU loss to the Rockets. Lakers will roll and roll down hill with this one. Going with the same plays I did in game 5...
LAL -9.5 (2.5 point buy)
LAL team total o103
As for the Boston game, it looks like Boston should take of game 7 at home. This Orlando team is way too inconsistent and Boston has the championship experience. Boston will get their act together and play Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Championship. I have Orlando to win the series so Im gonna hedge that bet and take...
Bos ML (-150)

[RoagBettor]

Remember the stats I put up for Lakers after a SU loss to the Rockets. Lakers will roll and roll down hill with this one. Going with the same plays I did in game 5...
LAL -9.5 (2.5 point buy)
LAL team total o103
As for the Boston game, it looks like Boston should take of game 7 at home. This Orlando team is way too inconsistent and Boston has the championship experience. Boston will get their act together and play Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Championship. I have Orlando to win the series so Im gonna hedge that bet and take...
Bos ML (-150)

Why not buy Boston down to -1 at -140 instead of ML -150? The game can't end in a tie.

[sweetjones55]

Because Boston already had a game where they won by 1 point and nobody wants to push.

[BL]

the team that has won/covered the first quarter has won/covered the game in every game in this series. If you think the lakers win/cover, the first quarter bet should be good. I myself am going wire to wire on this one, or as i call it, riding the laker train.

Thanks for your posting. So i will go with Lakers 1Q and roll the Lakers train as well

[RoagBettor]

Because Boston already had a game where they won by 1 point and nobody wants to push.

Good point!

[anthonydiamondLC]

UNDER 186 is looking to be like a money play as well. This should be a tight game the whole way out with many possessions taking longer then 14 seconds. Gonna be on the under!

[The_Kid]

I'm going with Lakers 1Q -4 and Lakers 1H -7.5. Will also play a prop bet involving Kobe.

[cocknocker]

Tread lightly when wagering against the Celtics and their referees in a game 7 at the Garden.It is monetary suicide... I don't know what's wrong with you guys. Did you or did you not see the Magic win the last game by double digits or was it just me? Boston is gonna crush the Magic tomorrow. The sad truth is that when your leader isn't clutch, you can't win in the clutch. Dwight Howard is far from clutch. The Magic just aren't smart enough of a team to win this pressure cooked type of game.

Orlando gets the beer can treatment in this one. Bye-bye Orlando....

[dakid04200]

So... Boston wins easy?! Damn I hate to think that!!

[melincrea]

I'm on:

Celts -2
Lakers -12

for tomorrow... but, I'm a little scared because it seems whenever there is a big game day ahead of us (like this years college basketball semi-finals or finals I believe), one underdog wins, and one favorite wins. By win, I mean cover the spread (possibly SU as well).

If this were the case, I would highly doubt that Lakers would lose a game tomorrow, while at home, after a performance like that - the revenge factor is in play now. With the whole underdog/favorite theory, it makes me lean towards Orlando ML and +2.5. But like the Lakers, Boston also lost their last game. They should have won game 6 and ended the series right there and then.

Perhaps this is what the books would like us to think, that one underdog and one favorite always win in situations like these, but they are changing it up today.

So while writing this long post, I have concluded that:

-the books do run the game
-the books want us to think one dog and one favorite will win tomorrow
-in reference to the above point (keyword think), the books have already made their money from Boston game 6 with quarters/halves/game and totals
-with that said, tomorrows game will go as it should; with Boston beating Orlando by 8+ points

[The_Kid]

Orlando is a stupid team and they have an even stupider coach. The Magic SHOULD have won this series a long time ago but now it comes down to a Game 7 and I am more confident in the Celtics at this point.

[wangichu]

Tread lightly when wagering against the Celtics and their referees in a game 7 at the Garden.It is monetary suicide... I don't know what's wrong with you guys. Did you or did you not see the Magic win the last game by double digits or was it just me? Boston is gonna crush the Magic tomorrow. The sad truth is that when your leader isn't clutch, you can't win in the clutch. Dwight Howard is far from clutch. The Magic just aren't smart enough of a team to win this pressure cooked type of game.

Orlando gets the beer can treatment in this one. Bye-bye Orlando....

i don't really know what a double digit magic victory would mean here, but they won 83-75... by 8 ... and i hear everything you're saying... but i just can't bring myself to believe that the books seriously messed up with the game 7 line, after dropping game 6 to make it hard to play the magic at -7 (biggest line in this series)... something is amiss, and i'd rather lose my money playing the team that the books seem to be pushing me away from than the team that has been advertised as a lock on espn for the last 4 days (that whole 32-0 thing is just a little too in my face not to feel it wants to mislead me). Plus, knowing the celtics flair for the dramatic, a 2 - 3 point win would hardly surprise me, meaning i feel like i have a lot more insurance playing on the magic at +6

[sweetjones55]

Tread lightly when wagering against the Celtics and their referees in a game 7 at the Garden.It is monetary suicide... I don't know what's wrong with you guys. Did you or did you not see the Magic win the last game by double digits or was it just me? Boston is gonna crush the Magic tomorrow. The sad truth is that when your leader isn't clutch, you can't win in the clutch. Dwight Howard is far from clutch. The Magic just aren't smart enough of a team to win this pressure cooked type of game.

Orlando gets the beer can treatment in this one. Bye-bye Orlando....

CK, I completely agree. The Magic do not have a go to guy in the last six minutes of the game that they can count on to step up on the road. They can't count on Dwight to hit free throws in the last 6 minutes. They are estatic if the guy hits one out of two in the 4th quarter (his average in clutch time is 59%ft). Look at Dwight Howard cluch stats, specifically points on 82games.com. He is below Udonis Haslem and Wilson Chandler for christs sake . The clutchest player that Orlando has according to these clutch stats is sitting on the bench, Jameer Nelson. They don't have one player in the top 40 in clutch stats. Pierce is #9 on clutch stats. Eddie house who comes off the bench is ranked ahead of every single Orlando player in clutch stat points. You NEED clutch players to have a chance to win against the defending world champions in the Garden game 7. Van Gundy himself said that the more experienced/veteran team has the advantage in a game 7. Also,I can't see this game being won at the end of the 1st half and Boston has been owning Orlando in the 2nd half at home thusfar.

[Trixie]

LAKERS/ROCKETS OVER 48 1ST QTR

I know that the books are expecting an under for this game, but that can easily still happen in spite of a high-scoring first quarter. I have to assume a massive reaction from the Lakers after losing embarrassingly to the Rockets last time out, as has happened so far this series. But more importantly, in every game that the Lakers have won, they have scored at least 30 points in the first quarter:

GAME 2: 1ST QTR: LAKERS (39) Rockets (25) - total [64]
GAME 3: 1ST QTR: LAKERS (30) Rockets (28) - total [58]
GAME 5: 1ST QTR: LAKERS (35) Rockets (24) - total [59]

The Lakers -- for reasons unknown -- seem to have a tough time defending the Rockets, so I have to assume that they can AT LEAST hit 19 points for the today's first quarter. They have not failed to score less than 21 in a first quarter thus far.

The total is set at 196 or so now and so the books are just dividing that number by 4 and making that the total for each quarter. Or at least my book is. However, if you look at the stats it looks like whenever the Lakers have won, they have exploded in the first half and then slowed down progressively as the game has gone on. The first quarter has statistically been the highest scoring in every Lakers win so far.

In both games following a Rocket win, the total for the 1st quarter has been (64) and (59).

I'm also on Lakers -10 (bought points) and leaning Magic but I just can't pull the trigger...

[cocknocker]

I'm gonna roll with the Rockets/Lakers under 194.5 today

[swilldoggy420]

nice call....as usual. Them books trying to sucker pub into taking the over with the RLM!

BOL all!