Leans for Saturday 4/11/09

[RoagBettor]

Dwight Howard tanked that game last night. It looked just like those movies where the star of the team is in cahoots with the mob. Even the announcers couldn't believe how he was playing in a game they should have won by 20+.

[King_Bookie]

yeah, ive noticed that a while back, check your thread. i think thats the phoe game.

you made the correct and gutsy call on port and mem yesterday.

now, we have another disagreement. stan played his starter, hedo and howard 40+ mins each. that signals that he is not willing to rest his stars if they cant clinch the game. i know they are not playing for anything anymore. with their lost to NY, no way can they catch up with bos. and orl record on back to back are not bad either, esp if harris is not playing and frank will definitely use his bench talents, roberts, hayes, bobby. so the burden of leading the team will fall on carter ( probably limited mins ), lopez, anderson, dooling.

to sum it up. orl looks like the live dog.

how do you see the game going?

I'm playing this one basically because I bet against the public favorite (75%+, but it has dwindled down to 70%+). Another angle I'm looking is the small reverse line. The line started at +6 IIRC and the public pounded on the Magic, then the line went down to +5.5 and that is an automatic play for me.

I see the game ending in only two scenarios:

1. NJ covers by playing until the end.
2. Magic covers by blowing the fck out of the Nets.

I initially leaned on Magic on this one but the small reverse line and public betting on them scared me off to the other side. Again, BoL to us.

And to those reading the challenge thread with HoulihansTX, out of the money I am allotting for this day 50% of those went to Minnesota, 20% to New Jersey and the rest for the 4 other teams(small plays).

EDIT: Oh, baby my book has GS at +18.... holy mother fscking cow.

[NBA Hero]

king bookie,

you are that confident on laying a big amount/ percentage on minn.
after what phoe showed last night, books night have an angle here giving the points on a rested and hot minn as of late. 2 win streak if i remember it right.

[repski]

OKC +7

-give me anybody +7 vs Milwaukee...
-Milwaukee has lost 9 of their last 10 games (2-8 ATS over that span)
-Bucks have lost 5 straight at home.
-Thunder are still playing good ball, beating Charlotte outright 84-81 yesterday.
-They're playing in the tail end of a BTB, but they are 11-5 ATS with no rest this season
-OKC has been good on the road ATS going 23-14 ATS away on the season
-OKC is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 meetings with the Bucks

[sweetjones55]

Timberwolves/Suns Under 223.5 HEAVY.. Read my thread, I think I did a decent writeup.

[King_Bookie]

king bookie,

you are that confident on laying a big amount/ percentage on minn.
after what phoe showed last night, books night have an angle here giving the points on a rested and hot minn as of late. 2 win streak if i remember it right.

I am that confident on that crappy team

If the line moves on to Phoenix +1 or more, expect me to make my heaviest bet in a long time.

[bemo]

CK the lines for the Bulls/Jazz are -9.5/-16.5 respectively, are you still going with those plays without buying any points?

[cocknocker]

My book has the Jazz at -14.5, so i bought 3 points and played them at -11.5. As far as the Bulls are concerned, I played them at -8 with a 1 point buy

[bemo]

yea lines just moved for my book with the utah down to -14.5

going to wait a little bit and see if it moves down some more.

[dennisback]

yea 77% on gsw line should go down

[Tennispro]

Another teasing day, today i am going to tease the Bulls and the Pistons.

[Vreston]

CK the bulls are at -9.5 at my book and I can't buy points. Is that too much to play the spread? What do you think? Should I go for it anyway?
Thanks

[TheLemonDropKid]

Hey guys.......call me crazy, but I would think the Bobbies would be the call in that CHI game. CHA has lost 4 in a row ATS and they have only lost 4 in a row ATS one other time this year....and they won that next game ATS.

An obvious pick to me seems to be ORL -6 against the Nets. Nobody is talking about that one either.

Also digging the GS/UTAH Under......Utah has gone Over for 7 straight games.......that just can't continue.

Thoughts?

[Bayno82]

I agree with LemonDrop in that the Bobs have won all three meetings this season, have just come off a demoralising loss and have been knocked out of playoff contention but I think the spread is a couple of points too high. Because of this I am actually going to stay away from this as the bulls will win but by double digits is pushing it.

The picks I am liking is Minnesota, Orlando and Detroit, although Orlando scares me in that they seem to be cruising into the playoffs and not taking any games seriously.

Migh also consider Okhlahoma and Portland as plays

[sweetjones55]

I am not a fan of teasers but I like this Teaser Bet:
Orl -1.5
Port -1.5
Timberwolves +6.5
under 229.5 Timberwolves/Suns
Bulls -4.5.
Pays 3.3-1

[HoulihansTX]

Dont play the Jazz at anything more than -13. They are on a back to back, coming off a loss, and their playoff fate is practically sealed. Expect a complacent team, at home who will rely on its fans to get them through their game. Warriors have much fight in them. Warriors have no reason to tank since they will be pick at the bottom of the lottery no matter.

I say this because that is the number I came up with after capping the game.

[italiano22]

Im on the thunder +6......i like this play alot anyone on it with me

[cs11787]

Det seems like a team with a mission right now. Im gonna take them on the ML!

[esz04]

Anyone have any thoughts on the Pistons-Pacers under? Public pounding the over and it's fallen from 207.5 to 205.

[Idawg357]

three thumbs up on thats

Why is everyone looking over the Pacers at home against a Pistons team that just wrapped up a playoff spot. That's all the Pistons talked about achieving this year and now they have done it.... I don't see them playing there A game against a tough home opponent in the Pacers.... Pacers -1 is the only play for me tonight.

[Idawg357]

indi -1 , chic-8 nets plus 7.5 witha point my picks

[Pajda]

8 points teaser:

Minnesota Timberwolves +10
Portland Trail Blazers +1½
Chicago Bulls -1½

[dennisback]

5.5 point teaser:

Portland -1
Charlotte +15
OKC +12
GSW +20

[Jimbo42]

Booked:
Detroit + 1/2 2nd half

[King_Bookie]

*scratches head*

What's minnesota doing? Oh well, what did I expect from a crappy team. Go nets!

[The_Kid]

Is Phoenix actually playing D or is Minnesota throwing up bricks?

[King_Bookie]

Minnesota throwing bricks.

4-24

16.7% from the field omfg.

EDIT: Finally, I see progress on the pups' side.

[Pajda]

Is Phoenix actually playing D or is Minnesota throwing up bricks?

Not really, T-sheeps can't even hit FT

[Jimbo42]

BIG THREE by Rip Hamilton! Detroit takes the lead... let's hold on baybee

[Jimbo42]

Aaaaaaarrrrggghhhhh! Lose by half point!

[HoulihansTX]

This looks like a great day for the Books. Horrible day for us to be betting. Or at least for me. Got to rebound tomorrow hard.

[Bayno82]

Utah Second half line

What are peoples thoughts on Utah for the second half, surely they cant continue to play this bad

[King_Bookie]

If I could I would have put money on these two

POR 1H -anything
GS 2H +11

[Jimbo42]

Booked:
Clippers +6

[SoonerGreg]

Why do you like the Clipps?