People's Champ's and Mafia Leans for Wednesday 03/25/2009

[pho3nix32]

the plays that will cash for wednesday are...

[BebeRebozo]

Cleveland Cavaliers -12,5
Minnesota Timberwolves +10
New York Knicks ML
Dallas Mavericks ML

[jasonjep]

Boston Celtics +3.5

You can thank me later

[stakagrp]

My buddy has been playing "Moneyline Parlays" and seems to be hitting very nicely. A matter of fact it has been doing so well that our local book wouldn't let us play teams with moneylines over -800 in our parlays. Even though the parlays don't pay out quite as well, but with the season ending, certain teams seem to be almost guaranteed wins. Any thoughts from the board as to which teams look good winning straight up?

Min+10 Phi wins su, but maybe too big of a spread for them to cover.
Mil+3 Still fighting for a possible spot in the playoffs. Besides, Tor still sucks no matter where they play.
NJ+12.5 Shorthanded team but just won't give in with the possibility for 8th spot in the playoffs. Been beaten twice already by Cleveland so maybe another loss but a backdoor cover.
Nyk-7
Bos+3.5
Gsw+9.5
Pho-3.5

All possibilities, but nothing locked in for tomorrow. I'm all ears for the board's input on picks and please, if there are any picks for straight up wins for me to put in my moneyline parlay for today, post them. Thanks!

[MrWendell]

Knicks - Clippers Under 216 BIG like this one alot.

[Jimbo42]

Allright here are the plays I'm looking at:

INDIANA at home vs. Miami (line is not out yet)
SAN ANTONIO +pts vs Atlanta

[csimmalavong]

looks like im gonna be all over atl once again..

as for knicks, still not betting on them, too unpredictable

[peterpan19]

here are todays picks as of now:

CHA -3 (projected)
They just need this win to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot... nothing more to say

Min +10.5
they are 4-1 ATS in Phi...Phi just comes home after a long west coast road trip... ok they have some momentum going, but Min just owned this team over the last few years... Phi will probably win but they wont cover...they are only 2-2 this season at home when the spread is 10+...Min is 8-2 ATS when the spread is 10+ on the road this season...

NYJ +13
b2b game against the Cavs and the Nets didnt play that bad in the first game... Cleveland will win this game, but will they blow them out ? I say no and take the big road dog today... plus Jersey is 10-3 ATS in Cleveland...

NO -4 (projected)
5-1 ATS and 4-2 SU against Denver... NO is hot right now... they might not blow them out but I think they should cover the small home chalk today...

Dal -9.5
4-1 ATS and 5-0 SU... GS normally never plays well in Texas... they might did yesterday ... but today I smell blowout... plus Dallas has revenge on their minds from last weeks loss on the road against the Warriors

slight leans:uta, bos, atl but nothing final as of now...

GL

[Karayilan9]

Cleveland 1st QTR

76'ers 1st QTR

76'ers Overall 1st QTR - 61% Win
Timberwolves Overall 1st QTR - 35%

76'ers Last 10 1st QTR @ Home - W 6 L 3 D 1

Most of 76'ers last games were away, so current record could be better/worse

76'ers Last 10 1st QTR Overall - W 7 L 2 D 1

76'ers currently doing a bit better than their overall 1st QTR Win stat! > 70%

Timberwolves Last 10 1st QTR Away - W 2 L 8 / 20%

Timberwolves even worse away than overall record

Compare recent overall results

Timberwolves Last 10 1st QTR Overall - W 2 L 8 / 20%

76'ers 1st QTR looks good.

What do you guys think, is there any angle I'm missing here? Could this game being 76'ers first Home game after playing on the road for 5 games be a disadvantage?

[RoagBettor]

The only thing that concerns me is Philly is coming off that tough West Coast trip. How fresh are their legs? Will if affect their 1st Qtr performance or the 2H/4Q?

[King_Bookie]

Just came back from a 1 day hiatus to recover from that horrible streak. I was planning on resting for the week but I just saw a mother fukkin play that I had as much confidence as betting on the Hawks at home.

MIN @ PHI -> MIN+10 (ALL-IN = $1000)

After winning that all-in play for the Atlanta against Cleveland, I went on a horrible streak. I muttered to myself if I was just not cut out for it. I'll request a sign from (The gambling) God if I were to continue this. I looked over for some quality games and noticed that all of them are risky plays one way or the other. Then I saw this one, Minnesota was clobbered by Atlanta at home but managed to catch up to win the spread (+12.5). Now Philly is just coming back from a tiring road trip and its no secret in the NBA that generally, teams coming back from long-ass road trips are usually set back by some unknown force (either they don't cover the spread or lose outright. There are some exceptions but they are that, EXCEPTIONS).

I also noticed that in the past 10 meetings, Philly has never led the timberpuppies by more than 7 points. This may indicate that Minnesota knows Philly's number and may just pull of another upset tomorrow. I also looked at the trends and while the wolves have some cold streak going on, they have a hot one to make up for it. On the other hand, Philadelphia's streaks have been mediocre at best. Few have also noticed this but Minnesota is one of the few teams whose road record is better than its home(although both are abbysmal at best). They also have a nice 21-13-1 ATS away record while on the road compared to Philly's modest 15-17-2 ATS home record.

My bankroll may not be as much as most of you guys here but I am quite confident on this play. Some of you might say that I should never go all in on anyone team but my resolve is firm, and no one can talk me out of this. Don't tail me just because I went all in(again), and on a crappy ass team to boot... But you just never give DD spreads for a road monster. Do or die, this decides whether I stay or not.

Good luck to all.

[peterpan19]

king_bookie

cant say I like that all in move of yours... dont know if it is a royal flush, but I am sure it is a full house (3Q 2T).... but I am with you on min...

GL

[King_Bookie]

Nobody likes all-in bets, because it decides major things. But I am a risk-taker by nature as shown by the play for Atlanta (which barely covered the spread).

I treat this play as a pair of 5, hoping for the enemy to have no combination whatsoever.

[RoagBettor]

Well, when it looks like a sure thing that's the time to be most cautious. The oddsmakers certainly know their stuff, but good luck. It looks like a good play for my 8 pt teaser with MN +17.5

[RoagBettor]

It's going to be hard to pass up this teaser:

MN +17.5
NJ +20.5
UTAH +10.5 (or GS +17.5)

[Karayilan9]

Well I hope 76'ers win the 1stQ then crumble so we can all be happy

[repski]

Before getting excited over Utah tonight as I was (seems easy) consider:

-Utah is just 11-24 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons
-Utah is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
-The Suns are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

[peeiempee]

Nobody likes all-in bets, because it decides major things. But I am a risk-taker by nature as shown by the play for Atlanta (which barely covered the spread).

I treat this play as a pair of 5, hoping for the enemy to have no combination whatsoever.

I went all in many times. After a series of losses after the denver, boston parlay, I was down like 5Gs. Put the remaining 4Gs on Weber State 2nd half and cashed. Back in the game. But last friday was bad with syracuse losing the 2nd half, cornell and louisville losing, but I got back on monday with miami and boston under for 2nd half. Point being is you have to do it sometimes...

Good luck

[repski]

Just came back from a 1 day hiatus to recover from that horrible streak. I was planning on resting for the week but I just saw a mother fukkin play that I had as much confidence as betting on the Hawks at home.

MIN @ PHI -> MIN+10 (ALL-IN = $1000)

After winning that all-in play for the Atlanta against Cleveland, I went on a horrible streak. I muttered to myself if I was just not cut out for it. I'll request a sign from (The gambling) God if I were to continue this. I looked over for some quality games and noticed that all of them are risky plays one way or the other. Then I saw this one, Minnesota was clobbered by Atlanta at home but managed to catch up to win the spread (+12.5). Now Philly is just coming back from a tiring road trip and its no secret in the NBA that generally, teams coming back from long-ass road trips are usually set back by some unknown force (either they don't cover the spread or lose outright. There are some exceptions but they are that, EXCEPTIONS).

I also noticed that in the past 10 meetings, Philly has never led the timberpuppies by more than 7 points. This may indicate that Minnesota knows Philly's number and may just pull of another upset tomorrow. I also looked at the trends and while the wolves have some cold streak going on, they have a hot one to make up for it. On the other hand, Philadelphia's streaks have been mediocre at best. Few have also noticed this but Minnesota is one of the few teams whose road record is better than its home(although both are abbysmal at best). They also have a nice 21-13-1 ATS away record while on the road compared to Philly's modest 15-17-2 ATS home record.

My bankroll may not be as much as most of you guys here but I am quite confident on this play. Some of you might say that I should never go all in on anyone team but my resolve is firm, and no one can talk me out of this. Don't tail me just because I went all in(again), and on a crappy ass team to boot... But you just never give DD spreads for a road monster. Do or die, this decides whether I stay or not.

Good luck to all.

Remember that Atlanta cover was a once in a lifetime comeback and the WRONG side( I had the same bet)...but a win is a win.

The key to this game is money management....this ain't poker where your gonna "bluff" the bookie by going all in BOL to you on your wager, but if your serious about this you don't bet like that...capital conservation is most important..

[King_Bookie]

Remember that Atlanta cover was a once in a lifetime comeback and the WRONG side( I had the same bet)...but a win is a win.

The key to this game is money management....this ain't poker where your gonna "bluff" the bookie by going all in BOL to you on your wager, but if your serious about this you don't bet like that...capital conservation is most important..

True and I won't even argue my position because you're absolutely right.

[NBA Hero]

roll with utah, even at the road

dal, without capt jack , crawford, biedrins

[repski]

Dallas -9.5
-Mavs are 17-12 ATS on the season, when facing a team in revenge situation
-Mavs are 10-5 ATS their last 15 games against teams which allow greater than 99 points per game.
-Mavs are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five times they hosted the Warriors. They won those five games by an average of 20 points
-Mavs are rested...off since Friday and GS is playing their 6th game in 9 nights...

[RoagBettor]

Well Florida sunk me last night on my Teaser. I thought they were a solid pick -2.5 at home.

Tonight I try to get back on track with the following 3 Team/8 Pt Teasers:

#1: $120 to win $100

LAC/NYN under 224
GS/Dal over 217.5
Utah/Pho over 221

#2 ($240 to win $200)

Minnesota +18.5
Miami +9.5
SA/ATL over 171

Also, playing a 6 Team Parlay ($27.80 to win $568.05):

Phi -7
Mia/Ind over 202.5
NJ +14.5
Den/NO over 194
Notre Dame -.5
Stanford -1

As always, I buy 2 pts for the parlays.

[Madetowin]

Loving MINN ML.

[King_Bookie]

Can you state why? I can't see minnesota winning the game outright even if I looked at different angles....

[peterpan19]

booked plays for today:
NJ +12
Min +10
Dal -9.5
NO -4
ATL -6.5 (instead of the Char pick)

GL

[cocknocker]

My three challenge picks:

San Diego State-3

Dallas-9.5

Denver+4.5

[suckatmyjob]

anything wrong with this ORL/BOS line?

anyone else liking the Orlando magic here??

ck loving the San Diego pick

[SportsTerminator]

Minnesota hahaha... just like Oklahoma City Thunder was supposed to cover and win right hahaha...
Are you all forgetting Minnesota does not have Al Jefferson. In the past 10 meetings Minnesota had AL Jefferson. Minnesota is just THAT team to bet against. 76ers are going to stomp Minnesota just how they stomped Toronto. This is Minnesota we're talking about people. If your looking for an upset I beg to take Utah which they should win. On the NY Knicks vs. LA Clippers both teams don't play to their potential. Stay away from this and expect anything I mean anything l0l. IF Granger plays I like Indiana over Miami. I like Denver over New Orleans simply because New Orleans seem to be short handed due to injuries. Their are some key players on the injured list, check it. Expect NJ to get the smack layed down l0l. Dallas and Golden State will be a good close one. The way Golden State been playing they might steal this so idk. Spurs have been playing like crap so I like Atlanta over Spurs. The tough Bucks over struggling Toronto. Charlotte Bobcats should win over Washington. But Charlotte has been choking lately so I wouldn't be surprised if they lost. Again Utah over Phoenix, Utah is just a better team. Expect a lot of points in the paint by Utah, No Amare Stoudemire. Orlando vs. Boston... hmmm Orlando has been playing like crap lately and Boston has enough fire power... I like Boston over Orlando.

[haserfauld]

My two challenge picks:

San Diego State-3

Dallas-9.5

Is Sd State pick fading the public? my line just jumped from 3.5 to 2.5. Is there something I don't know? I'm about to pull the trigger (buying the hook) sd state -2

[repski]

Bos/Orl under 189

-Bos 19-8 under ATS on the road
-Bos is 12-4 under ATS as a road underdog
-Orlando is has gone under 5 of the last 6 @ home
-Orlando has gone under in their last 5 overall
-In this rivalry, the under is 5-1 in the last six matchups in Florida.

[King_Bookie]

Minnesota hahaha... just like Oklahoma City Thunder was supposed to cover and win right hahaha...
Are you all forgetting Minnesota does not have Al Jefferson. In the past 10 meetings Minnesota had AL Jefferson. Minnesota is just THAT team to bet against. 76ers are going to stomp Minnesota just how they stomped Toronto. This is Minnesota we're talking about people. If your looking for an upset I beg to take Utah which they should win. On the NY Knicks vs. LA Clippers both teams don't play to their potential. Stay away from this and expect anything I mean anything l0l. IF Granger plays I like Indiana over Miami. I like Denver over New Orleans simply because New Orleans seem to be short handed due to injuries. Their are some key players on the injured list, check it. Expect NJ to get the smack layed down l0l. Dallas and Golden State will be a good close one. The way Golden State been playing they might steal this so idk. Spurs have been playing like crap so I like Atlanta over Spurs. The tough Bucks over struggling Toronto. Charlotte Bobcats should win over Washington. But Charlotte has been choking lately so I wouldn't be surprised if they lost. Again Utah over Phoenix, Utah is just a better team. Expect a lot of points in the paint by Utah, No Amare Stoudemire. Orlando vs. Boston... hmmm Orlando has been playing like crap lately and Boston has enough fire power... I like Boston over Orlando.

Well, good luck to you sir. Hopefully both our games cashes in later.

[Cassidy]

RLM on San Diego St? now at -3.5 with 77% on Saint Marys.

[repski]

ND/Kentucky under 145

Kentucky has stayed under the total in five straight games overall
Kentucky has gone under in four consecutive road games
Notre Dame has gone under in 10 of 11 overall and 8 in a row
ND has gone under in 13 of their last 16 at home...6 in a row
ND has gone under in their last 7 in a row.

[haserfauld]

RLM on San Diego St? now at -3.5 with 77% on Saint Marys.

mine jumped to 2.5