Mafia Leans for Monday 03/23/2009

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  • King_Bookie
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 03-07-09
    • 602

    #36
    After going on for my 2nd day of 0-3s, its time to analyze some sh!t. My bets:

    DEN @ PHO -> PHO -3.5

    The Lakers have not won at the Rose Garden for years. Now it applies for Denver at US Airways center, where they have'nt won since April, 2004. Phoenix looks to extend their dominance against Denver at the wild wild west coming in with a fiery 4-0 ATS and SU in the last 4 games. The Nuggets on the other hand, has a 2-5 ATS in their last 7 overall. This game gets my 100% confidence and I see Phoenix extending their dominance at home for another 2 years or so. Plus the Suns are keeping their playoff hopes alive and looks to solidify their cause with a crushing win over the erratic-on-the-road Denver. The only way Phoenix loses is when bad luck really strikes and ends the five year home dominance(which means I am one damn unlucky gambler for hitting that one).


    PHI @ POR -> POR -8

    Ok Sacramento blew New York out of the water at home, then they got blown out by Philadelphia at their home. Now Philadelphia is looking to avoid the deadly chain loss by going to the dreaded Rose Garden. Philadelphia is coming of a b2b(0-5 ATS) so expect Portland to run with these boys all night long. Revenge is also in play here with Portland looking to avenge a humiliating 21 point loss. Portland is also on a scorching streak, going 4-0 ATS in the last 4 while Philadelphia is 5-12 ATS in the last 17. I see Portland winning by at least 10.


    ORL @ NYK -> NYK+6

    Ok everyone's probably going to blow my ass off on this play, but I'll stand my ground on this one. Revenge factor, 2 horrible home games, a closely fought match @ ORL, David Lee's likely return, a relatively fishy line(expected the line to go +9 or something). It all falls into place. Good Luck.... to me on this really risky play
    Comment
    • NBA Hero
      SBR MVP
      • 12-05-08
      • 1886

      #37
      yup dex,

      i remember you backing out of your totals on phoe games cause of injured players.

      GL
      Comment
      • Dexter
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 12-24-08
        • 25829

        #38
        Originally posted by NBA Hero
        yup dex,

        i remember you backing out of your totals on phoe games cause of injured players.

        GL
        yeah, several larger bets - most recently the pistons over the clips. no more...
        Comment
        • peterpan19
          Restricted User
          • 11-02-08
          • 3377

          #39
          ok boc -15.5, well its still the clips...

          chi -6... a bit higher than I thought, but still ok
          Comment
          • shoebox
            Restricted User
            • 11-26-08
            • 5710

            #40
            2 plays booked

            under port/phili 191 X5(this ones goin way way way way under)!!!
            port -8 X2

            going heavy on these two plays only

            GL
            Comment
            • MrMonkey
              SBR MVP
              • 11-09-08
              • 2278

              #41
              Does anybody ever take into account who the refs are for games? Sixers have lost 8 straight SU and ATS over last couple years in S. Javie games. Port. has covered 5 or 6 straight times whens he's refing.

              Javie and Mike Mathis (is he retired?) always seemed like guys who had to be the boss. Maybe Barkley worked them over so much they still hate Philly? If this makes no sense someone please respond to this so I know never to waste time looking at this angle again!

              MrMonkey
              Comment
              • RoagBettor
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 01-20-09
                • 8355

                #42
                Refs influencing NBA games? No way!
                Comment
                • repski
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-01-09
                  • 1929

                  #43
                  Originally posted by Dexter
                  yeah, several larger bets - most recently the pistons over the clips. no more...
                  Dexter,

                  I noticed the Clips are like within one or two losses from the worst road record...I noticed that is a DQ in the JM system....
                  Comment
                  • MrMonkey
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-09-08
                    • 2278

                    #44
                    Originally posted by RoagBettor
                    Refs influencing NBA games? No way!
                    I agree thanks, wasn't thinking of ref purposely wanting a team to lose as much as just tendency or trend of that team not covering with Javie.

                    MrMonkey
                    Comment
                    • Dexter
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 12-24-08
                      • 25829

                      #45
                      Originally posted by repski
                      Dexter,

                      I noticed the Clips are like within one or two losses from the worst road record...I noticed that is a DQ in the JM system....
                      really? where do you see that info?
                      Comment
                      • RoagBettor
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 01-20-09
                        • 8355

                        #46
                        Javie is a prick. He's had a lot of run-ins with players, coaches, etc. That's not to say he isn't a good ref, but we're all human. We've all seen calls (and non-calls) made during games (especially at the end) that leave you shaking your head.
                        Comment
                        • Dexter
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 12-24-08
                          • 25829

                          #47
                          booked-

                          bulls -7
                          celts -15.5 (big)
                          suns -3.5
                          blazers -8
                          Comment
                          • Karayilan9
                            Restricted User
                            • 01-10-09
                            • 3742

                            #48
                            Boston 1st QTR -3.5 just opened under +100, I got a feeling the odds are gonna drop and the lines gonna inflate, snapping that up while I can.
                            Comment
                            • peterpan19
                              Restricted User
                              • 11-02-08
                              • 3377

                              #49
                              booked plays (dropped bos 1st qtr, as my book has -4.5 right now..):
                              Chi -7
                              Chi -2 1st qtr
                              Mem +10
                              mem +3 1st qtr
                              Mem/mia Under 49 1st qtr
                              orl -1.5 1st qtr

                              teaser: ATL -5, Mia -2.5, Por -1, Chi -0.5

                              GL
                              Comment
                              • suckatmyjob
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 02-12-09
                                • 785

                                #50
                                we have till about April 15 till end of regular season so how serious would some of the teams that is making the playoffs still be playing - I know placement is important but when should I start factoring in that playoffs is really near and these teams maybe starting to bench their players
                                Comment
                                • Karayilan9
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 01-10-09
                                  • 3742

                                  #51
                                  Orlando 1st QTR

                                  Orlando have not lost 4 of their last 5 1st QTR's away, NY are the complete opposite loosing 4 of their last 5. Orlando are the 4th best 1st QTR team in the NBA winning 64% of them so far. Knicks are in the bottom third of the NBA 1st QTR rankings winning 43% of theirs. NY are on a 4 game loosing streak, can't make the playoffs and Magic are playing hott stuff right now aiming for that 2nd spot in the East.

                                  Last time these two played a month ago, Orlando beat them by 10 in the 1st.

                                  They have an edge here, let's hope they come to play.
                                  Comment
                                  • repski
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-01-09
                                    • 1929

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by Dexter
                                    really? where do you see that info?



                                    from the JM pdf...."The only exception is to never bet on a team that is either the best or worst on the road. If your team has the worst road record in the league then you should pass on that series due to the higher risks involved"

                                    now the LAC don't have the worst, but DAMN close....

                                    SAC 5-31
                                    Wash 5-31
                                    MEM 5-28
                                    OKC 6-28
                                    LAC 7-27
                                    Comment
                                    • whatisit
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 01-25-09
                                      • 319

                                      #53
                                      Originally posted by Karayilan9
                                      Boston 1st QTR -3.5 just opened under +100, I got a feeling the odds are gonna drop and the lines gonna inflate, snapping that up while I can.

                                      My book has Bos -5...do you have any numbers showing win %'s when 1st qtr lines are around this amount?
                                      Comment
                                      • The_Kid
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 02-09-08
                                        • 5049

                                        #54
                                        Originally posted by shoebox
                                        2 plays booked

                                        under port/phili 191 X5(this ones goin way way way way under)!!!
                                        shoe, glad to see you on the UNDER. Let's cash this sucker!
                                        Comment
                                        • peterpan19
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 11-02-08
                                          • 3377

                                          #55
                                          Originally posted by Karayilan9
                                          Last time these two played a month ago, Orlando beat them by 10 in the 1st.

                                          They have an edge here, let's hope they come to play.
                                          they just played each other a few days ago...1st qtr ended in a tie, if i remember correctly...
                                          Comment
                                          • Dexter
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 12-24-08
                                            • 25829

                                            #56
                                            Originally posted by repski
                                            http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/standings

                                            from the JM pdf...."The only exception is to never bet on a team that is either the best or worst on the road. If your team has the worst road record in the league then you should pass on that series due to the higher risks involved"

                                            now the LAC don't have the worst, but DAMN close....

                                            SAC 5-31
                                            Wash 5-31
                                            MEM 5-28
                                            OKC 6-28
                                            LAC 7-27
                                            right, close but they still would have fit the criteria to be an A play.
                                            Comment
                                            • The_Kid
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 02-09-08
                                              • 5049

                                              #57
                                              Did the total really jump about 3.5 points already in the Magic/Knicks game for today?
                                              Comment
                                              • africanroller
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 11-30-08
                                                • 936

                                                #58
                                                Been pretty quiet lately as the egos fly . Have been hitting well over the last couple weeks so I will take Boston -15.5 and Orlando -6. BOL all
                                                Comment
                                                • peterpan19
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 11-02-08
                                                  • 3377

                                                  #59
                                                  the_kid
                                                  yes it did
                                                  Comment
                                                  • The_Kid
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 02-09-08
                                                    • 5049

                                                    #60
                                                    Originally posted by peterpan19
                                                    the_kid
                                                    yes it did
                                                    I was thinking about playing the OVER but I'm not so sure now. It probably will go OVER but it could also end up at 215 and that's when I'll know that I should have stayed away. I'll probably just stick to my Orlando 1Q for that game.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Karayilan9
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 01-10-09
                                                      • 3742

                                                      #61
                                                      Peterpan19
                                                      they just played each other a few days ago...1st qtr ended in a tie, if i remember correctly...
                                                      Yeah your right, they played in Orlando, Magic won by 1 point, NY is one of those that has performed better away in 1st QTR#s than at home recently.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • shoebox
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 11-26-08
                                                        • 5710

                                                        #62
                                                        Originally posted by The_Kid
                                                        shoe, glad to see you on the UNDER. Let's cash this sucker!
                                                        nice kid, glad to see you on the same side, let's get it
                                                        Comment
                                                        • repski
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 02-01-09
                                                          • 1929

                                                          #63
                                                          Wichita St / Stanford Over 135

                                                          STANFORD has gone over in 6 of their last 7 games. And the OU margins haven't even been close.
                                                          The Average combined point totals during that stretch are 151.0 PPG.
                                                          When installed as an UNDERDOG over the last 2 years Stanford has gone 24-5 Over.

                                                          WSU has gone over in 7 of their last 9 overall
                                                          WSU has gone over in 5 of their last 6 home games.
                                                          Shockers are 5-1 O/U in their last 6 FAVORITE roles... and 5-1 O/U vs non-conference competition.

                                                          In last year's CBI Tournament, 2ND ROUND games averaged 148.8 PPG... and went 3-1 O/U in the process.
                                                          In this season's 1ST ROUND, #1 SEEDS (like STANFORD) went 3-1 O/U as well.

                                                          Both teams had high-scoring results in their first game
                                                          Stanford's OU Line in their game versus Boise State was 149... and the game ended up going OVER by 23
                                                          Wichita State's OU line in their game versus Buffalo was 123.5... and the game ended up going OVER by 33.5
                                                          Comment
                                                          • BillAccpetor
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 02-07-09
                                                            • 790

                                                            #64
                                                            Yesterday was a typical "cappers" day, the public was winning.

                                                            Today it is time for the bookies to collect their money back, I assume that the dog´s spreads will hit more...
                                                            Comment
                                                            • repski
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 02-01-09
                                                              • 1929

                                                              #65
                                                              also booked

                                                              Bradley -3
                                                              Creighton-2
                                                              over Creighton/Kentucky
                                                              Liberty-3
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Odraca
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 01-09-09
                                                                • 265

                                                                #66
                                                                plays for today

                                                                portland -8
                                                                under 190

                                                                tailing some others but not gonna keep those recorded
                                                                Comment
                                                                • The_Kid
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 02-09-08
                                                                  • 5049

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Why is the line for the Bulls/Wizards at 210? The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings and in the last meeting, the total was set at 208 and teams totaled 203. The Bulls/Wizards have also played UNDER the total in 4 of the last 5 meetings in the nation's capital. I'm thinking the OVER has to be the play. The Wizards play no defense and Chicago is not that great on the road. Anyone else liking the OVER 210 for this game?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • tommyminh
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 03-19-09
                                                                    • 208

                                                                    #68
                                                                    i agree with u for the over of that game the kid's
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • cocknocker
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 11-06-08
                                                                      • 8001

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Memphis is 8-2 ats in teir last 10 road games, and 3-0 straight up against the Heat in their last 3 contests. With the Heat playing their first home game after a 4 game road trip and a battle at Detroit yesterday, they get no time for recovery and face the fresh Grizzlies, who were last seen getting blown the f*ck out against the Celtics. They have a had a few days to work on things and will head out on the road to play the Heat. I am watng on this one and will more than lkely make my move later on today.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • hockeytown71
                                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                                        • 02-21-09
                                                                        • 95

                                                                        #70
                                                                        NHL :

                                                                        Carolina/Florida Under 5.5

                                                                        Good Luck Tonight!!!
                                                                        Comment
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