Leans for Tuesday 3/17/09

**shoebox** · 03-16-09, 10:23 PM

I think captain Jack may be sitting cause of the technicals

**King_Bookie** · 03-16-09, 10:25 PM

Chi +2 only? This reeks of trap. I'll update my posts here after I read the games tomorrow. Went 2-1 today so small win for me, better than the crap last week.

**Dexter** · 03-16-09, 10:31 PM

Tue 3/17-

the cavs have settled back in after their expected rough first home game after the west coast trip. now they face an orlando team which beat them by 11 at orl earlier in the year. payback time. projected line of -5.

-cavs
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while this is the jazz's first home game off a 5 game east coast trip - it was a poor trip in which they went 2-3 su, and have dropped the last 3. factor in revenge, as the wizards beat the jazz su in wash back in nov, and this has all the makings of a salt lake hammer job. projected line of -14.5

-jazz (pending deron williams)
__________________

**Dexter** · 03-16-09, 10:32 PM

Originally posted by King_Bookie

Chi +2 only? This reeks of trap. I'll update my posts here after I read the games tomorrow. Went 2-1 today so small win for me, better than the crap last week.

yeah, i was super close to adding the bulls. but the celts need to get back on track, and perhaps rondo is healthier. no play for me.

**cocknocker** · 03-16-09, 10:40 PM

It may be time for Cleveland to break the hex that Orlando has over them. They are 1-8 ats against the Magic in the last 9 games overall. That kind of thing kept me off of the Cavs for this game, but it may actually be the thing that makes them play harder than ever against the Magic....Cleveland wants to win the home court advantage throughout the playoffs, and Orlando is a huge stepping stone for them to pull it off...

**isiah121** · 03-16-09, 10:44 PM

CK, what you think of Kings +12.5? They have revenge on their mind, and the Hawks just blew out the other Trailblazers in the previous game.

**Dexter** · 03-16-09, 10:49 PM

isiah - bad teams like the kings are playing "revenge" almost every game..lol

look for revenge when the good teams lose...

**pho3nix32** · 03-16-09, 10:55 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

isiah - bad teams like the kings are playing "revenge" almost every game..lol

look for revenge when the good teams lose...

**cocknocker** · 03-16-09, 10:57 PM

Interesting that you brought that up because the Kings have lost their last 3 games by a total of only 6 points and they are hot ats right now. The Hawks are 5-0 ats right now playing against much more superior competition, Detroit, New Orleans, Utah, Indiana and Portland. The Kings are 4-1 ats on the road on their streak, 5-2 ats overall in their last 7, and 5-2 ats in their last 7 games against the Kings. You have to go all the way back to 1997 to find a game where the Kings have been such a big underdog to the Hawks. The Hawks are 3-3 ats and 9-1 straight up against double digit numbers in their last 6. The smart play is the Atlanta moneyline and the Kings and the points if that makes any sense....if I see ANY reverse movement on this game, I will be taking the Kings against the inflated number that the Hawks ahve been assigned.

**pho3nix32** · 03-16-09, 10:58 PM

how are you doing this week dex?

**cocknocker** · 03-16-09, 10:58 PM

In other words, the Kings are a soild play...

**Dexter** · 03-16-09, 11:01 PM

Originally posted by pho3nix32

how are you doing this week dex?

the week just started for me...1-0

**cocknocker** · 03-16-09, 11:03 PM

It will be 1-1 Dexter if you intend to go against the JM play as you are stating that you will be doing. First home game after a long road trip against a seemingly "inferior" team....

**pho3nix32** · 03-16-09, 11:11 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

the week just started for me...1-0

sorry i meant last week...it seems that the mafia have been doing well lately. ck, you, repski, kid. keep it up!

**pho3nix32** · 03-16-09, 11:18 PM

line: dp@dm 188.5
pick: 188.5 under

Under trends:

- The under for Detroit is 15-7 as underdogs this season.
- The under for Detroit is 19-5 coming from a west game this season.
- The under for Detroit is 16-9 against the west this season.
- The under for Detroit is 10-1 on home loss revenge games this season.
- The under for Dallas is 11-6 after allowing a scorefest in their previous game this season.
- Head to head, the under is 4-1 for meetings in the last 3 seasons.
- Head to head, the under is 2-0 for meetings in Dallas in the last 3 seasons.

Must win game for Dallas. Pistons are still the Pistons. Defensive intensity will go up another level in the game.

**King_Bookie** · 03-16-09, 11:35 PM

2-1 this week

Well we have so many good games tomorrow and taking a quick look at them, these will be my (tentative) picks:

SAC @ ATL -> SAC +12

Ok, the kings have been losing alright. But look at the numbers, the past meetings between them have been decided by less than 10 points when ATL wins (except for the lone 20+ win) and more than 10 if SAC wins (save for the one in 2005, so its irellevant lol). Atlanta has been crushing teams at home in this 6 home game run and people are expecting them to blow sac out of the water(20+ points or more) but take a look at the Kings numbers. They had a great game against Cleveland(despite letting them catch the fsck up). Bibby's performance when facing his former team is also questionable so I'm leaning heavil on Sacramento with this huge ass +12.

ORL @ CLE -> ORL +6

Cleveland has been merciless at home, losing only to the lakers and winning most of them decisively. But I noticed that they are not the Gods that they are portrayed at home as I've seen with their game against NY. Orlando has Lebron's number on speed dial, holding him for 17 and 23 points (bad day compared to lebron's everyday output) in the last 2 meetings. I also like the matchups in this game. Howard should murder that slow moving Ilgauskas(that guy moves like Vlade Divac) and Skip to my Lou is about even matched with Mo Williams. Lebron should have a field day against Courtney Lee but I don't think the magic will leave him in 1on1 situations. I'm leaning orlando at the moment.

BOS @ CHI -> CHI +2 (TRAP ALERT!)

Now my pick may be Chicago but I'm really torn on these two. Boston has been on a losing slump so they'll probably pick up the pace and win this one. On the other hand, these types of matchups is basically a pickem and Books won't give Chicago such a low spread if they didnt knew anything about the game. This is as fishy as it could get. And this game could turn very ugly.

DET @ DAL -> DET +6

Dallas may be a horrible team on the road but they become contenders when playing at home. With the lone exception of the OKC @ DAL game(went to OT, where they almost lost), they have been performing well at home and had some success at road. However, this team is plagued by injuries (4, to be exact including Josh Howard and Devean George) and Detroit can see this as a loophole to defeat Dallas in their home turf. I might have picked Detroit if not for the massacre they recieved from Memphis.

MIN @ SA -> PASS (leaning Minnesota +12)

San Antonio played crap in the recent OKC game where they got manhandled by team effort led by the resurging Kevin Durant and potential rookie of the year Russel Westbrook. Minnesota found its funk before leaving for the road, winning against the heavily touted bobcats. Carney, Love and Gomes scored 20+ points and at one point led by more than 10 in the game. As they say, "love" will fight all the odds.

WAS @ UTA -> PENDING

If Deron and Okur miss this game, I'll bet half my bankroll on WAS winning SU (like I did in ATL against POR). Otherwise this is a toss up.

**cocknocker** · 03-16-09, 11:37 PM

Utah backers beware. Deron Williams and Mehmet Okur will in all likelihood miss this game with a bruised leg and and ankle injury respectively. With Washington Butler will be out. So the injuries will even things up. If there was ever a game that either of them can afford to miss this is it.

**corona** · 03-17-09, 12:19 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Utah backers beware. Deron Williams and Mehmet Okur will in all likelihood miss this game with a bruised leg and and ankle injury respectively. With Washington Butler will be out. So the injuries will even things up. If there was ever a game that either of them can afford to miss this is it.

williams played a good portion of minutes in the second half of that orlando game where he got injured. why sit out now? i doubt a knee on leg bruise got him that bad. he's a tough guy and super competitive. i'm positive he'll play tuesday.

**danrman** · 03-17-09, 12:59 AM

people think the celtics will be looking ahead to the home contest w/ miami for the revenge of the loss to miami last week... normally the line would be 7 but the loss to milwaukee, no garnett and no rondo brings the line down as people know chicago has been playing well... it looks like a trap w/ the line 2 but its the linemaker playing head games.. i lean to the boston celtics but 80% of the public is on them and i dont like this and if it stays this way i wont bet it...

i live in dallas and this is the mavs 1st game back from a road trip before they go on another 2 gm road trip.. they are playing a gritty detroit team looking for revenge from an embarassing loss to the mavs in d-town... the line looks low at 5 1/2 but i wouldnt trust the mavs in this spot as far as i could throw them... if rasheed plays i will play detroit.. possibly even if he doesnt... i think dallas loses this straight up and then also loses in atlanta.. thats the way dallas is... play good on the road w/ suprising wins and even a decent game against the lakers albeit a loss... then when they've sucked you in, they lose and underperform.. thats simply the way this team is.. do you really think they are going to continue winning into the playoffs... NOT A CHANCE!!!!... ITS THE MAVS!!!

i'll have a strong pick for sure between 5:30 and 6 if you need my tail

**The_Kid** · 03-17-09, 01:15 AM

Originally posted by corona

williams played a good portion of minutes in the second half of that orlando game where he got injured. why sit out now? i doubt a knee on leg bruise got him that bad. he's a tough guy and super competitive. i'm positive he'll play tuesday.

corona, the Jazz are playing the Wizards and like CK mentioned, this is probably the one game they will miss if they have to. The Jazz are still fighting for positioning in the playoffs but they'll probably be cautious with both these guys.

Here is what I dug up from Rotoworld:

Deron Williams and Mehmet Okur have both been called game-time decisions by the Jazz for Tuesday's game against the Wizards. Williams has a "contusion of the left fibula head area" just below his left knee, suffered in a collision with Dwight Howard Sunday. Okur has a "mild inversion sprain" of his right ankle, an injury stemming from Saturday's loss to the Heat.

An MRI on Caron Butler's hamstring injury didn't reveal any new information, but he decided to travel with the team on a four-game road trip. Butler's now officially listed as day-to-day, but there's still no word on when he might play again. Butler has tightness in the hamstring and fluid has built up in the area, causing him problems.

**pho3nix32** · 03-17-09, 01:21 AM

Originally posted by The_Kid

corona, the Jazz are playing the Wizards and like CK mentioned, this is probably the one game they will miss if they have to. The Jazz are still fighting for positioning in the playoffs but they'll probably be cautious with both these guys.

Here is what I dug up from Rotoworld:

Deron Williams and Mehmet Okur have both been called game-time decisions by the Jazz for Tuesday's game against the Wizards. Williams has a "contusion of the left fibula head area" just below his left knee, suffered in a collision with Dwight Howard Sunday. Okur has a "mild inversion sprain" of his right ankle, an injury stemming from Saturday's loss to the Heat.

An MRI on Caron Butler's hamstring injury didn't reveal any new information, but he decided to travel with the team on a four-game road trip. Butler's now officially listed as day-to-day, but there's still no word on when he might play again. Butler has tightness in the hamstring and fluid has built up in the area, causing him problems.

overpaid superstars...i wish i could be them

**BebeRebozo** · 03-17-09, 01:26 AM

Sacramento Kings +12
Dallas Mavericks -5,5
Los Angeles Lakers -10
Cleveland Cavaliers ML
San Antonio Spurs ML

**csimmalavong** · 03-17-09, 01:26 AM

warriors -11.5 projected ?

seems way too high imo, i actually think clips can win the game outright lol
but i havent fully reviewed the game..

**The_Kid** · 03-17-09, 01:26 AM

Originally posted by pho3nix32

overpaid superstars...i wish i could be them

Put yourself in Stephon Marbury's shoes. Even though he wasn't happy with not playing, I'm sure his paycheck made him feel a lot better. That dude collected so much $ just sitting on the bench!

Gilbert Arenas hasn't played one single game this year after signing that huge contract. The list could go on and on. These guys have it way too easy and most don't realize it.

**pho3nix32** · 03-17-09, 01:29 AM

Originally posted by The_Kid

Put yourself in Stephon Marbury's shoes. Even though he wasn't happy with not playing, I'm sure his paycheck made him feel a lot better. That dude collected so much $ just sitting on the bench!

Gilbert Arenas hasn't played one single game this year after signing that huge contract. The list could go on and on. These guys have it way too easy and most don't realize it.

in arenas case though, he built his way to fame and fortune starting from nothing. he was not even drafted. i could say he earned his paycheck

**The_Kid** · 03-17-09, 01:32 AM

The OVER between the Lakers and the 76ers is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Average totals in that span have been set around 199 points while the average scores have totaled about 208 points. The lines makers have adjusted the total of 201 to 203 compared to the previous meeting in Philly earlier this year. They know both these teams will put up points. The 76ers want to play fast and the Lakers are the most potent offense in the league. Playing the OVER 203.

Originally posted by pho3nix32

in arenas case though, he built his way to fame and fortune starting from nothing. he was not even drafted. i could say he earned his paycheck

He was drafted in the 2nd round but you are right. He did want to show up the teams that passed him on draft day. I don't know if he deserved that much money because he has been injured more often over the years.

**cocknocker** · 03-17-09, 01:34 AM

Originally posted by csimmalavong

warriors -11.5 projected ?

seems way too high imo, i actually think clips can win the game outright lol
but i havent fully reviewed the game..

Why? The last time these two teams played in Oakland the line was Warriors-11, and they covered. Translated, the line for this game will be around the same since the Warriors surpassed the -11 line. BTW the Clips are the wrong call on this game. I wish you well...

**pho3nix32** · 03-17-09, 01:37 AM

Originally posted by The_Kid

The OVER between the Lakers and the 76ers is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Average totals in that span have been set around 199 points while the average scores have totaled about 208 points. The lines makers have adjusted the total of 201 to 203 compared to the previous meeting in Philly earlier this year. They know both these teams will put up points. The 76ers want to play fast and the Lakers are the most potent offense in the league. Playing the OVER 203.

He was drafted in the 2nd round but you are right. He did want to show up the teams that passed him on draft day. I don't know if he deserved that much money because he has been injured more often over the years.

the over looks good Kid, nice job on the okc under yesterday

thank you for the correction....these newly paid superstars suddenly get injured and out for the season...arenas, deng, amare, ellis etc etc...

**cocknocker** · 03-17-09, 01:41 AM

Luol Deng is a bust. Greg Oden is in another class all to himself though....

**The_Kid** · 03-17-09, 01:43 AM

Originally posted by pho3nix32

these newly paid superstars suddenly get injured and out for the season...arenas, deng, amare, ellis etc etc...

Yeah, it's funny that injuries occur after the big payday.

Originally posted by cocknocker

Luol Deng is a bust. Greg Oden is in another class all to himself though....

I was always on the Durant bandwagon. Still thought Portland should have drafted him despite Greg Oden's size and this and that. He has no offensive skills and his body is already breaking down. Definitely sucks for Portland fans thinking that he'd be the finishing piece to their puzzle.

**The_Kid** · 03-17-09, 01:47 AM

Anyone playing the NIT games tomorrow? At first glance, I like St. Mary's to put on a good showing at home vs the Cougars. Patty Mills should have a Happy St. Patty's Day!

Originally posted by pho3nix32

line: dp@dm 188.5
pick: 188.5 under

This total looks pretty good too. Last meeting, both teams combined for 203 points and yet the total was only adjusted by a bucket. Reminds me of the Spurs/Thunder total today.

**cocknocker** · 03-17-09, 01:51 AM

I'm taking Rhode Island+4.5 and the moneyline as well as Niagra are money burners and I have been waiting for the righ topportunity to fade them. This is it. Rhode Island has a much more superior team than them and Niagra is a false favorite.

**pho3nix32** · 03-17-09, 01:51 AM

Originally posted by The_Kid

I was always on the Durant bandwagon. Still thought Portland should have drafted him despite Greg Oden's size and this and that. He has no offensive skills and his body is already breaking down. Definitely sucks for Portland fans thinking that he'd be the finishing piece to their puzzle.

sam bowie over his airness all over again

**danrman** · 03-17-09, 01:53 AM

Originally posted by csimmalavong

warriors -11.5 projected ?

seems way too high imo, i actually think clips can win the game outright lol
but i havent fully reviewed the game..

of course it seems high.. you think they will give you a cupcake line cover over the clippers... they wont to discourage you and thats when the clips will get blown out... zack randolph coming back and playing for the clips and stephen jackson not playing for gs makes it a no play for me...