Leans for Tuesday 3/17/09

[The_Kid]

sam bowie over his airness all over again

Haha you're definitely right on that one.

I'm taking Rhode Island+4.5 and the moneyline as well as Niagra are money burners and I have been waiting for the righ topportunity to fade them. This is it. Rhode Island has a much more superior team than them and Niagra is a false favorite.

CK, might have to tail you on that one. Haven't really paid much attention to Rhode Island or Niagra but we'll see.

[danrman]

CK, what you think of Kings +12.5? They have revenge on their mind, and the Hawks just blew out the other Trailblazers in the previous game.

i think sac could be a great play cause atl has a tough road division game against charlotte and conference road game at mecca.. could catch atlanta wanting to get home to pack a little too early.. atl wins by 7 or 8

[SlowRoll]

Originally Posted by The_Kid
The OVER between the Lakers and the 76ers is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Average totals in that span have been set around 199 points while the average scores have totaled about 208 points. The lines makers have adjusted the total of 201 to 203 compared to the previous meeting in Philly earlier this year. They know both these teams will put up points. The 76ers want to play fast and the Lakers are the most potent offense in the league. Playing the OVER 203.



He was drafted in the 2nd round but you are right. He did want to show up the teams that passed him on draft day. I don't know if he deserved that much money because he has been injured more often over the years.
the over looks good Kid, nice job on the okc under yesterday thank you for the correction....these newly paid superstars suddenly get injured and out for the season...arenas, deng, amare, ellis etc etc...

76ers at LAL

PICK: OVER

The last 4 consecutive series have went OVER and the write up that The_Kid gave is reason enough for me to click submit on this pick. Tailing you on this 1. Lets get er' done.

[showtime2000]

Leans in NHL that i'm looking at for tonight. I'll make the final call before gametime as i like to look at the movement throughout the day.

Florida -106 (catching Washington on a b2b and in a 4/6 situation were Washington does not fair well)
Florida/Washington over 6 (goals against have been coming in bunches against these 2 teams rectenly)
Buffalo +110 (triple revenge game here for Buffalo against Ottawa)

[wangichu]

Really liking Detroit. They've still been decent in the revenge game and for whatever reason, playing up to or down to the competition. Last time they played Dallas, they faced the fury of a team that got railed by about 40 two days prior. They've actually been better on the road and play better situationally when the books give them points. They've played dallas to at least a split over the last 5 years, winning two of those in Dallas. It seems that as of late the right time to take them is when you just think it's a bad idea and this is one of those times. RLM with only 22% on them early indicates that I may be on to something.

DET +6/ML

outside of that i am betting that I will be witness tomorrow as LeBron conjurs something against a magic team that is miles more vulnerable than they were earlier this season, and with jameer not raefer. There's definitely some magic missing in orlando. Still a very solid club but not quite ridiculously dominant like they were earlier, when they blew everyone out. ORL has won 3 straight. Cleveland has failed to cover the last two games and i really think their fate is set to change here. Gonna watch this line closely but early money on orlando and no movement is resting my nerves.

CLE -6 (lean)

As hot as the hawks have been i kinda think that sacto might rattle them in a let down game. I think that this spread is a little bit large all things considered, but as i'm typing this, i'm realizing that i should be preying on the hawks home weakness... they can be caught off guard in the first half and often wait until the second half to turn it on (ie last home game against the cavs) ... so early lean on

SAC +6 1st half (would not be surprised to see them take the lead into the half either only to blow it)

[ger25pic25]

What's going on with the line movement?? Is this a mistake?
source:SportsInsights

3/17/2009 1:39:34 AM Boston Celtics 195.5u-110 (-103) -2-110 -2+102 82 0 79 73
3/17/2009 1:38:47 AM Boston Celtics 195.5u-110 (-103) -2-110 -2-10,000 80 0 79 73
3/17/2009 1:08:26 AM Boston Celtics 195.5u-110 (-103) -2-110 -2-101 80 0 77 73

[peterpan19]

plays for today:
ORL +6
Let me start with .... Orl owns Cle as they are 4-1 ATS in Cle and also won early in the year at home against Cle by 11, plus ORL is 8-2 ATS no matter what the venue is... plus this is also an important game for Orl as they are only 4 GB Bos right now and they play 1 more game against bos and 2 more against Cle, so we all know and they know they have a chance for that probably important no.1 seed, plus you just have to love orl this year as a road dog where they are 8-3 SU (including wins in Bos, Por, Uta, ATL, SA, LAk) and 9-2 ATS... give mt the points in that game

Dal -5
Dallas come home after a long road for just a short 1 game series before they go on the road to face the red hot Hawks on national TV on Thursday night ... but I just cant trust Det in that one, I mean if Wallace is out than Dallas will be a play for sure and even if he plays, I will go with Dallas not as heavy as w/o him, but still a play for me... I dont care if Howard is out (they are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS w/o him), they will get the job done ... cause Dallas is hot at home as of late and I just think that the trend will continue today, also dont forget they beat Det on the road already (granted Det was a mess at that time, but are they really that much better right now ?)

Sac +12
4-1 ATS road record as of late, played some close games against Was, Okc, Den and Cle lately... only lost by 5 early in the season, but that was at home... ATL might look ahead here as they have this game already as a win in their books and play Dalas and Cleveland next ...

Bos -2 ... trap game of the day... Bulls are hot at home ... but Bos covered in 7 straight games now agains the Bulls ... but Boston really needs a win here and now as they are only 5-5 in their last 10 games ... and already 3.5 GB behind Cle for the no.1 seed and maybe even in danger of loosing the no.2 seed pretty soon... their sloppy play just cant continue and they will win this game ... even if the public is all over Boston here, but thats one of the games were the public will be right...

GS -10 (or less is a play for me)
Clippers just dont have the offense to keep up with the Warriors here today, plus GS is 5-1 ATS and SU against LA at home... hoping for a low line here as Jackson is out with a suspension for this game

plays:
Orl +6
Dal -5

considering:
Sac +12
Bos -2

playing if the line is right:
GS -10 or less

I will take a look at potential 1st qtr plays next

edit: looks like I am almost alone on Dallas and Orlando today

[Bobby518]

Good Luck to All Today!!

[Dexter]

sorry i meant last week...it seems that the mafia have been doing well lately. ck, you, repski, kid. keep it up!

good - my big plays are 8-4 since last monday. regular nba plays have been a few games over 500 as well i think.

[Dexter]

Wed 3/18-

just going to play two games of simply fading poor teams on back to back.

the kings will be on btb from atlanta to charl - the bobcats are fighting for their playoff lives, and should hold the kings to 80-85 points in this spot. projected line of -10.

-bobcats
_____________
the wolves will also be on a btb from texas to new orleans - the hornets have dropped 2 tough games vs the rockets and bulls. a matchup with the wolves should get them back on track, as the hornets will have settled back in after the recent road trip. projected line of -11.5

-hornets
_____________

[Dexter]

CK - any inside info on team 522 on the rotation?

[Jshap1515]

Put yourself in Stephon Marbury's shoes. Even though he wasn't happy with not playing, I'm sure his paycheck made him feel a lot better. That dude collected so much $ just sitting on the bench!

Marbury didnt even have to sit on the bench.

[cocknocker]

Naw, none, Dex. But with 46% and still controlling the line, I'd say that you have a cherry right there.

[King_Bookie]

Some so-called "expert cappers" are saying that I should go for Boston and Lakers, however, my gut feeling is relying heavily on Chicago whipping their ass and Philadelphia burning the 4th quarter for a cover. What do you guys think?

[RoagBettor]

3 team/8 pt teaser LEAN only so far:

WASHINGTON +23
PHILLY +18
RHODE ISLAND +12

[Dexter]

gs line is out, and -1.5

[King_Bookie]

-1.5.... damn low. I think I might go down heavy on that one.

[RoagBettor]

I like the over 225 GS/LAC. What do you guys think?

[Gnutti]

Warriors coach Don Nelson intends to bench Jamal Crawford on both Tuesday and Thursday this week, despite the absence of Stephen Jackson (suspended) on Tuesday

[peeiempee]

Kaman is back for clipps. Line is at -1.5 warriors. Still a go for everyone?

[Gnutti]

Zack will be back too

[repski]

NIT....one thing to note about first round NIT games is they are HOME games for the higher seed...

[cocknocker]

Wow! The Warriors are favored over the Clips by 1.5. The Clips are getting too much love for the win over the Nets and for Zach Randolph coming back. The Warriors are playing this game with revenge after getting blown out by the Clips on 2/23/09 by 13 points. Warriors it is!

[FreeMason]

Happy St. Patrick's Day! to all. Hopefully we'll all be getting lucky... in more ways then 1

On the card, I like St. Mary's to beat Washington St., got a hook, took em at -3.5
cheers

[NBA Hero]

nelson likes to change his mind even if report has been out

[NBA Hero]

how come bos is heavy fav even if they have lost 3 0f 4 and on the road, plus against a strong bulls at home. based on player match ups, chi has the advantage with their youthful athletic players against the experienced injury plagued celts. a great chance for the bulls to steal the title " winner to celts on patrick day "

it seems dallas are also heavy fav over det. time for the dirk to coast to a win with maxiel defending on the perimeter at home, while hoping for barea, terry to cover 'the rip'. fast break points will matter on this game

[Dexter]

how come bos is heavy fav

boston is only -1.5

good point about bos on st pattys day

[The_Kid]

After booking the OVER for the 76ers/Lakers game tonight, I realized two things.

1. The Mavs played a zone defense that allowed them to get back in the game.
2. The Lakers struggled to find a rhythm on offense against that zone defense.

So, I'm expecting the 76ers to throw a little zone defense at the Lakers tonight in hopes of slowing them down. The LA Times reports the Lakers worked on it in practice yesterday. Hopefully, their offense won't be slowed down enough where the Lakers are unable to find any rhythm. With that being said though. I think the 76ers at +10 is a solid play. Plus, it's their first out of conference game so I'll be playing it anyway.

76ers at LAL

PICK: OVER

The last 4 consecutive series have went OVER and the write up that The_Kid gave is reason enough for me to click submit on this pick. Tailing you on this 1. Lets get er' done.

Let's get this one, Slow Roll!

[repski]

PSU -6

-Penn State is 15-3 SU @ home and have outscored their opponents by 9 ppg
-Penn State has won 7 of their last 8 @ home and have outscored their opponents by 17 ppg.
-PSU is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss.
-Nitany Lions have averaged 67 ppg on their home floor

-GW is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 6-9 SU overall
-GW has 56.1 ppg in their last 7 games. .

[repski]

boston is only -1.5

good point about bos on st pattys day

If you like that...you gotta love ND tonight @ home

[cocknocker]

No one loves Notre Dame, repski. They are money burners for sure. Almost as bad as Georgetown. Oh yeah, BTW, repski, Citigroup went oer $2.50 a share. When i bought them they were at less than a dollar. Not a bad return on my 6 dimes in a little over a week. I am going into San Francisco today to pick up a check for 9 dimes and I am leaving the original 6 dimes on this stock, as I see it continuing to rise even more. No one on the thread can say that they weren't told of this transaction and it's worthiness. To those who listened, this was another lesson in sound money management. I m going to use this 9 dimes on my baseball prop and play them at $300.00 a pop. My estimate is that I can turn this 9 dimes into 90 dimes this year with the usual 300 wins per year for my baseball system.

Man that was EASY money

[repski]

St.Mary's -4

-St. Mary’s is 6 of its last 7 ATS @ home and 5-1 ATS versus the Pac-10,
-St. Mary's finished the season on a 7-1 SU run
-St Mary's has won 4 in a row ATS as a fav. of less than 6 pts.

-Washinton state lost 9 of its last 15 SU.
-Wash. St. has lost six of its last seven ATS on the road, & is 2-10-1 ATS as a road dog.
-WSU is 2-9 ATS as a dog of less than seven points.

[peterpan19]

king_bookie

well, I am on Bos as I posted earlier

for the Lakers game... well JM play so you know who I am playing and I wont go against them ... but come on the Lakers might blow them out in the first half just to let them back in and get the backdoor cover at the end when the Lakers will rest their players for that prime time game and the playoffs, cause they know they will win this one against the Sixers with easily and I mean if the Sixers do the same the Mavs did, hell they can keep it close to cover even if you dont play the JM one...

and you gotta love that GS is only -2

[cocknocker]

Alright fellers,

My NCAA system is posted in Dexters' NCAA thread post #25.

I will also post my sides on his NCAA thread as well. I won't be able to give much in the way of explanations for my picks as I will be using the laptop, and those are a no-no in the sportsbook. So generally I will post them bright and early in the AM when we are still in the room, or I will text Dexter with them if something comes along that is juicy that I can't convey via the internet.

We will be leaving for Reno Wednesday morning around 4:00am in order to beat the traffic and get settled in before the mad rush of the crowds.

[Dexter]

will you be playing all the games as well, or are you picking spots with the mentioned system?