Leans for Monday 3/9/09 Hoops Upside Your Head

[Tennispro]

Some teams just don't match up good and thats the deal with Magic against Detroit, Detroit is playing a home game after a lose in Atlanta, Detroit is rested Magic played yesterday, Detroit still needs to fight to secure a good play offs seat.
I just see Detroit taking this one if no one is out. GL

[solobass]

Some teams just don't match up good and thats the deal with Magic against Detroit, Detroit is playing a home game after a lose in Atlanta, Detroit is rested Magic played yesterday, Detroit still needs to fight to secure a good play offs seat.
I just see Detroit taking this one if no one is out. GL

yes detroit is fighting for a playoff seat but orlando is only 3 games out of the #1 seed and fighting for that. as far as rest, this is orlando's 4th game this month and detroit's 5th game this month. watching sheed guard dwight howard and not getting a tech should be most amusing in my opinion.

best of luck, one of us has to win this!

[Karayilan9]

I was looking for the 1st QTR with the biggest edge to play tonight and came across another crazy stat.

On first glance, La Lakers would be the 1st QTR play of the day, Lakers and Trailblazers have the biggest 1st QTR Win % difference. La with 61% the 5th best in the League, Portland with 45% find themselves in the bottom 3rd.

However, under closer inspection it becomes clear that all is not how it seems.

La Lakers @ Home over the past 10 1st QTR's = W 7 , L 3 / W 70%

La Lakers Away over the past 10 1st QTR's = W 5 , L 5 / WIN 50%

Its clear Lakers have a home advantage, which is logically to be expected.

However, check this out.

Portland @ Home over the past 10 1st QTR's = W 8 , L 2 / 80%
Portland Away over the past 10 1st QTR's = W 2 , L 8 / 20%

There is a huge home/away difference, Portland has been blazin up the 1st QTR's @ home recently.

Portland have a good record at Home against the Lakers, they have an edge.

It sounds scary to take them in a 1st QTR against the Lakers, so many may skip taking them in this game, however, in their next home 1st QTR's Portland could be a great pick!

[Karayilan9]

Don't like the 1st QTR match-ups today but one more that caught my eye is, New Orleans vs Atlanta Hawks 1st QTR.

New Orleans 1ST QTR Win % = 53%
Atlanta 1ST QTR Win % = 47%

Not enough an edge on the Hornets.

However,

ATL @ Home over last 10 1st QTR games = W 3 , L 7 / 30%
ATL Away over last 10 1st QTR games = W 7 , L 3 / 70%

They are worse @ Home than away in 1st QTR's over their last games.

NO Away over last 10 1st QTR games = W 6 L 4 / 60%

Over the past 10 games, comparing Home and Away we have

ATL HOME = 30% 1ST QTR
NO AWAY = 60% 1ST QTR

New Orleans are also hot right now and have the potential if they play as they have been to Win the game outright tonight.

New Orleans 1st QTR ML @ +100

[Dexter]

i absolutely laid the wood on this play last night and it will be my only play for today.

Orlando PK

i had this sweet writeup then hit the back button on my browser. anyway, orlando has averaged 100 pts in their last 5 road games, detroit averaging 93.6 in their last 5 home games. the magic have revenge on their minds as the pistons have been their stumbling block (and beat them @ home 2/27) for a few years now. when detroit took it to orlando a few weeks ago, van gundy openly questioned his team's toughness, and they responded by ripping off 4 wins SU. dwight howard only played 28 minutes last night, less than his full workload so he can abuse the pistons front line tonight. detroit only wins 52% of their home games, and the magic are a 71% road team. the pistons own the slowest pace of any team in the league and orlando is 5 pts better on offense and defense over the course of the season with the gap shrinking slightly as the more current data is weighted more properly. even with detroit going on their mini run they are only 4-6 in their last 10 SU. just to show you what i do on a daily basis also, the final is going to be 99-90 orlando.

i wish it were not so, as most of you are well aware of my detroit street cred, but hey i gotta put food on the table.

solo - i'm completely hanging my hat on the fact that iverson ruined their team chemistry - hes only been absent the past 5 games, and det is 4-1 - they just have a chemistry about them now, that reminds of detroit the past few years.

[ASH0479]

....

ASH0479 plays for today

Detroit ML
Houston plus the points
Portland +2.5 or ML

Best of luck

[showtime2000]

I'm surprised no one has mention the Washington Wizards? They are 6-0ats versus Minnesota the last 6 meetings. Washington has won three straight over the Timberwolves and six of the last eight meetings.
Aswell, the last 3 games that Minnesota has been favored they have not covered. One last thing, this will be Butler's 2nd game back after injury.

[ASH0479]

....

I think thats because alot of people don't like wagering on games that have two really bad teams, you never know what to expect...playing younger players, bad shooting, inconsistancy, etc

[peterpan19]

I'm surprised no one has mention the Washington Wizards? They are 6-0ats versus Minnesota the last 6 meetings. Washington has won three straight over the Timberwolves and six of the last eight meetings.
Aswell, the last 3 games that Minnesota has been favored they have not covered. One last thing, this will be Butler's 2nd game back after injury.

well true, but they are very bad teams, both of them are, and one of them has to win the game so you better take the team with the points, but anyway ... can you trust either team with your money ??

[hockeytown11]

pucks for tonight

I love the NYR +125

ALSO TAKING TORONTO OVER 6

[peterpan19]

thx hockeytown11

btw how are you doing lately ?
good to see you here again from time to time


GL

[BrandonLaz]

Final Card

New Orleans Hornets -1
Houston Rockets +4
Detroit Pistons ML +110
New Orleans Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks u188
Miami Heat -5

[ASH0479]

....

The public is pounding the Lakers and the line remains....Portland looks like the play

[Dexter]

booked-

hornets -1.5 (big)
pistons +2 (big)
rockets +4 (big)
blazers +2.5 (big)

[suckatmyjob]

Great picks today seems like everyone is on the same thing and big too

Hey Dex are you going to throw a lil on the Detroit and Houston ML?

[Dexter]

no ml plays suck....

[repski]

I'm surprised no one has mention the Washington Wizards? They are 6-0ats versus Minnesota the last 6 meetings. Washington has won three straight over the Timberwolves and six of the last eight meetings.
Aswell, the last 3 games that Minnesota has been favored they have not covered. One last thing, this will be Butler's 2nd game back after injury.

see my earlier post..

[woodyman]

New Orleans 1st QTR ML @ +100

I agree on this and have already played -.5

Never play hornets first half though as when they rest paul in the second they have a shocker. Usually lead after 1 then its nearly even or even at half time.

[jaymac82980]

I'm kinda lazy, and dont feel like reading all the posts, but has anyone mentioned the pistons beating up the magic tonight?

[suckatmyjob]

I'm all over NO -1.5 for all the reasons Ck and Peterpan19 has listed, furthermore it was mention before ATL is not really sports fan town we show no pride in our teams so expect another small turn out. I was all over Atlanta vs Detroit and that one won for us but for this home game I'm going against the Hawks.

I dont think ATL has won 2 straight home games since the end of December so if they won and covered against Detroit this one is bound for a letdown. Secondly, I know I'm letting personal reasons stand in the way of my betting but in 2005 I was really piss the Hawks didnt drafted CP3 and back when CP3 was at WF I loved him and kept talking it up that Atl will be drafing him and ATL really let me down when they drafted Marvin Williams ever since every time CP3 played against ATL I always bet on New Orleans so the trend still stands and so far I've havent been very profitable ATS 4-3 since CP3 arrival 5-2 SU but today I'm feeling it and what the hell got 3 hours to decide if I want to buy some last min tickets to watch the game haha

jaymac - yes everyone in the forum I believe is on Detroit

[Dexter]

dont know about beating up, but i like the pistons tonight jay

[Dexter]

what about the revenge angle for the magic, you are the king of that and this might be like quadruple revenge!

they've had their chance twice (both home and away) to avenge the playoff loss...seems that det just has their number.

[shoebox]

My card so far

Wizzles +5
Bulls +5
NO -1

On a side not these past two weeks I have lost 7 games by a point hear and a point there. Talk about some bad beats, not to mention being backdoored and losing leads late (add 3 more games to that) when im on the opposite side. O well on to today

[shoebox]

I see everyone ranting on the pistons as I will stay the F away from that one. If the magic start raining 3s game over, I dont like betting the magic unless I back them. They can beat you in the paint and def outside.

I see no edge here

[TheLemonDropKid]

Okay boys and girls.....a couple days ago I mentioned a system I used in baseball that was successful a couple of years ago. I was going to try and see if that system could translate over into NBA ATS success.

Well here his the 1st day of my
PICKS:

I will track them at the bottom of all of my posts like some of you do.

ATL + 1.5 WINNER
ORL -2 LOSER
WAS/MIN Over 203 WINNER
LAL/POR Over 202

GL to all you freaks out there....

WAS and POR are also SLIGHT Leans on this system, but I won't be counting those in my tracking.

[JohnMorr08]

You guys are absolutely correct to play opposite of the public 'most of the time'. However, keep in mind that the public doesn't ALWAYS lose. There has been very little line movement in the LAL/Portland game BUT I think Portland is the wrong play here.

**That is simply my opinion....

[Dexter]

3/10 - Tue

the pacers seem to get up for the best teams in the league at conseco, and i wouldnt be surprised to see them end the jazz's win streak in this spot. indy has beaten the celts, lakers, cavs and magic at home. this is a talented offensive team that seems to rise up to the competiton. this is a revenge game as well for the pacers who have won 3 of the last 4 games at home to utah. projected line of +4.5.

-pacers (big)
______________
the suns are back home after a 4 game road trip, and while i would like to play the mavs here, they have just been brutal on the road lately. instead im going to jump back on the suns overs with a favorable schedule here in march with lots of home games over the next few weeks.

-over suns (big)

[BmoreBucco]

You guys are absolutely correct to play opposite of the public 'most of the time'. However, keep in mind that the public doesn't ALWAYS lose. There has been very little line movement in the LAL/Portland game BUT I think Portland is the wrong play here.

**That is simply my opinion....

Yeah, I love the Lakeshow tonight. I'll see how I do on these before I make that play:

Atlanta just doesn't have it right now, and the Hornets do. That's all I got on that one.

New Orleans -1 (-110)

I know the trends and the percieved match-up problems, but I have a very strong feeling that Van Gundy is going to seriously challenge this team before tonight's game. "You wanna be a Champion, act like one." Especially after their last showing against DETROIT BASKETBALL! Add to that, Orlando is just a better team.

Orlando -2 (-110)

Simply put, the fact the Netherlands shocked the Dominican, who were missing A-Fraud and a couple other key offensive pieces, is keeping this line down. Puerto Rico runs away and hides in this one.

Puerto Rico -3.5 (-115)

3-team parlay:
Miami -5
Sienna -3.5
Rangers/Hurricanes under 5.5

[Dexter]

haha - what an idiot i am. i just realized that the bucks were also on their 4th game in 5 nights vs the warriors the other night.

[The_Kid]

Baron Davis (hamstring) and Marcus Camby (migraines) are both day-to-day, according to a Clippers spokesman.

Davis "tweaked" his hamstring, but the Clippers dismal season (combined with a ton of criticism being aimed at him lately) probably led to his taking a game off on Saturday. Camby is taking antibiotics to combat his own ailments, and both players are questionable for Tuesday's game vs. the Cavaliers. Mar. 9 - 11:55 am et
Source: Los Angeles Times

Dang, if Davis and Camby miss tomorrow vs the Cavs, this game will get UGLY really fast!

[alukk]

im thinking in LAL -3 for a huge play, also liking the pistons

[repski]

SIENA
Niagara is coming off an exhausting game against Rider last night, a game which started at 8:30pm EST. The Purple Eagles needed a "30 foot prayer" at the end of regulation to force overtime. Niagara eventually winning in double-overtime. I believe that type of late night victory will make it very tough on the Purple Eagles here. In addition to facing a powerful Siena squad, they also have to play on the Saints' home floor. In fact, the Saints are 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS the last four times they were a host in this series, each of the last three victories coming by double-digits. Including this season's earlier victory, when they were favored by 5.5 points, the Saints are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range.

With that said Sam put his whole wad on this som it will probably go down in flames...

[alukk]

You guys are absolutely correct to play opposite of the public 'most of the time'. However, keep in mind that the public doesn't ALWAYS lose. There has been very little line movement in the LAL/Portland game BUT I think Portland is the wrong play here.

**That is simply my opinion....

same as mine

[cocknocker]

I'm staying far far away from the Lakers/Blazers matchup. Too hard to cap, and i just can't rely solely on line movement..

[bmw530i]

I had alot of fun in the thread yesterday.
Drop it on em Biz Markie style tonight....