Leans for Bump Day 1/14/09

cheesehead004 · 01-14-09, 12:07 AM

I am absolutely loving the Spurs pick and I am with you all the way on this one. Ever since the Magic game, I've been waiting for Wednesday just to bet on San Antonio. I'll post my other picks after the two games I have money on right now are over and I take a look at the spreads.

NYCKEV · 01-14-09, 12:14 AM

Por -1 money in the bank!

SportNut · 01-14-09, 12:18 AM

Love your Spurs and Celtics plays. What do you think about ATL?

cocknocker · 01-14-09, 12:24 AM

Forget about it. Atlanta is out of gas... How's my homie from my high school alma mater, SportNut? We're gonna have to hook up at Mexi-Cali Rose one of these days and do a greet and meet!

SportNut · 01-14-09, 12:26 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Forget about it. Atlanta is out of gas... How's my homie from my high school alma mater, SportNut? We're gonna have to hook up at Mexi-Cali Rose one of these days and do a greet and meet!

Sounds good CK, first round on me!

SportNut · 01-14-09, 12:30 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Forget about it. Atlanta is out of gas... How's my homie from my high school alma mater, SportNut? We're gonna have to hook up at Mexi-Cali Rose one of these days and do a greet and meet!

Maybe not Mexi-Cali Rose, the police headquarter is right across the street. Lavende's not so bad just blocks away.

spal2811 · 01-14-09, 12:35 AM

early line on bookmaker has spurs -2.5

should we act now and buy a point ck? or do you think the line will go down

The_Kid · 01-14-09, 01:25 AM

Originally posted by spal2811

early line on bookmaker has spurs -2.5

should we act now and buy a point ck? or do you think the line will go down

Early line movement has 63% of the public on the Lakers and it looks like there is reverse movement going on too.

lambogb · 01-14-09, 01:37 AM

jocked these facts from another forum:

HAWKS / CLIPPERS OVER 195

Over is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 overall.
Over is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 vs. NBA Pacific.
Over is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 games as a favorite.
Over is 6-2 in Hawks last 8 games as a road favorite.
.

Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings
.
Over is 7-0 in Clippers last 7 games as an underdog.
Over is 7-0 in Clippers last 7 overall.

after losing much of my money today i think i will stick to teasers tomorrow...
looking to tease, in order of faith: heat, port, atl over, spurs, lakers

better luck tmrw

BrandonLaz · 01-14-09, 01:44 AM

As much as I love your big PC plays and such CK I just don't think I can pull the trigger on the Spurs in this. Everything handicapping wise points to them as the play, but the sports fan in my loves the Lakers I am just going to have to avoid the game. I did go against you yesterday on the Heat/T'wolves game for the win, but am 0-1 going against your PC Plays so I will probably just avoid this game altogether. I do love your Bulls pick today though and will be hitting that play up as one of mine for tomorrow.

cs11787 · 01-14-09, 01:56 AM

CK,
Spurs up to 3 now. How high do you like this play?

ManBearPig · 01-14-09, 01:58 AM

His Boston play isnt a PC play btw

danrman · 01-14-09, 01:59 AM

i like new orleans.. dallas is coming off a road game and will get in late.. new orleans coming off loss waiting to kill dallas in big d... hornets will get it done in big d.. the mavs are a joke vs. good teams

cocknocker · 01-14-09, 01:59 AM

But SportNut,

Mexicali makes the best purple maragaritas. On Friday, I think that I will be down there with Grumpy, one of the PC Boys, so you might want to be in the house. Ask Pepe' or Joe for me. PM me for my government name. I'll see you there, homes! I will be with Grumpy and Stylistic, so you don't want to miss the three of us in action as we wager on the games live with fun bets!

danrman · 01-14-09, 02:06 AM

last time la played in san antonio they won 93-91... -2 1/2 is a sucker line in betting the fav. alot of times.. maybe san antonio is the play but wagering a giant amount of money vs. kobe and the lakers doesnt make a whole lot of sense to me unless the public is like 90% on the lakers...

cocknocker · 01-14-09, 02:08 AM

Folks, I already played the Spurs at -1.5 with a point buy as soon as i saw the line. I went a little light last night just in anticipation of this game. I plan on winning back my PC Play money on this one. I put a lot of consideration on this wager and took the Spurs for 6 dimes. So I am pretty serious about it!

As far as Boston is concerned, I want to e in on the parade when they start hitting again, and not just a spectator who tries to jump in after they have had 3 straight covers. I am going to keep pounding them this week, doubling up until I get satisfaction with no hesitation. I saw something when they went toovertime against the Raptors...A certain gleem. In a couple of days you will know what I'm talking about when they have three straight covers and everyone is sitting on their hands. Orlando is in front of them record wise, and the C's are facing the prospect of not having a home court advantage throughout the playoffs. Cleveland is breathing down their neck too. I ain't waiting for anything. I'm gonna get mine right now!

maddog, when do I sell this ATVI stock homes?

cocknocker · 01-14-09, 02:10 AM

danrman,

Put your money on the Lakers, and see what's up...I obviously put my nuts on the table. You can at least do the same tonight, right? I can't be the only one out there with a set...Put em up, baby!

Razz_Donkey · 01-14-09, 02:17 AM

CK,

Best of luck with your big plays tomorrow, I'm likely to be on them as well. I'd like to point out that so far this week every road team has covered the spread. I can't imagine this continuing for much longer... Also, I'm liking a small play on Golden State tomorrow. They have some injuries, but there is plenty of young talent coming off the bench. They are 9-6 ATS at home, and the over has hit 11 out of 15 times playing at home. Neither them nor Sac play any defense, we should be in for a high scoring and fast paced game. I think I will take a parlay with GS and the over. Any thoughts?

cocknocker · 01-14-09, 02:21 AM

I'm not gonna wait and see. I have handicapped this game out, and I see the Spurs winning by 6 with all of the filters in place. You gotta go all out. Because at the end of the day, you can at least say that you tried, and that you gave it your all, win/lose/draw the stars will twinkle a little more for you. The dancer that was untouchable for you is now in front of you. When you go all in, there's a rush.. a loss of breath, and everyone knows that you are the man, and that you will have a name if you lose. The cards may not fall in your favor, but the woman is still dancing, doing everything you want her to do until the moment comes. you've got the opportunity....shoebox is on the road now sleeping in a foreign bed thinking of tomorrow's commision. cheesehead004, and jaymac82980 are making a name for themselves. When you are called upon by the man above to go all in, the dealer and everyone at the table is looking at you in your sunglasses and they all want to know if you will call or stay. And on a day when I am putting up 6 dimes on one play, I have a question for you, my friend danrman...

Will you call or stay?

heyheyhey · 01-14-09, 02:25 AM

lets get paid ck

dreday · 01-14-09, 02:26 AM

Dam I love the spurs in this spot also but I can never bet against my Lakers... I know its said that a real Gambler has no Team, and trust me, I would be so far up if I could bet against the Lake Show, but I dont have it in me....plus my boys would knock me out if they hear me cheering for the opposite team.....BOL.

cocknocker · 01-14-09, 02:27 AM

Razz Donkey,

Hell naw! I am too focused on the task at hand, and I would probably defer that question to nonsense48. I know that Dexter is a buyer, and he will be ALL over this pick in the morning, so all of the small time games have not been researched by the thirsty ones. I cannot give you what you want to know about my local team. It's the Green Machine, Bull Market and Spurs for me. Check out the Spread.com and see if the power rankingadds up with this play and that will nswer your question, my good man.

cocknocker · 01-14-09, 02:31 AM

Matter of fact, I am going to drop the Bulls and roll with the Celtics and the Spurs only and change my card to reflect that. Only two plays from me tomorrow..

CTS5 · 01-14-09, 02:31 AM

Bucks -5.5 looks like the best play for tomorrow. Miami went all out their last few games, and the Bucks should stomp on them tomorrow.

CTS5 · 01-14-09, 02:48 AM

Also a lakers fan, but if you look at the game tomorrow spurs look like an excellent play. Yes the lakers covered the rockets today, but that was very close and lucky in my opinion. Spurs are coming off some hard losses including that lucky win by the magic a few days ago in which they could not miss a shot. Lakers are coming off a nice win in houston with a shortage of players. Expect the spurs to come out very strong tomorrow. Let public drive the line down to about -1. If there is reverese line movement, pound the spurs for even more money as that should strengthen the case. I will wait until game time to lock in my bet.

peetlui · 01-14-09, 02:53 AM

Hey Ck, I'm inspired by your confidence and find it difficult not to follow your lead in these two plays...I can hear the gravy train pulling in and now it's time to jump aboard! Shovel all the coal in.....gotta keep it rollin!

cheesehead004 · 01-14-09, 02:55 AM

What do you guys think is gonna happen to the SAS-LAL line? I wanted to get in on the Spurs at -1.5 but I dont wanna buy it down from -2.5. I'm thinking the public loves LAL and will pound them, but what will happen to the line?

strybie · 01-14-09, 02:58 AM

I take LAL +2.5. LAL struggle to cover against weak teams, but here you get +2.5. I also play LAL ML. The spurs can't convince me this year. Lakers are hot and won 10 of their last 11 games with an average score of 108 !

LAL +2.5 (100$)
POR -1.5 (50$)
BOS -9.5 (100$)
NYK -5 (100$)
MIA +6 (and small play ML) (100$ & 25$^ML)
SAC - GS : over 224 (50$)
ATL -4.5 (50$)
IND ML (but don't see any lines yet) (50$)

The_Kid · 01-14-09, 03:20 AM

Originally posted by cheesehead004

What do you guys think is gonna happen to the SAS-LAL line? I wanted to get in on the Spurs at -1.5 but I dont wanna buy it down from -2.5. I'm thinking the public loves LAL and will pound them, but what will happen to the line?

According to Sportsinsights.com, there is reverse line movement already. The public is pounding LA (79%) even though it is still early and the line went up from -2 to -3.

Razz_Donkey · 01-14-09, 03:27 AM

Thanks for the reply CK, I'll shop the idea around and see what I come up with. Again, best of luck with your big plays.

wangichu · 01-14-09, 03:45 AM

is it just me or is that knicks/wizards line ridiculous? These are two jump shooting teams, who play quick sloppy run and gun and that seems a good recipe for a high O/U, but 197.5 just seems too easy for them? The knicks are allowing the 3rd most ppg of any team in the league (106.3) and the wizards are allowing 99.9 good for 12th most ppg allowed. The wiz are only scoring 93.3 ppg but the porous NY defense is just what they need to get that total climbing. knicks score 102.8 (6th most in the league)

Over 197.5 (lean) (may switch to a team total if i get scared off the total)

also looking at the Philadel, the land where the killer's dwell, to out smoke the blazers. Philadelphia just won their 4th straight against some decent teams including rattling the hawks at home. Plus this is one of their last games before brand gets back so they need to get a few wins before he comes back and messes up their chemistry. These teams have split the season series dating back to 2003-2004 and i think this is a good time for philly to get their win because their next matchup is on the tail end of a grueling west coast road trip in a back to back set.

PHI +2 (or more) pretty sure this is more than a lean.

wangichu · 01-14-09, 03:47 AM

also love the pacers at home against the pistons. The pacers take down the juggernauts at home this year and the pistons have given them too much trouble and are too vulnerable not to be had here. If the books give the pacers points, look out.

IND +?

and leaning milwaukee too. This is their last home game before a three game west coast road trip so they'd better handle their business at home while they can. Heat are on the back end of a back to back and just scraped one out in a hard fought comeback against the t-wolves and d-wade owes me my money back.

MIL -5.5 (lean)

cheesehead004 · 01-14-09, 04:08 AM

Hmm, I just noticed the SAS-LAL o/u is at 199.5

Out of their 9 meetings last season, not ONCE did the score go over 199.5. The highest it hit was 199. Although, the Lakers have gone over 100 pts for 7 straight games and 10 out of the past 11. Are they due for a low scoring night? The one game out of the 11 was against Boston, a defensive minded team. I am conflicted about this, but for some reason I just really, REALLY want to take that under. What do you guys think?

fearless · 01-14-09, 04:16 AM

Originally posted by cheesehead004

Hmm, I just noticed the SAS-LAL o/u is at 199.5

Out of their 9 meetings last season, not ONCE did the score go over 199.5. The highest it hit was 199. Although, the Lakers have gone over 100 pts for 7 straight games and 10 out of the past 11. Are they due for a low scoring night? The one game out of the 11 was against Boston, a defensive minded team. I am conflicted about this, but for some reason I just really, REALLY want to take that under. What do you guys think?

Did you watch the Houston game? The Lakers defense is MIA. Don't take this bet, imho.