Leans for Tuesday 1/13/09

[NBA Hero]

jonapoker,

go to johnmoor's thread.
he didnt just explain but have started last nyt a play patterned to the system.
we will be able to see its effectiveness

[cheesehead004]

CHEESE, check out ky+6@tenn also. it's gonna be a close one.

Hmm, I have Tennesse, but that's just in my daily small CBB parlay that I just go with my gut feeling on each game. Kentucky does make sense when I look at it, but I dunno. This past week, I've been throwing like $10 on 5-8 team parlays on college hoops where i just go with my gut feeling and I got lucky hitting a 5 teamer earlier and went 6/8 on Saturday. I've been hot going with the gut feeling lately, so I've been doing big plays on single games, but I'm staying away from Tennessee. I have big money on Bradley, and if it hits and hopefully it's in time, I will put it on Denver over Dallas.

[UndersSuck]

MON/BOS:

Kessel is out and Martin St Pierre got called up. That means Bostons injury list looks like this: Kessel, Lucic, Bergeron and Sturm. thats 46 goals out of the lineup. Just over 40% of the teams total goals for the season.

[nonsense48]

nonsense,
do you think that the pistons can cover this one?there will be rusty coming from an injury.but i bet on det-7 as well as bobs ml.

i like det. in this spot. bobs don't play cent. div. very well and i don't think there will be a question of rust with rip and sheed. these 2 have been sorely missed. a.i. has been not as expected for det. but with the 2 main leaders coming back tonite, i think they'll put on a show at the palace but then again i'm bias as i was born and raised in det.

[Dexter]

joana - morrison has a thread here, and i believe the system is explained somewhere within...

[nonsense48]

you guys would get a laugh if you saw my legal pad and all of the x's and o's and check marks and cross-outs. it even makes me laugh.

[nonsense48]

i'm sure we all need to invest in bic pen stock

[wangichu]

My point was the size mis matchs that the magic impose, kevin martin matching up with bogans isnt a mis match, thanks

i still think you're off saying that the kings are small or even smallER... they have two 6-7 SGs in k-mart and francisco garcia (boguns is 6-5, and that DOES make a difference). The kings have 2 7ft jump shooters (spencer hawes and brad miller) and miki moore at 7-0 as well as thomson at 6-11. The kings obviously are not the better team, but they aren't outsized by any means. The line agrees with me dropping by 1.5 via RLM because some sharps know that the kings are a solid play. (plus they beat the magic SU last year, without bibby or artest, so similar team, but that was also WITHOUT K-MART!!)

SAC +8 (booked half my play last night in case it dropped)

minnesota's line moved back down to a near pickem making me believe even more there, but i still think i want to buy that up to +2 for what i like to call "d-wade insurance" (generally do the same with kobe and lebron). All i know is that the wolves are finally gelling and with 5 straight W's, they are hot right now and these discounted lines won't continue so it's time to get them while they're hot.

MIN +2

Charlotte is due to at least put a game on the pistons and the pistons have not been covering spreads of 6 plus. Also, the bobs are a burgeoning defensive squad and larry brown knows that this is the perfect time to catch the pistons offguard as they come home from a roady, still missing rip.

CHAR +8

the hawks have dropped 3 straight and hit the road versus the west coast. Joe Johnson is looking to light up his former squad now that his current squad has finally learned to gel on the road. Horford might hurt, but if i can get this up to 8, i will trust josh smith to clog that center with help from zaza.

ATL +8

[mjeecay]

is it just me? or do lakers seem like a steal first half with -2 vs rockets?

[nonsense48]

WANG, rip and sheed are both playing tonite. WELL and RESTED

[JohnMorr08]

Hello Gentlemen....

For anyone who hasn't seen it before I've attached (a very simple version of) the system. There are some added filters and capping involved to decide which series to follow.

Anyway, it is designed as a "Chase" system where you'd stop on your 3rd bet regardless of the result.

Bottom Line = overall I am 34 - 11 with the system this season. (34 - 0 Chase).

The system has NOT gone past bet B yet this season. In fact, bet A has hit at ~80% clip.

[joanapoker]

thx CK, nbahero and dexter,

I just saw his thread....didn't understand very well the system but a 65% winning record always makes me happy! I'll start to see is thread more often!---well he put a pdf now for help. thx johnmorr

Now i need some help on money management (CK, Killer and all others that feel they can help)
yesterday, Killer post made me think for a while.....is goal is $300 a day so he only makes $300 bets from 4 to 6 a day! If someone has a 57%-65% track record can easly make money that way! My question to Killer is, how much did u start ur bankroll when u 1st draw your goals of $300 a day?

CK do u go on a daily/week/month basis win (cash/%) or is more of a thing overall season/sport etc? I've read all the post u talk about money management (% that u should bet of or bankroll) but u've never spoken of your goals, ur personal money goals!

I think I should set some kind of personal goal, otherwise I'm always feeling tempted to bet more after one night loss....or I just don't know how much to put on a PC or heavy play (my regular bets are €110 to win €100, my bankroll is now €4K ~- $5.5K). Am I beeing too tight? And I usualy edge myself with live bettings when I'm seeing that the game is losing control, I've done that just befor half time with Orl -1 on the last PC play, but only that one made me some cash....all other live bettings, I think I've made more 8 or 9 so far, all made a hughe cut on my profits in that particular game. I need some help.....

[nonsense48]

cbb plays for this eve depending on local line at 6:30 est. bradley-3 HEAVY, akron-5 i agree ck, ky+6 they're a better team than tenn. and it's not a far travel for them. i may even play a 3 team cbb parlay. nba:den-6 HEAVY dal is no match in this one. det-7 i think they put on a show with rip and sheed back this eve. orl-7' magic are on a mission. atl+7' pho may win but i don't think they get the cover here. i'll post when i'm locked in. GOOD LUCK EVERYONE

[nonsense48]

poker, i have a 2500.00 a day bank and i go from tues.-mon. during the nfl playoffs i have a 3000.00 per game limit. 10000.00 limit superbowl. nba playoffs 1000.00 a game and 2500.00 a game finals. march madness is 500.00 per game and i never chase when down. i get it back little by little. never try to recoup your losses in one chunk.

[cocknocker]

joanapoker,

i never set any goals or limitations on what i am trying to do. I'm a machine. I get up see the kids off to school, take care of my horticultural needs, call my guy at Illinois University who has a sportsbook, play my Morrison plays, and my first inning wagers, build up my bankroll and hedge myself. I keep 3 different books, and one of them is like a savings account. That is the one I do my Morrison plays on and my 1st inning wagers is on another one, which I also use for my fade account, and then I have my own personal account which I play football, lacross (just kidding) and baskteball on. I don't have any big secret to how I do it. But I guess that I average around $10,000.00 a month because I always pull out $2500.00 every Monday on Greek or Betus via Moneygram or courier check. So I would assume that my "goal' would be to make that amount consistently. But at least 2-3 times a week I make a wager for $3000.00, so if I get even two of those to cash, well then there you have that average right away on one play...

[wangichu]

WANG, rip and sheed are both playing tonite. WELL and RESTED

ya i just caught wind of that, thanks. That just makes me more comfortable playing the bobs though as minute mixing just adds to the checklist of reasons to fade the pistons tonight.

[SharkMerc]

Hey CK just wondering what are your final plays for the day? I already seen Char +8, and mem +8.5, was wondering if you pulled the trigger on min or atl yet, or plan on doing so.. thanks

[UndersSuck]

Some interesting trends in the ORL-SAC game

ORL
15-4 SU vs the west
14-5 SU on the road
20-2 SU when they score 100+ pts
scoring 101.5 ppg

SAC
7-12 SU @ home
0-13 SU vs East
4-18 SU vs +.500 teams
giving up 105 ppg
3-20 SU when teams score more than 100+pts

[cocknocker]

SharkMerc,

I am still waiting it out on Minnesota and Atlanta...

[ctrivisonno]

I college hoops I like

Akron-5.5
Ball State-6

Ball state is without their best scorer/best down low guy against NIU 6'10" center.

[Killer Chihuahua]

Joanapoker,

The way I got to 300$ a bet is simple math.....I first had to ask myself how much money I could comfortably afford to loose a week and not care. That total for me was about 2800$. Not that I ever plan to loose this much but if it happened so what. So how do I get 300$ A bet from this? ok........

If I bet 5 games a day at 300$ each, that would be risking 1500$ a day (no juice added)
If I bet this amount (1500$) for all 7 days (and you know I do) that would come to 10,500$ risk per Week (no juice added)
Now if I have a bad week and hit only 40% of my bets.........well then of that 10500$ I will owe the book 6300$ (plus juice -lets say 700$ for a total of 7000$) that is 60% of my bets that i lost.
Now I did win 40% of my bets to the tune of 4200$ wohooo
So.....the 7000$ that I owe the BOOK minus what I won for the week, 4200$, comes out to a loss of 2800$ for that week that I would owe the book.
Now keep in mind I am keeping this simple with the vig and all, as we all know buying points can get expensive. But this might be a good starting point for you.
Please keep in mind that my pockets my be a little deeper than others as I own several realestate and construction companies in Houston.
But the main thing is this, 3000$ a week does not hurt me nor my family. My kids get milk, my wife still gets diamonds and my dogs dont get beat when i loose. So Bet what you can afford and you will not care when an ocassioinal PC play does not hit!
Hope this helps many.

[africanroller]

First play of the day

Kansas St +7.5 over Kansas

[bostonsbetter]

Final Plays Ready?

[L00k1nce]

Any hockey picks.

[djpremier36]

Cocknocker,

ORL is down to -7.5.....time to jump aboard or not?

Thx

[africanroller]

My NHL pick so far is the Flyers but the price is steep. Calgary also.

[ZHUMPY]

Hey Everyone, I have been checking your forum for about a year now and have finally become a member! I have made a lot of money from the likes of many posters.

CK, What do you have finalized for tonight?
JohnMorr, do you have any plays for tonight fitting into your system?

Also I am a guy who makes a 250 dollar 7 point teaser every night in the NBA.

Bet 250 to win 208.33
Cavs: -1.5
Magic: -.5
Hawks: +14.5

Cavs and Magic picks are just easy because both teams are great ELITE teams this year and Cavs have had 4 days for the Boston game to blow away and get down to business. Both teams are fighting for position in the East and will not allow a let down tonight out West against bad teams. The Hawks will be hurt without Horford and Shaq and Amare might put up some numbers.. however the Hawks bring so many match-up problems to the Suns.. Joe Johnson can do what ever he wants when JRich is guarding him. The Suns do not have anyone to check Josh Smith. Marvin Williams can hurt you inside and out. I just dont see a 15point loss for the Hawks tonight against an inconsistent team on Offense and Defense.

What are tonights best bets on the lines? I feel Heat line is a major trap.

[jeffbuff73]

CK,

New to the forum and really like what your doing! I have been betting for a while and my brother is a handicapper. You seem to be on top of your game and I give you props. This **** ain't easy and people get real upset when you miss a few games. I am still trying to learn and make a little money doing this on the side. I hear so many stories. I get a little inside help every day if you know what I mean and will post some plays I get on here for everyone. More $$$ the merry right?

Anyway, Dallas is now at +11 and think this is a good play. Something is up with Orlando at -3 but that seems like a steal as well. And of course, CBB Bradley. Everyone is on that and the line is only -3. Those are what I got today from "Bubba". I hope CK you can help me learn some more and help me retire a little earlier.

[nonsense48]

well gang, after all the head scratching, pencil pushing and handicapping, i've come up with just 2 plays for this eve and they are locked in as follows nba:den-6 cbb:bradley-3 for a dime each. that's it thats all. GOOD LUCK EVERYONE. PEACE AND BLESSED BE

[africanroller]

Dallas +11? Its +6 Orlando -3? Its -7.5 ??????????????????

[nonsense48]

i don't see anyone +11 where do you see dal+11?

[africanroller]

Guys Kansas has dropped a full point with with 58% on them. Get on board Kansas St +7.5

[peetlui]

exactly

I'm beginning to agree with sacramento being the play here as I scrutinize this game more carefully. The revenge factor may also come into play here as the magic thrashed them in november. They might be looking to return the favor but if not at least get the back door cover.

[africanroller]

Nonsense jumped aboard now with Bradley -3
also took Memphis +8.5

Charlotte still good value at +7 ?

[Dexter]

Dallas +11? Its +6 Orlando -3? Its -7.5 ??????????????????

lol - dont even bother dude. i asked that guy mrsink yesterday where he got his lines that were all off by 2 pts, and he just pm'd me calling me a noob, and an idiot. its not even worth asking people you dont know about lines. everyone will make stuff up to make their plays look better.

thx for the info before