Leans for Tuesday 1/13/09

[bumppinee]

the bobcats and detroit total is 174 ,i'm liking the over Ck how do you feel bout that.

[ploben]

lunch at 8:06 in vegas ploben?

maybe doyle brunson pounded the suns at bellagio!

Ohhhhh yea. LOL dumbass. And I went out of the way to put EST

Listening to Howard Stern while cruising the forum at work, ultimate multitask.

Maybe breakfast?

[MexicanStallion]

I would like to pound one big play. I have seen a lot of good plays here today with strong consensus on a few, so what do you all feel would be the best play on the board?

[ragiche]

Hello there everybody!I'm out for 2 straight days,being very busy lately.So,I'm here to share my plays for tonight's game.Actually my 1st this week.

Det -7 The reason is the pistons are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ats against the bobs at the palace.And they are coming from a blowout loss.We all know that they are coming from a 5 game road trip plus a b2b in it.Remamber that the bobs also coming from a b2b game too,coming of a 2 days rest same as det.,but this are the pistons who are used to this kind of situation,I know they are not performing well lately,but this will be a good opportunity for them to redeem themselves.I can see that they will cover this easily as they will prepare for a game with the pacers tomorrow.Felton(ankle)G.Wallace(foot)are not 100%,augustin(out).So,afield day again for stuckey and a.i.,and as for the rest of the lineup?you know what will be my answer.(Playing very heavy,vacation type) Sorry CK,Styles,Dex.I know you play the other side.GL.Don't worry I still support you all it's just we have different thoughts on this game.

Magic-7.5 Simple answer.Continue where the cash flows while they are hot."Don't fade a team which can help you win" much G's.I'll "continue to play them until they lose".That's one line that i remember when i first got here.(Medium Play)

[bumppinee]

So far i have finalized
1.bobcats/piston over 174
2.lakers -4
3.suns-7

i was kinda skeptical about
minny/miami over 199
bobcats +7

[Killer Chihuahua]

Mavs +7
When the Mavericks take on the Nuggets in Denver tonight they will not only be looking to avenge a 10-point home loss suffered earlier a month ago but also looking to rebound off a SU favorite loss in their last game. It's all good stuff as Dallas is 5-0 SU and ATS on the road this season after being upset in their previous game this season. They're also 14-5 ATS as road dogs off a SU and ATS loss when seeking revenge. The Nuggets are eying a revenge game up next against Phoenix I will take points with the Mavericks here

[Dexter]

i am loving the kings movement right now. 75% of the public is on orlando, and this line has dropped from 9 now to 7.5...this line cant drop below 7.

[cocknocker]

I don't know what's up with the Orlando line. Personally I don't see how they don't blow the Kings out, but then again, that's why they play the game. This line movement is significant however, and worthy of a look at the injury list. Something is up with this game for sure

[Killer Chihuahua]

Cavs -7.5 (bought a point)

The Cavs will avoid any letdowns tonight as they have had four days to let evaporate the big win over Boston. Memphis has dropped 11 of its last 13 and has been blown out in each of its last 2. Cleveland has dominated this matchup recently, winning all 4 meetings over the last 3 seasons and it is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS in Memphis during that span. The Cavaliers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest and 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games as a favorite while the Grizzlies are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Going againts the beat the champ theory as the wheels might not have fallen off but may have four flat tires!

[Dexter]

kc - i hear ya on the revenge angle, but that angle should have been at work on 12/15 at dallas. the nuggets took care of them there as well. they seem to just have the mavs number.

good trends though on dallas - they play much better on the road than at home.

[vassman86]

Okay, taking a quick look at today's NBA lines, the first thing that caught my eye was Orlando-Sacramento over 205, which opened at 200. Orlando is absolutely on fire and we all witnessed it in their game against the Spurs, where they went berserk from three-point range. I expect that the Magic will continue nailing three's at will; all of their three-point shooters are hot and can move the ball to the open man for a clean shot.

On the other hand, the Kings finally added to their win column with a well-played, come-from-behind, second half victory over the Mavericks. I look for them to carry this momentum into the first half of tonight's game, matching Orlando shot for shot. The Kings know that they can't let the Magic escape the first half with the lead, or the game is a loss. Because of this, you can expect the Kings to put their best foot forward in the first half. Sacramento 1H +4

[Dexter]

no injuries ck - ive been checking all over.

not that it means anything (see millsap last night and utahs silence)

[showtime2000]

Hey guys, CK and Africanroller. Sorry haven't been able to contribute much lately. Between my internet connection and work it's been tough. Might get a chance tonight too look at stuff and i really need to get my computer looked after. Emailed the moderator to see the problem. Seems like this site is the only one i have problem accessing. Hmmmmmmmm. On the computer here at work now.

Africanroller, nice call onTB and the under. Way to go! Any leans for this evening? Was looking at MIN over PHO. Pho is 1-9 last 10 against MIN. And PHIL over PIT with the over on that game, PIT is 1-6 last 7 and the over is 10-2 last 12 in PHIL.
Looking forward to your feedback.


Thanks guys this continues to be the best forum EVA!!!!!!! And all that goes to the man CK!

[Dexter]

booked my plays early today, as i'm scared the movement later may go against me on all 3.

-kings +8 (large)
-bobcats +7
-nuggets -6

Good Luck Boyz....

[LETS GET IT]

no offense, but it kind of hurts your comparative analysis when you don't even throw the king's best scorer (kevin martin), into the mix... anyways, sacto rattle the kings last year in arco winning SU. I think that with revenge to motivate them and k-mart a few games to get back in the swing kings could win this one SU again. The way orlando is playing lately, I'll stick to the points... Arco arena is just one of those tough places to play and the kings can go shot for shot with orlando for most if not all of this game.

SAC +8.5

hardly need to add much to CK's other plays, but i loved them the moment i saw them and was just glad that he's rollin' with me.

CHAR +8
ATL +6.5
MIN +2 (minny is on a little hot streak, heat are a .500 team with a couple of D-Wade bonus wins, minny is hot, and heat got their morrison cover last game.)

My point was the size mis matchs that the magic impose, kevin martin matching up with bogans isnt a mis match, thanks

[akharlip]

Dexter
With ya on the bobcats and nuggets and also with the hawks

[Killer Chihuahua]

Orlando -6.5 (buy a point and get below that key number 7)
Gonna grab them points on the cheap and play what has been working with an eye on the injury report to see why this line is falling, BUT, Orlando is 14-2 ATS vs. Western Conference teams and they are 12-2 ATS off an ATS win. The Magic are 46-22-3 their last 71 road games and they are 9-2 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. Sacramento is 3-11 ATS vs. Eastern Conference teams and they are 2-7 ATS their last 9 games as home dogs. The Kings are 2-6 ATS on Tuesday and they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 home games.

Good luck Dex as I see we are opposit sides of the fense today.......I am on Charlotte however!

[zackattack]

zackattack,

This type of comment is a no-no here. I'm not saying that you can't have those types of feelings, but you can't print it on this thread. All that you had to do was post your picks and your reasoning. No need for the other things. Just break bread, and leave it at that. Not good to point out anothers' miss on a call or two. It happens. I'm sure you know that too...

uh if you look back i didn't start it......he did.

[t-bone]

Atlanta/Phoenix UNDER 214 seems too easy.......Atlanta doesn't run and Phoenix is the definition of inconsistent. I see both teams in the mid to upper 90's making for an easy under.

I am also leaning on Bobcats +7.5 (buying a hook)

Good luck guys

[killersweet]

I did quite well yesterday and I am scared today. Cuz I usually do bad after a good day.
today so far I only like the Suns. I got them at -5(bought a point). Atlanta has been horrible lately and I think with Horford being out, Suns pound the ball inside and take this at home.

On the NHL, I like the Wild and Blue Jackets tonight. Maple leafs should win at home as well.

[chalupa]

i was thinking the over for det/char too but det doesn't score alot or cover the over when the over/under is low. i took the over last week with them at 183 and they didn't cover that but 176 does look good for the over.

[NYCKEV]

Well danrman,

I have to ride that trend until the wheels fall off. It's just that simple. it's kind of like the Giants in the NFL this year, I rode them until the wheels fell off, but in the process I had 9 covers against only 2 defeats. Until a team proves to me otherwise, I am going to keep on doing it. Don't stop the streak, let the streak stop you.

That is a lot of points that Orlando is giving away againt the Kings tho... And yes, Atlanta gives me a few headaches as far as taking them, but the system is hitting at 80% so I have to go along with a percentage like that. This actually is more of a "blind" play than I am letting on. I did not even bother to cap this game at all.

Charlotte fell already to 7 with only 29% of bettors on their side, so i have already played that game at 8. That one is final. But hey this is Dog Day, you're alright taking all of the dogs today in my humble opinion.

CK I have to point out something here. u claim to have riden the Gmen until the wheels fell off, but u and I know thats not true story. actually, one of the PC loses was Bmore against the Gmen. The only play u was wit the Gmen was -4 in the playoffs and they lost. Anyway, today I like MIA -1.5.

[nonsense48]

lunch at 8:06 in vegas ploben?

maybe doyle brunson pounded the suns at bellagio!

good 1 DEX. i needed a laugh

[bumppinee]

i was thinking the over for det/char too but det doesn't score alot or cover the over when the over/under is low. i took the over last week with them at 183 and they didn't cover that but 176 does look good for the over.

i got them at 174, last time detroit had that line they covered, last time bobcats had anything in the 170 's(177) they covered.

[cocknocker]

Okay, joanapoker there have been a few significant wiseguy moves made this morning out in the desert:

You asked for it, you got it. The wise guy play was made after Stations Line Movement posted a drop from 9 to 8 on the Magic at 8:28am. This caused a ripple effect that started at the Golden Nugget, which had an opening of 8. They dropped their line to 7.5 at 8:43am, followed by a drop of the same kind at the Hilton at 8:50am. What I find interesting, is that the Palms (owned by the Maloff Brothers) doesn't have this game on their board as of yet. This leads me to believe that there is an injury or suspension of some sort that is being witheld from the public. I wonder out loud if their book is allowed to have lines on the Kings game since the owners have a vested interest in the Kings ownership...I do however see this as a precautionary lay as the responsible party is basically saying that the 10 point win is shaky, and that a 8 point win is more likely. I still say that a Orlando wager at 7.5 will get the job done. In spite of the line moevment, I capped this game out at Orlando winning by 12 or more.

Incidently this same book had the Cavs open at 9.5 only to see the line drop 8.5 at 8:11 this morning. That is a VERY significant drop and their move brought the line down dramitically across everyone's board immediately thereafter, which of course means that the wise guy play was made at the Palms on the Bobcats.

No moves have been made on the Miami/Minnesota game as of yet

There is a line drop at LVSC on the Lakers from 5.5 to 4 at 9:40am that was spawned from a move at the Hilton at 7:45am that took the Lakers back down onto the key number (4.5 to 4). It is obvious that a mistake was made on behalf of the linemaker and the error was cleared up rather quickly. The first half line dropped from Lakers-2.5 to 2.

The Phoenix read is all over the place, and obviously the books can't figure this one out, which of course has me wanting to take Atlanta even more.

1/12 LVSC has Phoenix-8 11:37am at opening, and Stations opens at 6.5. So already there's a descrepency. Stations then gets heavy Phoenix action and increases their line to 7 by 1/13 8:28am Stratosphere didn't catch wind of the goings on as fast and had massive Phoenix action as they were still a 6.5 as of 8:03am . They then took the game off the board to make alterations and brought it back onto the board at 7 by 8:27. Meanwhile, Leroy's had the Suns at 6 as late as 8:13am this morning, but they also quickly made the alteration and by 8:23am they also had Phoenix-7. So what it looks like to me is that Atlanta had some heavy action, and the books want to discourage wagers on the Suns and get as much action on the Hawks as possible. Starting to look as if the Suns are the play here. As well as the over which has gne from 209.5 opening at LVSC and is now at 214

No significant moves have been made on the Dallas/Denver game other than the totals line which has gone down from 207 to 206 on most books.

[BebeRebozo]

Cavaliers -8,5

Los Angeles Lakers -4

Atlanta Hawks +7

[akharlip]

so you have switched on to the suns
ck?

[cocknocker]

NYCKEV,

I wasn't posting my football plays in the NBA thead until I was asked to do so by a fellow who knows what kind of damage I do in football. So prior to my first inclusion of my picks for NFL football onthese threads, i have always been riding the G-Men, but in a private fashion. I went against them on the PC Play, which is one of my losses included in that streak. Truth is, I shouldn't have done it then. BigMoney knows that I have torn up the NFL thi year, an tried every week to discourage me from taking the Boys in Blue, to no avail. When they lost, looked up the other teams next game an pounded every team that beat the Giants this year, and guess what? The "Beat the Champs" hex doesn't only apply to basketball. The G-Men made me a small fortune this year.

Secondly, I didn't take the G-Men in the playoffs. I jumped ship and watched that game as everyone knows who was on the thread that day. Know that I joined SBR in November, and the football season was well under way by that time. Check yourself, NYCKEV. You're out of pocket right now. But I have a spot for ya in my heart, because you are original CK Mafia. But you've got to have your facts and figures straight. Liars figure, figures don't lie.

[Devon]

Okay, my plays for the day are as follows.

Charlotte +8 (bought a point)
Charlotte have done very well lately covering and especially on the road, their last 15 games on the road is 10-5 ATS. That's pretty decent, I have Detroit capped to win this by 4 SU.

Minny +2 (bought half a point)
There are only 3 games this season when Miami have been favoured as the road team, and they only covered ATS in one of them by one point, this was a recently against SAC -3. I like Minny in this spot as they've been dominating lately and their last few games are 5-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS.


Sacramento +8.5 (bought half a point)
Loving this play. Orlando has only won one game against SAC in their last 12 meetings at SAC and that has been by 3 points. They are also 1-3-1 ATS on the road against them. The Magic team this is year better, however, only had blow outs of greater than 8 on the road against Minny, Chicago, GState; the rest on the road this season have been relatively close. Think there's too many points given to SAC here. Sac are heaps better with Kmart back and getting his minutes up. Playing it bit bigger than normal.


Leaning Denver (not playing them yet however)
Dallas' recent form - 0-5 ATS, since December they've lost 3 of their four games where they've been favoured as a dog. They're also 0-6 ATS against Denver. HOWEVER, Denver have only covered 2 games when they've been favoured by more than 7 this season. And then there's the revenge factor for Dallas when they got ashamed at home to Denver earlier this season, might wait to see line movement and injury news on Howard and Kidd.

Leaning Atlanta - still sweating it up
Atlanta have lost their last 3 games straight up, good team >.500 bounce back after three losses. What I like is Atlanta are 6-3 ATS when playing on the road recently, while the Suns are 3-8 in ATS at home in their last 11 games.

If I have anything else I will post later. GL guys.

[NYCKEV]

lol-CK u and I know I'm OG to the Mafia, but once u talking bout my Gmen I have to jump in and give my 2 cents. No hatred at all brotha I just didn't see u posting any Gmen picks this yr at all, but like u said those picks were done in a private fashion.

What are your thoughts on the Lakers -4? I'm thinking the Lakers should cover this one without a problem since both Tmac and Artest are out for Hou. I really don't see how soft Yao will be able to handle both Bynum and Gasol.

I like Lakers -2 1st half.
Lakers - 4 for the game.

GL to all

[cocknocker]

akharlip,

I am in a quandray right now, because the llnemovement says to take the Suns, and the Morrison system indicates that i should take the Hawks. So do i go with the tested system that hits at a 80% clip, or go with a single day's line movements? That is a tough one to decide upon. Not good when 58% of bettors are on the Hawks and the line rises on them... I think that I am gonna wait and see what other movements the line has in store for me. if it goes up to 7.5, then i am more than likely take the Suns and pray the system doesn't work for one day. I am putting up my normal $500.00 per wager today, so whatever thecall is it has to be right.

[cocknocker]

NYCKEV,

You may not want to hear this, but, I actually think that the Rockets will get the job done, especially since they aren't expcted to get it done, if that makes sense. It seems like whn you expect for them to play well they play like crap, and when you want them to lay down and take a loss, they shoot the lights out from the arc. This is a tough call, but given the lakers trak record of covering, i would think that the Rockets is the call here. However, regardless of what the Lakers do today, I am on the Spurs tomorrow, as the Lakers are playing a back to back in Texas with Orlando on deck waiting for them at the house when they get back with their legs wide open

[Dana4U]

CK - when you expecting the next PC play to surface?

[NYCKEV]

Thanks CK ur insight is def apprecaited, but I will stick wit my gunz on this one. Yao has to be the softest at his position and it will show tonight against gasol and bynum.

[Devon]

CK - when you expecting the next PC play to surface?

Dude, one day at a time. Just wait it out, there's about 4-5 PC's a month. You do the math!