Leans for Tuesday 1/13/09

ClockCleaner · 01-13-09, 12:28 AM

ck, What do you think about playing teams in the final games of road trips that they are winless on.

Heard the announcers say the Hornets should have never lost to the Knicks tonite. They added that this was they're final game of a road trip that they were winless on. Then I said to myself, thats the reason they won idiots. They probably would have beat most teams tonite with the exception of maybe the true elite teams in the league which the Hornets are not one of. Think this would be a good angle with teams playing hard to get at least one win or at least cover the spread.

pho3nix32 · 01-13-09, 12:28 AM

great to see you back CK!

Line: DM+6@DN

"Games over the last 3 season:
DENVER is 7-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons.

Games played in Denver over the last 3 seasons:
DENVER is 4-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons."

Rolling with Nuggets-6 here.

MarkHammond · 01-13-09, 12:28 AM

CK I like the Kings to cover as they been a good home team ATS as of late. I know the magic are hot as shit but I think its a good spot

pubster77 · 01-13-09, 12:30 AM

MIA -1 looks like a strong play for me.

MIN has is 8-1-1 in their last 10 ATS so im thinking the line may be giving MIN too much credit.

MIN lost 13 games in a row before going on the streak that they are on now. Currently they have won 7 out of their last 9 games. However each of their 7 wins has been against a team below .500.

MIN is 0-13 in their last 13 games against teams .500 and above.

Wilforth · 01-13-09, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by pubster77

MIA -1 looks like a strong play for me.

MIN has is 8-1-1 in their last 10 ATS so im thinking the line may be giving MIN too much credit.

MIN lost 13 games in a row before going on the streak that they are on now. Currently they have won 7 out of their last 9 games. However each of their 7 wins has been against a team below .500.

MIN is 0-13 in their last 13 games against teams .500 and above.

Good analysis but the word "upset" exists for a reason. Minn ML to the bank!

SharkMerc · 01-13-09, 12:44 AM

Good picks CK so did u finalize some of these picks already when u put them up this early or do u wait it out until the morning? I especially like the charlotte n minn plays, but im gonna follow u all the way.. lets do this!

pubster77 · 01-13-09, 12:46 AM

Wilforth,
MIN definitly can win, but i wouldnt really call it an upset as they are only 1 point dogs right now.

SportNut · 01-13-09, 12:48 AM

Going with Magics -9. Nuggnuts -6 over Mavericks.

ClockCleaner · 01-13-09, 12:48 AM

Nuggets are the best play on the board. Mavs are a wreck, Jason Kidd is banged up and no Josh Howard. Nuggets just lost at home to the Pistons. Nuggets will rebound nicely here and this the perfect team for them to do it against.

Look for this line jump up to 7 by tipoff.

cheesehead004 · 01-13-09, 12:59 AM

I like over 198.5 in MIN-MIA. Neither team exactly plays any defense, the Wolves are hot and scoring big lately. At least 100 for MIN in 7 of their last 9 games, with their game going over in the last 7 of 9. Miami has had 3 straight games go over now, and I like the scoring to continue.

EDIT: You guys have convinced me to take Denver tomorrow.

My other pick, will be in College Hoops which is my strength. 10-6(4-1) Bradley just lost their first conference game to Creighton the other day and is going up against conference opponent 4-12(2-3) Indiana St. I like Bradley to absolutely destroy In St tomorrow, and the cherry on top for me was when I saw the line was Bradley -2. AND THEN, I see that Indiana State's top scorer who provides 36.5 minutes, 14 PPG, 3.9 APG, and 3 RPG for Indiana St is DOUBTFUL for the game.

Ohhhh lordy lordy lordy I will absolutely be HAMMERING Bradley on the road tomorrow.

Razz_Donkey · 01-13-09, 01:23 AM

CK,

I know you have Atlanta listed at +7.5-8, how worried are you about the match up problem in the paint? With Zaza starting (Horford being out for at least a week) and left to guard Shaq it would seem to be an overwhelming advantage to the Suns. The entire Atlanta team seems undersized compared to Phoenix... Infact the only other player over 6-10 other than Zaza (Randolph Morris) has only seen 40 minutes of action all season. I feel rather hesitant on this and was hoping to hear more thoughts on it.

Also, any thoughts on Orlando 1st half at -5 (estimate)? They have led by an average of 13.4 over the last five games at halftime. I would think they have a decent shot against the Kings poor defense to jump out to an early and big lead...

LETS GET IT · 01-13-09, 01:34 AM

I think Dallas @ Denver goes over 207, Denver scores at home and dallas doesnt play any D without howard

tee401 · 01-13-09, 02:09 AM

All the dog barking tomorrow guys!!! (^.^), i would take all dog teams tomorrow, and i think it gonna be 5- 2 atleast!!!

jamesrg · 01-13-09, 02:12 AM

Detroit

Denver

Orlando

The_Kid · 01-13-09, 02:15 AM

Originally posted by MarkHammond

CK I like the Kings to cover as they been a good home team ATS as of late. I know the magic are hot as shit but I think its a good spot

Good spot for the Kings. Orlando might be looking ahead at their next game against the Lake Show.

cs11787 · 01-13-09, 02:37 AM

Hey CK I know we gotta keep goin with the "Beat the Celts" hex but dont you think the reason why Lakers were the only ones to cover after was because they are a top notch team? As so is Cleveland? Besides the Lakers, all of the other teams that were "hexed" are not half as good as the Lakers or Cleveland. I also think Orl should have their way with Sacramento.

cs11787 · 01-13-09, 02:39 AM

Also, Im with you on the Atl pick but do you think a first half bet would be better or full game? Ive been testing out this theory I have and its worked out quite well. If there is a dog I like that is on the road, I take them first half.

nzwarrior · 01-13-09, 02:43 AM

Love the hawks+ and also bobcats, I actually see the bobcats winning this one over a fatigued detroit team. I dont think the chemistry is there anymore in detroit. Iverson is a team-wrecker. They wont cover the spread, to high for a bouncy charlotte team thats going to run circles around them..

ATLANTA +
CHARLOTTE + (plus a medium play ML)

nzwarrior · 01-13-09, 02:45 AM

With you big on ATL & CHA...

nzwarrior · 01-13-09, 02:47 AM

Maybe a small play on the hawks ML aswell, they have shown they can turn up big against some good teams this season, definately be a close game.

danrman · 01-13-09, 02:52 AM

early look

just like i said the knicks would cover the spread cause new orleans had dallas,cleve and detroit coming up... now its time for the sad sac kings to do it.. orlando has the lakers,denver and then boston at home.. look for the magic to win the game but mail it in a little early and not cover the line vs sac... sac. kings is the play...

lost my personal play which brings my record to 7-3.. a very respectable 70%... the personal play is released (if there is one) between 5:30 and 6:30...

also like the memphis play for the world champ. hex angle.. peace

ClockCleaner · 01-13-09, 03:03 AM

Why all the love for the Hawks?

With Al Hortford out who is going matchup with Shaq and Amarie? They should have field day with the undersized Hawks.

LETS GET IT · 01-13-09, 03:03 AM

I think Orlando mops by 12+, they're a pretty focused team right now going against a Kings team that yes has played well as of late, however with Hedo on a hot streak, Dwight being Dwight and Rashard and Nelon chippin in, easy big win. The Kings are going to have to deal with huge size match ups:

Udrih vs Nelson (very strong)
Salmons vs Turks
Lewis' speed and athleticism vs ??? whoever the kings play at PF
D12 vs Brad Miller....toooo slow

alittlemoresound · 01-13-09, 03:14 AM

What do u think of DENVER 1st Q ?

cocknocker · 01-13-09, 03:17 AM

Well danrman,

I have to ride that trend until the wheels fall off. It's just that simple. it's kind of like the Giants in the NFL this year, I rode them until the wheels fell off, but in the process I had 9 covers against only 2 defeats. Until a team proves to me otherwise, I am going to keep on doing it. Don't stop the streak, let the streak stop you.

That is a lot of points that Orlando is giving away againt the Kings tho... And yes, Atlanta gives me a few headaches as far as taking them, but the system is hitting at 80% so I have to go along with a percentage like that. This actually is more of a "blind" play than I am letting on. I did not even bother to cap this game at all.

Charlotte fell already to 7 with only 29% of bettors on their side, so i have already played that game at 8. That one is final. But hey this is Dog Day, you're alright taking all of the dogs today in my humble opinion.

cocknocker · 01-13-09, 03:23 AM

Sacramento is controlling the movement of the line with only 22% of bettors on their side. It has already gone down to 8.5....

The only dog that i don't like is Dallas. I think that Denver blows them off. We'll just see homies.

The_Kid · 01-13-09, 03:26 AM

Originally posted by ClockCleaner

Why all the love for the Hawks?

With Al Hortford out who is going matchup with Shaq and Amarie? They should have field day with the undersized Hawks.

Don't worry about that. Better yet, who will guard Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby? Steve Nash and Grant Hill?

I don't think so. The Suns still don't play defense and when you put them against an athletic team like the Hawks then I can't really see a blowout.

NBA Hero · 01-13-09, 03:56 AM

on atl & orl

Udrih vs Nelson (very strong)
Salmons vs Turks
Lewis' speed and athleticism vs ??? whoever the kings play at PF
D12 vs Brad Miller....toooo slow[/QUOTE]

i hope your right coz would like to see orl chalk another win. but dont think its gonna be easy. the kings can shoot with the lights out with a strong team, they showed it against lakers, esp now with k martin back in form. bard miller may be slow but his hands is one of the quickest that leads to steals. his sub hawes, made us pay in the miami match up. a 7footer who throws 3pts, ****. Lewis can be a liability at the defense at times.
you forgot to mention that lee, is playing well starting at two guard. and riddick has been on fire for two gaames now which leads to a better rotation.

On atlanta case. I got burned numerous times already with their lackluster play. bibby and joe doesnt need to be defended. they dont slash toward the basket anymore. you guys have to watch one of their games before putting your money on them. Horford being out will be greatly missed on this game. pachulia cant jump for whatever reason. he will be in foul trouble from the start of the game.

ClockCleaner · 01-13-09, 03:57 AM

Originally posted by The_Kid

Don't worry about that. Better yet, who will guard Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby? Steve Nash and Grant Hill?

I don't think so. The Suns still don't play defense and when you put them against an athletic team like the Hawks then I can't really see a blowout.

The over is the play then.

zackattack · 01-13-09, 05:31 AM

ESPN BOTTOM LINE
had a terrible day with espn today........2-5
lucky for me i rode my knicks under and port and knicks 2nd half to break even
for the last 2 weekd or so the lakers and celts have burnt lots of money........obviously linesmakers have adjusted, now its the cavs and magic turn to start not covering these inflated lines. IMO of course

wangichu · 01-13-09, 05:36 AM

Originally posted by LETS GET IT

I think Orlando mops by 12+, they're a pretty focused team right now going against a Kings team that yes has played well as of late, however with Hedo on a hot streak, Dwight being Dwight and Rashard and Nelon chippin in, easy big win. The Kings are going to have to deal with huge size match ups:

Udrih vs Nelson (very strong)
Salmons vs Turks
Lewis' speed and athleticism vs ??? whoever the kings play at PF
D12 vs Brad Miller....toooo slow

no offense, but it kind of hurts your comparative analysis when you don't even throw the king's best scorer (kevin martin), into the mix... anyways, sacto rattle the kings last year in arco winning SU. I think that with revenge to motivate them and k-mart a few games to get back in the swing kings could win this one SU again. The way orlando is playing lately, I'll stick to the points... Arco arena is just one of those tough places to play and the kings can go shot for shot with orlando for most if not all of this game.

SAC +8.5

hardly need to add much to CK's other plays, but i loved them the moment i saw them and was just glad that he's rollin' with me.

CHAR +8
ATL +6.5
MIN +2 (minny is on a little hot streak, heat are a .500 team with a couple of D-Wade bonus wins, minny is hot, and heat got their morrison cover last game.)

strybie · 01-13-09, 07:13 AM

DET -7
PHX -6
ORL -8 (don't bet against this very hot team, told the same last game versus boston. ORL has the best record on the road. As long they cover the spread I will pick ORL)
DEN -6

joanapoker · 01-13-09, 07:48 AM

Originally posted by zackattack

ESPN BOTTOM LINE
had a terrible day with espn today........2-5
lucky for me i rode my knicks under and port and knicks 2nd half to break even
for the last 2 weekd or so the lakers and celts have burnt lots of money........obviously linesmakers have adjusted, now its the cavs and magic turn to start not covering these inflated lines. IMO of course

Well Zack I didn't saw the same as you yesterday at ESPN: From what I've saw I would only play IND+10 and NY+11

they said:
NY is only 1-12 after scoring 100 points or less --- so play NYK+11
Uta is 14-4 in conference games ----- so play IND+10
on the POR/CHI game I was confused.....they showed one thing good for both teams!

joanapoker · 01-13-09, 07:50 AM

And talking about yesterday:

damn me if I'll make more parlays:

NJ-4.5 x POR-2 $250 to win $410

fckkkk NJ