2012-13 NBA Picks

**pattymayo** · 01-18-13, 08:48 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

Yeah there have been some jumpy lines today. I don't think anyone thought the line would reach +6 in the Mavs game. Honestly, I just don't get the line movement. I don't see how Dallas doesn't show up for this game. OKC embarrassed them last year in the playoffs, Friday night game (fans should show up), nationally televised game, and the Mavs are finally starting to gel.

agreed... and you gotta think OKC is due for a bad game sometime soon. They've been pretty much cruising since that loss to Washington

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-18-13, 08:50 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Thanks guys. I definitely didn't get the best number available, which obviously concerns me.

Since your final decision to place wagers are solely off of line movement,why would you place an early bet especially of this size on a mere guess of where the line will end up when this is a clear disadvantage to you?

Since the closing line tells you who will most likely cover the ATS the majority of the time, this is when you should place a bet or pass.

**pattymayo** · 01-18-13, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Since your final decision to place wagers are solely off of line movement,why would you place an early bet especially of this size on a mere guess of where the line will end up when this is a clear disadvantage to you?

Since the closing line tells you who will most likely cover the ATS the majority of the time, this is when you should place a bet or pass.

I was surprised to see NC book that bet so early too. Knowing NC and how knowledgeable about line movement he is, I was surprised that he didn't think public would pound OKC and drive up the line

**No coincidences** · 01-18-13, 08:56 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Since your final decision to place wagers are solely off of line movement,why would you place an early bet especially of this size on a mere guess of where the line will end up when this is a clear disadvantage to you?

Since the closing line tells you who will most likely cover the ATS the majority of the time, this is when you should place a bet or pass.

Because they aren't.

**chinoloco212** · 01-18-13, 08:59 PM

no coin whats the deal with tony brothers as ref? why does that scare people? is there something with him and favorites or something?

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-18-13, 09:01 PM

Originally posted by pattymayo

I was surprised to see NC book that bet so early too. Knowing NC and how knowledgeable about line movement he is, I was surprised that he didn't think public would pound OKC and drive up the line

He was expecting or counting on RLM since the public won every single NBA ATS play last night and OKC is by far the largest public play today both ATS and ML.....

TOP TEN BETS
TODAY'S GAMES

1	Oklahoma City Thunder	POINT SPREAD
2	Oklahoma City Thunder	MONEY LINE
3	Boston Celtics	POINT SPREAD
4	Philadelphia 76ers	POINT SPREAD
5	Iona	POINT SPREAD
6	Chicago Bulls	POINT SPREAD
7	Brooklyn Nets	POINT SPREAD
8	Atlanta Hawks	POINT SPREAD
9	San Antonio Spurs	POINT SPREAD

With that said, I still believe Dallas at least cover the ATS.....................

**No coincidences** · 01-18-13, 09:02 PM

Originally posted by chinoloco212

no coin whats the deal with tony brothers as ref? why does that scare people? is there something with him and favorites or something?

Road teams cover ATS at an alarming rate.

**No coincidences** · 01-18-13, 09:03 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

He was expecting or counting on RLM since the public won every single NBA ATS play last night and OKC is by far the largest public play today both ATS and ML.....

TOP TEN BETS
TODAY'S GAMES

1	Oklahoma City Thunder	POINT SPREAD
2	Oklahoma City Thunder	MONEY LINE
3	Boston Celtics	POINT SPREAD
4	Philadelphia 76ers	POINT SPREAD
5	Iona	POINT SPREAD
6	Chicago Bulls	POINT SPREAD
7	Brooklyn Nets	POINT SPREAD
8	Atlanta Hawks	POINT SPREAD
9	San Antonio Spurs	POINT SPREAD

With that said, I still believe Dallas at least cover the ATS.....................

Any list that has Iona over the Magic isn't worth the paper it's printed on.

**No coincidences** · 01-18-13, 09:09 PM

WAS +10.5 (2.2U to win 2)
WAS +6.5 1H (2.2U to win 2)

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-18-13, 09:13 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Because they aren't.

You have 26 pages of 879 posts in this thread that say otherwise.........

If you don't know this it is because you are in denial.............

**No coincidences** · 01-18-13, 09:18 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

You have 26 pages of 879 posts in this thread that say otherwise.........

If you don't know this it is because you are in denial.............

Nothing like a good sweeping generalization.

Have you not noticed how many times I post plays way before opening tip? Or how many times I bitch about beating the closing number and the play losing anyway? I'm not saying I haven't made plays based on line movement alone, but to pretend that's the only reason is absurd. I'd be bankrupt if I did that and nothing else.

**No coincidences** · 01-18-13, 10:12 PM

DAL +9.5 live (3.3U to win 3)

**No coincidences** · 01-18-13, 10:34 PM

I'm fvcked.

**Speedy88** · 01-18-13, 10:40 PM

Ughhh....Dallas.

**BigDofBA** · 01-18-13, 10:40 PM

Considering how bad Dirk and Mayo have played the Mavs are only down 14.

You just need a small run before halftime to get it under 10.

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-18-13, 10:41 PM

We are complete dumb fukks for taking Dallas against the best team in the NBA,it is that simple............

**PS3** · 01-18-13, 10:45 PM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

Considering how bad Dirk and Mayo have played the Mavs are only down 14.

You just need a small run before halftime to get it under 10.

This is what I'm hoping for. Mayo and Dirk needs to get it together.

**BigDofBA** · 01-18-13, 10:49 PM

There is that run I was talking about. You're right there.

**No coincidences** · 01-18-13, 10:54 PM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

There is that run I was talking about. You're right there.

If Dallas goes on a run in the third quarter, I'm seriously considering buying out of some of this.

Just once, I'd like to bet against the Thunder and not have them bring their A game.

Live line is +8 at half.

**Capybara** · 01-18-13, 10:56 PM

Guys, can I pound OKC -1 2H or what? Still pissed about the Celtics getting ass raped by the refs and blind luck.

**Speedy88** · 01-18-13, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

If Dallas goes on a run in the third quarter, I'm seriously considering buying out of some of this.

Just once, I'd like to bet against the Thunder and not have them bring their A game.

Live line is +8 at half.

I've bet against OKC a number of times, and have only bet on them a few times. I should just blindly bet OKC every game the rest of the season, I'm sure I'd come out ahead at the end of the year.

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-18-13, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

There is that run I was talking about. You're right there.

These runs happen everyday by the shit teams late in fist half only to shit the bed in the 3rd then make it look good by making a run to come close to the ATS number but no cigar in the 4th............

NBA= same story=getting old

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-18-13, 10:58 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

Guys, can I pound OKC -1 2H or what? Still pissed about the Celtics getting ass raped by the refs and blind luck.

I would,

Dallas is doomed

**No coincidences** · 01-18-13, 10:59 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

I've bet against OKC a number of times, and have only bet on them a few times. I should just blindly bet OKC every game the rest of the season, I'm sure I'd come out ahead at the end of the year.

Agree. I think Durant is averaging about 40 PPG in the games I bet against them.

I love the Thunder, too. Not sure why I put myself through this. I thought Dallas would play much better as a veteran team in such a big spot.

**No coincidences** · 01-18-13, 11:22 PM

Unreal.

Just went from 65-58 to 72-58 in about 20 seconds.

**BigDofBA** · 01-18-13, 11:26 PM

Just took Dallas +12 live.

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-18-13, 11:26 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

These runs happen everyday by the shit teams late in fist half only to shit the bed in the 3rd then make it look good by making a run to come close to the ATS number but no cigar in the 4th............

NBA= same story=getting old

Same movie over and over over and over over and over over and over
over and over

will the 4th ring true as well?

stay tuned

**No coincidences** · 01-18-13, 11:42 PM

Is it just me, or does Oklahoma City hit a big shot in the final seconds of every quarter?

Fvcking Durant slapping my bet around with his dick.

**BigDofBA** · 01-18-13, 11:44 PM

I always laugh when Ibaka drains threes at the end of a quarter. It's like the guy all on the sudden becomes a great three point shooter.

You still have a chance. Dallas just needs one good run.

**Capybara** · 01-18-13, 11:45 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Is it just me, or does Oklahoma City hit a big shot in the final seconds of every quarter?

Fvcking Durant slapping my bet around with his dick.

**Seto** · 01-18-13, 11:50 PM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

I always laugh when Ibaka drains threes at the end of a quarter. It's like the guy all on the sudden becomes a great three point shooter.

You still have a chance. Dallas just needs one good run.

Twice in this game Dallas has had a chance to go for one shot at the end of a quarter, not done it, missed the shot and OKC scored on the last possession.

**No coincidences** · 01-18-13, 11:50 PM

Well, here's my chance. Live line down to 5.

**No coincidences** · 01-18-13, 11:50 PM

Originally posted by Seto

Twice in this game Dallas has had a chance to go for one shot at the end of a quarter, not done it, missed the shot and OKC scored on the last possession.

Exactly.

Something tells me that's going to come back to haunt this bet.

**No coincidences** · 01-18-13, 11:53 PM

I'm letting it ride for now.

(covers head)

**BigDofBA** · 01-18-13, 11:57 PM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

Just took Dallas +12 live.

Looking good...

Still thinks this comes down to the last 30 seconds.