Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

**sando** · 08-02-13, 01:48 AM

NRL
Bronco's @ Knight's
The Knights are without both their starting prop's for this game, creating a rather unusual situation where the Bronco's have the superior pack and the Knight have the superior back line, especially across the 3/4 line. The Bronco's have an oustanding record against the Knights (27-12), having dominated them for pretty much 25 years since they both came into the league in '88. They also have won 4 of the last 6 in Newcastle. Newcastle have been very flaky and unpredictable this season, the gap between their best and worst is as big as any team running around, however they have been more consistent at Hunter where they are 6-3 with an average winning margin of an astonishing 24 points this season. The Bronco's are 3-6 on the road and only 3-8 (home & away) over the last 3 months. My favourite stat - the Bronco's are 0-7 against top 8 teams this year - ouch. The line is about as suspicous as a nun doing squats in a cucumber field, however with Reed and Hannant probable in's for the Bronco's and Big Willie and Snowden out for the Knights that explains some, but not all? Even with those in/outs I would handicap the game as Knights -6.5 to -8 from a stats/numbers point of view and Knights -6 from a subjective point of view. As always I'll bite, I don't spook easy. There is so much more to say, but precious little time to get it out...
1.5* Knights -3.5 ($1.79 Sportsbet)
1.5* Knights -5.5 ($1.96 Luxbet)

**OZnBa Fan** · 08-02-13, 02:04 AM

Originally posted by sando

NRL
Bronco's @ Knight's
The Knights are without both their starting prop's for this game, creating a rather unusual situation where the Bronco's have the superior pack and the Knight have the superior back line, especially across the 3/4 line. The Bronco's have an oustanding record against the Knights (27-12), having dominated them for pretty much 25 years since they both came into the league in '88. They also have won 4 of the last 6 in Newcastle. Newcastle have been very flaky and unpredictable this season, the gap between their best and worst is as big as any team running around, however they have been more consistent at Hunter where they are 6-3 with an average winning margin of an astonishing 24 points this season. The Bronco's are 3-6 on the road and only 3-8 (home & away) over the last 3 months. My favourite stat - the Bronco's are 0-7 against top 8 teams this year - ouch. The line is about as suspicous as a nun doing squats in a cucumber field, however with Reed and Hannant probable in's for the Bronco's and Big Willie and Snowden out for the Knights that explains some, but not all? Even with those in/outs I would handicap the game as Knights -6.5 to -8 from a stats/numbers point of view and Knights -6 from a subjective point of view. As always I'll bite, I don't spook easy. There is so much more to say, but precious little time to get it out...
1.5* Knights -3.5 ($1.79 Sportsbet)
1.5* Knights -5.5 ($1.96 Luxbet)

that line has already moved to 4.5 on luxbet seems suss??

**sando** · 08-02-13, 02:07 AM

Originally posted by OZnBa Fan

that line has already moved to 4.5 on luxbet seems suss??

-4.5 is the current line mate pretty much everywhere. I've simply split my bets using PYOL as 4 and 6 are both key numbers in NRL.

**OZnBa Fan** · 08-02-13, 02:10 AM

Originally posted by sando

-4.5 is the current line mate pretty much everywhere. I've simply split my bets using PYOL as 4 and 6 are both key numbers in NRL.

ahhh kk

**benrama** · 08-02-13, 02:24 AM

S22 good job scouting the props, I like Jennings under too but my concern is that Roosters turn this into a blowout. I was on Seattle too in MLB, and I was also on the Saudis +22.5. Sometimes I feel like giving a royal "fk you" to the gambling gods but I'm more zen these days. The bad beats are part of the mental test.

I'm on knights -4.5 too, and the under, BOL all!

**OZnBa Fan** · 08-02-13, 02:42 AM

just got a parlay that I thought I would share for the AFL this weekend

north Melbourne +38.5
GWS +26.5
carlton + 24.5
West coast ML

$2.67

GL

**OZnBa Fan** · 08-02-13, 02:45 AM

also I have *0.5 on North Melbourne/Geelong halftime/fulltime @ $6.50

I don't think this needs any explaining

**lordkai35** · 08-02-13, 02:48 AM

Originally posted by s2230011

I'll have a look at Roberts, but I just made a play on sportsbet.

Jennings U135.5 .. seriously 135.5 for a center?? ok here is the breakdown as fair as possible.

He only exceeded that total 2 from last 8 games and that was against Dragons and Eels. Last week he reached 130 but that was on a back of a length of the field try, and to be fair Jennings has done that a couple of times this year. Generally thats a huge number for a centre and maybe its because he is up against his former club ? But the Roosters and Panthers played each other once already this year and he accumlated 83m then.
He is up against Whare, who has a bit of speed so it wont be a Matt Prior or something.

So I did one last check and Luxbet had this at 120 ... so I knew I found a good one .. in theory at least

i like jennings under 135.5 ALOT gonna make the play for 1unit, just hoping no lenght of the field stuff..

**lordkai35** · 08-02-13, 03:02 AM

also very confident on roosters 13+ tonight

last time two teams met it was 30-6 roosters and this was during the period where penrith were in form having beat storm the following week and over performing in the first half of the game (10-6 roosters ht score). Currently penrith are without Plum who is probably their no1 ,2 prop and enforcer. they have been thrashed last two weeks and only beat parra by 7..
roosters demolished sharks without sbw and managed a 13+ against knights who were at home.
roosters demolished sharks by 40 who demolished penrith by 28. theres a wide gap between goods teams and bad teams this year and with roosters charging for minor premier they know they must score bigh to win the for/against incase of tie for games won with souths.

please provide your thoughts

**sando** · 08-02-13, 03:10 AM

　

How to take full advantage of Sportsbet's generous August promo's (in my humble opinion).
　
　
AFL
The AFL promo is if your 1st goal scorer goes the whole game without kicking a single goal we will refund your bets.
How to play it - Look at the match and pick the 1 player from either team that you think is least likely to go the whole game without a goal (Kennedy - West Coast, Tippett - Swans, Cloke - Pies, etc) and simply back them for 1st goal scorer.
　
　
NRL
The NRL promo is if any winger scores the 1st try then we will refund 1st try scorer bets.
How to play it - Whatever you do, don't back a winger as the 1st try scorer. These 4 guys are your get out of jail free cards, so don't waste one of them. Pick a centre, hell pick a prop @ $20+, just don't back the wingers from either side.

**sando** · 08-02-13, 03:35 AM

Basketball - Asian Championship
Taipei v Saudi Arabia
Well after a poor 1st quarter, the under looked safe the entire 2nd half until the final minute - arghhh.
Iran v Korea
Iran are the tournament favourites and rightly so, however the Koreans are not getting enough respect here after coming through qualifying 5-0 averaging 92 ppg and only conceding 56ppg, including 2 wins over world #11 and tournament favourite China, plus they just beat up on the Chinese again in the opening round. Iran had barely a practice session against horrible Malaysia. Line's too high. Korea could even sneak a win.
1* Korea +11.5 ($1.85 Bet365)
0.25* Korea m/l ($5.99 Pinnacle)

**OZnBa Fan** · 08-02-13, 03:38 AM

Originally posted by sando

　

How to take full advantage of Sportsbet's generous August promo's (in my humble opinion).
　
　
AFL
The AFL promo is if your 1st goal scorer goes the whole game without kicking a single goal we will refund your bets.
How to play it - Look at the match and pick the 1 player from either team that you think is least likely to go the whole game without a goal (Kennedy - West Coast, Tippett - Swans, Cloke - Pies, etc) and simply back them for 1st goal scorer.
　
　
NRL
The NRL promo is if any winger scores the 1st try then we will refund 1st try scorer bets.
How to play it - Whatever you do, don't back a winger as the 1st try scorer. These 4 guys are your get out of jail free cards, so don't waste one of them. Pick a centre, hell pick a prop @ $20+, just don't back the wingers from either side.

you signed up to bookmaker sando?? there offering 2$ for Newcastle ML max amount $100

**Rugby21** · 08-02-13, 03:59 AM

Backed roosters 13+ and going in play on Newcastle game

**marshmellow** · 08-02-13, 04:05 AM

Originally posted by sando

Basketball - Asian Championship
Taipei v Saudi Arabia
Well after a poor 1st quarter, the under looked safe the entire 2nd half until the final minute - arghhh.
Iran v Korea
Iran are the tournament favourites and rightly so, however the Koreans are not getting enough respect here after coming through qualifying 5-0 averaging 92 ppg and only conceding 56ppg, including 2 wins over world #11 and tournament favourite China, plus they just beat up on the Chinese again in the opening round. Iran had barely a practice session against horrible Malaysia. Line's too high. Korea could even sneak a win.
1* Korea +11.5 ($1.85 Bet365)
0.25* Korea m/l ($5.99 Pinnacle)

Looks good!! Just nailed the Japan-HK grabbing a last minute +31.5 (moved from +26.5)..

**sando** · 08-02-13, 04:16 AM

Originally posted by marshmellow

Looks good!! Just nailed the Japan-HK grabbing a last minute +31.5 (moved from +26.5)..

Damn nice one, I only was only able to get +29 at Pinny, but still more than enough. The lines being set in this tourney are just whack. Must be all the gun basketball traders at the sports books are on holiday as it's the NBA off season, so they have non-specialists setting the lines? How is Japan a 30 point better side than Hong Kong based on current form? It's like they are basing their lines of last years tournament. A lot can change in 12 months...

**marshmellow** · 08-02-13, 04:24 AM

Crazy lines for sure!! I guess and hope they are on a holiday and don't come back till the next two weeks at least

**marshmellow** · 08-02-13, 04:26 AM

+17.5 on Bahrain looks juicy to me..anything on it ?? They did good Yesterday..

**Shazzadude** · 08-02-13, 04:30 AM

I got on that Hong Kong line too

I took Iran -9.5 though.

**sando** · 08-02-13, 04:36 AM

Originally posted by marshmellow

+17.5 on Bahrain looks juicy to me..anything on it ?? They did good Yesterday..

Originally posted by Shazzadude

I got on that Hong Kong line too

I took Iran -9.5 though.

Trying to juggle a whole bunch of sports at the moment, but I have to agree with Shazza. India -5.5 looks a tad short. Get back to you guys later.

**Shazzadude** · 08-02-13, 04:40 AM

The Asian qualification scores offer a few clues I reckon.

**marshmellow** · 08-02-13, 06:26 AM

Koreans had to mess it up in the last 5 sec.for nothing!!!

**OZnBa Fan** · 08-02-13, 06:27 AM

does line betting count if its draw at then end of the 2nd half when it goes to extra time?

**Lilfatbum** · 08-02-13, 06:28 AM

Was on +10.5 too marshmallow, hurting......

**marshmellow** · 08-02-13, 06:35 AM

Originally posted by OZnBa Fan

does line betting count if its draw at then end of the 2nd half when it goes to extra time?

Does for the totals..I never faced an extra time situation with spreads..I guess it should count.

**marshmellow** · 08-02-13, 06:36 AM

Originally posted by Lilfatbum

Was on +10.5 too marshmallow, hurting......

Same here..

**Lilfatbum** · 08-02-13, 06:42 AM

Originally posted by marshmellow

Same here..

Scoring only 7 points for the third... That's ball I guess

**sando** · 08-02-13, 07:05 AM

Basketball
Phillipines v Jordan
2* Phillipines -7.5 ($1.85 Bet365)

**marshmellow** · 08-02-13, 07:13 AM

Bahrain +17.5 was a cake walk..taking the overs for Phillipines vs Jordan..

**davopnz** · 08-02-13, 07:24 AM

-6.5 on 365 now -9.5 elsewhere...not having an acc there is starting to frustrate me

**ender749** · 08-02-13, 07:33 AM

Originally posted by davopnz

-6.5 on 365 now -9.5 elsewhere...not having an acc there is starting to frustrate me

I bet quite big @-6.5 on Bet365 and hedged a little at Pinnacle @+9. Why don't you have an account with Bet365 davopnz? Did they limit you?

**OZnBa Fan** · 08-02-13, 07:59 AM

anything on wnba tomorrow trgga?

**trigga50** · 08-02-13, 08:45 AM

Originally posted by OZnBa Fan

anything on wnba tomorrow trgga?

I was looking forward to todays card but after seeing the lines they are very sharp. Ive got Minnesota at around 16 points but its too hard to say how SA will come out and play after the break to take the -14 line.

LA VS Tula
LA and Tulsa line is also razor sharp but the total could give us a little value in an over play. Both these sides allow a high ppg, and ranked low in rebounds. Tulsa is a high scoring side at home, and LA is 2nd in the WNBA for PPG. Both sides should be full strength and no injuries or absent players.

OVER 160 @$1.91 X1.5 UNITS to win 1.36 UNITS

Washington VS Chicago
I was expecting the line to be much lower than the posted -7.5 but I guess it didn't help that Washington went down by 10 points at home to NY. Chicago should win this game but Im expecting Washington to stay competitive and keep up with them but 7 is a magic number in basketball and its hard to pick either side of the line on this one. I'm playing a small half unit on Chicago 1-10 at centrebet for $2.80.

Chicago 1-10 @$2.80 X .5 UNITS to win .9 UNITS

Washington +7.5 @1.91 X2.5 UNITS to win 2.27

(Delle Donne should miss this game due to concussion which swings my play heavily towards Washington. Washington's a better side than the books make them out to be in this one)

**trigga50** · 08-02-13, 08:49 AM

I was pretty off with the over in the AFL tonight. I think due to both teams winning records at Etihad this season, it was easy to look past their defensive efforts in each game. You could tell North were out on a mission tonight, and there was no way they were letting that game go. Too much flooding in the last half of the game for the over to stand a chance. Thought it was interesting that Kangas were able to claim their biggest scalp of the season tonight without injured captain Swallow. His leadership has been a massive talking point throughout the season, perhaps this game may have proved a small point.

**marshmellow** · 08-02-13, 08:52 AM

The FT shooting is just illegal!! Dayummm..this is way worse than WNBA

**Rugby21** · 08-02-13, 08:55 AM

Cheers sando! Went big in play at ht when Philippines where 1.66 to win straight! Also hit -3.5! Been a great day, best for ages, had sydney by 13+ as well