Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

**tommygun** · 03-02-14, 08:13 PM

Originally posted by Rabbitbrew

If you know your stuff.

As it is not a popular sport to bet on good lines/prices tend to be available a lot longer as bookies and sharp bettors focus their time and money on other more popular sports.

I might have to consider this, I've bet on 2 netball matches in my life, both were $1.75ish and both were tips from my gf haha.
If you follow it closely and know your stuff I might start watching your plays closely. Are you going to be posting in Sando's thread or start your own?

**sando** · 03-02-14, 09:49 PM

Netball

(von Bertouch less) T-Birds @ (Van Dyk powered) Pulse

1.5* Pulse -3.5 (-115/$1.87 Luxbet)

It's a new era in trans-Tasman netball, with traditional comp bottom feeders (Fever, Pulse) looking to assert their dominance over traditional comp heavyweights (Magic, Firebirds, T-birds) this season...

**rohan22no** · 03-02-14, 09:52 PM

With Sando and Rabbitbrew both posting picks, Netball just got a hell of a lot more interesting!

**Rabbitbrew** · 03-03-14, 12:04 AM

Originally posted by tommygun

If you follow it closely and know your stuff I might start watching your plays closely. Are you going to be posting in Sando's thread or start your own?

I only post here in Sando's thread.

I began posting about the middle of last season and we did quite well. Hopefully we can continue the run this year.

**OZnBa Fan** · 03-03-14, 12:10 AM

Originally posted by Rabbitbrew

I only post here in Sando's thread.

I began posting about the middle of last season and we did quite well. Hopefully we can continue the run this year.

You on sando's play mate?

**Rabbitbrew** · 03-03-14, 12:53 AM

Not personally. I missed the early line so I am staying out. Pulse should win the game easily though.

I am working on a couple of plays for this game. Just want to see the lineups first.

I'll be posting in around 15 mins.

**Martinr** · 03-03-14, 01:04 AM

Originally posted by sando

Netball

(von Bertouch less) T-Birds @ (Van Dyk powered) Pulse

1.5* Pulse -3.5 (-115/$1.87 Luxbet)

It's a new era in trans-Tasman netball, with traditional comp bottom feeders (Fever, Pulse) looking to assert their dominance over traditional comp heavyweights (Magic, Firebirds, T-birds) this season...

thanks for posting these plays guys. I agree that netball offers opportunities for sharp handicappers owing to the relatively low profile of the sport. Hopefully there's another season or two before the big money catches on.
Good luck with the Pulse today.
I'm actually going against the play here, as I think the 'Birds will be motivated by their current winning streak, and despite losing van Bertouch the team still looks to match up well against the new look Pulse. I'm also swayed by the line movement (now at -4.5 Pulse), which is set on potential rather than form, and is getting a lot of Public money. The Thunderbirds don't usually have any issues with travelling to NZ, and for the first game of the season I just think it's risky to oppose the reigning champions.
My thoughts on the Total is that it looks low, and I'm leaning over 98.5. Hallinan will be looking to assert early and set an example with the captaincy hers, and these tough defenders can often open the game up for their attack. There could be a few turnovers courtesy of Hallinan, and we know Borrego can take advantage. The Total is a no-play though to be honest. I'd like to see how this Pulse team plays in the early rounds, before parting with money.
Looking forward to checking in on your thread during the season.

**Rabbitbrew** · 03-03-14, 01:10 AM

Here we go:

Adelaide Thunderbirds @ Central Pulse (game total: OVER 98.5 goals) (1 unit @ 1.90 with Cbet/b365)

Sharni Laytons performance yesterday for the Swifts makes me realise how big a loss to the Thunderbirds see really is. It is hard to see how they are going to stop Van Dyk with an inexperienced GK. Every Pulse home game last year went over 100 goals and they have a better attacking third this year. Only worry is Leota out but with the line this low it's worth the risk.

Adelaide Thunderbirds @ Central Pulse (team total: OVER 51.5 goals) (1 unit @ 1.90 with Cbet)

Generally I don't like to double dip on a game but once again with the total this low it's hard not to. Pulse lowest home score last year was 53 goals. See above why I think they will score more than this.

Good luck and bet smart!

**Rabbitbrew** · 03-03-14, 01:16 AM

For what it's worth the NZ TAB have the total at 100.5.

(UPDATE)

Over now juiced at Cbet and up to 99.5 at b365

**Rabbitbrew** · 03-03-14, 03:17 AM

That's what happens when you double dip.

Thought we might get out of jail with ET but no dice.

Onto next week

**RedDevil89** · 03-03-14, 06:52 PM

NRL Season coming up Sando, you going to be posting your plays again this year?

**sando** · 03-03-14, 10:07 PM

Originally posted by RedDevil89

NRL Season coming up Sando, you going to be posting your plays again this year?

Yep. Working on round 1 plays today...

**tommygun** · 03-03-14, 10:46 PM

gentlemen, don't you think it is a bit risky betting in round 1,2?
We don't know where teams are at etc.

**rohan22no** · 03-04-14, 12:29 AM

Originally posted by tommygun

gentlemen, don't you think it is a bit risky betting in round 1,2?
We don't know where teams are at etc.

Everyone seems to think like this. I dont get it. Not that I disagree - I completely agree that no one knows where the teams are at, that's why its a great round for betting.

**tommygun** · 03-04-14, 01:04 AM

Originally posted by rohan22no

Everyone seems to think like this. I dont get it. Not that I disagree - I completely agree that no one knows where the teams are at, that's why its a great round for betting.

what's the play then?

**rohan22no** · 03-04-14, 01:35 AM

I posted a fair few of the stats in this thread during last years season - but long story short, and theres a bit more to it, but flat betting all underdogs in the first few rounds of the NRL is very profitable.

**sando** · 03-04-14, 04:12 AM

Originally posted by tommygun

gentlemen, don't you think it is a bit risky betting in round 1,2?
We don't know where teams are at etc.

No I do not. I don't subscribe at all to the theory of "take it easy at the beginning of the season". Traditionally I have made the most money in the first 6 weeks of a season (especially in NRL and NBA). Why should I wait for the sportsbook handicappers to "catch up", as they are relying far more on raw data and statistics and hence their line will usually be off at the beginning of a season.

Things change slowly in NRL. A club's style and culture will not change much over 1 offseason (with a coaching change being an obvious exception). Besides when you follow the game as closely as I do you are always confident and ready to go. I have literally been waiting for the season to start since early January.

**Gee** · 03-04-14, 05:53 AM

I think you might all be making similar points.

Going big on multi-unit plays is madness early on IMO, but betting your edges to hit your 53++% isn't.

I definitely don't agree with laying off, but big plays don't make much sense early either.

Hi guys!

**aussieH** · 03-04-14, 06:22 AM

Just got limited to a 17 dollar bet by the Vic tab. What a joke they are.

**thecattery12** · 03-04-14, 09:12 AM

Originally posted by aussieH

Just got limited to a 17 dollar bet by the Vic tab. What a joke they are.

Just out of curiosity, whats your average bet size there?

**aussieH** · 03-04-14, 01:28 PM

50 dollar units. This has happened before but just makes you laugh that a company that size making $$$ out of the public refuse a 50 dollar bet at 1.90.

**Marrowhine** · 03-04-14, 11:17 PM

It's stupid, if you go to the shop and put your card in the machine they will still refer to manager, If you log out and put cash in they'll take thousands!

**sando** · 03-05-14, 12:10 AM

A plethora of international football tonight.

Pick of the day...

Bosnia-Herzegovina v Egypt

2.5* Bosnia ML (-133/$1.75 Sportingbet) (to win 2.5 units)

Bosnia is a world cup level team playing at home with their stars in a hostile environment against a terrible road team who is a shadow of their former selves.

More to follow later...

**Bill_Hicks** · 03-05-14, 12:37 AM

This is being played in Austria correct? Pinny has Bosnia(n), n denoting a neutral field.

**tommygun** · 03-05-14, 01:15 AM

Originally posted by sando

No I do not. I don't subscribe at all to the theory of "take it easy at the beginning of the season". Traditionally I have made the most money in the first 6 weeks of a season (especially in NRL and NBA). Why should I wait for the sportsbook handicappers to "catch up", as they are relying far more on raw data and statistics and hence their line will usually be off at the beginning of a season.

Things change slowly in NRL. A club's style and culture will not change much over 1 offseason (with a coaching change being an obvious exception). Besides when you follow the game as closely as I do you are always confident and ready to go. I have literally been waiting for the season to start since early January.

I like the confidence Sando, good luck.

**justkyle88** · 03-05-14, 01:33 AM

Yeah it's neutral field.

**nickos86** · 03-05-14, 02:00 AM

Correct, it's neutral field. But Bosnia is right next door to Austria where game will be.

Egypt do suck against anyone, so I have no qualms fading them. GL!

**sando** · 03-05-14, 02:20 AM

Sorry lads my bad, I just assumed Tivoli stadium was in Bosnia as Bosnia was listed as the home team. Regardless Egypt really has been poor on the road and I remain confident.

Will have a few more plays later...

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 03-05-14, 02:35 AM

Nice thread, Sando.

**sando** · 03-05-14, 05:47 AM

England v Denmark

When is a friendly not a friendly?

When you have so many blokes who are still trying to impress coach Hodgson and grab a seat on the plane to Brazil. This is their last chance to impress before World Cup squad named and also Pom's need a win after average efforts at home against Chile and Germany. Denmark not going to World Cup and also missing key man Erikksen makes life more difficult.

1* England ML (-151/$1.66 Sportingbet)

Australia v Ecuador

1* Over 2.25 (+105/$2.05 Pinnacle) [Over 2 & 2.5]

Wales v Iceland

1* Under 2.25 (-110/$1.90 Pinnacle) [Under 2 & 2.5]

More to follow...

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 03-05-14, 06:17 AM

Here we go:

Bulldogs v Broncos U39.5 (BET 365) @ $1.90 - 1 UNIT

This has defensive slugfest written all over it.
The Broncos have no halves and a bum hooker.
Who knows how Ben Barba will shape up to start the season.
Hoffman selected at 5/8th out of position.
The Broncos pack love the offload, so expect plenty of handling errors as the pre-season rustiness takes time to wear off.
The Dogs are missing Kasiano, Eastwood, Inu and Lafai too.

The last 2 games at ANZ stadium between these two teams have landed on 36 and 38.
The last 4 games at all venues have failed to go above 38.
The TAB have the game at 36.5.

BET 365 opened it at 40.5 which caught my eye but after the rain this afternoon in Sydney, it came in to 39.5.
Would have hit it for 2 units if it had stayed at 40.5.

Stats point to under - if the rain keeps up, the total should keep falling, especially if tomorrow's game stays under.

Good luck all.
Best wishes for the NRL season.

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 03-05-14, 06:42 AM

Most Supercoach Points - Fullbacks

Hayne, Jarryd (Parramatta)	3.30
Slater, Billy (Melbourne)	3.50
Inglis, Greg (South Sydney)	5.00
Gordon, Michael (Cronulla)	5.50
Barba, Ben (Brisbane)	9.00
Tomkins, Sam (New Zealand)	10.00

Does anyone know if Tomkins will be taking conversions at the Warriors?

I like Tomkins and Gordon in this market.... what are your thoughts?

**micase** · 03-05-14, 06:56 AM

Originally posted by Tim Gerry Mander

Most Supercoach Points - Fullbacks

Hayne, Jarryd (Parramatta)	3.30
Slater, Billy (Melbourne)	3.50
Inglis, Greg (South Sydney)	5.00
Gordon, Michael (Cronulla)	5.50
Barba, Ben (Brisbane)	9.00
Tomkins, Sam (New Zealand)	10.00

Does anyone know if Tomkins will be taking conversions at the Warriors?

I like Tomkins and Gordon in this market.... what are your thoughts?

Johnson will be kicking with Townsend the backup if needed. Gordon should pick up kicking duties with Carney in doubt/ coming back from injury and was a gun fullback several years ago before the leg break. Hard to look past Hayne though, most successful back in supercoach from memory and will only miss one game for Parra during the SOO period (Inglis misses 3, Slater only 1.)

As for Tomkins, I wouldn't want to have much money at all sitting till September riding on a guy in his first season of NRL. He will go well at the Warriors but not being in the halves could see him have some quieter games that will bring his average down.

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 03-05-14, 07:03 AM

Cheers micase,

Gordon is probably the better bet then.
It all depends how Hayne's hammys hold up.
If he plays most games for the Eels, he should rack up enough to win it.

**yippa82** · 03-05-14, 07:14 AM

TGM / Sando do you think the Roosters will have the same intensity in round 1 especially after the grand final last year?