Afl 2012

[kingsr]

Bettels, newcastle are without Gidley and Buderus this week.

[Gee]

I'm a bit surprised that none of these lines have moved much this week and the only reason I can see for any move is team news. Melbourne came in 4 points when it was announced Grimes and Clark were going to be in and Eagles also came in 3 point when Kennedy was ruled out.

It will be interesting if there are any big moves after teams are named tonight.

Its fairly unusual for the ONLY two moves that I can see from the openers to be because of team news. Punters either taking it easy (AFL has been tough this season) or books are very happy with their lines...

I have no idea what I am going to play this weekend...

[brettels]

-13.5 , lets see how the teams are, west coast lost kennedy so thats a big dint.

[kingsr]

WestCoke half time line?

[brettels]

added newcastle knights ML and NQ cowboys ML

[brettels]

Got 4 free bets

Used 2 so far with RICHMOND money line and swans line -25.5

What else has good probability at greater than 1.5 odds?

[kingsr]

I'll be on the swans for sure and I agree this line is only low because of that stat (not beaten Adel at scg since 04).

Swans -25.5 $200 that's the best bet on the board at this stage. I'll also have $50 on 40+

Can't wait, I'll actually be at the game

[johno35]

Then play the swans line with confidence. Truth is no one really knows. I'll post my leans for every match on thursday, I'm good for a fade this year.

That is very true that no one really knows, I will def be on Sydney though. Don't be too hard on yourself mate, its a long season and things can turn around pretty quick.

[brettels]

I would set it at about 35-40

Then play the swans line with confidence. Truth is no one really knows. I'll post my leans for every match on thursday, I'm good for a fade this year.

[johno35]

Where would you have set the line if you were the bookie johno?

I would set it at about 35-40

[brettels]

Where would you have set the line if you were the bookie johno?

[johno35]

Hey guys one game that I like is Sydney -25.5, look at Adelaide wins/losses, they have only beaten ordinary teams. Also they have only covered the spread 1 time this year and that was round 1 against GC. How can it only be 25.5 points when Sydney are undefeated and beat the premiership favs last week away by 37 points! The only reason I think is because Sydney have not beaten Adelaide at the SCG since 2004, regardless of that fact Sydney will smash this overated Adelaide team. I am I alone in saying this?

[brettels]

Have any of you guys or girls placed any bets with bookmaker.com.au ?? They are very new I just would like to know how some experiences with them have been.

[Coopertrooper]

Can Richmond be trusted?

I think I'll steer clear of your game. Have been burnt a couple of times by the tigers, and port won't just roll over after losing the showdown, and also having a home game is in their favour. Too hard for me to judge that one.

I also can't see many standout games at this point, might wait and see a few points totals, otherwise might just tail and try and keep this week quiet.

[MatI]

Pretty sure melb demons line moved from 65.5 to 60.5. They have some key player inclusions this week.

I took a screenshot of all the odds on centrebet on Monday afternoon, around 4pm. But I didn't check before then. Must have been a really early move. They did look pretty good last weekend.

[brettels]

Can Richmond be trusted?

[kingsr]

Pretty sure melb demons line moved from 65.5 to 60.5. They have some key player inclusions this week.

[MatI]

Thanks for posting up those lines.

To add to that, the only line that has moved from when they were released on Monday is Hawks have come in a point from -26.5 to -25.5.

[Lookingtostart]

These were my predictions before looking at the lines. They are square, but I've got to do this more often and keep a record. Some are close:

wb vs pies -32
essendon vs lions -+26
cats vs melbourne -+68
GC vs freemantle -+40
saints vs hawks -+28
swans vs crows -+15
blues GWS -+82
port vs tiges -+3
eagles vs roos -+16

[Lookingtostart]

Round 6

....

[Libert1ne]

Yeah they're ML

[MatI]

If they are ML wins, just let it ride

[Libert1ne]

If I let them ride then the only profitable outcome is both hawkers and eagles coming through.

[Libert1ne]

Quick question for you gents here,

I have a couple plays which involve Hawks and westcoast

Hawks/Carlton Parlay: 2.5 units to win 3.93 units
Westcoast/Carlton Parlay: 2.5 units to win 3.97 units
Hawks/Westcoast parlay: 5 units to win 4.54 units
Hawks/Westcoast/Geelong Parlay: 5 units to win 7.382

I'm thinking about letting these bets ride because I'm pretty confident in both the Hawks and Westcoast, but do you guys think it'd be wise to hedge? What about hedging with Sydney +19.5 @ 1.98?

[johno35]

Spewing last night, had the total for the cats game and had saints -39.5, weather totally screwed me! Should have waited till the last second with both games.

Really like the eagles today -19.5, what does everyone else think?

[brettels]

Crows/Hawks @2.05

[brettels]

The way its going though tom hawkings might get me over the line

[brettels]

Might restrict myself to playing totals at etihad only, totally delusional only going through weatherzone app, was hovering under 40% rain during match time for the brisbane game, look at it the ball can barely bounce haha

[Coopertrooper]

had a last minute bet on saints/melb under 170.5. GL.

[brettels]

FAAARK didn't realise it would be that soaked at the gabba!!!!

[brettels]

Yeah, how can you easily beat geelong then struggle against an ablett less gold coast? its a strange year so far!

[thecattery12]

North Melbourne are real bad

[Coopertrooper]

I went down a slightly different path, took him for the most disposals in the group @4.5, had 0.5 a unit. Go Jack!

Jack the hack... 4 touches nearing 1/2 time

[brettels]

158.5 for the bris/gee game!!! 18mm of rain in brisbane so far....i still think it can over???

[Coopertrooper]

Jack Ziebell 26 disposals or more @1.90 I'm hitting this for 1 unit

I went down a slightly different path, took him for the most disposals in the group @4.5, had 0.5 a unit. Go Jack!