GroundnPound NRL/AFL Season 2011 Plays

**hedgejob** · 03-27-11, 08:58 AM

First few rounds in AFL is awlays a lottery ticket. Hold your bets for round 4 and beyond.

**waco66** · 03-27-11, 12:37 PM

look like pies had no problem covering at all. amazing

**WillC** · 03-30-11, 11:30 PM

wow, the line makers nailed round 1.

Gold Coast making their debut this week. Hard not to see them getting thumped but who knows.
Bulldogs with the shortest odds even after last weeks trash. Nothing really standing out .. maybe Freo

**GAMBLOR777** · 03-31-11, 12:22 AM

good luck this week all

**donkson** · 03-31-11, 12:31 AM

I don't think GC will get smashed necessarily.

**hedgejob** · 03-31-11, 02:50 AM

Originally posted by donkson

I don't think GC will get smashed necessarily.

Half the GC team haven't even played at this level before. Many of their star players missed warm up games/preseason due to injury. And Judd is playing his 200th. This will get ugly IMO.

**hedgejob** · 03-31-11, 02:53 AM

I like this parlay this round: STK/CARLTON/BULLDOGS. Pays about 2.

**mjespoz** · 03-31-11, 04:07 AM

Carlton at $1.25 are the best value this round. Good luck, everyone.

**rjc** · 03-31-11, 07:08 AM

Originally posted by mjespoz

Carlton at $1.25 are the best value this round. Good luck, everyone.

Value

**hedgejob** · 04-01-11, 03:56 AM

Who else likes BRI/PEN O41.5?

**GAMBLOR777** · 04-01-11, 06:29 AM

can't believe saints just lost

**rjc** · 04-01-11, 08:00 AM

Originally posted by GAMBLOR777

can't believe saints just lost

If the trend continues they will win by a point next week

**donkson** · 04-01-11, 08:08 AM

Originally posted by GAMBLOR777

can't believe saints just lost

I didn't see them lose.

**mjespoz** · 04-02-11, 07:56 AM

Like i said...... Carlton at $1.25 are good value. Maybe we calculate value differently, sjc?
I'll take 25% anyday.

Cheers,
mjespoz

**mjespoz** · 04-02-11, 08:54 AM

Especially when they win hard held like the Blues....kinds like Sepoy - and the NSWTab bet $6 for shits and giggles....LIKE I SAID, VALUE IS VALUE WHEN THE NUMBERS STACK UP!!!!

**rjc** · 04-02-11, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by mjespoz

Like i said...... Carlton at $1.25 are good value. Maybe we calculate value differently, sjc?
I'll take 25% anyday.

Cheers,
mjespoz

Safe bet yes. Value not so sure, better than bank interest I guess.
Nice win.

**hawley** · 04-02-11, 03:54 PM

no "value" in $1.25 but looking at the score it looks to have been a very safe bet

**rjc** · 04-02-11, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by hawley

no "value" in $1.25 but looking at the score it looks to have been a very safe bet

**donkson** · 04-03-11, 08:42 AM

Yeah it was basically a lock but there was a pretty big unknown factor there, it will be interesting to see if they actually get a win, because their young players are going to have to be managed pretty carefully through the season you would have thought. I think the bye in round 1 will hurt them a bit, if anyone needs their byes spread out over the season, its them.

**Gee** · 04-03-11, 06:30 PM

I think when you are relatively new to gambling, value is a term that is misunderstood.

Its pretty hard to term a $1.25 favourite as 'value' ever because of the inherent risks in sportsbetting, even if the true price should have been $1.15 or so. I had the spread and the over. Some in chat even hit the -30.5 at half time, lol.

Its easy to say in hindsight, but a lot of good judges and the linesmakers thought the Suns might show something - they didn't.

I'll be interesting to see what the Suns and Lions open at next week....

**rjc** · 04-04-11, 12:35 AM

Gold coast getting 65 points against doggies! Will that be enough?

**donkson** · 04-04-11, 03:53 AM

Pretty amazing line but at home surely they'd cover that.

**GroundnPound** · 04-08-11, 04:24 AM

Blues (+25.5) @ Magpies - (3x)

**rjc** · 04-08-11, 08:45 AM

Unlucky GNP .
I must say that some of the lines have been very sharp this year so far. You have been on the wrong side of the hook a couple of times and very close on others.
Stick with it mate the tide will turn and you will get those hook Wins in no time.

**hedgejob** · 04-08-11, 09:23 AM

Tough loss on Blues spread GnP, I was rooting for you at the bar.

Here's what I like this round:

1. Dog's line is out to 70.5 and prob go higher pre kick off. Dogs haven't covered those kind of spreads much recently. And throw some conspiracy in too, the AFL wouldn't want the Suns to get destroyed two weeks in a row. That would be a bad investment. Suns 70.5+ ( I think it will get to 72 or above).

2. Fremantle +13. Crows had one week rest, too early to have a rest IMO. If Freo play their fast game they will win this game SU. They have had the better of Adelaide recently.

3. Two teams I said I would fade this week without even seeing the odds are Sydney and Essendon. They played an absolutely brutal game last week, probably the hardest game this season. At least one of them will lose IMO so we can get even money worst case but I think both will lose.

**Gee** · 04-08-11, 08:24 PM

I gotta disagree w/ all of that HH.

Suns have 7 blokes that have played more than 1 games of Snr footy before. Dogs will be too classy. I don't think 70.5 will be enough. Recent history means nothing in an even competition - Suns are a long way behind that.

And what on earth are you on about re: Freo? Crows are 4-1 in their last 5 vs Freo and Freo haven't won at AAMI since 2007. Their record there is poor. In each Crows win of those 4, they would have covered a 12.5 point spread. Freo are also rather banged up after a tough match last week. Crows easily for me. Freo has shown nothing this season - squeaking past a Brisbane side that would have been lucky to win 7 games with Brown (and will now finish 2nd last) and getting rolled at home by Geelong. Crows were good at the end of pre-season and great vs Hawks. The rest hurts Adelaide? Really????

Edit: Crows have also been crunched from 11.5 to 13.5 in the last few days. That moves it past 2 straight kicks, which is significant. I'd already locked it in, forunately. Good for you if you are on Freo if you haven't gotten on yet.

Haven't looked at the last two games, but last week was fairly gruelling for both Sydney and Essendon.

**GAMBLOR777** · 04-08-11, 10:21 PM

GNP you're always on the right side but I've been noticing you've been getting pretty bad lines on your bets e.g I had Carlton +28.5 about an hour before game time. Maybe it's your book I dunno.

Anyway I know you'll get it back and then some in the weeks to come.

Good luck bro.

**GAMBLOR777** · 04-08-11, 11:31 PM

Just booked Bulldogs -83 live.

This is gonna get ugly.

**Pride** · 04-08-11, 11:34 PM

anyone got a link to the suns/bulls

**TwoWays** · 04-08-11, 11:38 PM

Originally posted by Pride

anyone got a link to the suns/bulls

Don't worry, Pride. If you got the Doggies, go out and come back later to collect your winnings.

**Domestic** · 04-08-11, 11:51 PM

Originally posted by GAMBLOR777

Just booked Bulldogs -83 live. This is gonna get ugly.

Good call, superior fitness of the Bulldogs will only make it easier for them to put a real margin on, we may see 100+ point win.

**Pride** · 04-09-11, 12:15 AM

what is live betting at now?

**benrama** · 04-09-11, 12:49 AM

Adelaide look horrific against Freemantle, you were on the money hedge

**Pride** · 04-09-11, 12:55 AM

lol at anyone who had bulldogs.

RIP Bulldog Backers

**TwoWays** · 04-09-11, 01:08 AM

Originally posted by Pride

lol at anyone who had bulldogs.

RIP Bulldog Backers

???? They're up 64 with one quarter + left.