Kentucky Derby - Considerations if there's a sloppy track?

[neel]

Any horses we can strike out if there's rain tmw? Any horses that should get more consideration if there is?

[CWD]

from bloodhorse:

"Late slop addition

It looks as if the Derby once again could be run on a sloppy track, unless Louisville escapes the predicted thunderstorms, as it did on Oaks day.

So, just in case, here is a look at the race with slop in mind, as it could change the entire complexion of the race.

Although many of the horses should like the slop or at least not mind it, there are three horses who look as if they should move up on a wet track, and we would box them in the exotics. They are Bodemeister, Went the Day Well, and El Padrino.

Bodemeister is by Empire Maker, who won the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) in the slop, and he is also inbred to one of the great slop influences, In Reality. In addition, he is out of a Storm Cat mare.

Another of the great slop influences is Dr. Fager, and Went the Day Well and El Padrino both trace to Dr. Fager in their tail-female family through the mares Quick Cure and Remedia. Quick Cure is the dam of Cure the Blues.

Went the Day Well’s dam is by Tiznow, whose grandsire is Relaunch, the most prominent slop influence sired by In Reality. With Mr. Prospector the paternal great-grandsire, Went the Day Well, who has run well on a good to soft grass course in England, should relish the slop and would be a definite win bet.

Another horse who should be mentioned is Creative Cause, who is by Storm Cat’s Son Giant’s Causeway, and whose maternal grandsire, Skywalker, is by Relaunch.

We could pick out others, but we’ll concentrate on the top three, as well as Creative Cause."

[Justin_sane]

El Padrino....by open lengths

[DMBcardinal]

I'm in Louisville and it is down pouring here hard. Still awhile till race, but man it's raining hard.

[DMBcardinal]

Here is a radar. More storms forming to the west, may be wet folks.

http://www.wave3.com/link/304219/interactive-radar

[CWD]

thinking about playing this tri wheel w/ BODE on top, might add UR on top?



6 BODE 8-1
w/
4 Union Rags 5-1
16 El Padrino 30-1
10 Daddy Nose Best 13-1
1 Daddy Long Legs 26-1
13 Went the Day Well 27-1
5 Dullahan 9-1

[Dark Horse]

I would wait and watch the early races for any bias.

[shopbar picks]

The jockey on union rags. Is in almost every race. Won't he be tired after riding all those mounts before the derby.

[shade3599]

A lot of jockeys race in every race. They are conditioned to be able to handle all the races.