5 most important handicapping tips/strategies

[TrickFinger]

What are the 5 most important things you consider when handicapping races?

Do you consider yourself successful?



in no particular order:

1. Beyer speed figures
2. JTC my acronym for Jockey,Trainer,Class
3. Distance
4. Layoff (second race off layoff etc.)
5. workouts

and an honorable mention to heart. Does the horse have heart???

[TrickFinger]

and yes I am successful at handicapping but poor at wagering.

I once heard you'd be most successful if you didn't wager any exotics and simply bet your picks to win.

Wagering tips/strategies will be a different post.

[mikemca]

Track Bias
Race Shape(Pace)
Odds
Form
Speed Figures

[Arletta]

Don't drink when wagering

[Arletta]

Speed figs
distance #'s
class
layoffs
jock/trainer stats

[TrickFinger]

Mike I know you consider odds when wagering but are you saying you consider odds when choosing which horses will factor?

[str]

What are the 5 most important things you consider when handicapping races?

Do you consider yourself successful?



in no particular order:

1. Beyer speed figures
2. JTC my acronym for Jockey,Trainer,Class
3. Distance
4. Layoff (second race off layoff etc.)
5. workouts

and an honorable mention to heart. Does the horse have heart???

Can I kindly ask why workouts would be considered so important?

Might have more questions later but let's start with that one.

Thanks.

[TrickFinger]

Workouts are a great indicator of how a horse is feeling, especially coming off a layoff. They also are an indicator of the horse's speed.

[RawBillyIce]

odds at ******* post!

[TrickFinger]

What do odds have to do with how a horse races?????

[mikemca]

Mike I know you consider odds when wagering but are you saying you consider odds when choosing which horses will factor?

No but the question was "What are the 5 most important things you consider when handicapping races?".When handicapping I set my own odds line. A horses odds high enough to make it an overlay are among the most important factors IMO.The point of the game is making money not picking winners.Someone could hit 40% winners and lose money.

[TrickFinger]

Of course you are right. What I'm trying to eliminate is the wagering side of the discussion. I simply want to know what is most important to you when evaluating who will win the race.

[str]

Workouts are a great indicator of how a horse is feeling, especially coming off a layoff. They also are an indicator of the horse's speed.

If you would please read post # 5 in my questions and answers thread it will shed some light on this subject. In theory, your statement should be correct but because there is such a vast difference between working a horse at 7:45 , 10 minutes before the break and when the track is cut up vs. working a horse at 6:00 AM when the track is perfect and the early morning dew has made it even quicker, a handicapper without this knowledge is given just enough rope to hang themselves. That difference alone can mean at least a second if not closer to two seconds of workout time. That combined with HOW the horse did what is recorded, tells a complete story. Merely posting a workout time, does not.
I hope you take my advise on this, I am only trying to help and you seem to enjoy what you do.

[TonyP]

horse off my stable mail
Race Shape(Pace)
competition (if any in race have raced each other before, or placed well against a known monster)
Form
how they look on the track (unless playing multi race exotics)

[JakeLc]

Expected Early Energy % of the race
FR 1 velocity
FR3 velocity
Layoff I prefer first off the layoff
odds

[TrickFinger]

Good stuff so far,

Str you raise an interesting point. I am newer to the site and not sure how to look up post number #5. In a situation where you are having trouble deciding between two horses would you compare workouts to decide?

Str, also what do you consider the most important couple of things when picking races?

[mikemca]

Good stuff so far,

Str you raise an interesting point. I am newer to the site and not sure how to look up post number #5. In a situation where you are having trouble deciding between two horses would you compare workouts to decide?

Str, also what do you consider the most important couple of things when picking races?

Basically if you are going to factor in workouts you need to get workout reports from the clockers that tell you how the horse did it rather than just depending on the final time.Often a horses workout will look like a slow 5/8ths in 1:03 but a clocker would report that the horse just galloped for the first 3/8ths then flew home and had a strong gallop out in 1:15/1:30

[mikemca]

Or its a big difference if the horse worked a bullet :59 under a hammerlock then working the same while being hard ridden

[TonyP]

if I look at works most of the time Im more concerned with distance not time, unless of course they did in the normal .12 or better depending on track

[singgooner]

For me, the angle I always target is

1. Blinkers on and last workout = bullet workout
2. Blinkers on and 2nd/3rd after layoff
3. Jockey & Trainer combo - both showing profit on Bris Ultimate PPs.
4. Route & Turf races - Brisnet Ultimate PPs - horse with big late pace adv (final column at the bottom).
5. Avoid favourites with outside draw i.e. drawn 6+ !

[singgooner]

Sorry, I forgot a better No. 5 handicapping tip - Debutant - 1st time starters that are backed down to favourite - always love these - someone knows something good and they are backing their bollocks on it, as they know it will run well.

As long as I get a good run for my money - you are in with a chance.

[str]

Good stuff so far,

Str you raise an interesting point. I am newer to the site and not sure how to look up post number #5. In a situation where you are having trouble deciding between two horses would you compare workouts to decide?

Str, also what do you consider the most important couple of things when picking races?

1. Str you raise an interesting point. I am newer to the site and not sure how to look up post number #5.

I have a questions and answers thread in the horse racing forum. I have answered many questions within it. Post # 5 within that thread will shed some more light on workouts.

2. In a situation where you are having trouble deciding between two horses would you compare workouts to decide?

I would not consider workouts in trying to decide between 2 horses unless they had worked together and I had seen it or had clocker's notes that Mike mentioned.

3. Str, also what do you consider the most important couple of things when picking races?

In no order they would be:
1. Race shape (pace)
2. Competition between each other and why the previous result occurred.
3. Any changes( equipment, drugs, trainer, jockey, surface condition( fast, muddy, etc.) and I would consider if a particular horse or horses had an obvious liking for the particular track (horses for courses angle)
4. Layoffs
5. Bias (if any)
6. odds
7. Appearance on the track if you were able to see them and you had previously seen them warm up so you had something to compare to.

[str]

if I look at works most of the time Im more concerned with distance not time, unless of course they did in the normal .12 or better depending on track

This part of looking at works makes perfect sense IMO.

[str]

Basically if you are going to factor in workouts you need to get workout reports from the clockers that tell you how the horse did it rather than just depending on the final time.Often a horses workout will look like a slow 5/8ths in 1:03 but a clocker would report that the horse just galloped for the first 3/8ths then flew home and had a strong gallop out in 1:15/1:30

Absolutely Mike. I completely agree.