This game comes down to percentages. Let me show you a quick example...
Let's use race 2 at Philly today.
5000Nw2
non winners of 2 races
We are gonna use the Jockeys life time percentages, Trainer's lifetime percentage, Horses lifetime win percentage. and divide them by 3.
1. 4% 4% 1-29 = 6.3% Final Odds 40-1 this horse will win every 16.6 races. Which equals a+23.4 odds return
2. 15% 10% 1-11 = 11.6% Final odds 10-1 This horse will win about every 8.6 races. Which equals a +1.4 odds return
3. 11% 8% 1-13 = 8.6% Final odds 45-1 This horse will win about every 11.6 races. Which equals a +33.4 odds return
4. 11% 11% 1-11 = 10.3% Final odds 5-2 This horse will win about every 9.7 races. Which equals a -7.2 odds return
As you can see betting long shots you will get a positive return on your odds. And betting the favorite you get a negative return on your odds. So it makes sense to bet on long shots. But I don't recommend betting on every 45-1 shot. This particular race had an 11 horse field. So before the race starts you will only win 1-11 races if all horses where equal. And for the most part, that is the case. If you have noticed this race is a non winners of 2 race. With the competition being very equal. So in these types of races, with a big field. It might not be a bad idea to bet on a long shot.
If you also look at the example above. Look at the comparison between the 2 horse and the 4 horse. The 2 horse has odds of 10-1. And the 4 horse has odds of 5-2. And looking at the final percentage's. The 2 horse has a better chance of winning.
Of course in this race. Non of the examples I gave actually won the race. Over time you will make a small profit.
This system works well with races like these. such as non winners of 2-3-4 etc. etc. because of the evenly matched field.
I hope this can help some people. And remember to have a big bankroll before attempting to bet only on long shots~
Let's use race 2 at Philly today.
5000Nw2
non winners of 2 races
We are gonna use the Jockeys life time percentages, Trainer's lifetime percentage, Horses lifetime win percentage. and divide them by 3.
1. 4% 4% 1-29 = 6.3% Final Odds 40-1 this horse will win every 16.6 races. Which equals a+23.4 odds return
2. 15% 10% 1-11 = 11.6% Final odds 10-1 This horse will win about every 8.6 races. Which equals a +1.4 odds return
3. 11% 8% 1-13 = 8.6% Final odds 45-1 This horse will win about every 11.6 races. Which equals a +33.4 odds return
4. 11% 11% 1-11 = 10.3% Final odds 5-2 This horse will win about every 9.7 races. Which equals a -7.2 odds return
As you can see betting long shots you will get a positive return on your odds. And betting the favorite you get a negative return on your odds. So it makes sense to bet on long shots. But I don't recommend betting on every 45-1 shot. This particular race had an 11 horse field. So before the race starts you will only win 1-11 races if all horses where equal. And for the most part, that is the case. If you have noticed this race is a non winners of 2 race. With the competition being very equal. So in these types of races, with a big field. It might not be a bad idea to bet on a long shot.
If you also look at the example above. Look at the comparison between the 2 horse and the 4 horse. The 2 horse has odds of 10-1. And the 4 horse has odds of 5-2. And looking at the final percentage's. The 2 horse has a better chance of winning.
Of course in this race. Non of the examples I gave actually won the race. Over time you will make a small profit.
This system works well with races like these. such as non winners of 2-3-4 etc. etc. because of the evenly matched field.
I hope this can help some people. And remember to have a big bankroll before attempting to bet only on long shots~