5 Horsemen handicapping strategies

[runner5k]

Hey guys
I havent heard anything from Rio so we might need to grab another 5th! I've also been thinking about Mike's strategy of us all taking the same picks and hoping to go 3-0 and at worse 2-1. There is nothing from what I read in the rules about us being DQ'd for the same picks etc so we should be good to go if we go that route.
The downside to it is that if 1 pick loses at best we go 10-5. Maybe we could try a trial 2 weeks of individual picks on week and all same the other and see what we think?
Any thoughts from anyone else or mike care to expand any?

Lets kick some ass!

[mikemca]

I see it as pretty simple that when given a 50/50 proposition ,most times at -$55 , the less picks you have to make the better.I don't see how sbr could object when making the minimum amount of picks is available to all teams.Its not like we have an edge that no other team has access to.However it does give us an edge against teams that do decide to pick 15 different games.Picking 15 games there is almost no chance at all of going 15-0 but only picking 3 makes it much more attainable.Its up to you guys but I don't really see the argument for picking any more than we have to unless we are just playing for fun.That is fine with me also if everyone just wants to make 3 picks a week for the fun of it.

[mikemca]

If we all agree on the minimum I guess we could just list our picks and see if any match up or we could just rotate either 3 players get 1 pick a week or 1 player makes all 3 picks for the week.I like Minnesota Vikings at home +3.5 the most.Detroit sucks against the run and they are going to have to stop the best RB in the league.That will also keep the Lions passing game off the field.

Others in the NFL I like in order
Oakland Raiders +3.5
Miami Dolphins +3
Chicago Bears +3.5
Buffalo Bills +9
Carolina Panthers -3

In College these are my favorite plays
Clemson --(pk)
Kansas St--(+12)
Arizona St--(-2.5)
Mississippi--(+10)

[hawkwind]

If you are down one & need a standby, I'm willing. Regards & GL in the contest

[runner5k]

Thanks Hawk but Rio is in!
Mike I agree less picks is best I never bet more than 5-6 games a week anyway. I have not fully looked at all of the games yet but Vikings plus the points I like a lot!

[zebra58]

at first i also thought mike had a great plan but too many pitfalls we could go 3-0 wk1 & 0-3 wk2, there's no real advantage w/this & sbr knows this or else they wouldn't allow it in the contest

[robdel]

Good luck in your contest, guys. I will watch your picks and see how you are doing.

Note: after Week 2, 74% of games have gone over the total. Will the bookmakers make the necessary adjustments in the totals? We will see.

[mikemca]

I'll try to explain again...If we are trying to win the contest then it is best to put all our eggs in one basket and get max value,not just in the contest but betting any spread sport in general .Of course we can go 0-3 but that means we didn't do good and if we don't do good we aren't going to win regardless.Making only 3 picks gives us a chance to go 15-0 once in a while and 10-5 with some regularity where making 15 picks the odds are astronomical of us going 15-0 and remote that we will go 10-5 regularly.Go ask any bookie you can find if they would rather you make 3 bets for 5 units or 15 bets for 1 unit.They will gladly take your juice on the 15 bets and watch as you try to break even every week.

[runner5k]

I do not think even half of the teams will finish in the positive in units so a couple of 3-0 weeks and we should be right up top. However how are we going to agree on the top 3 plays?

[mikemca]

I was thinking we rotate 1 pick for 3 players.We can have a random draw for the sequence of players but it would go

Week 1--PlayerA/PlayerB/PlayerC
Week 2--PlayerD/PlayerE/PlayerA
Week 3--PlayerB/PlayerC/PlayerD
Week 4--PlayerE/PlayerA/PlayerB
Week 5--PlayerC/PlayerD/PlayerE


Or we could just all agree on 3 plays

[mikemca]

Minnesota +3.5
Oakland Raiders +3.5
Miami Dolphins +3
Chicago Bears +3.5
Buffalo Bills +9
Carolina Panthers -3
In College these are my favorite plays
Clemson --(pk)
Kansas St--(+12)
Arizona St--(-2.5)
Mississippi--(+10)

Or we could rotate one player each week making a list like this and then we vote on which plays we want to use

[runner5k]

I think we should get everyone's likes each week instead of just me saying ok for my pick this week lets take carolina -3 etc. If we all like some plays would make it easier to pick then in case some of us disagree on 1 of the guys picks for that week

[zebra58]

guess i'm just too confident in our team, esp since this being a 9-12 week contest the winning team could end w/a 12/3 weekly avg at best, i think this method falls short of that, just my opinion

do the other 2 players agree w/3 teams?

[zebra58]

If you are down one & need a standby, I'm willing. Regards & GL in the contest

hawk per lous post the teams are locked, you can sign on as a free agent & pick up a team still 2 weeks

[TonyP]

It does not matter to me how we get the picks.

[mikemca]

guess i'm just too confident in our team, esp since this being a 9-12 week contest the winning team could end w/a 12/3 weekly avg at best, i think this method falls short of that, just my opinion do the other 2 players agree w/3 teams?

You keep saying the method falls short or there are too many pitfalls but don't say why.I'm trying to understand but I don't see why or how you can think making 15 picks is better than 3.It doesn't matter how good or confident our team is , you could partner up with the 4 best handicappers on the planet and not go 12-3 more than once or twice making 15 different picks.

I'm not trying to be stubborn if you don't want to do it that is fine we can all just make our 3 picks.In fact we are probably better off just doing that if everyone doesn't see eye to eye.

I would bet a gazillion dollars that at the end no one averages 12-3.

[runner5k]

Maybe to meet in the middle we find 1 or 2 plays that we all agree on! Like I think both mike and I really like Vikings etc. Agreeing on 1 pick is like 5 and if we agree on 2 that's 10. So we would never have 15 completely different picks but maybe 5 or 10. I know that most gamblers think 60 percent is amazing so getting 8 or 9 right a week will probably put team at the top

[zebra58]

team contest i guess, my leans are

ark+12
nfl houston/norleans under 53.5

just post or send p.m when 3 teams together

[zebra58]

I think we should get everyone's likes each week instead of just me saying ok for my pick this week lets take carolina -3 etc. If we all like some plays would make it easier to pick then in case some of us disagree on 1 of the guys picks for that week

from mikes list i vote for the miami dolphins

[TonyP]

can we put picks in anytime before the game? Whats up with the Okie State line??

[runner5k]

Yes you can put in picks right up to game time!
Yeah that OK state line screams stay away to me or at least begging for Ok state money!

On NCAA i like LSU -5.5 and Oregon -15.5.
I had like clemson at pickem but now its -2.5 and even though FSU has never won at clemson since 2001 I find it a little too close to call.

[zebra58]

s miss/virg under 52

[zebra58]

maybe next week we should rotate each player pick 1 game or i'll go w/whatever you guys decide

[mikemca]

After watching the line movements and money flow .

Clemson
Vikings
Mississippi

are the 3 that stand out to me.Despite all the money going to the other side of those games the lines have moved as if they were the ones taking the money.To me that says the books want all the money they can get on Florida St,Georgia, and Lions.Clemson and Vikings would be the strongest plays for me.

I think my 3 picks would be

Clemson
Vikings

and then either
Mississippi
Arizona St
Dolphins

I don't know why but I keep going back to the Jaguars .Carolina seems like they should be -7.5 .

[mikemca]

If you didn't notice my favorite bets are home dogs.

[TonyP]

not sold on the vikings

[TonyP]

what are we going to play this week?? are we waiting to see line movements or are we going to post plays now??

[zebra58]

tony or rio what teams do you guys like?

[zebra58]

guess a case can be made for all the pks we posted, hope we get lucky

just send me p.m when you have 3

[TonyP]

I wait and look tonight and in the morning for Saturdays games

[TonyP]

Does the team captain make the picks or do we make the picks individualy

[runner5k]

You each make your picks individually. Go to the contest link and click on the team contest and make picks! There is a tab for nfl and a tab for ncaa.

I suggest waiting till the day of to make the pics because at least in my case usually the line gets better closer to the game.
I'm really like miami and minn but want to get an extra half point to feel better

[mikemca]

We should go with Miami Dolphins,Minnesota Vikings, and Clemson Tigers.

[zebra58]

guess miami & minn are 2 though tony has doubts on minni, nfl is tuff

[zebra58]

i'd be more confident w/ncaa but nfl will do

you guys don't like my 3 plays? lol