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[QUOTE=JBEX;31332204]Because I am always able to find the problem with almost everything, Lolol, The race is light on pace now and I would not be surprised if the favorite is not very close up early. I hope this does not mess up Deterministic's rating ability although I do not expect anyone to be well back early. Just don't want to see him grab the bit and try to run off.
Probably play a rooting interest type play but not what I was looking for. Gotta love Irad getting the lone speed unless someone moves to pressure him. So a small straight exacta will work but just to say I played it. I can't get serious with all the guess work on pace and maybe on surface. I have not seen any turf races today if there has been any. Unable to watch but will look at replays tonight or in the morning.
Also, funny pace makes others do different things as well. If he stays within himself , he could win. Still have plenty of faith in him.
That's my take. GL JBEX, if you play and everyone else as well.Comment -
[QUOTE=str;31332259]
thanks str
I think the favorite will be forced to be aggressive early here and should allow DM to settle in to a nice position..not impossible in the small field that if the fav (1) isn't aggressive that DM might be and pressing is something that would be new to him ..I agree the pace is certainly not a clear scenario but my first guess would be It'll be a favorable one for DM .. be a great stepping stone forward and hopefully things unfold well and he's up to itComment -
good trip ..maybe gave up and extra length or two to the winner on the turn (final margin 1.5)..I think a big part is less experience in general ,going that far and vs that level of competition .. distance obviously not a problem and ultimately he might be more of a marathoner (10f+)..overall not a bad effort
could see trying that race but ,as I mentioned before, I think he'll show up in allowance race back at aqueduct..a win vs inferior competition would serve him well for experience and confidence
.Last edited by JBEX; 08-11-24, 10:50 PM.Comment -
keeneland fall meet would be good timing also and my guess is he'd have at least 2 options there..3yo stakes or an allowance race..former ideally would be listed or grade 3 ..wouldn't throw him to the wolves againComment -
[QUOTE=str;31332259][QUOTE=JBEX;31332270]The two bolded sentences kind of says what I am going to.
Just don't want to see him grab the bit and try to run off.
This is exactly what he did. Not leaving the gate but after maybe 10 seconds. Look at the other riders with various forms of the reins at least somewhat slacked. Everyone is getting into the flow of the racer. But not Deterministic. You can see it in his face that he wants to run forward, not considering to settle early on. Those reigns are tighter than everyone else's until about half way around the turn. Then, he starts to settle. Now that is not a deal breaker but... it is giving up precious energy that will be lacking latter on against top quality horses. If this is a n/w allowance race, it would not matter. His ability would be dominate. But in here, he can't do that IMO.
But he does come back to the rider and we did not even see that, several starts ago. So there IS progress, it is just slow to come so far, again, IMO.
He is fine down the backside but as the 4 horse comes up from inside Deterministic does not find that little 1/2 gear to keep him pinned. He needs to do that IMO. Was that the riders fault? I don't think so, especially that rider. Guy is great. So, he will be parked and widest. Not the end of the world but he needs to be like a push button response from here out to make up for that small hiccup around the turn. But that is 2 hiccups now.
So just as they swing for home he is widest but does have a clear run. The rider quickly hits him right handed but I did not really see any response. Don't think I missed it but whatever. Don't get me wrong, he is running but certainly not in push button fashion. So he switches leads just fine, and the jockey shows him the sticks, and then hits him again. This time, Deterministic gets it. He immediately finds that final gear and from there, he finishes well. But he did not lose the race at the wire, IMO he lost the race around the 1st turn and the middle to end portion of the far turn. And it is not the turns that are creating this, I truly feel it is Deterministic thinking on his own instead of working in sync with the rider and understanding what is asked and when.
This is fairly similar to KB. Different but the same area of problem IMO. It is not a Z pattern you will see in the form but it WAS a Z pattern between his ears. And that is where the energy gets wasted or used at the wrong times is what I am determining.
Does Clement and Rosario know this? Of course. They are all over this. Those guys are as sharp as you get.
So what do they do? Keep working on it. With every gallop, work, everything. I think this horse has untapped ability , similar to KB, that will show through as he matures. Once we see it once, it most likely will continue.
Question: 5-2?? What am I missing. Why is he so clearly better than everyone else but the favorite? At this point he is not. That's because he has not quite figured all this out yet. And that happens. I knew a kid who took swimming lessons and failed the first step of nine steps to being a lifeguard like 4-5 times before he could put it together. But once he did, he blew through the rest of the courses and was eligible to be a lifeguard at 15 but you had to be 16 to do that. So, some people and horses just take a little longer to get the basics down. But once they do, look out. That was KB and I think that that is Deterministic as well. As Kung Foo said, patience Grasshopper.
He will get there JBEX. No doubt he can run.
Frustrating race to watch but really cool to see this horse slowly but surely improving. Just not fast enough for us, but it's coming , IMO.
.I agree the pace is certainly not a clear scenario but my first guess would be It'll be a favorable one for DM
This was a real good handicapping observation on your part JBEX... Really good. That can be difficult to come up with when on paper the race sets up the way it did. Well done.Comment -
watched again and see what you're saying about him not relaxing or taking cues from the rosario going into the 1st turn ..I think if I had watched a little more carefully I could've made this observation..still at the point where I like to notice these things as obviously I'm not as
accustomed to looking for them as you.. understand that it's wasted energy which can be costly at the end
so you feel carson's run going inside of him prior going into the far turn was costly .. looks like DM could've had the rail prior to that but guess what you're saying is he should've gotten closer to it and made CR go outside of him instead .. which would require a little acceleration in the moment which maybe isn't a strong point
of his .. I'm thinking if DM and CR each had the other's trip (forgetting about DM not relaxing early) than it's quite possible he might've won that race ..have to figure being further outside cost him a length or two also
still a little green .. if he can learn the lessons in training and more importantly on the track I agree there's potential for him to be a very solid turf horse..be nice if he could notch an allowance win at aqu or kee in his next start..if it's the latter (or maybe even the former) could see clement giving him a rest till gulfstream winter meet..we'll both be interested in seeing if he can make the needed adjustments to become a top runner
I'll say in advance,if he does get it together on the turf I hope somewhere down the road they run him on the dirt again..I'd like to see a grade stakes win at 2 turns (if capable) to cap off his career
I do agree at this point 5-2 on him was a big underlay
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It takes years of observation to see this stuff. Make that decades. Believe me, you're doing great seeing this stuff.
By not responding as he should have, Carson's run got the jump on him around the turn and instead of Deterministic having the position advantage by controlling the back of the pack with room where to go, the horse, not the rider, let Carson's Run gain that position advantage.
From that point on, Carsons Run had the position and dictated where Deterministic had to go. Again, that was on the horse, not Rosario.
Can't say for sure but it is safe to assume he would have been right there.
I think winning, and winning the right way, does wonders for a horse. He most likely will not put it all together in one race, it will take a few. Very similar to KB and how he came back with one solid effort after another.
He is closer to putting it together now than he ever has been. Just needs to mature I think.
Good job JBEX.Comment -
thanks str
an auto nomination to the cox plate (g1 @ 10f turf) was at stake also in that race ..clement can go anyway with carson's run if he wants to ..end of october at melbourne race course in Australia..$5M purse
be an interesting choice between that and the breeders cup..make going to dubai seem like a short hop
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thanks str
an auto nomination to the cox plate (g1 @ 10f turf) was at stake also in that race ..clement can go anyway with carson's run if he wants to ..end of october at melbourne race course in Australia..$5M purse
be an interesting choice between that and the breeders cup..make going to dubai seem like a short hop
think "berth" is the proper term.. can run if they want to..can't see that horse up against
an international group 1 field of 3 up @ about the same distance
.Last edited by JBEX; 08-13-24, 07:51 PM.Comment -
Berth, auto entry, whatever. I guess this would be somewhere around the 6th or 7th best up to the 15th or so, assuming the top horses and a few other would be pointing for the BC the next week. But still, sounds like a pretty steep mountain to climb and a long way to go to climb it. And, olders. Ouch. Seems like a tall order.Comment -
you agree with me on that ..I can't see sending this horse 1.5 miles in the bc turf and the turf mile also a tough race..besides the trip (no small consideration..although a lot if not all travel expenses are covered by australian racing)..the 10f would probably
be more to his liking .. this is the race the great "winx" won 4 times in a row 5 years ago..outside of going to the bc wonder if the host would be upset if he decided not to go ? might be the first year this was offered and read nyra is real happy with the international associationComment -
one other side note..not surprisingly winx dam sire is an is from new zealand but two generations back in the male line is "hold your peace"..remember seeing him listed as a sire a lot back in the 80's just when I was started to get interested in pedigrees..he's part of the class of 69 which we discussed recently had roberto and halo..following year secretariat and mr prospector..amazing how much influence those 5 had in two years time ..the breed would be much weaker for sure !! I'm guessing you remember HYP as being a sire ..possibly even as a racehorse ?Comment -
Think you guys for following this one.Comment -
realize KB news dominates but the blue hen stakes for 2yo (probably know of it) @ del is well represented with a lot of your old friends horses
it's at 3pm .. just figure you might want to take a peek afterwardsComment -
This is the politics side that fans do not see. Yes, they will be upset and NY could apply some pressure to go there being as this was the 1st year, (I guess), of the auto invite.
Behind the scenes stuff that maybe forces a trainers hand sometimes.
No clue if that would matter to Clement, but, it will matter to NY I would have to think. And saying no might make the boss, NYRA, a little hot, you know what I mean?
That can be tricky sometimes.Comment -
Thanks for the link Jelly. Appreciate it.
Certainly not good news. I was so impressed with KB's last race, from the mental side, that I was really looking forward to a repeat performance from him mentally. If, and we will never know, he did that again, I'm not sure who was going to beat him moving forward. He was most likely going to improve more in his next two races but like I said, we will never know. Just one funny step is all it takes.
On the bright side, the pulling that ligament issue, probably the suspensory, while he will limp some for maybe 4-5 days, and maybe less, while hand walking, which can be made much better easily, with pain meds, within about two weeks in all probability (having not even seen it), he will be about 90% or even 95% sound with no meds as long as he does not run around. So he will be comfortable. This is not at all life threatening as it is explained. The pain meds will even him out weight distribution wise so you take away 99% of the foundering from lameness worry. All in all, if you are going to hurt yourself, this is probably the safest and least painful way to do it. So there's that.
Still, a real bummer to hear. This is why trainers hate to get too far ahead of themselves with a running horse. One race at a time and go from there. Ugh. It hurts for me to think about, bad memories, and mine were claimers or allowance horses. Not that that really mattered. They were all competitors that ran their asses off for us. I just keep shaking my head when I think about it. Dammit.Comment -
really does suck as ,like you, wanted to see if he could keep the good run going in the big upcoming races .. but at the same time glad he won't be suffering any significant discomfort ..was fun following his path the past couple of years and you provided some great insight along the way..made it a lot more interesting than it would have been otherwise and appreciate you doing it
will be really interested to see what his starting fee will be and guess something like that might not be decided till later this year
..I'll take a crack at it and say $50k ..if he had run the table in his next two races (latter possibly the bc classic) maybe 75-100k ..look forward (before they race as 2yo's) to see how they sell at the sales but that's 3 and 4 years away
side note..army mule filly went for $300k at the saratoga sale 10 days ago ..won't see the $12.5k fee 2yo's till 2026 ..have a hunch they may do well..$25k's year after thatComment -
speaking of army mule there's one in R9 @ the spa..mentioned him last start I believe and factoring monster odds think he's interesting
#4 ferris muler (20-1) @ 5:45
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I enjoy this thread because of things like you guys following KB as I learn a lot through your conversations. I'm sure others do as well.Comment -
thanks for the good word jelly..
have learned a lot along the way from str covering KB and thought it was a fun exercise besides .. you kind of look at the game from the connections perspective rather than capping an individual race ..although betting opportunities do happen along the way
have high hopes for the other two we're following and think one other "headline numbers" will be a real good one also..she'll probably be running again soon ..cat's out of the bag with the way she broke her maiden so it's more of a "see if she develops into a good one" kind of thing ..besides the obvious .. trained by chad brown and has a great pedigreeComment -
just want to say with KB DM and WR that str watched the replay of their debuts and agreed they were good follows ..haven't heard unless I'm forgetting lol about HN (headline numbers) so don't want to put him on something without him saying so..the big difference with HN vs the other 3 is she had a flashy,big margin win in her debut..not true of the others (KB and DM won while WR was a close 3rd)
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