Horse Racing questions and answers

[Easy-Rider 66]

Checked ny email and still have report. That's what he wrote for that topic in entirety and then drifted in to something else about his pick that race.

[str]

OK Thx STR. Yeah shades off is pretty popular thses days at times. As for the dirt/truf speed that is a statment from the East Coast Handicapping Report. I deleted the report, but that is a copy and paste of what he wrote. Look forward to your take. A trainers perspective.

As a general, but super sharp rule of thumb - sharp
speed on the main track, usually is even more pronounced on the turf, while the
opposite is often not the case.

Ok, here's how I see it Easy.

Sharp speed on the main is MORE sharp on the turf. If that is what they are saying, I can not agree as a whole. Here is why.

Sharp speed too me, is a real fast horse. Why are they faster when they go on turf? In my opinion, they are not. But a couple of things here. The field size is probably larger on turf, so maybe the horse needs to be used more because there are more speed horses in the larger field.
If it's times they are referring to, without runup info there is no way to tell. Now, if a horse loves turf and shows less speed on dirt, that can be the footing, bad feet which is why quite a few horses DO like turf more than dirt, or other factors. But when they flip the statement and say fast horses on dirt show MORE speed on turf, the only way I feel that could be right is if it is because they are more comfortable on grass or they need to show more to be in front.
I think without seeing the encouragement of the rider, the action of the horse, the runup difference and things like that, it seems to me that that information is useless. Maybe I am overthinking it, but the statement made me shake my head the 1st time I read it because it's like, ok, now what. It tells me nothing about if the horse will be there in the end. And if it actually means they expend MORE energy to be in front early on turf, that should equate to less energy left when it matters right?

So right or wrong, I do not see much value in the statement unless there is a theory with it that explains why it is important to use as a handicapping tool.

Just to be clear, I claimed a horse that had speed on dirt named Lord Mahlon once for about 10k. Put him on grass and he became real fast, and really improved. But it was not any mystery why. He had terrible feet, had obviously foundered somewhere along the line and loved the softer footing. We did great with him. So technically , the statement was correct but the reason was because he was a 10k claimer on dirt and an allowance horse on grass.
Hope all that makes sense Easy.

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR THx for the take. I will be looking for these situations, and try to get a feel for how right the staement may be. Right now I lean toward the trainer's view.

[str]

OK STR THx for the take. I will be looking for these situations, and try to get a feel for how right the staement may be. Right now I lean toward the trainer's view.

Even if it is right, I just don't know how good that info is. Can't see what it will tell you that you already didn't know.

Let me know though.
Thanks Easy.

[JBEX]

hey str


lacey is running another one tomorrow in a 2yo msw at saratoga tomorrow (R5 #2 ain't none lucky 5-1) ..like the horse on quite a few angles including a well above avg mud pedigree ...that's what it figures to be up there tomorrow according to the forecast ..2nd time starter and finished 3rd in her debut out of a very fast figure msw race at laurel..local maryland jock who rode her in debut comes up to ride


last workout was 4f on saturday at laurel if that means anything

[Easy-Rider 66]

STR: One more question for now. In a general sense what do you consider a suspicious drop in class? With the Brisnet PP's they make mention of that at times. Thx.

[str]

hey str


lacey is running another one tomorrow in a 2yo msw at saratoga tomorrow (R5 #2 ain't none lucky 5-1) ..like the horse on quite a few angles including a well above avg mud pedigree ...that's what it figures to be up there tomorrow according to the forecast ..2nd time starter and finished 3rd in her debut out of a very fast figure msw race at laurel..local maryland jock who rode her in debut comes up to ride


last workout was 4f on saturday at laurel if that means anything

A 4F work 5 days before is right on schedule.

Without seeing the field, typically a Saratoga MSW for babies should be 5-8 lengths better than a Laurel MSW but that is an average not this exact race.

Be interesting to see how she does. I normally try and make a case for an outer post if the baby race is 5F or 5 1/2 F but that is just how I approach it going in. If she looks superior, I wouldn't necessarily toss her because of the 2 post but if she had the outside post, I would love it.
The Gaudet family was certainly a part of my past as you know, so always rooting for them.
Hope she runs well.
Good luck JBEX and thanks for the heads up.

[str]

STR: One more question for now. In a general sense what do you consider a suspicious drop in class? With the Brisnet PP's they make mention of that at times. Thx.

A drop off of a decent or better effort last out.

A drop that does not appear on paper to be necessary to compete, win or at least hit the board.

Gotta be careful though as sometimes what appears to be a drop isn't what it looks like. For instance, in the late spring around May of each year, the condition allowance races will flip from 4 and up to 3 and up. When that happens, a 3 year old 2 other than is probably valued that time of year at 50-75K or more. An older 2 other than is probably valued at about 15K- 18K. ( These are Maryland values not NY).
So when the olders bail out in May and run for that price after say finishing 3rd or 4th in the 2ot allowance last time , that is NOT a suspicious drop, that is a reasonable placement by the trainer. But let's say it runs 2nd for 15K and runs back for 10k, that IS a suspicious drop. If fronts are added for a suspicious drop, that makes it a VERY suspicious drop.
Not sure the form will understand the difference or not. Maybe they do, but it would surprise me in a good way if they did.

If you have any specific scenarios in mind, please let me know. Happy to help you with that anytime Easy.

[Easy-Rider 66]

A drop off of a decent or better effort last out.

A drop that does not appear on paper to be necessary to compete, win or at least hit the board.

Gotta be careful though as sometimes what appears to be a drop isn't what it looks like. For instance, in the late spring around May of each year, the condition allowance races will flip from 4 and up to 3 and up. When that happens, a 3 year old 2 other than is probably valued that time of year at 50-75K or more. An older 2 other than is probably valued at about 15K- 18K. ( These are Maryland values not NY).
So when the olders bail out in May and run for that price after say finishing 3rd or 4th in the 2ot allowance last time , that is NOT a suspicious drop, that is a reasonable placement by the trainer. But let's say it runs 2nd for 15K and runs back for 10k, that IS a suspicious drop. If fronts are added for a suspicious drop, that makes it a VERY suspicious drop.
Not sure the form will understand the difference or not. Maybe they do, but it would surprise me in a good way if they did.

If you have any specific scenarios in mind, please let me know. Happy to help you with that anytime Easy.

OK Thx STR. Still trying to learn more about trainer intentions. Not up to speed on that part of game like you of course and Mr. G&T/JBEX. That ECHR I talked to you about is heavy on trainer moves, and placement. Will hit you back if I come across a particular scenario.

[str]

OK Thx STR. Still trying to learn more about trainer intentions. Not up to speed on that part of game like you of course and Mr. G&T/JBEX. That ECHR I talked to you about is heavy on trainer moves, and placement. Will hit you back if I come across a particular scenario.

Trainer tendencies with claimers is really important to have a handle on if it is possible.

Doing multiple tracks makes it tough so it might be too difficult to try and monitor.

Rule of thumb is larger stables will drop to win more often than smaller stables will. So seeing a larger stable do it is not of the same concern that a small stable doing it is.
Hope that makes sense.

[JBEX]

Trainer tendencies with claimers is really important to have a handle on if it is possible.

Doing multiple tracks makes it tough so it might be too difficult to try and monitor.

Rule of thumb is larger stables will drop to win more often than smaller stables will. So seeing a larger stable do it is not of the same concern that a small stable doing it is.
Hope that makes sense.

have looked at it this way for a long time.. when todd and chad do it I usually feel that the horse is up to where he's placed.. the big bucks clients I don't think are worried about losing horses for 10-15k below what they are worth just to unload them..and if you're gonna do that what better place to win than saratoga

[Easy-Rider 66]

Trainer tendencies with claimers is really important to have a handle on if it is possible.

Doing multiple tracks makes it tough so it might be too difficult to try and monitor.

Rule of thumb is larger stables will drop to win more often than smaller stables will. So seeing a larger stable do it is not of the same concern that a small stable doing it is.
Hope that makes sense.

OK STR. appreciate that. Yeah weakest part of my game I believe. Need to keep learning. May hit you back in the future.

[JBEX]

A 4F work 5 days before is right on schedule.

Without seeing the field, typically a Saratoga MSW for babies should be 5-8 lengths better than a Laurel MSW but that is an average not this exact race.

Be interesting to see how she does. I normally try and make a case for an outer post if the baby race is 5F or 5 1/2 F but that is just how I approach it going in. If she looks superior, I wouldn't necessarily toss her because of the 2 post but if she had the outside post, I would love it.
The Gaudet family was certainly a part of my past as you know, so always rooting for them.
Hope she runs well.
Good luck JBEX and thanks for the heads up.

np str.. well I'm guessing you saw that she came in 2nd.. nice payday with the saratoga purse.. not that there's any rush to run her back quick
but looked at the laurel condition book index which appears to go through the end of july... there's a msw for 2yo colts on july 28 (nothing for fillies) ..you think if she came out of the race good and factoring in that she did do this at saratoga that lacey might consider trying the boys in that race.. is it realistic in some circumstances to wheel a 2yo back to run again in 10-14 days?

[str]

np str.. well I'm guessing you saw that she came in 2nd.. nice payday with the saratoga purse.. not that there's any rush to run her back quick
but looked at the laurel condition book index which appears to go through the end of july... there's a msw for 2yo colts on july 28 (nothing for fillies) ..you think if she came out of the race good and factoring in that she did do this at saratoga that lacey might consider trying the boys in that race.. is it realistic in some circumstances to wheel a 2yo back to run again in 10-14 days?

Q. looked at the laurel condition book index which appears to go through the end of july... there's a msw for 2yo colts on july 28 (nothing for fillies) ..you think if she came out of the race good and factoring in that she did do this at saratoga that lacey might consider trying the boys in that race.


A. Assuming she comes out of the race fine, No, I would be very surprised ( but been surprised before Lol) if she would run back at Laurel against boys. There is no rush to do that.

I have to think that the idea of running back in the same race at Saratoga is the prime choice. That family has never been shy about shipping upstate so I don't know why she wouldn't run back there. They have not nearly as much to lose vs. what they have to gain.

If she can't win next out at Saratoga, she would be 3-5 at Laurel in September. But if she can run well or win at Saratoga, things can happen. Such as, somebody offers her a lot more money for the horse to buy privately than she would be offered off a win at Laurel. Not that she would sell, as they usually do not, but I do not know the owner situation so a lot depends on that.

But don't think that Stake races are not entering in to her mind as well. That happens with babies. Dreams are free and most young trainers can dream big when it comes to a baby. Her mom Linda will try and help keep her grounded on that somewhat .
If Md. bred, the Md. million fillies will certainly be in the mix . Usually runs in late Sept. ( see how we can get ahead of ourselves with babies Lol).
So, run her again at Saratoga, hopefully win, and run back in the Md. Million (if eligible). Think that race is still 7/8ths so running 3/4's at the Spa might be the play. But without a full understanding of the horse, her eligibility, etc. I'm just guessing.
Please keep me posted.
Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

Q. looked at the laurel condition book index which appears to go through the end of july... there's a msw for 2yo colts on july 28 (nothing for fillies) ..you think if she came out of the race good and factoring in that she did do this at saratoga that lacey might consider trying the boys in that race.


A. Assuming she comes out of the race fine, No, I would be very surprised ( but been surprised before Lol) if she would run back at Laurel against boys. There is no rush to do that.

I have to think that the idea of running back in the same race at Saratoga is the prime choice. That family has never been shy about shipping upstate so I don't know why she wouldn't run back there. They have not nearly as much to lose vs. what they have to gain.

If she can't win next out at Saratoga, she would be 3-5 at Laurel in September. But if she can run well or win at Saratoga, things can happen. Such as, somebody offers her a lot more money for the horse to buy privately than she would be offered off a win at Laurel. Not that she would sell, as they usually do not, but I do not know the owner situation so a lot depends on that.

But don't think that Stake races are not entering in to her mind as well. That happens with babies. Dreams are free and most young trainers can dream big when it comes to a baby. Her mom Linda will try and help keep her grounded on that somewhat .
If Md. bred, the Md. million fillies will certainly be in the mix . Usually runs in late Sept. ( see how we can get ahead of ourselves with babies Lol).
So, run her again at Saratoga, hopefully win, and run back in the Md. Million (if eligible). Think that race is still 7/8ths so running 3/4's at the Spa might be the play. But without a full understanding of the horse, her eligibility, etc. I'm just guessing.
Please keep me posted.
Thanks JBEX.

np str.. if I see her running I'll let you know.. given up on stable alerts as I just can't seem to get that to work for me anymore..maybe harthebar could jot this one down.. couple of other things of note with her

..purchased for $27k at october FTM (guess that's fasig tipton something)
.. a kentucky bred by elite sire candy ride ($80k)
.. there was not one horse that cost over $50k in that race.. that's a rarity up there

[Easy-Rider 66]

STR: Have a question on run ups. Woodbine always displays the run up prior to the race. And it looks like it is usually 40 feet. I do not recall many other tracks giving out this info on their live feed. Maybe I am missing it, but if correct do you think the run up should be more transparent. I think you addressed this one time about Gulfstream and you were not happy about it. Thx.

[Easy-Rider 66]

The run ups never changed in Md., Del., C.T. , Penn. Nat., Monmouth to my knowledge. Those tracks, I was well aware of. Can't speak for gulfstream back in the day but pretty sure it has gotten worse in the last few years there. I thought I read that they were changing the location of the finish line to have more desired distances but in doing so screwed up the run up to absurd distances? Calif. racing I never paid any attention to. I always found that my edge on the east coast tracks was worthy of my attention. I never felt I had much of any edge in Calif.
My 2 cents is that with some of the run ups flat out absurd these days, you better know what you are playing into before you play or you will fall into the group of those in pari mutuel that are playing from a disadvantage. It's like moving the rail on the turf all over the place. 0 feet out one day and 30 feet out the next. I think that is risky to play into unless you keep a close eye on that and who other than someone that is on sight or looking for that will follow it every day. And you need to know what it means? Stuff like this is a huge disadvantage for a casual capper. It really is an edge to know all this stuff. And as you know, edges are key to winning in pari mutuel.

Pimlico's was hardly any run up at all going 6F. As a result, 23 was a quick opening quarter mile. At Laurel with a more typical run up that equated to about 22 2/5 opening quarter. All the others I mentioned I am pretty sure are still where they have always been.

Here is the post I found on the run ups. Why does not every track state what it is on their live feed especially if it's a fluid number. ? Or I am missing where to find it. thx.

[mrginandtonic]

Sir STR, just wondering if you saw The Haskell yesterday? Just want to get your thoughts on it? I read a lot of complaints about the jock, Saez L, being a reckless rider. Thanks in advance.

[str]

STR: Have a question on run ups. Woodbine always displays the run up prior to the race. And it looks like it is usually 40 feet. I do not recall many other tracks giving out this info on their live feed. Maybe I am missing it, but if correct do you think the run up should be more transparent. I think you addressed this one time about Gulfstream and you were not happy about it. Thx.

I have no idea where it is posted and why it is not a part of the horses form itself.

Gulfstream has made a mockery of it with some races having over 100 feet of runup for dirt races. What a joke. The turf rail can be 0 feet out or 40 feet out. That is a huge difference.
I don't know how people can go by times without knowing a runup and how far a horse actually has to run in a particular race.

It baffles me Easy.
If you followed the track daily, you would know, but a casual fan, forget it.

I will leave your 2nd post alone so if people did not see my old post, they will have a better understanding of what I had said earlier.

[str]

Sir STR, just wondering if you saw The Haskell yesterday? Just want to get your thoughts on it? I read a lot of complaints about the jock, Saez L, being a reckless rider. Thanks in advance.

It was the 1st thing I thought of when it happened. That kid is indeed riding rough. IMO, too rough.

Back in my time, that would have been straightened out in the jocks room ( he would have gotten his ass kicked), or eventually, on the track, which can be a deadly situation if things don't go as expected.

I saw a brief interview with Johnny V. which only lasted a few seconds because that dumbass Matt whoever on TVG kept trying to sound smart instead of hearing what the rider was saying that got fouled. And yes, it was absolutely a foul. If I train that horse and that rider saws my horse off, either my rider or myself has a chat with MS's jock. I could care less about any Stewards decision. I would have had my own decision. You DON'T do that crap on any horse much less Grade 1 horses.

Saez needs to be tightened up quick. If not, something will get ugly for all to see and that is not the way these things need to be handled.

Takes me back to his Derby ride. It was not the riders fault the horse switched leads in the turn but what he did as they turned for home when he went inward many paths to tighten up the horse on the rail was a red flag. He keeps playing bumper cars out there and somebody will pay a price.

It's not cool at all Mr. GandT.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Tough words STR. Thx for the Luis Saez opinion.

[str]

Tough words STR. Thx for the Luis Saez opinion.

I know, but it is a bad situation.

I am sure that Johnny V. had things to say after the race and in the jocks room.

Hopefully, he stops before it's too late.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I know, but it is a bad situation.

I am sure that Johnny V. had things to say after the race and in the jocks room.

Hopefully, he stops before it's too late.

Yeah I agree. He could get someone really hurt or worse. Someone needs to have a talk with him no doubt.

[mrginandtonic]

It was the 1st thing I thought of when it happened. That kid is indeed riding rough. IMO, too rough.

Back in my time, that would have been straightened out in the jocks room ( he would have gotten his ass kicked), or eventually, on the track, which can be a deadly situation if things don't go as expected.

I saw a brief interview with Johnny V. which only lasted a few seconds because that dumbass Matt whoever on TVG kept trying to sound smart instead of hearing what the rider was saying that got fouled. And yes, it was absolutely a foul. If I train that horse and that rider saws my horse off, either my rider or myself has a chat with MS's jock. I could care less about any Stewards decision. I would have had my own decision. You DON'T do that crap on any horse much less Grade 1 horses.

Saez needs to be tightened up quick. If not, something will get ugly for all to see and that is not the way these things need to be handled.

Takes me back to his Derby ride. It was not the riders fault the horse switched leads in the turn but what he did as they turned for home when he went inward many paths to tighten up the horse on the rail was a red flag. He keeps playing bumper cars out there and somebody will pay a price.

It's not cool at all Mr. GandT.

Thanks for thoughts. My sentiments exactly. I wonder if he will loose his mount on MS? It also makes the Derby DQ more stupid. Anyways, I just hope nothing bad is gonna happened. I like MS as a racehorse and he deserves someone who is smart on him and not a reckless idiot. I think Joe Talamo would fit him better. Thanks again.

[JBEX]

hey str

they did the "born into the game" thing with gabby.. it was a good piece and sure you'd like it.. before her they did scott hazelton which of course they talk about his dad and christina blacker prior to him (think her dad was a jockey).. scott's wound up on their Twitter page (not a Twitter guy) and sure gabby's will eventually..keep you posted if I see it on there or anywhere else


everybody speaks glowingly about richard hazleton as a trainer including Baffert.. knew of the name and that he was an illinois circuit trainer.. lot's of big names say he should be in the hall of fame.. do you have an opinion on that? realize he was a different part of the country than you

[str]

hey str

they did the "born into the game" thing with gabby.. it was a good piece and sure you'd like it.. before her they did scott hazelton which of course they talk about his dad and christina blacker prior to him (think her dad was a jockey).. scott's wound up on their Twitter page (not a Twitter guy) and sure gabby's will eventually..keep you posted if I see it on there or anywhere else


everybody speaks glowingly about richard hazleton as a trainer including Baffert.. knew of the name and that he was an illinois circuit trainer.. lot's of big names say he should be in the hall of fame.. do you have an opinion on that? realize he was a different part of the country than you

If that piece on Gabby surfaces anywhere you know of, please let me know. I would like to see it.

I did not know anyone from the Illinois circuit. So I would have no opinion either way on him. Just never knew him.

My guess would be that if he is close to being considered, he should probably be in . Smaller market players will always have to do more than NY and Calif. would. Not really an opinion, just the way it is.

Thanks JBEX.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey str: do a search on born into the game gabby gaudet and it cones up as a facebook post you can watch the segment. enjoy.

[cutchemist42]

Hey str,

Thought posting about the Prince of Wales Stakes might be an interesting how it features 5 runners from the Queens Plate a few weeks prior. The PW is a 5 horse field so compared to the 14 horse QP.....the trips should be different.

https://youtu.be/5DNF4LqXoFs

1) One Bad Boy (won the QP on the lead)
2) Avies Flatter was the 2nd favorite and had the stalking trip throughout the QP.
3)Tone Broke got third
4) Hes a Macho Man didnt show too much to me in the QP
5) Skywire...was the QP fave but got spammed hard at the start so the trouble is easy to spot. I personally liked him for the win going into the QP.

[str]

Hey str,

Thought posting about the Prince of Wales Stakes might be an interesting how it features 5 runners from the Queens Plate a few weeks prior. The PW is a 5 horse field so compared to the 14 horse QP.....the trips should be different.

https://youtu.be/5DNF4LqXoFs

1) One Bad Boy (won the QP on the lead)
2) Avies Flatter was the 2nd favorite and had the stalking trip throughout the QP.
3)Tone Broke got third
4) Hes a Macho Man didnt show too much to me in the QP
5) Skywire...was the QP fave but got spammed hard at the start so the trouble is easy to spot. I personally liked him for the win going into the QP.

Here is what I saw from the replay:

One Bad Boy: Had a perfect trip, very much enjoyed the front end. Ears pricked into the 1st turn. Slow fractions, responded when asked.

Avies Flatter: The 14 post had the rider rating all the way. Is he a horse that makes the lead sometimes? If so, things should be different next time. But if he is a stalker, unless the pace tightens up, I can't see why he would be able to get by One Bad Boy next time if he couldn't do it this time. He had a great position from the 14 post when they went by the wire the 1st time. If he draws inside of One Bad Boy next out, that might set things up for a closer. Unless they walk the dog again kindly, which both did this time.

Tone Broke: Lugged in at the start and all through the stretch the 1st time. Responded every time he was asked but seems to be not quite as good as the top two. I do give him credit for finishing but part of that was a quick 23 and change from the 1/4 pole to the 1/8th pole. The top 3 did not change position mainly because it is really tough to rally forward into that 1/4 mile cut after one mile has been run.

Hes a Macho Man: He ran better than the race looked IMO. He responded while being pinned every time the rider asked, was putting forth a run around the turn and was stopped, losing all momentum just before they straightened away for home, regained his stride after about 70 yards while closing into that 23 and change fraction from the 1/4 pole to the 1/8th pole and was up for 4th. IMO would have been 3rd catching an seemingly out of gas Tone Broke.

Skywire: Was slammed early as you stated. He really resented his position and failed to respond to the rider going out of the 1st turn, Down the backside, and again into the 2nd turn. he didn't try much. Is he a speed horse? I ask because he just hated something the entire trip and I am assuming it was his position. Let me know and I will add to my comments.

I think position and pace has a big chance to make the race coming up. Once they draw the race, let me know please. There might be a value bet waiting in the weeds here.
Hope that helps.

[str]

Hey str: do a search on born into the game gabby gaudet and it cones up as a facebook post you can watch the segment. enjoy.

Thanks a lot Easy !!!

Just watched it.

Tough to see Linda get emotional about Eddie.

That got me a little bit.

What a great lady she is.

Thanks again.

[Louisvillekid1]

Hey man ,

Hope all is well...

SPA TIME!

[cutchemist42]

Here is what I saw from the replay:

One Bad Boy: Had a perfect trip, very much enjoyed the front end. Ears pricked into the 1st turn. Slow fractions, responded when asked.

Avies Flatter: The 14 post had the rider rating all the way. Is he a horse that makes the lead sometimes? If so, things should be different next time. But if he is a stalker, unless the pace tightens up, I can't see why he would be able to get by One Bad Boy next time if he couldn't do it this time. He had a great position from the 14 post when they went by the wire the 1st time. If he draws inside of One Bad Boy next out, that might set things up for a closer. Unless they walk the dog again kindly, which both did this time.

Tone Broke: Lugged in at the start and all through the stretch the 1st time. Responded every time he was asked but seems to be not quite as good as the top two. I do give him credit for finishing but part of that was a quick 23 and change from the 1/4 pole to the 1/8th pole. The top 3 did not change position mainly because it is really tough to rally forward into that 1/4 mile cut after one mile has been run.

Hes a Macho Man: He ran better than the race looked IMO. He responded while being pinned every time the rider asked, was putting forth a run around the turn and was stopped, losing all momentum just before they straightened away for home, regained his stride after about 70 yards while closing into that 23 and change fraction from the 1/4 pole to the 1/8th pole and was up for 4th. IMO would have been 3rd catching an seemingly out of gas Tone Broke.

Skywire: Was slammed early as you stated. He really resented his position and failed to respond to the rider going out of the 1st turn, Down the backside, and again into the 2nd turn. he didn't try much. Is he a speed horse? I ask because he just hated something the entire trip and I am assuming it was his position. Let me know and I will add to my comments.

I think position and pace has a big chance to make the race coming up. Once they draw the race, let me know please. There might be a value bet waiting in the weeds here.
Hope that helps.

Thanks so much for that. Yeah the draw is currently as the post positions I posted. The race is also a sixteenth shorter and back to dirt. Avies Flatter has not raced on dirt either.

I actually thought Avies Flatter was a mid pack horse when raced off turf at WO. Skywire has won close to upfront on that WO surface and thought he'd be up close stalking in the position Avies Flatter had in the QP if not slammed. Skywire has also won on dirt down at Gulfstream before.

Right now I am leaning towards Skywire getting another chance at the outside pressing trip I envisioned in the QP and does better with it than Avies Flatter.

I'll post the replay later tonight and see if it was right.

Thanks again as always!

[str]

Hey man ,

Hope all is well...

SPA TIME!

All good here Kid.

Good luck at the Spa !

[Louisvillekid1]

Why would stewards scratch a horse?

Drug test?
Paperwork?

A horse I was using in the 8th for Graham Motion was just that

Just curious why as I don’t see that a lot

or atleast never payed attention

[str]

Why would stewards scratch a horse?

Drug test?
Paperwork?

A horse I was using in the 8th for Graham Motion was just that

Just curious why as I don’t see that a lot

or atleast never payed attention

Not a drug test. But paperwork , licencing of owners, eligibility, van broke down or stuck in traffic in route and cannot get there at least 4 1/2 hours prior for lasix and a lot more.

Anybody can scratch by scratch time as long as the field is large enough. Amounts of horses for exotic races are determined by the type of bet. Like the Daily Double can scratch down to 8. But a triple race can only scratch down to 9. If a scratch is put in by scratch time and the number of horses requesting to scratch brings the field lower than the betting race allows, all the horses requesting out are "stuck". Then, over the next day or so, depending on scratch time, the Stewards and vets sift through the reasons written down by the trainer on the scratch card and see what's what. Bottom line is, if a trainer wants out, and has a legit reason, they will come out, but that reason must be seen by a state vet. That inspection happens around 9AM each race day. So the late scratches fall into " vet scratch for anything physical with the horse, or Stewards scratch which is basically, everything else. It is typically decided by about 11 AM or 4 1/2 hours before a race, whichever comes first.

When they started designating Stewards scratch or vets scratch, IMO all it did was help confuse the player. Fans aren't going to understand all the BS that goes with that. I mean, a vet scratch, sure. But then that leads people to believe that the horse is sore. Might have been coughing a little and otherwise, perfect. Big difference between a sore foot from a bruise and a sore knee from a chip right? All you see is vet scratch. I think it's ridiculous.
My advice if you want it, is to pay no attention to the reason or whose jurisdiction the scratch falls under . 99% of the time it will lead you or me to an incorrect conclusion. Just too many variables to try and sift through only to have to guess if you get all the answers you are allowed.
Hope that helps Kid.
All the best !