Thanks! Bodemeister definitely seems to do better on the outside. I think he lost barely to Creative Cause earlier this year, and he was the inside horse of the two. Alpha looked to be in a similar situation in his loss by a neck to Gemologist. He still ran well, as Hanson did in his last race. It's going to be interesting for sure. When the post positions come out, it'll be a little easier (maybe) to make a start on handicapping. Another difficulty is figuring in the horses that aren't discussed as much by the media and haven't had races against certain particular horses that others have. It's hard to make comparisons. For example, Went the Day Well. He doesn't seem terribly fast, but he's very consistent.
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I watched some workouts on HRTV and from what I saw, Went the Day Well looked great with blinkers "ON". Adding Blinks for this race is against normal tendencies for Graham. I would take that as a very solid positive.
Union Rags looked better in his work than I have seen him while running. Extremely impressive.
Dullahan did not impress me at all. He looked uncomfortable through the lane and did not gallop out worth a darn. I can't imagine that they were pleased with that.Comment -
Thanks! I didn't get to see any of the workouts. Union Rags could be ready for a good performance. He seems to have the ability and maybe at the 1 1/4 mile distance. He was narrowing the gap at the end of the Florida Derby. It looked like if the race had been a little longer, he would have won it. I looked at Went the Day Well's past performances and then Animal Kingdom's last year's, and it was almost like looking at a carbon copy. Yet, I haven't seen Went the Day Well on anyone's list of horses to watch. I'll be curious to see if he has his blinkers on for the Derby. Dullahan might have a tough time. This will be an interesting race, and it just looks like it'll be up for grabs. There's more legitimate contenders than usual. Do you think so too?Comment -
I really do not want to like Union Rags. I would love to throw him out. I just don't think that after watching that work that tossing him will be as easy as I had hoped.
Went The Day Well is certainly on my watch list, not that it matters to anyone. He will wear blinkers in the Derby and I think he will represent himself well. Still want to see the draw though before committing.
Dullahan was , and is a logical horse to want to like after his last race. The workout however was alarming when speaking to his comfort level. I just did not like how he moved over the track and especially how he galloped out . Dirt vs. poly could very well be an issue. Not sure yet.
Bodemeister also looked fine in his work. He worked quick but no surprise there.
I did not see Hansen's work but saw a comment that he was head strong while working. That is not so good but very predictable after he ran off in his last race undoing the relaxing lessons that were trying to be taught to him in the Gotham.
I think that the reason that there seems to be more legit contenders this year is because no horse , other than Bodemeister in his last race( a perfect trip) has stepped up and solidified themselves as that much better than the others.Last edited by str; 04-30-12, 09:02 AM.Comment -
The media and betting public have been on the Union Rags bandwagon from the start. It sure seems like it. I wasn't even figuring him in as one of my top 3 picks. I'd just been going back and forth between certain horses out of a half dozen or so. I'm thinking of just taking the horses that have run much better on a synthetic track than dirt and ones that have faltered at the end in a 1 1/8 mile race, toss them, and just wait until the post positions come out. Have to see where Went the Day Well and Union Rags end up on the draw, also look at some other workouts. If there's heavy rain on that day, and the track is muddy; wouldn't that change the scenario quite a bit? Past performances do show the horse's performance on an off track -providing the horse has even run on one before.Comment -
Q. If there's heavy rain on that day, and the track is muddy; wouldn't that change the scenario quite a bit?
A. Yes. I certainly could. Early forecasts are calling for maybe showers . A quick rain , even heavy for a brief period of time would probably not affect the track in the same fashion as a long sustained rain would. Hopefully weather will not come in to play.Comment -
Thanks! Hopefully there won't be a muddy track at Churchill Downs on Saturday. I'm going to try to check on more workouts. I saw where Alpha had a very light workout. Was it because of a foot problem? Should he even race at all? If he's having to work out softly, then it might be too much of a stretch for him to run a demanding 1 1/4 mile race. You would hate to see the poor horse crippled for being pushed beyond his physical limitations.Comment -
Q. I saw where Alpha had a very light workout. Was it because of a foot problem? Should he even race at all? If he's having to work out softly, then it might be too much of a stretch for him to run a demanding 1 1/4 mile race. You would hate to see the poor horse crippled for being pushed beyond his physical limitations.
A. I do not know why he worked lightly but I think this horse is not a very big horse if memory serves me correctly. If that is the case, smaller horses generally need far less conditioning to stay fit once they are fit. The horse is plenty fit by now to run in the Derby, as are all the horses. The workouts are maintenance works and works to possibly create a sharper mental edge at this point( whatever each case may be). They can also be used to try new bits , blinkers, etc.but it is a little late in the game to be playing around too much. So a lesser work is no big deal.
As to the foot problem, he caught his quarter . That means that he stumbled a bit and his hind shoes hit his bulb or bulbs of his front foot, or another horse stepped on his back quarter if it is a hind foot. While that can be sore to the touch in the days after, it has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on his long term health. It would be the same as if you sliced into the very tip of one of your fingers . It might be sore as hell for a few days and quite tender but as soon as it toughens up a bit(maybe a week or 10 days), it is fine again. Grabbing a quarter happens more than you might think and it is nothing more than a superficial soreness that heals fairly quickly. Of course, while it is fresh, it hurts like crazy too the touch for a few days. If you have ever seen pictures of horses coming off of a van or being turned out in a field and they are wearing rubber bell shaped things over their feet, those are bell boots and they are there to help prevent the horse grabbing their quarter.
No need to worry about his foot.Last edited by str; 05-01-12, 04:33 PM.Comment -
Thank you for explaining that to me. After I read about Alpha's sore foot, I had images of him breaking down on the track. I saw a clip of him running against Gemologist and thought he looked pretty scrappy, no sign of being injured at that time. And he really didn't look like a very big horse, not necessarily a bad thing. Anyway, it's good to know he's ok.Comment -
This is becoming very tough for me,
If Bode runs like he did last out he wins...
Gemologist has done nothing not to like...
And union Rags should love the added distance and has one of (if not) the best jockey riding from off the pace, and their should be alot of speed early on...
Went the Day well will definitely be underneath my exotics...
Can't get a feel on what I want to do with this race at all, but it is early in the week...Comment -
One of my closest friends in racing, a guy that I have known for 40 years, will be running Grace Hall in the Ky. Oaks on Friday. If he can win this race , people might finally notice this guys talent. He is a brilliant horseman. This guy is one of the premier trainers in the U.S.A. and while his stock this year is really good, he deserves better still.
I sure hope that she runs well for him.Comment -
Out of a good dozen or so horses in the Derby, any 3 of them could finish in the money. I looked at workouts from DRF. Bodemeister had an excellent workout, as did Daddy Nose Best. Union Rags not as sharp as the day before. Went the Day Well looked good, as Str mentioned, and Alpha had a quick workout. Also, Rousing Sermon showed no fatigue and didn't break a sweat in his workout. Just so hard to choose at this point. Good luck to your friend in the Kentucky Oaks, Str! I will make a note of her name, Grace Hall.Comment -
For those of you that don't follow the races very much but like to jump in every now and then, you might be getting confused about post positions. I have seen some comments about liking a horse but they are outside. I will try and sum this up in a small paragraph or two for you. This is a rule of thumb and not absolute.
When the run to a turn is an 1/8th of a mile or so, inside posts are much more desirable in larger fields. However, long runs to a turn, like the Derby run is, outside posts are more desirable. Not necessarily the # 20 post, but definitely posts 10- 16. This is because that position will allow you to get to a spot in the race making your own decision instead of having to gun forward or be shuffled backwards because of the amount of horses in the race.
If you are a deep closer, it really does not matter where you break. But a speed horse would rather be outside than inside in a race like this. A position( mid pack) horse would also prefer to be somewhat outside instead of hemmed in by others.
If Bodemeister #6, could switch places with Hansen#14 , he would do so in a heartbeat.
Hope that helps.Comment -
Thank you for the info! I really was disappointed in Bodemeister's post position, and #4 could be trouble for Union Rags as well. I saw where Bodemeister had a fantastic workout on a muddy track a couple of days ago. If it's muddy on Derby day, I wonder if he'd run off the charts from that position. You mentioned that speed horses benefit from an outer post. Are horses with an early running style usually classified as speed horses, while the pace horses are more middle of the pack? You answered a question I had about closers also. I had never realized that they weren't affected as much by post position.Comment -
str, wondering about a combination of two things. The post 1 for the relatively unknown Daddy Long Legs. This horse had an ideal trip in his UAE win, laying just off the pace. With all the early speed this Saturday, outside from post 1 obviously, there seems little doubt he won't be in that position this time. So I'm wondering where about to position him going into the first turn. Also, do you have any opinion on Racing Post Ratings? Daddy Long Legs only raced once in the US (BC Juvenile), and recorded a terrible 60 Beyer figure. But... the rough equivalent of a RPR of 117 from his last race is a definitely a triple digit Beyer figure, probably in the 103-105 range. At 30-1 that could make the horse interesting enough for exotic wagers, but then there's that post 1 position... I'm inclined to think he may have lost the race very early. (Further unknown, jockey Colm O'Donoghue. I guess bettors may end up lucky that a horse with this many unknowns drew the worst post?).Last edited by Dark Horse; 05-03-12, 05:06 PM.Comment -
If it comes up mud, his post will present more problems than it already does. He might like the mud but overcoming it being thrown in his face along with others in the field that will improve with the off track will wash itself out for him in all probability.
Middle of the pack horses are called stalkers or horses that are off the pace. The pace usually speaks to the speed up front.Comment -
It doesn't seem logical that the 1 horse would commit to being in the top 3-5 horses. If that is the case, he will need racing luck as too how many horses will try and lay 4,5,6. By that I mean that through the stretch the 1st time, many jocks will be searching for a position. Probably a dozen riders will be wanting to " see where they are as they cross the wire the first time and try and get a good position". 3/4s of the field might employ the same strategy. As a result, the jock on the 1 horse will either need to commit to a fairly forward position( 4th-7th) or risk getting shuffled back to 12th or so. The connections , knowing this to be true , have to decide which way to go if what looks like will happen, really does.
This race has a lot of horses that want to stalk, but, they all seem to want to be within 3-5 lengths. That should not happen if Trinniberg darts out. The front 8 horses should be fairly strung out length wise early if they all want to wait for Trinniberg to falter but at the same time, 5 of those eight might be within 2-3 lengths of each other. That could create a scenario where there is little room to relax. If that happens, horses laying 12th-15th could benefit greatly. In past years when the pace is hot, it is this area where the winners have been laying as they go down the backside.
I am going to spend some time trying to figure this mess out but my first thought is that it might be a good year to go bombs away and look for those that have displayed some sort of a middle move , but will also be well back early.
Let's talk again tomorrow.Comment -
Q. Daddy Long Legs only raced once in the US (BC Juvenile), and recorded a terrible 60 Beyer figure. But... the rough equivalent of a RPR of 117 from his last race is a definitely a triple digit Beyer figure, probably in the 103-105 range. At 30-1 that could make the horse interesting enough for exotic wagers, but then there's that post 1 position..
I will get back here this afternoon on this one. Missed this last night.Comment -
I'm leaning towards Bodemeister, Went the Day Well, and Daddy Nose Best in the Kentucky Derby. If it turns out muddy; I might try Take Charge Indy, Union Rags, Hansen, and El Padrino. Neither necessaily in that order. The latter horses really seem to have really run well on an off track, especially El Padrino. Do these just sound ridiculous? There probably won't be heavy rain, but you just never know what to expect in this year of unpredictable weather. And I REALLY like Grace Hall in the Kentucky Oaks.Comment -
I agree that it equates to a 103+/- Beyer. You know how I feel about his numbers though. With that said, on those numbers, he is a live long shot. I also do not buy into all the negative press about the one hole. It totally depends who has that post and what they will try and do with it. Is it a good post? No. But is it death Valley? No. So you have to look at the overall picture and determine if it will affect each horse each year . Yes, Lookin At Lucky got in all sorts of trouble from that post. But with all due respect to him, he seemed to get in trouble all the time anyway. If you WANT to lay 4,5,6 with that post, some years that will be ok and some years it will seemingly be difficult. On paper , this year seems to make that post a tough post to have if you want to do that. I count 8 horses that want to be in the top 4 and within 3 lengths of the lead. That is not counting Went The Day Well as one of those. It seems to me that the close stalker area will be a very busy place to try and be. Having said that, I continue to lean towards horses that will be laying 10-14th.
Each year is different, but that is how this race looks to me as to which pack of horses will have the best chances to relax , get underneath themselves and move when ready instead of having to move when others dictate .
That is how I will construct my ticket in all probability. Will look at the race some more tonight but that is how I am seeing it.
If someone was going to play Beyer figs to construct a ticket, I can not see how the #1 can be left off of it, purely from a figure point of view.Comment -
No, that does not look like a ridiculous ticket. I also understand your thoughts on an off track. It seems as though it just rained hard at Churchill before the Oaks. Because it was a quick storm, it probably will not have the same effect on the track that a long sustained rain would have. Let's hope not. The race for Grace Hall has been pushed back 45 minutes. That might not seem like a big deal but to a horse, it sure can. And to a trainer, it is frustrating to say the least.
I sure hope that it does not effect Grace , but it is what it is.Comment -
Thanks for the Daddy Long Legs comments.
What a tough race to cap from an exotics perspective. Too many contenders, but plenty of longshots among them. If it's down to closers, I'm giving Daddy Nose Best the nod. Another, crazy, scenario? Trinniberg, who has never gone two turns and is automatically expected to run out of gas after a lightning fast start, goes wire to wire at 50-1.Comment -
Darn it! I watched the Kentucky Oaks race. Grace must have been affected by the condition of the track and maybe her inside post position as well. I put her in a trifecta box with the 6 and 3 horse, just didn't figure in the 9. I agree with Dark Horse on Daddy Nose Best being a solid closing horse, and maybe it doesn't hurt that he has Garret Gomez aboard. He seems like he's been a good jockey on that type of horse, and #10 could be a good post position for him. And maybe it wouldn't hurt to put a couple of dollars here and there on a few of the longest shot horses in the field. After all it's the Kentucky Derby, the race of major upsets. Horses like Rousing Sermon or Liasion might still be going after all the others have gotten winded. Probably not likely though.Comment -
Question:
A handicapper on the radio had 3 horses in a bx exacta, then he said these 3 horse on top of 5 other horses. Ex
bx exacta: 1,4,8
top of
3,10,11,13,5
How do you bet this and what is this called so I don't look stupid asking this at the book.
ThanksComment -
Race could be in the mud. *curses*
str, if this is the case, could you make some comments here about track bias in the earlier races?
No point in constructing exotic tickets without knowing how the mud influences things.Comment -
the exacta play of 1,4,8 with 3,10,11,13,5,is called a part-wheel exacta.this ticket will cost $30.00 for a $2.00 amount wager.the tix will cost $42.00 if you come back with the 1,4,8 in the bottom.(1,4,8 with 1,3,4,5,8,10,11,13.
good luck.Comment -
I am going to go to Charles Town to watch the races with a couple of high school buddies. Will probably be leaving around 11:30. I will comment on what I see in the first couple before I go and try to figure out if I can comment from my phone while up there. Must admit though, when it comes to iphone technology, I am about as sharp as a bowling ball.
I am concerned about taking a stand with closers if the track is muddy. From what I have heard, Churchill in the mud is typically speed favoring recently. But that is from the talking heads on T.V. so I really do not know.Last edited by str; 05-05-12, 08:26 AM.Comment -
Thanks for the help.Comment -
Here at beautiful Charles Town LOL. Saw the grader on the track. Will assume that the inside will be the place to be until I see differently. As for Churchill , other than 2 races, the run through the lane resembles a conveyor belt. I hope that it does not continue . Speed is certainly not a bad thing.Comment -
I think that will play Daddy Knows Best as a key in all 3 triple spots with Optimizer , Dullahan, Rousing Sermon , Went the day well, and Sabercat. Going to stay with the closers and hope for a 46 first half mile. Good luck everyone!Comment -
I've wondered about El Padrino. Is he a bad horse? No one has mentioned him as a possible long shot.Comment -
He is fine. I have decided to Take a stand against the horses that figure to be in the top 8 early on. The track is favoring speed so call me hard headed but I really think that it could be a really quick mle and 3/4 time. If that is the case the speed should come back. So i will swing for the fences and hope for the best. Wont get hurt but might get luckyComment
