So am I
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do not have a form but the 1 horse was always the horse to beat the way it broke so well and was in a great spot and there easily.Comment -
They only run 10 per race there so most times the 11-14 will be scratched. Go through the card and identify who you think will make the lead in each race.
There are no 4 1/2 races tonight. For future reference, the outside post is typically preferred out of the chute. Usually going 6 1/2 or 7 furlongs, the post is not that big a deal at C.T. unless you are way outside with 3-4 speeds inside you. Obviously tough under those circumstances.
So far tonight all winners have come from the rail. Two big favs and the 4-1 in the 3rd. Something to watch for. However, horses running 2nd and 3rd have been somewhat outside so I would think that the track may be a little inside favoring but not necessarily a big advantage. Let's see what the 1 horse does in the 4th. If any bias exists she will probably win . More important than that, lets see who else gets the rail trip and monitor there run as well.Comment -
No bias to speak of IMO. One horse won but went from 7-5 to 3-5 last 2 minutes. Should have won so no big deal. Winners have been chalk . Don't really care for that but because I can see these replays, this track will be a place where I can help as you need it.
If it is too confusing for you to use a small track (5/8s) just say the word. Things happen fast and in weird places at C.T. compared to mile tracks. In hindsight this might be a tough fit for you to watch bull ring style races. Let me know if it is to hard to follow.
Not having a form, I am of no help other than explaining what I see in the running.Comment -
I have changed my mind. Don't use C.T. The 5/8s track will confuse you. Until you learn the poles and positions on a mile track, therefore understanding the wheres and whys of position, it is a waste of time.
Having said that, it would be great if you used Laurel but there are just to many 6 horse fields with even money shots in each one. That is no good.
Find yourself a mile track or two with a decent amount of entries. Any will do. Just make sure that replays are available via there web site. From what I see, most tracks do this now. That's a far cry from the way it was when I was there.
Let me know what you come up with.Comment -
You mentioned before that 2 year olds on their first trip may run scared and go wire to wire. Tomorrow Reneesgotzip is racing in the Santa Ynez (SA). Only her second race. 1-1 favorite in the ML. Her first race, shown below, looks impressive, but I just wanted to check with you if she ran scared. Also, how do horses that run scared and go wire to wire on their first trip generally respond in their second trip?
The race is the third race. You can slide up the timer to the 5:30 mark and the race is until the 7:00 mark.
The other horses in tomorrow's race didn't run higher than a 78 Beyer their first time out. Reneesgotzip came out with a 98. That's why I'm looking for some more perspective on her. I loved how she responded in the stretch, so it looks like she was in control, and not panicking at all, but I wouldn't really know what to look for if she was scared.
Last edited by Dark Horse; 01-14-12, 10:16 PM.Comment -
Although the first 1/4 of the race gives the appearance of exactly what I was talking about, my answer to did this horse run scared would be no. The 1st quarter looked as though she was just running as fast as she could for as long as she could. However, she relaxed very well once the race was under way. The splits of 22:22 and then 23:12 show this as well. Not so much because the 2nd quarter was slower but because of what happened next. From the quarter pole to the 1/8th pole she ran 11:42. That is very impressive! The race was won there.
She then finished up in 12:31. Also a solid number.
So the answer is no, she did not run scared the entire race. That is not why she won. She won because she was able to relax somewhat into and around the far turn and then exploded into the lane. The only way that happened was that she was taught to do that in the morning by her trainer. That says that she is probably not a crazed speed ball with everything she does. You don't learn how to relax like that without having a level head . Having said that, she was probably tons the best in the morning and it is always easier to turn it off and on when you are dominate.
Also seen in the replay was that the 2-5 shot looked uncomfortable running in there. It looked to me that she could not settle into a fluid stride and get her feet underneath herself because she was chasing and could not take the time to get comfortable. I would assume that the favorite will try longer distances in the future. More time to get herself together and slower early fractions for sure.
So the last question is will this horse win today. My answer to that is with a question. Is there any speed that can stay with her early enough to not allow her to get that relaxed 1/4 of a mile from the 1/2 mile pole to the 1/4 pole? If there is not, she will probably repeat her last effort. But if there is, I would say that she will probably get beat. Why? Because without that breather most City Zip's can't finish and I doubt that she is an exception. Maybe she is, but if hooked down the backside or pressured within a 1/2 length, I would be looking for a price to run her down through the lane.
Again, the pressure that she does get or does not get early on will dictate how she finishes up. So is there any other early burners in the race?Comment -
You're using pace in a much more interesting way than I've been reading about (in the Brohamer book). Let me make sure I understand this correctly. So you're comparing the first and second fractions (which together are the second call), and then you divide the final fraction in two, and in this case use the first fast half of the final fraction against the relaxed second fraction to get a decisive read. That whole story is lost with a pace method that only uses the 2nd call and final fraction, which is what I thought pace was all about. So there's a whole other level to it. I need some time to chew on all that. lol As a general follow-up, do you always use four fractions?
It looks to me like everything was pretty much ideal for Reneesgotzip in her first race. I'm very interested in her second race, which probably doesn't line up as well. There are other speeds in the race, -not sure if they're fast enough-, and I had picked a stalker to run pretty big. But I'm a little intimidated by that 98.Last edited by Dark Horse; 01-15-12, 03:01 PM.Comment -
Unless she is some kind of monster , she can't duplicate that run from the 1/4 pole to the 1/8th pole without a relaxed 1/4 from the 1/2 mile pole to the 1/4 pole.
It's not that I use those fractions to find a winner. I use them to understand how a horse did or did not do something.
When I watched the rerun I saw the fractions on the replay. I did not divide the last 1/4 in half. Had I done that , I would have been confused because the last 1/8th was slower than the first 1/8th of the final quarter. Hope that's not too confusing.
Not sure what your form shows for calls. I am seeing the 1st quarter in roughly 22. The half went in 45 So 22 and 23. Then 11. Then 12. All this is rounded of course. Because only one horse set all these, they show that the horse got a breather right? Yes. Then a second acceleration right? Yes. That is what I see in the timer and that is what I saw in the horse. That is indeed exactly what happened.
That story is indeed lost if you only look at the first 1/2 mile time. It might not matter if multiple horses are setting those fractions but in this case , it was the story behind the race.
I always use at least 3 fractions. As a trainer, handicapper or whatever. The first 1/4. The second 1/4 and the final time. (if it is a 6F race) But seeing splits of those final 1/4s or whatever depending on the distance is crucial IMO to understanding late surges , finishes, or whatever is necessary to understand how a race shaped up.Comment -
Thanks for clarifying. Another big piece of the puzzle.
Reneesgotzip just blew away the field again in her second race. Officially impressed now. lolComment -
I just watched the replay. She was in complete control the whole race. She got an easy lead and the innocent inside pressure was really no pressure at all. Remember about outside eye and inside . She was never fazed by that inside stuff. When horses tried to come to her on the outside at the 5/16s pole the jock moved his hands slightly and she took off.
That was a dominate performance!Comment -
Insightful as always and learning so much...Comment -
Thanks str. Sorry I have been out a few days...well how does Gulfstream sound? I know they have much larger fields...I just can't stand the voice of Larry Collmus (if there was any way to make racing boring, that guy knows the secret) haha but thats neither here nor there. Well if Gulfstream seems like a good choice then let me know.Comment -
Gulfstream is a great choice.
I have to be honest with you. When I watch races I don't even hear the announcer. Try watching the race and focusing on learning all you can by watching the jockeys and there movement while on the horse. That is hard to do if you have money on a certain horse. All that most see is the saddle towel of the horse they bet on. So do know that you will probably learn much more watching a race with no investment than a race with one. When you watch the replay , you will learn more and when you watch the head on you will learn more still.
Best of Luck.Comment -
Ramon Dominguez stole the Eclipse awards show with one paragraph within his acceptance speech.
Recognizing those behind the scenes, the unsung heroes that work tirelessly every day to make the show happen.
Here is a blurb from the speech:
“Tonight, all these awards being presented are a product of hard work by so many people in our industry, from owners, trainers, jockeys, and exercise riders and grooms,” Dominguez said. “I would like to thank them, thank everyone. Because of their efforts, we can have great moments like this.”
Well said Ramon!
You are indeed a class act.Comment -
This is very nice job to help other people because everyone can increase their knowledge after sharing the ideas with other. I think that you should share your knowledge with all those person who have no experience about these games.Comment -
str, I'm trying to gain a better understanding of how trainers are developing 2 and 3 year olds with an eye on the first Saturday in May.
The following is based on the horses that qualified for the 2011 Derby, using only clean Beyer figures (only fast and firm tracks, and early weakening discarded). They are averaged for each month, so there is a smoothing effect for inaccuracies. This runs from October through April:
Oct 70
Nov 83
Dec 76
Jan 82
Feb 86
Mar 88
Apr 91
So we see a pretty steady development, except for November. I'm not sure if the November number is due to trainers trying to peak for the Breeder's Cup, but for the bigger picture that would only matter if peaking at the right time becomes more difficult to do for a second time in a 6 month span. From a first glance at individual horses it would appear that it is undesirable to run too fast in November, but this is just a small sample.
Any comments you may have on this process are much appreciated, but the main question in my mind (at this time lol) revolves around handicapping races in the period December - February, which is not about peak performance. By comparison, it doesn't look like they're holding back much in March and April. Does it require an indepth study of individual trainers to know what to expect during this part of the season, or are there general guidelines that can be kept in mind? For example, will they back off and not race their horse for a while, if he ran a very fast number too soon? Are trainers even looking for gradual speed progressions, or is that a natural result of other factors they're working on? And once a horse reaches maturity, how long of a preparation window is the norm for a peak performance?
The number of races that horses run prior to the Derby has decreased over the years. Is that the result of breeding? It stands out to me that winner Animal Kingdom only ran three races in the above time window, and runner up Nehro only ran five. The horses that ran the most races, eight each, during this period were Comma to the Top and Twinspired. They finished last and second to last in the Derby.Last edited by Dark Horse; 01-20-12, 08:02 AM.Comment -
I will answer this after work today.
Great set of questions.Comment -
Beyer # spike in Nov.?
The breeders Cup is most definitely the reason for the November spike. Many of those that run in the B.C. races are put away until early Feb. so excluding the spike you have a gradual improvement.
More difficult to peak twice in 6 months?
Peaking does not become more difficult 6 months later. For those that peaked in Nov. it might actually become easier because not only have they been through it albeit to a lesser extent than they are now facing, but they have been let down afterwards and the rebuilding is a process that the horse has already been through.
Undesirable to run in the B.C. as a baby?
Running in the B.C. as a baby has it's pros and cons. It really depends on whether or not the horse was PUSHED to make the race. By that I mean that if everything fell into place , fine. You run in the race. But if something like an infection or setback like a filling in a knee or ankle, a sore shin that you have to get under control, etc. made the connections alter the smooth path and make it happen instead of letting it happen, if it does not work out, the chances increase for problems in the spring if not right after the Nov. race. That won't bother the handicapper though, the horse simply will not be able to get it together for the preps . Those are really tough decisions that could mean millions so plenty of thought goes into it. This is also where a meddling owner can start to screw things up and make a trainer do something that he might not have done on his own.
The 2 year olds are still growing and changing almost right before your eyes in Nov.. Again, if it all comes together without a hitch , that is one thing but pushing more times than not does not work out well at all. Easy to say from the cheap seats though. Many guys might not get another chance in life so it is never an easy decision.
Handicapping from Dec.= Feb.?
Again, the horses running from Dec.- Feb. were not pushed in Oct. or Nov. so they are two different groups. For those that compete in Dec.- Jan., they are running on ability and trying to learn what it is all about. None of these horses are "all geared up" yet. You just can't do it yet. But they are pretty much all in the same boat as those that raced in the B.C. were in August -Sept. So it comes down to raw talent, the trip, the pace, etc. (here I go).
Not holding back in March or April?
No they are not BUT and this is a big but, the trainers are pointing to peak in early May. So the horses will be almost in prime position to peak but one race shy of that. It does not always work out that way but that is the objective. It is the dress rehearsal .
In depth study of trainers patterns?
You can but you know what the objective is. So most moves that the trainer makes will make sense. Remember, this is one of the few times that you know exactly what is going on as to what the main objective is. The preps are just that. They all hope that they win them but not at the expense of not being able to run in the triple crown.
Will a trainer back off if the horse runs huge?
I guess it depends on the trainer. At that point you probably feel like you have a big chance to win the Derby. Now you go in to don't screw it up mode. Not always, but usually.
Trainers looking for natural progression?
Yes. That would be ideal. If they could set up a perfect plan, that would probably be it. Just get a little better each race and explode at Churchill in early May.
The natural speed progressions are a result of maturity both physically and mentally.
The blueprint is already in place for most all of the horses by now. It was set up in late Nov.-early Dec.for those that ran in the B.C.. Now, they are all just hopeful that the horse can stay on that path. If something alters that plan, plan B is already set also. So is plan C. So the trainers pretty much know how they want to proceed.
The steady work that the horse has to endure from not having raced in early May of one year, to winning at a mile and a quarter the next year, then running in two weeks and again in three more at a mile and a half is a tough a test of physical and mental endurance as any that I can think of. It is an overwhelming amount. That is what makes it the truest test of a champion that there can possibly be.
Window for max effort when mature?
This will depend on the horse. The rule of thumb will be the third race back after 90-120 days of training. This will vary though. The good thing there is you have the PP's to fall back on. Does the horse excel first back? Plenty do. Maybe 2nd start back. Some do this as well. Also seeing how hard the trainer works to have the horse ready 1st back will help. Not with the workouts. That's a losing proposition as I have explained in previous answers. Check the trainers stats on 1st off time, etc. That will point you in the right direction . But, if the trainer is maybe weak at winning 1st back but the horse loves winning fresh, the horse's tendencies will almost always trump the trainers tendencies. Several reasons for that but I won't bore you with those details.
# of starts before the Derby has decreased. Is it the breeding?
In a word, yes.
Trainers have definitely scaled back the # of starts over the years but would they have done so if the horses were as sturdy as they used to be? Nope. It is way easier to train a fit horse between races than it is to train one with larger gaps.
I will not say that the two horses that had 8 starts finished where they did because of those starts but horses are getting more and more fragile. You can thank legal medication for that. Not that I didn't use my fair share when I was training but the bottom line is that horses that might not have reached the pinnacle of the sport due to infirmities 40-50 years ago have in the last 25 years. Because those infirmities are typically passed down from the breeding shed, horses have become more fragile . I guess that could be considered my opinion but how can it not be everyone's?
I think I answered them all.
Let me know if I missed any.Comment -
Thanks for all those answers. Very helpful. I'm looking at different speed/progress curves, followed by rest or no rest in April. It seems that a long term energy distribution is definitely part of the run up to the Derby. A steady progress with gradual increases, for instance, seems to benefit from a race in April. But a big jump in March benefits more from rest in April. Things of that nature. It must be difficult for trainers to plan this, and makes me wonder what they might think when a horse peaks a month too early. Anyway, just starting to look into this. More backtesting needed.
Would it make sense to you to say that a baby, very often, looks at the jockey in a more dependent way than an older horse? Almost as if the jockey is the guide, and the racing experience is so new that the horse isn't yet ready to look beyond that guide. Later on, as the horse is ready to assert himself more, that also allows the jockey to do more with the horse (similar to a car that is driven in). I'm seeing this pattern, but want to make sure that I understand it correctly.Comment -
When they peak in March , that is when most will go into "don't screw this up" mode and play it real conservative. Most will give the horse more time so as to make sure that the horse will recover fully . At that point they know they have a decided edge on most and seek to simply hold that edge. Remember, the object is to hold the best form possible for 6 weeks. When the horse gets to that point a month or two early, it is all that much harder to maintain that peak for twice as long.
Difficult to plan ?
Running a huge race is a great problem to have. Human nature is to not plan for that but instead react if it happens. Most plans include sub plans if for instance you can't make the 2nd race leading up, where and when will any options occur. That sort of thing. Be prepared for everything and you are prepared for anything.
2 year old looks at a jockey differently?
The horses natural instinct is that they are scared and will shy from things that they are not accustomed to seeing. At the Preakness many years back, someone came up with the idea to have an inflated Pillsbury Dough boy about 80 feet tall on the outside fence of the clubhouse turn as an advertisment. Two horses got scratched from the card that year because they flipped over while trying to walk by it on the way to the paddock to be saddled. Needless to say, it was one and done for the dough boy.
While they might want to trust the rider and hope for the best, if something different distracts a young horse, they will in almost all cases try and shy away. For them, trust does not outweigh survival instincts.
As they mature and get races under their belt, they have experienced more and therefore will do more. As to the jockeys, they will have more confidence in the horse and therefore ask the horse to do more. Remember, the jockeys know they are riding babies also and they don't trust them like they would an older, more seasoned horse.Comment -
How important is rest or time to recharge the batteries before the Derby? I'm seeing horses that gradually improve, and a race in April keeps them on target. But other horses improve in leaps, and I'm wondering if it takes longer to come back after a major improvement. If such a leap comes in March there is still time to rest, but it if comes in April there is not much time to recharge the batteries. For example, Midnight Interlude improved sharply last April, and was among the Derby favorites. Animal Kingdom had a similar sharp improvement, but it came in March.
Perfect translation to what I was seeing in my model. Without these type of translations I would have no idea what I was looking at. Just scratching the surface of this growth into maturity, but this is one fascinating aspect of horse racing (frustrating at first lol).Comment -
In a perfect world, the steady improvement is what trainers are working towards. When a horse makes a big surge forward, we all know that if the horse is asked to duplicate that effort too soon, it "could" bounce. That does not mean it "will" bounce but because there is no way of knowing for sure, trainers that have to deal with this will usually take the conservative approach. Remember, it is not so much that a horse might " bounce" , it is that if horse A does not run back too quite it's last performance, and horses B,C,D, and E all continue to move forward with steady progression, that is what creates the distance between them, not just any single horses regression.
Trainers monitor every single movement possible with this quality horse to try and see if there are any signs of more than usual fatigue. Temperature twice daily, how long it takes to eat, how they act while walking to the track in the morning as compared to previous walks, do they do whatever little routine at a certain point like they did everyday prior and all the way to the color of there urine and consistency of there stool. The list is endless. But the bottom line is in most cases, you don't know until it is too late. So, better safe than sorry is usually applied.
If this big forward move is in April, the trainer will do anything they can to water down the effects of such an effort but there is only so much they can do. Ultimately, even with all the safeguards, you just hope for the best while fully realizing what might happen. As long as the horse is sound and healthy, there is not much more anyone can do but hope.
Having said that, the "bounce" theory for these horses is one thing, but for the majority of claimers or early allowance types, this theory is slung all over the place every time a favorite does not run back to it's previous effort. That is a gross misuse of the term and is incorrect the majority of the time. It was hyped to sell "sheets" when they first came out and became trendy to the public, but in reality, it is in many more cases than not, the furthest thing from what actually happened.Comment -
Thanks str. No bounce theory here. Just observing the different run-ups to the Derby. Backtesting a very simple categorization based on the 2011 Derby produced six horses for the 2010 Derby, including the top two. Probably luck, but no reason not to look at more editions. The basis for this wouldn't work for more mature horses.Comment -
Please let me know what you find on previous Derby's. Sounds very interesting.
Actually, I think that you might be looking for a regression of the horse that moved well forward in April, more so than the previous forward moves, aren't you? That would make sense with that regression along with the progression of others that were able to peak according to schedule. That is a true difference maker. It's like when a team plays the division leader and makes up a full game when they win. One or two moving backwards while at least 5 or 6 move forwards. That seems like a solid find if you can identify it.
We have the luxury of knowing exactly what all the trainers are trying to accomplish. That is a luxury that players don't normally have. So, finding a trend like that, and understanding why the trend exists, too me, would be very helpful information.Comment -
Yes, I looked at it as basically another race with its own type of energy distribution. I wondered if a peak would take more out of a horse than a gradual progression, so identified four progression curves, with 'rest' or 'no rest' added depending on a race in April. The only horses that seemed to benefit from no rest were the ones with a gradual progression. If those horses came into the Derby with rest I marked them as neutral. Other than those I looked at three types of leaps (10 Beyers or more). A March leap with rest looks much better, for instance, than an April peak (i.e. no rest). It's too early to say, but it seems like some horses are trying hard to qualify for the Derby in April, which doesn't help them in May. An early peak, in the previous year, had to be approached again by March, followed by rest, to be positive. So nothing fancy, and much of it borrowed from the energy distribution within a race (speed, stalker, closer, time to relax, etc). I'm just scratching the surface of longterm energy distribution for these seven months in their development. A few months ago I was trying to cap these young horses in the same manner as mature horses, so any small step forward is a relief. lol Hope to find more Derby PP's, but the older ones are harder to come by.Last edited by Dark Horse; 01-24-12, 10:09 AM.Comment -
If I could jump in here, DarkHorse there are 2 good places to visit to that might be an aid in what your're looking for.
Thorograph has their Derby files in the archive section dating back to 1982. They have their multi-media seminar for the Derby dating back to, I think, 2000. Even if you don't use the product, reading their data and watching the seminar as they go over each horse explaining what they look for in terms of moving forward, backward, rest etc is, I feel well worth the time and effort. You don't have to signup for anything, you just access those files from their website.
The other place to visit is HTR if you are interested in early energy distribution. HTR has derby files archived back to 2000. In those files you will find each horse's past performances in terms of early energy, FR1, FR2,SP etc. You don't have to signup for anything, but you do have to install the HTR software to read the files.Comment -
Thanks Jake. Will definitely take a look.Comment -
Thanks str, appreciate that.Comment -
str, can you elaborate on the difference, for all involved, between a one and a two turn race? The Holy Bull later today, for example, is a 1 mile race, but instead of going around the track they start on the other side and have a very long run up to the first and only turn. Obviously, a totally different way of running a mile than two turns. What is the reason for running the mile this way when they can go around the track as well?Comment -
One mile out of a chute can quickly become a sprint in terms of the front end pressure. Not that two turn races don't sometimes have suicidal duels but for the most part, they are more controlled on the front end early.
The other thing that one turn miles will do is keep the dead closers from showing up. This is obvious from today's entrants. Nobody wants to sprint with that style of horse. At the end of the day, that is exactly what this race is, a sprint.
As for the distance, this race has had several different distances over the years. I might be mistaken (help Jake) but I think that this race took the place of the Flamingo Stakes that used to run at Hialeah. There was another stakes race that ran at 7/8s prior too that I think but I guess it is long gone. But because of dwindling starts for these types of horses prior to the Derby, some of these races have been consolidated and moved around to help gain more interest.
So, the one turn mile is , at least to me (11 years removed), different than it used too be.
Gulfstream used to have plenty of 1 1/16 dirt races. That distance is essential for trainers to get 3 year olds ready for the Triple Crown. But Gulfstream has changed it's configuration and the 1 1/16th race now has the finish line at the 1/16th pole. So, short run too the first turn and short run through the stretch. I would venture to guess that any true closer will opt for another race track unless they are looking at the Florida Derby at 1 1/8th. I know that I would.
Might not have answered this fully but want to get it out there before the race starts.Comment
