Horse Racing questions and answers

[cutchemist42]

Hey str,

As I know you raced at Del I believe, would you be pissed at a starter for doing this?

https://twitter.com/MarkBowers1/status/1007345078921244674?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.paceadvantage.com%2Fforum%2Fshowthread.php%3Fp%3D2334058%23post2334058

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: A question on Running lines? When you cap a race how much, (if any) weight do you put into running lines? I do not put much credence into a running line other coordinating them with the pace of their last race or two. Look for horses that closed into a slow to moderate pace, or stayed on forwardly placed in a fast pace. Anything specific that you would look for? Thx.

[Easy-Rider 66]

One more thing. With Brisnet PP's they provide a running style for each horse so I do not need to look a running line to determine what the running style of a particular horse is.

[str]

Hey str,

As I know you raced at Del I believe, would you be pissed at a starter for doing this?

https://twitter.com/MarkBowers1/stat...%23post2334058

I did race there for years.

Sure, I would be pretty upset at the asst. starter. No question he lost his cool when the horse pulled that number.

As upset as he was, you just can't do that.

Horse needs some serious schooling though. That move could have been disastrous for the guy on the gate, the horse and the rider. That was a deliberate move by the horse who very much disliked where it was.

That said, that is not a hint of an excuse to take it where the gate crew guy took it.

Hopefully both parties will be better moving forward.

[str]

Hey STR: A question on Running lines? When you cap a race how much, (if any) weight do you put into running lines? I do not put much credence into a running line other coordinating them with the pace of their last race or two. Look for horses that closed into a slow to moderate pace, or stayed on forwardly placed in a fast pace. Anything specific that you would look for? Thx.

I DO put a lot into them. Probably because I was not used to the amount of info that you have today. I tried to envision the race looking at them so as to get the feel of if the horse was actually closing or if the pace was coming back to them or if they were just plodding along and a better closer ran by them. Hope that makes sense.
I also look for a z pattern. One where a horse looks like 5th by 8, 4th by 4 , 5th by 5, 3rd by 1. Something like that. I do not care for those types as a rule. I remember Bravazo ran something like that in the Preakness . I hate a running line like that.
Seeing the pace in conjunction with the running line gives you a sense of what the horse can do or had the opportunity to do and could not.

I have always looked at that quite a bit. But it's old school and I know that. Old habits die hard Easy.

[str]

One more thing. With Brisnet PP's they provide a running style for each horse so I do not need to look a running line to determine what the running style of a particular horse is.

I would never trust that even if I should. My interpretation might be different than whoever is determining the running style. And if it is a computer or a human, it would have to gain my trust and that would not be easy.

Also, do remember that everybody is seeing that and many are relying on it blindly. I think I have seen that in Brisnet before but paid no attention whatsoever to it. Not sure if that is wise or not but like I said, I would need a lot of proof before I even began to trust it and would probably try and find it's weakness and try to play into that when I found it , if indeed it exists, being the contrarian that I am.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thx for the take STR. Yeah a lot more info available today than back in your day I guess. I also use the running line to see how the horse finished in the stretch. What do you find negative in that "Z" pattern? I do find the Bris running styles to be pretty spot on. But I can see where someone with your experience would not rely on them.

[str]

Thx for the take STR. Yeah a lot more info available today than back in your day I guess. I also use the running line to see how the horse finished in the stretch. What do you find negative in that "Z" pattern? I do find the Bris running styles to be pretty spot on. But I can see where someone with your experience would not rely on them.

Z patterns are either trouble in the race which if so, is a positive but is usually pretty obvious or more likely a horse that ran evenly and did not make up the ground a handicapper might give them credit for but instead had pace come back or a winner wrap up to close the length difference or something like that. Again in speaking with Bravazo, both he and Tenfold made up ground late mainly due, IMO, to Smith wrapping up and making the final separation much less. Justify won that race a lot easier than most think. They were not flying IMO late like the form or the replay seems to indicate. Smith was in total control. So why did Bravazo seem to drop back on paper between the 1/4 pole and the 1/8th pole( I think it was there). That is what I mean about Z patterns or an accordian style race which is how I used to define it.

But in general, if the speed collapses and a horse stays 4th but makes up lengths, if the first 2 horses run behind it that means 2 horses passed it. That to me means the horse was unable to rally at all and was outrun by two others but it looks like it was making up ground.
Hope I explained that OK. Does it make sense?

[Easy-Rider 66]

Z patterns are either trouble in the race which if so, is a positive but is usually pretty obvious or more likely a horse that ran evenly and did not make up the ground a handicapper might give them credit for but instead had pace come back or a winner wrap up to close the length difference or something like that. Again in speaking with Bravazo, both he and Tenfold made up ground late mainly due, IMO, to Smith wrapping up and making the final separation much less. Justify won that race a lot easier than most think. They were not flying IMO late like the form or the replay seems to indicate. Smith was in total control. So why did Bravazo seem to drop back on paper between the 1/4 pole and the 1/8th pole( I think it was there). That is what I mean about Z patterns or an accordian style race which is how I used to define it.

But in general, if the speed collapses and a horse stays 4th but makes up lengths, if the first 2 horses run behind it that means 2 horses passed it. That to me means the horse was unable to rally at all and was outrun by two others but it looks like it was making up ground.
Hope I explained that OK. Does it make sense?

Yeah I understand. Will have to look for that Z or accordion pattern in the form. Interesting take on Bravazo. From the naked eye or for someone that does not have your experience it looked liked he was closing fast on Justify. Thx again.

[str]

Yeah I understand. Will have to look for that Z or accordion pattern in the form. Interesting take on Bravazo. From the naked eye or for someone that does not have your experience it looked liked he was closing fast on Justify. Thx again.

Don't watch Bravazo, just watch Smith. You will see it.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Don't watch Bravazo, just watch Smith. You will see it.

Yeah watched the reply. Smith did let up.

[str]

Yeah watched the reply. Smith did let up.

Yes, And what happened was Justify was getting tired and slowed down a bit more than Smith thought he would which made the finish under a length. Smith was well under a hold at the wire if memory serves.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: A question on run ups in the game? Was it the same in your day? Read online that sometimes those 7.5 F turf races at Gulfstream can actually be run at closer 1 mile 45 feet. Del Mar evidently runs 1 mile dirt races with a run up of 200 feet. Those extra distances run can really make a difference. Thx.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Disclosure: The article I read from Andrew Beyer in Washington Post was from March 2014 so maybe things are a bit different today. I also remember you addressing the run up at Gulfstream sometime in this thread. You were not happy about it if my memory is correct. I tried to find the post but could not.

[str]

Hey STR: A question on run ups in the game? Was it the same in your day? Read online that sometimes those 7.5 F turf races at Gulfstream can actually be run at closer 1 mile 45 feet. Del Mar evidently runs 1 mile dirt races with a run up of 200 feet. Those extra distances run can really make a difference. Thx.

The run ups never changed in Md., Del., C.T. , Penn. Nat., Monmouth to my knowledge. Those tracks, I was well aware of. Can't speak for gulfstream back in the day but pretty sure it has gotten worse in the last few years there. I thought I read that they were changing the location of the finish line to have more desired distances but in doing so screwed up the run up to absurd distances? Calif. racing I never paid any attention to. I always found that my edge on the east coast tracks was worthy of my attention. I never felt I had much of any edge in Calif.
My 2 cents is that with some of the run ups flat out absurd these days, you better know what you are playing into before you play or you will fall into the group of those in pari mutuel that are playing from a disadvantage. It's like moving the rail on the turf all over the place. 0 feet out one day and 30 feet out the next. I think that is risky to play into unless you keep a close eye on that and who other than someone that is on sight or looking for that will follow it every day. And you need to know what it means? Stuff like this is a huge disadvantage for a casual capper. It really is an edge to know all this stuff. And as you know, edges are key to winning in pari mutuel.

Pimlico's was hardly any run up at all going 6F. As a result, 23 was a quick opening quarter mile. At Laurel with a more typical run up that equated to about 22 2/5 opening quarter. All the others I mentioned I am pretty sure are still where they have always been.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Yeah get your drift. I am watching Woodbine's live feed today and they post the run up distance before the race. Thx for the take.

[str]

Yeah get your drift. I am watching Woodbine's live feed today and they post the run up distance before the race. Thx for the take.

99% of cappers did not know a run up existed in the 70's or 80's. Nice to know that the info is out there but many still won't know what to make of it or how important it might be.
At least the gap between understanding or knowing the info is shrinking. That makes it a fairer game and that's a good thing.

[JBEX]

hey str


the winner of the last race at gulfstream a mcl 10k was a first time starter who paid $46...the horse cost 130k as a yearling and is now 4yo..i've always felt in this situation toss the sale price because the horse is not starting till he's a 4yo and obviously things didn't pan out as the buyers hoped....his brisnet distance and fast track rating were significantly higher than all but 1 horse..this is because his sire and dam sire combined are much better than the rest and horses who run at this distance by them earn more than the others..do you think classy bloodlines
can still be a factor even when a horse like that is starting for such a low tag ?

[str]

hey str

the winner of the last race at gulfstream a mcl 10k was a first time starter who paid $46...the horse cost 130k as a yearling and is now 4yo..i've always felt in this situation toss the sale price because the horse is not starting till he's a 4yo and obviously things didn't pan out as the buyers hoped....his brisnet distance and fast track rating were significantly higher than all but 1 horse..this is because his sire and dam sire combined are much better than the rest and horses who run at this distance by them earn more than the others..do you think classy bloodlines
can still be a factor even when a horse like that is starting for such a low tag ?

Yes, it can be a factor at a low price. The low tag is probably a bowed tendon or something that will probably unravel sooner than later. (A total guess). And the horse might have been a give away so 10k isn't terrible if you payed nothing and only have training bills into the horse.

True that things went wrong somewhere along the line but the horse is still well bred and had a ton of potential. When they run against horses who are basically worth 3,500 after they win the maiden and nw/2 and nw/3 for 7500 or less unless a horse drastically improves, I would think that the well bred firster would be able to beat these at least once out of 5 or 6 times. So at 22-1 it would be hard for me to not at least play a saver on the horse sight unseen. That is purely a % vs. payout way of looking at it.

Short answer would have been Yes, I would play it blindly at 8-1 or more.
Easy for me to say after it wins though isn't it. I think it is kind of like a system play. The percentages are there so 22-1 makes it an auto play no matter if you win or lose. Because at that price will can't lose in the long run. I don't think. Lol.

[JBEX]

Yes, it can be a factor at a low price. The low tag is probably a bowed tendon or something that will probably unravel sooner than later. (A total guess). And the horse might have been a give away so 10k isn't terrible if you payed nothing and only have training bills into the horse.

True that things went wrong somewhere along the line but the horse is still well bred and had a ton of potential. When they run against horses who are basically worth 3,500 after they win the maiden and nw/2 and nw/3 for 7500 or less unless a horse drastically improves, I would think that the well bred firster would be able to beat these at least once out of 5 or 6 times. So at 22-1 it would be hard for me to not at least play a saver on the horse sight unseen. That is purely a % vs. payout way of looking at it.

Short answer would have been Yes, I would play it blindly at 8-1 or more.
Easy for me to say after it wins though isn't it. I think it is kind of like a system play. The percentages are there so 22-1 makes it an auto play no matter if you win or lose. Because at that price will can't lose in the long run. I don't think. Lol.

so you feel this is an advantage situation if it goes off at 8-1 or higher.. this one's rating was really a stick out vs the rest of this field and sure there will be more gray area situations then clear cut ones..if I see one of these along the way I'll mention it.. thanks str

[JBEX]

thought you'd find this interesting..here is an explanation of the pedigree ratings..it's a lot more involved than sire and dam sire stats

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=pedigreerate

[JBEX]

I see a horse at finger lakes tomorrow that lines up pretty well with this methodology

R4 #5 nucks (5-1)
state bred msw 1M 40y

1st career dirt route attempt and has the highest distance rating in this small 6 horse field (I'm excluding one who has a higher rating but with a ?? cause of a small sample) without going over the rest on straight up handicapping he looks good to me..wouldn't normally cap finger lakes but since I brought this angle up decided to take a look

[str]

I see a horse at finger lakes tomorrow that lines up pretty well with this methodology

R4 #5 nucks (5-1)
state bred msw 1M 40y

1st career dirt route attempt and has the highest distance rating in this small 6 horse field (I'm excluding one who has a higher rating but with a ?? cause of a small sample) without going over the rest on straight up handicapping he looks good to me..wouldn't normally cap finger lakes but since I brought this angle up decided to take a look

So this one has the higher Brisnet ratings but is not an expensive purchase against far inferior value horses right?

I think we are talking about 2 different things. I reread your post on the firster that paid 46.00. I do like the sale price to Md. 10 thing but when I responded I was not thinking in terms of higher Brisnet distance ratings . I was keyed in on the sale price vs. Maiden 10k's.
It will be interesting to follow the Brisnet ratings but while I am confident of what I posted about the expensive firster against cheapies I cannot fully speak to the Brisnet distance thing because I have never seen it or followed it over time.
It would make sense that it could be an effective tool but I don't want to assume it is .

As for the Lakes today, let's see what happens . I do like the stretch out. If the horse showed any kind of speed sprinting it should make the lead I guess? Or a trip laying 2nd? No form and no clue but that would make sense as that group is probably quite slow. Whoever steps into that race off open MSW races I would think would be a horse to consider. Sometimes in those races you get horses that are 0 for 10 in State Breds ( the same race) and just plod around for 3rd or 4th. Hard to use those I would assume but again, no form to see.
Let me know what happens. I will try and catch the chart this afternoon.

[JBEX]

So this one has the higher Brisnet ratings but is not an expensive purchase against far inferior value horses right?

I think we are talking about 2 different things. I reread your post on the firster that paid 46.00. I do like the sale price to Md. 10 thing but when I responded I was not thinking in terms of higher Brisnet distance ratings . I was keyed in on the sale price vs. Maiden 10k's.
It will be interesting to follow the Brisnet ratings but while I am confident of what I posted about the expensive firster against cheapies I cannot fully speak to the Brisnet distance thing because I have never seen it or followed it over time.
It would make sense that it could be an effective tool but I don't want to assume it is .

As for the Lakes today, let's see what happens . I do like the stretch out. If the horse showed any kind of speed sprinting it should make the lead I guess? Or a trip laying 2nd? No form and no clue but that would make sense as that group is probably quite slow. Whoever steps into that race off open MSW races I would think would be a horse to consider. Sometimes in those races you get horses that are 0 for 10 in State Breds ( the same race) and just plod around for 3rd or 4th. Hard to use those I would assume but again, no form to see.
Let me know what happens. I will try and catch the chart this afternoon.

in the other example I was using the brisnet ratings as my tool to gage.. even without that I know the sire and dam sire of that horse were better than or all in that race.. the ratings also take into account what kind of runner the dam was and if she had successful progeny how they ran..quite a lot of factors rolled up into one number and I think I have it right according to the explanation in the link I gave you


my opening statement was misleading and I apologize for that.. it's based on the high brisnet distance number for a horse that hasn't gone two turns yet but has shown good form sprinting.. this one has nothing to do with an expensive pedigree firster debuting in a maiden claiming race..


you can view the race if you like at trks2day.com

[str]

in the other example I was using the brisnet ratings as my tool to gage.. even without that I know the sire and dam sire of that horse were better than or all in that race.. the ratings also take into account what kind of runner the dam was and if she had successful progeny how they ran..quite a lot of factors rolled up into one number and I think I have it right according to the explanation in the link I gave you


my opening statement was misleading and I apologize for that.. it's based on the high brisnet distance number for a horse that hasn't gone two turns yet but has shown good form sprinting.. this one has nothing to do with an expensive pedigree firster debuting in a maiden claiming race..


you can view the race if you like at trks2day.com

Yes. I understand. No apology needed. It is a decent tool to use I assume. I always like a maiden stretching out 1st time that showed some speed. Typically gets a nice trip with plenty of opportunity to win if it is in them.
Let's see what happens.

[JBEX]

Yes. I understand. No apology needed. It is a decent tool to use I assume. I always like a maiden stretching out 1st time that showed some speed. Typically gets a nice trip with plenty of opportunity to win if it is in them.
Let's see what happens.

nope.. he was out there on a clear lead and gave it up pretty bad around the quarter pole (guessing) . fractions were fast for that track at that level I believe but could be wrong about that.. possibly the hot weather made the surface a little quicker but that's your territory str not mine

[JBEX]

hey str

check out the replay of R6 at penn national..if the link is no good they do have replays on their site

#3 for the moment

first time starter (ok I picked her lol)

http://www.hollywoodpnrc.com/racing/video-and-replay

[JBEX]

hey str

check out the replay of R6 at penn national..if the link is no good they do have replays on their site

#3 for the moment

first time starter (ok I picked her lol)


http://www.hollywoodpnrc.com/racing/video-and-replay

I noticed on the gallop out the jockey had a really tight hold of him standing up in the saddle..is this a sign that this race didn't zap him of energy and he did it within himself

[str]

I noticed on the gallop out the jockey had a really tight hold of him standing up in the saddle..is this a sign that this race didn't zap him of energy and he did it within himself

Nice pick. Probably a winner if he gets it together leaving the gate. Ran very well.

The gallop out:
Some horses pull more than others and are tougher to gallop from a strength or pulling against the reigns standpoint. This horse is one of those. He pulls harder and wants to keep going even if he is tired. That seems to be the case here. Why do I come up with that? Because as fast as he was running and as hard as he was trying they went the last 1/8th in 14+ and he could not get by the winner. He was tired from basically running all out for 5 1/2 furlongs. And he should have been. That is a long sustained full run.

While he galloped out seemingly strong, that looked to me to be simply how he does things on the track. That is, all in and pulling the rider all the way.
I know Bernie and he rarely runs a short horse. An old school trainer that trains them hard unless he has changed his ways which is rare in the business. ( That is not a knock, it is a style of training and perfectly acceptable).
The horse will tell him when to run back and without seeing the horse in the barn, I would guess he might run him back in about 4 weeks. Don't know if that means skipping this state bred spot once or not but with a 31k purse, the same state bred race seems logical.

Lastly, the horse hits the ground hard, which is because it almost assuredly toes in and is crooked legged. If you watch the run through the lane, the outside horse looks like a swimmer in the pool swimming a typical stroke and For the Moment looks like he is doing the breaststroke. His legs swing around instead of reach out straight. Nothing wrong with that, it is simply a conformation issue. And, I never saw a toed in horse that didn't try it's ass off in a race. Soundness might become an issue down the road and he wears fronts already but next time out, he will be real tough to deal with.
Nice catch on this one JBEX.

[JBEX]

Nice pick. Probably a winner if he gets it together leaving the gate. Ran very well.

The gallop out:
Some horses pull more than others and are tougher to gallop from a strength or pulling against the reigns standpoint. This horse is one of those. He pulls harder and wants to keep going even if he is tired. That seems to be the case here. Why do I come up with that? Because as fast as he was running and as hard as he was trying they went the last 1/8th in 14+ and he could not get by the winner. He was tired from basically running all out for 5 1/2 furlongs. And he should have been. That is a long sustained full run.

While he galloped out seemingly strong, that looked to me to be simply how he does things on the track. That is, all in and pulling the rider all the way.
I know Bernie and he rarely runs a short horse. An old school trainer that trains them hard unless he has changed his ways which is rare in the business. ( That is not a knock, it is a style of training and perfectly acceptable).
The horse will tell him when to run back and without seeing the horse in the barn, I would guess he might run him back in about 4 weeks. Don't know if that means skipping this state bred spot once or not but with a 31k purse, the same state bred race seems logical.

Lastly, the horse hits the ground hard, which is because it almost assuredly toes in and is crooked legged. If you watch the run through the lane, the outside horse looks like a swimmer in the pool swimming a typical stroke and For the Moment looks like he is doing the breaststroke. His legs swing around instead of reach out straight. Nothing wrong with that, it is simply a conformation issue. And, I never saw a toed in horse that didn't try it's ass off in a race. Soundness might become an issue down the road and he wears fronts already but next time out, he will be real tough to deal with.
Nice catch on this one JBEX.

wow i'm always amazed at the detailed things you pick up when you watch a race..even the fact that you're a trainer
it's still very impressive


the thing that really struck me was the acceleration in the backstretch..he just seemed to be flying by those horses so effortlessly on the rail..maybe it just was a bad bunch as we're talking sb msw @ penn national..still like the way he dug in to the wire and just missed..running in tight quarters on the rail and hanging in i'm sure you'd agree
is a good sign of positive things down the road for a. newbie

[str]

wow i'm always amazed at the detailed things you pick up when you watch a race..even the fact that you're a trainer
it's still very impressive


the thing that really struck me was the acceleration in the backstretch..he just seemed to be flying by those horses so effortlessly on the rail..maybe it just was a bad bunch as we're talking sb msw @ penn national..still like the way he dug in to the wire and just missed..running in tight quarters on the rail and hanging in i'm sure you'd agree
is a good sign of positive things down the road for a. newbie

Once the clock started it didn't matter who the quality was down the backside. He easily cut 21 2/5th for the opening 1/4. He certainly made up 5 lengths by the 1/2 mile pole to only be 2 back.
He dug in while tired the last 1/8th in close quarters. But like I said about horses that toe inwards and run with that paddle to their stride. I was around plenty of them and they all run their eyeballs out everytime the gate opens. He is no exception.

[JBEX]

Once the clock started it didn't matter who the quality was down the backside. He easily cut 21 2/5th for the opening 1/4. He certainly made up 5 lengths by the 1/2 mile pole to only be 2 back.
He dug in while tired the last 1/8th in close quarters. But like I said about horses that toe inwards and run with that paddle to their stride. I was around plenty of them and they all run their eyeballs out everytime the gate opens. He is no exception.

I looked at it again and did kind of notice what you were saying about his stride..seems like not a bad trade off to get a good runner early on with possible issues down the road..thought I might have been on the 2nd coming of run happy as his debut was similar early on at turfway park (I posted that race on here a ways back)..guessing he's not toe in being a stallion at claiborne now lol

[JBEX]

btw if you didn't look at my small track thread yesterday lacey gaudet had a first out winner (2yo)in the 1st at delaware ..just ask ol' blue eyes lol

[str]

btw if you didn't look at my small track thread yesterday lacey gaudet had a first out winner (2yo)in the 1st at delaware ..just ask ol' blue eyes lol

Lacey will undoubtedly be excellent with firsters, especially 2 year olds. That was Eddie's strongest suit back in the day which he passed to his wife Linda and of course they passed to Lacey.
I was just thinking about him the other day. What a guy !
Probably should have remembered to share that with you awhile back. Sorry about that.

[JBEX]

hey str


in the 60's and 70's did tracks (or just md circuit which you know) get a pretty good turnout on a weekday ?? my involvement didn't begin till the latter part of the 70's (I'm 55) so I missed most of that.
dad wasn't a horse player so I didn't get the real early exposure although he was at the belmont stakes in 73..in the 50's and maybe into the 60's was the track a dress up event for a lot of the attendees ?? when I see pictures it sure looks that way..how times have changed !