Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

For someone that has this kind of respect and knowledge of the sport is incredible but to actually take the time to share in the way you have putting pen to paper or forum post in this case is nothing short of amazing. A big thanks!

All I wanted to do with all of this when I started this thread, was to help people better understand the game that was so much a part of my life for a long time. It seems as though it has helped people and for that I am glad.
But it also helped me to remember, and after stepping away, rethink and even mentally relive some of the best early years of my adult life. For that, I am grateful to all those that asked questions as well as the format itself that allowed me to be able to reflect on decades of friendships and memories.

So you are welcome and thank you and everyone else that has participated as well.

[harthebar]

All I wanted to do with all of this when I started this thread, was to help people better understand the game that was so much a part of my life for a long time. It seems as though it has helped people and for that I am glad.
But it also helped me to remember, and after stepping away, rethink and even mentally relive some of the best early years of my adult life. For that, I am grateful to all those that asked questions as well as the format itself that allowed me to be able to reflect on decades of friendships and memories.

So you are welcome and thank you and everyone else that has participated as well.

Nicely said str. ...and what we're the odds doing this thread. And end up knowing your horse double bunctious. And aunt nancy............. on my side. . . Lol. I enjoy reading and learning from a your post ...

[Easy-Rider 66]

STR: I echo Hart's sentiments. Well written response. Any thoughts on the upcoming Pegasus Battle with Chrome breaking from post 12 and Arrogate from the rail? Also if you happen to take a look at the PP's any thoughts on Noble Bird? Thx in advance.

[str]

Nicely said str. ...and what we're the odds doing this thread. And end up knowing your horse double bunctious. And aunt nancy............. on my side. . . Lol. I enjoy reading and learning from a your post ...

Thanks Har !

[str]

STR: I echo Hart's sentiments. Well written response. Any thoughts on the upcoming Pegasus Battle with Chrome breaking from post 12 and Arrogate from the rail? Also if you happen to take a look at the PP's any thoughts on Noble Bird? Thx in advance.

I want to see the pp's on that race.

I will be looking for them on Sat.

Will be happy to pass on anything I see

Thanks Easy !

[Easy-Rider 66]

STR: How concerned would you be with this issue for Arrogate? Thx.

[str]

STR: How concerned would you be with this issue for Arrogate? Thx.

The quick answer if you need time to handicap. NO !

A thorough answer is below to read if anyone cares and if they have time.



The actual sentence doesn't make sense Easy. It's close but I think he meant " where an abscess was". Hard to say for sure.

If the horse had an "active" abscess he would be on antibiotics and therefore not race. He also would have been lame most likely, albeit for a day or 2 until the antibiotic started working. This can be treated with a milder antibiotic but it still would require at least 3-5 days between the last dose and today's race. Not sure of withdrawal times these days.
Maybe ( probably) it was an "old" abscess. That would make sense. An abscess is like an infection under you toe nail for instance. In a horses case, it's trapped within the hoof. Most likely from a bruise from stepping on a stone or something like that. The bruise turns into a blood blister of sorts and because it is trapped within the foot ( like a really thick toenail), the body has it exit at the path of least resistance. The foot becomes hot and lameness almost always occurs. Once it does, the blacksmith needs to dig for it by cutting or digging at the foot ( hoof) until he finds it. Once it is located, it bleeds immediately. But it is not exposed meat in the foot in most cases, it is the pocket of blood blister that formed. It smells terrible , like an infection would. Like popping a huge zit only in the hoof. Relief is very quick for the horse. You soak the foot, put a foot poultice on it , draw out any remaining infection and they typically miss 2-3 days of training.
As the foot continues to grow, the digging out moves up the foot towards the quick and skin line just like your toe nail would. If the digging was in the hoof wall, as it sounds like, 3/4ering the shoe makes perfect sense. It will help take pressure off the exact spot so it might not split up into the quick or skin. THAT, basically, is what a 1/4 crack is.

So.. because California horses have always seem to have foot issues ( its a diet thing out there, don't worry about it), the Calif. trainers see it more often than most others.
He deals with this stuff everyday. And, there are several other reasons to 3/4 a horse as well. Sometimes they hit themselves on the hock area with the back shoe because of a stride problem. that type shoe will have the foot break out enough to avoid that. Sometimes they lean to one side or the other instead of totally balanced. 3/4ering might help even that out somewhat.
I could bore you more but it's just something that trainers need to do with some horses and just sometimes. If he gets beat it won't be because he was 3/4erd. It COULD be because he missed time or something like that but that is doubtful as well. So " No excuses" is a very fair statement in regards to this .

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thx for the detailed info.

[str]

STR: I echo Hart's sentiments. Well written response. Any thoughts on the upcoming Pegasus Battle with Chrome breaking from post 12 and Arrogate from the rail? Also if you happen to take a look at the PP's any thoughts on Noble Bird? Thx in advance.

Looking at the race, it seems that the pace has to be quicker than the riders near the lead would otherwise want.

Arrogate has to go so as to not get shuffled.

Noble Bird will need to be at full run to outrun Chrome.

Chrome has such a short run to the 1st turn, it would be so incredible for him to break and not be pushed waay out by several others that it seems to me that his rider must commit to going and then hope he can get the horse to take a breath down the backside. He will be lucky to not get a really tough trip. A trip that would doom most horses but this is Chrome so lets see if he can overcome a terrible post.

Arrogate has to break and that's about it. The one post has him forwardly placed unless he misses the start.

So when you add up all the pros of what they have done and figures, etc. and weigh the cons of what each horse has to overcome, I would have to play the percentages. Those point to Arrogate.

Chrome will show up but he really did get unlucky with the draw.

As for a long shot, I will use Shaman Ghost. He ran great with lasix in the Woodward and was bumped at the start and they walked the dog in front of him (slow half in 48) in the Clark. He has won over the track and I have always liked the every other race angle that he has run since Jerkins took over his training.

1 -7,12 would be my key play. Sure, you can use Keen Ice or something like that but that will be a program triple so the heck with that.

I would also box it though to cover the 12 overcoming a ton but more importantly to cover the 7 lighting up the board.

Hope that helps.

Good luck in the race Easy and of course, everybody else.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thx again. Might need a shot in a contest so will give the #7 a look.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Good call STR. 1/7 exacta. Paid $16.90 for $1.

[JBEX]

hey str..put up videos of 73 belmont stakes and 88 breeders cup distaff with personal ensign facing off against derby winner winning colors..on the former read turcotte once said something to the effect that secreteriat felt like he was just gliding along..smooth and efficient strides that weren't taking much out of him..he sensed they were going fast early but because he was doing this so easy didn't want to try and reign him in at all..can you see that when you watch the video ??I'm talking about the fluency of his stride and how easy he was gliding along.I thought I kind of noticed it ..maybe a good comparison would be a baseball hitter with a very mechanically perfect swing

on the other video (my favorite) remember being at the local otb watching. .personal ensign a truly phenomenal horse retiring undefeated. think one of her offspring won juvenile fillies and that mare produced another juvenile fillies winner (my flag,storm flag flying)..but my question a simple one about derby winner winning colors..you definitely can see how much bigger she is than most of the others wouldn't you say ? I do remember at the time hearing the comments on her size but would you say even a casual observer would see that by watching this video ?always uncertain if I'm seeing these things correctly whereas for you it's probably second nature

posts 1148/1150 contest thread

[str]

hey str..put up videos of 73 belmont stakes and 88 breeders cup distaff with personal ensign facing off against derby winner winning colors..on the former read turcotte once said something to the effect that secreteriat felt like he was just gliding along..smooth and efficient strides that weren't taking much out of him..he sensed they were going fast early but because he was doing this so easy didn't want to try and reign him in at all..can you see that when you watch the video ??I'm talking about the fluency of his stride and how easy he was gliding along.I thought I kind of noticed it ..maybe a good comparison would be a baseball hitter with a very mechanically perfect swing

on the other video (my favorite) remember being at the local otb watching. .personal ensign a truly phenomenal horse retiring undefeated. think one of her offspring won juvenile fillies and that mare produced another juvenile fillies winner (my flag,storm flag flying)..but my question a simple one about derby winner winning colors..you definitely can see how much bigger she is than most of the others wouldn't you say ? I do remember at the time hearing the comments on her size but would you say even a casual observer would see that by watching this video ?always uncertain if I'm seeing these things correctly whereas for you it's probably second nature

posts 1148/1150 contest thread

Q. put up videos of 73 belmont stakes and 88 breeders cup distaff with personal ensign facing off against derby winner winning colors..on the former read turcotte once said something to the effect that secreteriat felt like he was just gliding along..smooth and efficient strides that weren't taking much out of him..he sensed they were going fast early but because he was doing this so easy didn't want to try and reign him in at all..can you see that when you watch the video ??I'm talking about the fluency of his stride and how easy he was gliding along.I thought I kind of noticed it ..maybe a good comparison would be a baseball hitter with a very mechanically perfect swing

A. Yes I can see it clearly . But I could not when he did it in 1973. I was a groom and had not yet learned that.

I think a really sweet swing in baseball is a fair type of comparison.

If you want to see Secretariat do something amazing, watch the Preakness from 3 weeks prior. Watch him break and be sluggish early which he did plenty of times in his career, and find a gear after about a quarter of a mile. That move around the clubhouse turn was incredible. I watched thousands of races at Pimlico and never saw anything like what he did that day and the ease in which he did it.
The link is below.

Q. .but my question a simple one about derby winner winning colors..you definitely can see how much bigger she is than most of the others wouldn't you say ? I do remember at the time hearing the comments on her size but would you say even a casual observer would see that by watching this video ?always uncertain if I'm seeing these things correctly whereas for you it's probably second nature

A. No. A casual observer would not see that on the video.

But if you are not a casual fan you sure can. Stop the video just before they spring the latch to start the race and you can see Stevens is much taller than all the other riders sitting on their horses. Looks like he's sitting on a phone book or something. Lol.


The announcer says that Turcotte is sending Secretariat to the lead. Too funny. He wasn't sending him, he was holding on for dear life !

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiSprS-4OfRAhUPySYKHRE4D1IQtwIIIjAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DyfWwIyQYkgc&usg=AFQjCNGSif2ZddpPyTZSiJYd5MxYFj6M7w&sig2=lAkFeu0xqwdCZ-mwfMp1rA

[JBEX]

The announcer says that Turcotte is sending Secretariat to the lead. Too funny. He wasn't sending him, he was holding on for dear life !

honesty wouldn't have known that but makes sense..guess you just let him do what he wants early on

that preakness move was breathtaking. .geez was he moving

yes see what you're talking about with winning colors ..that brief moment in the gate really highlights it

thanks again

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: Have a Question about the Herd Nature of Horses. Received some info from the West Coast Handicapping report yesterday and they mentioned that since horses are herd animals when they are able "to lead the Pack" they can gain instant confidence. They also stated that a horse in suspect form is more likely to regain form when on the lead and not running on late. Can you elaborate? Thx.

[str]

Hey STR: Have a Question about the Herd Nature of Horses. Received some info from the West Coast Handicapping report yesterday and they mentioned that since horses are herd animals when they are able "to lead the Pack" they can gain instant confidence. They also stated that a horse in suspect form is more likely to regain form when on the lead and not running on late. Can you elaborate? Thx.

Q. since horses are herd animals when they are able "to lead the Pack" they can gain instant confidence.

A. Well.... I suppose, but... most speed horses that fade when hooked before the 1/4 pole ( a 1/4 to go NOT after a 1/4 mile of the race. I see this used backwards all the time and think it really messes up people trying to learn. It's confusing to say the least.)

So what I have seen time and again is that a pure speed horse makes it into the stretch solo , that horse tries really hard to hang in. But hook that horse into or half way around the turn and most fold up. ( clean right eye stuff).

So I don't think they gain instant confidence at all. I think those types gain that confidence during the race and especially if they are still alone around the far turn where they are often times caught or are having pressure put on them. ( Don't think for a minute that horses don't know every area of the track and what happens around that area after they have run multiple times. They know what they know and they know exactly where they are on the track and they know their surroundings incredibly well. Anything changes or is new, they see it instantly.)

Some closers or stalkers draw off when they make the lead but what about those hangers that just draw even or make the lead and slow down? Just like people, there are multiple category's of types of personalities and thought processes. I think that anytime a blanket statement is made and the dreaded "they" meaning all horses " can" gain instant confidence, the reader must instantly understand that while the statement can and IMO does have "some" merit, it is up to the reader to make sure they apply the "they" and "can" to each horse they are looking at. Just because they " can" doesn't mean they will.

Like most things, for some it's spot on, for some, it comes with a host of needs to go along with it, and for some, it does not help whatsoever.

As long as you use that knowledge and assign it correctly, it is a solid piece of info. But used as a blanket across the board rule, it will not work.

Q. They also stated that a horse in suspect form is more likely to regain form when on the lead and not running on late.

A. It is easier to run wire to wire than it is coming from behind. That is a given. But I could have, and did often enough, take any kind of style runner, that was off form and not able to gain any confidence in Md. , try as I might, and run that horse at Penn Nat. or C.T. against much weaker and most all of them crushed the field when I did it. Then, it was up to each individual horse to build on that mental boost and it was up to me to put that horse in future spots that gave them a solid chance to be able to build on that easy win. But, both parties, the horse AND the trainer, needed to do their parts.

So I'm not so sure about that. Certainly with some, but not with all. I guess it goes back to my 1st answer about horses are not all the same. Use that tool as well but only as one small piece of a lot of pieces of a puzzle.

To back up what they said though, the horse in my avatar was a mid pack or back of the pack sprinter his whole life. Had not won in over a year I'm pretty sure and his form was pretty bad. I just wanted a shot with him, so I claimed him. He ran last the 1st time I ran him back after the claim for about 10k or something like that. I dropped him to beaten 5K and ran him long around 2 turns as his form looked terrible for the last year while running 6 and 7 furlong one turn races , he made the lead and won. He didn't lose again until the day I lost him about 6-7 months later. I wrote about him in this thread. So, his new found distance and running style for HIM, might have fit what they are talking about. Of course there were other things we did as well but the change in distance was a big deal.

Good questions Easy.

[Easy-Rider 66]

STR: One more question for now. When analyzing a race specifically the speed do you favor a speed horse clearing early? Or would you rather the horse have some speed to his inside and battle on assuming that his right eye is clean? I have been putting more credence for a speed horse on the outside if he will not clear early because of speed to his inside. Am I mistaken? Thx.

[str]

STR: One more question for now. When analyzing a race specifically the speed do you favor a speed horse clearing early? Or would you rather the horse have some speed to his inside and battle on assuming that his right eye is clean? I have been putting more credence for a speed horse on the outside if he will not clear early because of speed to his inside. Am I mistaken? Thx.

Anytime a speed can clear and run solo, that is always the easiest position for them.

That is always preferable to any duel.

But in a duel of equals, the outside will be less intimidated and usually outlast the inside, pinned, speed.

Just make sure that any speed horse you look at can actually win in your opinion.

Remember, duels are a great set up for a solo horse laying 3rd, if indeed that occurs providing that 3rd horse can at least close somewhat.

Hope that helps.

Don't want you to be confused or misled so fire away with this line of questioning if it is at all confusing.

Anything but total clarity on this can be a bad deal so don't be shy. Do reread what I had said about clean right eyes and let's make sure we are talking about the right things.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thx for the clarification. I think the main thing like you said if the horse clears is he good enough to score. That's the tough part.

[JBEX]

hey str..wanted to ask you a couple of questions about a late 80's preakness in regards to the ride and effort of the horse ..it was a huge race for the loser but I'd like your opinion on how good..you were probably there !! feel free to take a guess which one if you'd like..ok if I post the video in here?

[str]

hey str..wanted to ask you a couple of questions about a late 80's preakness in regards to the ride and effort of the horse ..it was a huge race for the loser but I'd like your opinion on how good..you were probably there !! feel free to take a guess which one if you'd like..ok if I post the video in here?

I was definitely there !

The Sunday Silence/Easy Goer race was 89 I think. That was talked about with the objection by the 2nd horse after losing by a nose.

The Alysheba race was somewhere in there as well. Was it one of them?

Go ahead and post it and ask away.

[JBEX]

yup 89 sunday silence, easy goer..the move easy goer made on the backstretch on his own was impressive..do you think pat day should have tried to reel him in or with a horse of his stature and ability just let him go as he did..considering the premature move the way he dug in on the rail all the way to the wire very impressive don't you think? the head tilt to the right in the stretch on easy goer
his way of reacting to tight quarters and expressing he wasn't intimidated and was in it to the end ..maybe that's a bit of a reach but figured I'd throw it out there

[str]

yup 89 sunday silence, easy goer..the move easy goer made on the backstretch on his own was impressive..do you think pat day should have tried to reel him in or with a horse of his stature and ability just let him go as he did..considering the premature move the way he dug in on the rail all the way to the wire very impressive don't you think? the head tilt to the right in the stretch on easy goer
his way of reacting to tight quarters and expressing he wasn't intimidated and was in it to the end ..maybe that's a bit of a reach but figured I'd throw it out there

Q. .the move easy goer made on the backstretch on his own was impressive..do you think pat day should have tried to reel him in or with a horse of his stature and ability just let him go as he did

A. Easy goer was a big strong horse. Trying to reel him in at that point would have been a mistake and Day knew it. He was there comfortably, and within himself. A heavy restraint would have done nothing but expend more energy at that point IMO. Once he got head and head for the lead, Day gave him a nice breather around the turn. I know, they went 1:09 and change, but it was all well within the horses stride and ability and the breather was around the turn. More on that in a minute.

Because Easy goer was a big thick guy, when Sunday Silence made his move( Sunday being more of a sleek thin type athlete whereas Easy was a big thick athlete), as Sunday got up even with Easy, , it took getting out of the far turn and into the stretch to get the whole package moving again. Once he got it together, he caught back up and it was a great duel.

Q. .considering the premature move the way he dug in on the rail all the way to the wire very impressive don't you think?

A. Absolutely, Yes. He was a great horse.

Q.the head tilt to the right in the stretch on easy goer
his way of reacting to tight quarters and expressing he wasn't intimidated and was in it to the end ..maybe that's a bit of a reach but figured I'd throw it out there

A. Sunday Silence's rider rode a beautiful race and what he did probably was what held off Easy Goer. It certainly helped hold him off.

Here is what I am talking about.

When Sunday's rider goes to switch sticks from his left hand to his right hand, Silence drifts slightly. While that was happening, Day on Easy goer was whipping left handed which is how they both started out with the whip( in there left hands). But before Day could switch to his right hand, Pat V. takes another cross on the reigns and moves Sunday over to make it tight on Easy Goer ( 1:54).
That move prevents Day from being able to switch the stick in his right hand. He has no room to use the stick right handed. So Day has no choice but to finish the race having never switched sticks and therefore never hitting Easy goer right handed.

All Day could do was what he did which was to take another cross with the reigns at the 1/16th pole ( 2:05) and just as he does that, Sunday leans on him and they come together slightly. Day has no room to do anything but what he did which was to turn Easy's head so he could look right at Sunday and see if, as a last resort, he could get Easy to fight back to the front at the last second. Try as he might, he could not do it.

One thing that is rarely spoken about is at 1:21 of the race, Easy squeezes Sunday out of a hole and costs Sunday about 2 lengths . I look at it as a payback through the stretch. The Stewards did as well. It was all great , classic, race riding by both riders.

Lastly on this rivalry, as I spoke about earlier, Sunday being a thin agile type could handle the turns at mile tracks with ease. Easy Goer struggled with one mile turns. He was just made differently and was not as agile around them. That is why Belmont suited him so well. And it was his home track. But the wide turns helped Easy out.

Fun to remember that stuff.

Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

Q. .the move easy goer made on the backstretch on his own was impressive..do you think pat day should have tried to reel him in or with a horse of his stature and ability just let him go as he did

A. Easy goer was a big strong horse. Trying to reel him in at that point would have been a mistake and Day knew it. He was there comfortably, and within himself. A heavy restraint would have done nothing but expend more energy at that point IMO. Once he got head and head for the lead, Day gave him a nice breather around the turn. I know, they went 1:09 and change, but it was all well within the horses stride and ability and the breather was around the turn. More on that in a minute.

Because Easy goer was a big thick guy, when Sunday Silence made his move( Sunday being more of a sleek thin type athlete whereas Easy was a big thick athlete), as Sunday got up even with Easy, , it took getting out of the far turn and into the stretch to get the whole package moving again. Once he got it together, he caught back up and it was a great duel.

Q. .considering the premature move the way he dug in on the rail all the way to the wire very impressive don't you think?

A. Absolutely, Yes. He was a great horse.

Q.the head tilt to the right in the stretch on easy goer
his way of reacting to tight quarters and expressing he wasn't intimidated and was in it to the end ..maybe that's a bit of a reach but figured I'd throw it out there

A. Sunday Silence's rider rode a beautiful race and what he did probably was what held off Easy Goer. It certainly helped hold him off.

Here is what I am talking about.

When Sunday's rider goes to switch sticks from his left hand to his right hand, Silence drifts slightly. While that was happening, Day on Easy goer was whipping left handed which is how they both started out with the whip( in there left hands). But before Day could switch to his right hand, Pat V. takes another cross on the reigns and moves Sunday over to make it tight on Easy Goer ( 1:54).
That move prevents Day from being able to switch the stick in his right hand. He has no room to use the stick right handed. So Day has no choice but to finish the race having never switched sticks and therefore never hitting Easy goer right handed.

All Day could do was what he did which was to take another cross with the reigns at the 1/16th pole ( 2:05) and just as he does that, Sunday leans on him and they come together slightly. Day has no room to do anything but what he did which was to turn Easy's head so he could look right at Sunday and see if, as a last resort, he could get Easy to fight back to the front at the last second. Try as he might, he could not do it.

One thing that is rarely spoken about is at 1:21 of the race, Easy squeezes Sunday out of a hole and costs Sunday about 2 lengths . I look at it as a payback through the stretch. The Stewards did as well. It was all great , classic, race riding by both riders.

Lastly on this rivalry, as I spoke about earlier, Sunday being a thin agile type could handle the turns at mile tracks with ease. Easy Goer struggled with one mile turns. He was just made differently and was not as agile around them. That is why Belmont suited him so well. And it was his home track. But the wide turns helped Easy out.

Fun to remember that stuff.

Thanks JBEX.

had a hunch you would say pat day shouldn't have tried to reel him in..that would take more out of him than letting him run free the way he did. .definitely saw how ss had to take up at 1:21 in the backstretch...interesting that might have been going through his mind mid stretch with it all on the line..just to see if I understand the stick issue..lefthanded encourages right lead and vice versa??why would day want to switch to the righthanded stick in the stretch..wouldn't that force a switch to the left lead which you don't want ?? I never can get this stuff straight for whatever reason..is it because in tight quarters close to the rail you want to be on a left lead?

[str]

had a hunch you would say pat day shouldn't have tried to reel him in..that would take more out of him than letting him run free the way he did. .definitely saw how ss had to take up at 1:21 in the backstretch...interesting that might have been going through his mind mid stretch with it all on the line..just to see if I understand the stick issue..lefthanded encourages right lead and vice versa??why would day want to switch to the righthanded stick in the stretch..wouldn't that force a switch to the left lead which you don't want ?? I never can get this stuff straight for whatever reason..is it because in tight quarters close to the rail you want to be on a left lead?

Sorry for the delay JBEX.

Q. lefthanded encourages right lead and vice versa?

A. NO. Leads and the stick have nothing to do with one another. One of the first things horses are taught is to switch leads into and out of the turn. Right lead on straightaways and left lead on turns. Assuming U.S. racing counterclockwise of course.
This has nothing to do with the stick. It should be instinctive. If a rider uses a stick to try and get a horse to switch leads, it rarely works and is almost always a lost effort.

Q. why would day want to switch to the righthanded stick in the stretch ?

A. Because the stick is the element of surprise . In a perfect world, hit them once or twice with one hand, switch and do it once or twice with the other hand and if needed switch back and do it once or twice more. Depending on the situation, maybe a 3rd time or something like that but past that, it becomes less effective with each strike, usually to the point that it does not help much at all.

Q. wouldn't that force a switch to the left lead which you don't want ?

A. No. The turn or a horse getting very tired on that particular lead will have the horse switch.

Q. I never can get this stuff straight for whatever reason..is it because in tight quarters close to the rail you want to be on a left lead?

A. Again, It's not a lead thing. Day would have liked to switch to the right hand at some point to get that quick burst response from the initial hit. He was not allowed to do that because he had no room to do it. He would have hit SS or SS's rider so it just was not available.

When you see riders using the stick to switch leads, the horse has not switched for a reason. Usually it is a bad habit or the horse is not comfortable on that lead. Often times the discomfort is caused by the horse having a problem somewhere that being on that lead pinches.
Almost every time a rider forces a horse to switch leads, if they do, they fade.

Feel free to follow up as this is kind of important from a replay watching standpoint, both the stick, but more importantly the leads. It's damn near impossible to win a race on one lead. They just run out of gas.

Hope that helps.

[Thunderground]

Str, hope you are well.

Quick question about smaller tracks. Do you think the trainers at smaller tracks could have a more 'even' approach over the whole year, because they're not aiming for the big races?

[str]

Str, hope you are well.

Quick question about smaller tracks. Do you think the trainers at smaller tracks could have a more 'even' approach over the whole year, because they're not aiming for the big races?

The answer is yes.

It is a race to race style of training not a build up for May or November.

With any moderate priced claimer, you can't build for certain months. It is race by race and meet by meet. There is no more significance in a 5 or 10k claimer in May or November than it is in February.

Because claiming was my game, it was claim them, see what I felt was needed, do what was deemed necessary to improve them if that fit, which it usually did, and earn money.

Yes, I trained plenty of allowance horses and a few stakes horses but again, they were not grade 1 let's point for a peak race type runners. We were trying to win a condition allowance race or a Stake that was right in front of us. Not what you see in classic races at all.

It's a different game.

I think that is why you hear about how some handicappers feel they have more success in maidens and claimers and maybe an a other, 2other and 3other races than they do in Stakes, especially major Stakes. Others like the opposite. A large part of that IMO is the style in which they handicap and things some players look for more so than others or how some angles carry more weight than others which each handicapper.

Great question.

Nice to hear from you Thunderground.

[Thunderground]

Thank for the insight.

My handicapping is form-of-day based. Best for this are even-playing fields, of any kind. Top or bottom. Big stakes or maiden claimers, as long as the horses come in at a similar preparation level. In other words, the main element that throws off a form-of-day approach are patterns created by trainers. And those patterns, I was surprised to note, are far less dramatic, if they even exist, at smaller tracks. So having you confirm that is very helpful.

Another difference I noted is that between MSW races for up-and-coming horses and MSW for older horses. Trainers may have a lot (of hopes) riding on the younger horses, but the picture shifts a lot later on when they haven't won. So the MSW for older horses have more of an even playing field, but the big trainers seem to dominate the MSW for promising young horses. It's not a question as such, but I'm asking you to point out errors in my thinking, and add things I'm not seeing (which are many).

[str]

Thank for the insight.

My handicapping is form-of-day based. Best for this are even-playing fields, of any kind. Top or bottom. Big stakes or maiden claimers, as long as the horses come in at a similar preparation level. In other words, the main element that throws off a form-of-day approach are patterns created by trainers. And those patterns, I was surprised to note, are far less dramatic, if they even exist, at smaller tracks. So having you confirm that is very helpful.

Another difference I noted is that between MSW races for up-and-coming horses and MSW for older horses. Trainers may have a lot (of hopes) riding on the younger horses, but the picture shifts a lot later on when they haven't won. So the MSW for older horses have more of an even playing field, but the big trainers seem to dominate the MSW for promising young horses. It's not a question as such, but I'm asking you to point out errors in my thinking, and add things I'm not seeing (which are many).

That's correct.

Older Maidens special weight are the same as maiden claimers. They are just trying to win so it is race to race.

Babies, or even very early 3 year old maiden special weights still have a " hope of promise" type attitude around them. So the trainer might have the horse all tuned up for the 1st time out or maybe not, as each trainer is different.
And when big name trainers dominate 2 year old MSW races usually it is simply a case of overwhelming the opposition with a better quality of animal.
Often these days, you see trainers run a firster without lasix and add it 2nd time out. In the vast majority of races, that was a game plan before the 1st race was run. That trainer wanted to win, but was not going to have the horse all amped up for it's 1st race. Usually that is a sign that they have high hopes for the horse and want to build from race to race.

Others, DO want to have them all amped up 1st out. A lot of this is pedigree or what the trainer does. A lot of this can be read about these days with the 1st time starter % or 1st lasix % and so on. But when Mott has one all amped up 1st time out , it is a pedigree thing NOT his typical style.

Back in the day, none of that existed. What an edge for those that understood this stuff back then.

I see no errors in what you said.

Just wanted to clarify why Pletcher and those types dominate the way they do with firsters. It's his style. He wants the Belmont, Saratoga, Monmouth 2 year old Stakes and he wins a lot of them. And, they are usually just better.

Others want to point for the long term.

Baffert can play the game both ways. What a luxury. All his horses when they arrive are potential stars. He can choose each path as they go. Over the years he has gotten much better at it, obviously.

[JBEX]

Sorry for the delay JBEX.

Q. lefthanded encourages right lead and vice versa?

A. NO. Leads and the stick have nothing to do with one another. One of the first things horses are taught is to switch leads into and out of the turn. Right lead on straightaways and left lead on turns. Assuming U.S. racing counterclockwise of course.
This has nothing to do with the stick. It should be instinctive. If a rider uses a stick to try and get a horse to switch leads, it rarely works and is almost always a lost effort.

Q. why would day want to switch to the righthanded stick in the stretch ?

A. Because the stick is the element of surprise . In a perfect world, hit them once or twice with one hand, switch and do it once or twice with the other hand and if needed switch back and do it once or twice more. Depending on the situation, maybe a 3rd time or something like that but past that, it becomes less effective with each strike, usually to the point that it does not help much at all.

Q. wouldn't that force a switch to the left lead which you don't want ?

A. No. The turn or a horse getting very tired on that particular lead will have the horse switch.

Q. I never can get this stuff straight for whatever reason..is it because in tight quarters close to the rail you want to be on a left lead?

A. Again, It's not a lead thing. Day would have liked to switch to the right hand at some point to get that quick burst response from the initial hit. He was not allowed to do that because he had no room to do it. He would have hit SS or SS's rider so it just was not available.

When you see riders using the stick to switch leads, the horse has not switched for a reason. Usually it is a bad habit or the horse is not comfortable on that lead. Often times the discomfort is caused by the horse having a problem somewhere that being on that lead pinches.
Almost every time a rider forces a horse to switch leads, if they do, they fade.

Feel free to follow up as this is kind of important from a replay watching standpoint, both the stick, but more importantly the leads. It's damn near impossible to win a race on one lead. They just run out of gas.

Hope that helps.

no problem str and glad to finally know for sure how that stuff works..had a horse towards the beginning of our contest that didn't switch leads throughout the stretch (at least most of it)..announcer even said so which doesn't happen to often..wound up losing by less than a length
and missing 2nd by a head at 41-1..think if he had might have got him up..on another note beyer said easy goer was the fastest horse he had with his figures besides secretariat..that was 3 years prior to the time they were published in the drf so only his subscribers would have had access to that info...was a fun time before simulcasting so you couldn't see the west coat horses from the east and vice versa..when they came back for the belmont the fans were really rooting for the home team and he came through big time as we all know. .alydar had some string of nice horses that time. .turkoman,alysheba and of course easy goer..pretty good bunch in a 5 year span...thanks again

[Thunderground]

Thanks str. Much appreciated as always.

Does a trainer who is pointing at big races train his other horses (not necessarily pointing at big races) along the same routine at that time? I'm asking because trainers can go through major hot streaks.

[str]

Thanks str. Much appreciated as always.

Does a trainer who is pointing at big races train his other horses (not necessarily pointing at big races) along the same routine at that time? I'm asking because trainers can go through major hot streaks.

Q. Does a trainer who is pointing at big races train his other horses (not necessarily pointing at big races) along the same routine at that time?

A. No. Each horse is trained specifically for their own individual needs . The only exception would be if for instance a horse needed company and no other horse fit into that program at the time. The trainer would either see if the trainer next door had one like that, and if so, they would coordinate a time each day that they would meet up on the horse path and help each other out, or the trainer would find a calm quiet type horse of their own and babysit by being in company with the horse in need of it.

Q. I'm asking because trainers can go through major hot streaks.

A. Early in my career and once I had about 20 or more in my barn, I had a hot and cold streak about once a year each so it seemed. It took me about 4-5 years as a trainer to figure it out. Looking back, that amount of time to get this right is just sad. Early twenties does have it's hurdles I guess. lol.

While there can be many reasons for a streak either way, most times it is that the trainer has been winning with horses that are losing once in a lifetime conditions, like Maiden, nw2,nw3 a other than, etc. Or, the had claimers that were winning but were claimed away.
To replace those horses claimed away, in my day, all claims had to raise up by 25% in claiming price for the 1st 30 days. So that alone slowed you down some. But those nw horses, when they won, had to run against open company and therefore better horses. Once they started getting in tougher races, winning became more difficult. In my case in Md. , I trained for plenty of claim only people but also for plenty of breeders. You just cant tell most breeders that their horse can't win anymore after a race or 2 although it was obvious to me. They usually asked you to try going long, or turf, or a bug boy, or a girl rider, don't hit them with the stick and blah, blah, blah. Next thing you know, those 4 horses that all won 2 or 3 races each at the last meet when you were "hot", all lose 4 or 5 times at the next meet which adds up to zero for twenty. Along the way, the leading or top 5 rider you had on has politely asked off so you are riding lesser qualified riders, sometimes drastically lesser quality riders. This usually adds up to... Now , I'm cold.

Well not really. My horses are all out of conditions and my numbers say cold % wise but I'm the same guy I was when they were running through conditions and were favorites and was hot.

This scenario does not explain all the trainers that go hot and cold, but these facts will fit nicely into plenty of them.

Another easy one is cold at Belmont in May and June. That usually means total emphasis on Saratoga, where EVERYBODY wants to shine.

That should help with that.

[Thunderground]

Thanks str. I had never thought about those details.

Does it work the other way as well? Would there be a layer of trainers with horses not quite good enough to compete at Saratoga, who would then train their horses to peak at Belmont in May and June?

[str]

Thanks str. I had never thought about those details.

Does it work the other way as well? Would there be a layer of trainers with horses not quite good enough to compete at Saratoga, who would then train their horses to peak at Belmont in May and June?

Yes.

And of course the "after a hot Saratoga" would likely hit a few barns for the fall as well, especially if those wins were maidens , conditions or claimers likely claimed away or being forced to raise up in class.

[Thunderground]

Am I hearing you right?

Let's say that there's hot-medium-cold as a measuring scale. Are you saying that a barn, when it cools off after a hot period, is likely to go straight to cold? I don't mean to oversimplify, and it's to be looked into barn-by-barn, but would you say that the same barns will tend to repeat the same patterns each year?