Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Warning: Undefined array key "p" in /var/www/html/forum/includes/vb5/template.php(441) : eval()'d code on line 785 Horse Racing questions and answers - Sportsbook Review Forum

Horse Racing questions and answers

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • JBEX
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 01-02-12
    • 23177

    #1891
    Hey str

    in the last race at parx today there was a $44 winner
    that won easily by 7 lengths..I looked back over the race cause my pick finished a distant 10th..it was a clm 10k n2L at 7f on the dirt..the winners last race was at belmont 15 days ago in a clm 25k n2L at 8.5f on the turf..his line in that race (rounded off lengths behind) as follows..6-4/6-4/4-3/4-7/6-10 in a 12 horse field...4 wide 3/8 to 1/4 pole was the comment..can you see a race like this preceding today's giving the horse a nice foundation for a good effort today on the drop and 1 furlong cut back ?? Horses other races were not too far off from being competetive vs this field imo
    Comment
    • JBEX
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 01-02-12
      • 23177

      #1892
      Originally posted by JBEX
      Hey str

      in the last race at parx today there was a $44 winner
      that won easily by 7 lengths..I looked back over the race cause my pick finished a distant 10th..it was a clm 10k n2L at 7f on the dirt..the winners last race was at belmont 15 days ago in a clm 25k n2L at 8.5f on the turf..his line in that race (rounded off lengths behind) as follows..6-4/6-4/4-3/4-7/6-10 in a 12 horse field...4 wide 3/8 to 1/4 pole was the comment..can you see a race like this preceding today's giving the horse a nice foundation for a good effort today on the drop and 1 furlong cut back ?? Horses other races were not too far off from being competetive vs this field imo
      finished 6th by 10 lengths
      1.5 furlong
      Last edited by JBEX; 10-03-16, 11:21 PM.
      Comment
      • str
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 01-12-09
        • 11614

        #1893
        Originally posted by JBEX
        Hey str

        in the last race at parx today there was a $44 winner
        that won easily by 7 lengths..I looked back over the race cause my pick finished a distant 10th..it was a clm 10k n2L at 7f on the dirt..the winners last race was at belmont 15 days ago in a clm 25k n2L at 8.5f on the turf..his line in that race (rounded off lengths behind) as follows..6-4/6-4/4-3/4-7/6-10 in a 12 horse field...4 wide 3/8 to 1/4 pole was the comment..can you see a race like this preceding today's giving the horse a nice foundation for a good effort today on the drop and 1 furlong cut back ?? Horses other races were not too far off from being competetive vs this field imo
        A drop from Belmont nw/2 25k to Parx nw/2 10k used to be fairly significant. Like about 6 - 8 lengths or a bit more. Is that no longer the case ?

        Also, when I see that type of chart I always look at the 6th by 10 lengths and make sure the winner didn't represent 6 or more of those lengths or first by a head and 2nd was by 6-7 lengths. If so, it leads me to believe the top two were just far better than all the rest of the field. However, if it was a length or a length and a half pretty much from the winner back to 6th place, then that tells me he was simply outrun by all of them. That would tell me he was not as good as all 5 of them in front of him. But if only a length or two separated horses 3,4,5, and him, finishing 6th at Belmont, it tells me what I said before. That is, the first horse or first two horses were way better but the rest of the field was about typical for that type of race. That helps me determine in my mind if it is really that big a drop or not.
        Hope that makes sense.
        Can you tell me how far the winner or first three were in terms of lengths in that Belmont race?
        Comment
        • JBEX
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 01-02-12
          • 23177

          #1894
          top 6 including him.. 3/4.5/1.75/nose/.75

          I was coming at it more from a useful running line
          when combined with the class drop and returning in 15 days rather than how good was the race he came out of..
          I'm assuming both races are average for their class levels
          which may or may not be the the case..relatively close to the 6f mark and finishes mid pack with the cut back and class drop kind of registers to me a good primer but understand if that's not enough for you..that's kind of what the question was anyway
          Comment
          • str
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-12-09
            • 11614

            #1895
            Originally posted by JBEX
            top 6 including him.. 3/4.5/1.75/nose/.75

            I was coming at it more from a useful running line
            when combined with the class drop and returning in 15 days rather than how good was the race he came out of..
            I'm assuming both races are average for their class levels
            which may or may not be the the case..relatively close to the 6f mark and finishes mid pack with the cut back and class drop kind of registers to me a good primer but understand if that's not enough for you..that's kind of what the question was anyway
            The running line is very useful. I love 2 weeks, a solid drop and a cut back to 7/8ths. That is all real good and reads like a positive too me.

            Now seeing that he was basically 3/4's of a length from being 4th, it seems to me as if he was simply overlooked. Can't understand why he would pay 44.00 . but... easy for me to say now, right? Hard to say what kept him from getting more play.
            Comment
            • JBEX
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 01-02-12
              • 23177

              #1896
              Originally posted by str
              The running line is very useful. I love 2 weeks, a solid drop and a cut back to 7/8ths. That is all real good and reads like a positive too me.

              Now seeing that he was basically 3/4's of a length from being 4th, it seems to me as if he was simply overlooked. Can't understand why he would pay 44.00 . but... easy for me to say now, right? Hard to say what kept him from getting more play.
              trainer 3/77 on the year..last out odds 45-1 and prior to that (also belmont) 26-1..interestingly enough 3 back he broke his mdn for 16k at delaware (11-1) using same jockey who rode him yesterday ..can see the $44 somewhat based on negatives mentioned
              Comment
              • str
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 01-12-09
                • 11614

                #1897
                Originally posted by JBEX
                trainer 3/77 on the year..last out odds 45-1 and prior to that (also belmont) 26-1..interestingly enough 3 back he broke his mdn for 16k at delaware (11-1) using same jockey who rode him yesterday ..can see the $44 somewhat based on negatives mentioned
                Good added info. Thank you.

                Seems as though this was his level all along and all the misplacement by the 3 for 77 trainer hides the fact that this horse runs the same race every time.
                If he had been off that maiden 16k race that he won and the other races did not exist , although he did not embarrass himself according to the odds, he probably would have been a much shorter price. At least I assume that.
                Seems like a low % trainer getting in the way of an honest horse that runs the same race darn near every time. So nw/3 for 7.5k makes him even money next out I assume, but maybe this 3 for 77 knucklehead runs him back in NY or raises him up. And that's the frustrating thing. This horse might actually run ok for more money but if you allow this horse to win , flourish, and gain some confidence, he can probably become a better horse.
                These types I used to claim off low % trainers all the time. They made me look smart many times but all I really was , was realistic and willing to allow the horse to gain self esteem and confidence. However, in doing so, you risk losing the horse in the claiming box and that brings on a whole new conversation .
                Comment
                • JBEX
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 01-02-12
                  • 23177

                  #1898
                  Originally posted by str
                  Good added info. Thank you.

                  Seems as though this was his level all along and all the misplacement by the 3 for 77 trainer hides the fact that this horse runs the same race every time.
                  If he had been off that maiden 16k race that he won and the other races did not exist , although he did not embarrass himself according to the odds, he probably would have been a much shorter price. At least I assume that.
                  Seems like a low % trainer getting in the way of an honest horse that runs the same race darn near every time. So nw/3 for 7.5k makes him even money next out I assume, but maybe this 3 for 77 knucklehead runs him back in NY or raises him up. And that's the frustrating thing. This horse might actually run ok for more money but if you allow this horse to win , flourish, and gain some confidence, he can probably become a better horse.
                  These types I used to claim off low % trainers all the time. They made me look smart many times but all I really was , was realistic and willing to allow the horse to gain self esteem and confidence. However, in doing so, you risk losing the horse in the claiming box and that brings on a whole new conversation .
                  worth mentioning the purses at parx are extremely high.. that race was $34k and they have n3l and n4l conditions
                  so sure he's gonna point for those
                  Comment
                  • JBEX
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 01-02-12
                    • 23177

                    #1899
                    remember a few months back you told me about your encounters with my avatar when you were beginning your career.. two questions about him.. was he a maryland or NY based trainer ?? In the 60's ,which seems to be his glory days,would you say he was a definite top 10/possible top 5 or definite top 5/possible top 3 trainer ?
                    Comment
                    • JBEX
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 01-02-12
                      • 23177

                      #1900
                      Originally posted by JBEX
                      remember a few months back you told me about your encounters with my avatar when you were beginning your career.. two questions about him.. was he a maryland or NY based trainer ?? In the 60's ,which seems to be his glory days,would you say he was a definite top 10/possible top 5 or definite top 5/possible top 3 trainer ?
                      guess with ruffian you'd have to say that extends to the 70's
                      Comment
                      • str
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 01-12-09
                        • 11614

                        #1901
                        Originally posted by JBEX
                        remember a few months back you told me about your encounters with my avatar when you were beginning your career.. two questions about him.. was he a maryland or NY based trainer ?? In the 60's ,which seems to be his glory days,would you say he was a definite top 10/possible top 5 or definite top 5/possible top 3 trainer ?
                        When I first met him it was late 69 I think. But that was a hello at best. But when I was a hot walker that ran the feed, watered off the horses and lived in the barn, that was fall of 72. That was when I saw him in his barn next to ours because we had borrowed a couple of stalls from him and I was the kid they sent over at 4:30 AM to throw the horses a scoop of oats for breakfast and in the evenings to water off( top off the water buckets).
                        I am pretty sure but not positive that he was in NY during the spring and summer but came to Laurel with just some of his horses in the fall . Again, not quite positive but I think he would stay at Laurel in October and November and slowly send his horses down to South Carolina where they all got the winter off. He did not bring all of his horses to Laurel I don't think, just the ones that were not ready in October to be sent to the farm yet. Seems to me that he maybe had 20 horses in October but by November he was down to maybe 12-15. That created empty stalls that he used. Don't remember the dates but I do remember it was getting pretty nippy in the evening and at 4:30 AM. Not heavy jacket yet, but a couple of layers for sure early and late in the day.
                        In my opinion and I am pretty sure in most peoples, he would have been a top 5 guy.
                        Ruffian was not until 74 as a two year old and 75. I don't think he was at Laurel much in the fall by then. He would sent his son David with some though. Same routine of run them once or maybe twice and send them down to South Carolina for the winter. Bowie was just about the only place that ran in the winter back then. It was a different game for sure.
                        I never saw Ruffian at Laurel to my knowledge. No clue if she was ever there. I saw her at Monmouth Park when she destroyed Hot and Nasty. Watched her from the 5/8ths pole stand on the outside fence that is still there. I know I have talked about that several times but I cannot say it enough. She was absolutely incredible. Her eyes were like nothing I had ever seen before. I still get star struck when I think about it.
                        Comment
                        • JBEX
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 01-02-12
                          • 23177

                          #1902
                          I guess with ruffian the look is something a trainer or horsemen of some sort would notice and maybe not a laymen.. How would you describe it.. determined, focused and/or serious I'd guess ??

                          If you read the "american classics"section of the wiki page pretty funny line about how he responded to the ny post prior to the 1967 ky derby when asked a question about damascus

                          https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Y._Whiteley,_Jr.
                          Comment
                          • JBEX
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 01-02-12
                            • 23177

                            #1903
                            Originally posted by JBEX
                            I guess with ruffian the look is something a trainer or horsemen of some sort would notice and maybe not a laymen.. How would you describe it.. determined, focused and/or serious I'd guess ??

                            If you read the "american classics"section of the wiki page pretty funny line about how he responded to the ny post prior to the 1967 ky derby when asked a question about damascus

                            https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Y._Whiteley,_Jr.
                            not sure why link doesn't take you directly there but if you just google him it's a good read
                            Comment
                            • str
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 01-12-09
                              • 11614

                              #1904
                              Originally posted by JBEX
                              I guess with ruffian the look is something a trainer or horsemen of some sort would notice and maybe not a laymen.. How would you describe it.. determined, focused and/or serious I'd guess ??

                              If you read the "american classics"section of the wiki page pretty funny line about how he responded to the ny post prior to the 1967 ky derby when asked a question about damascus

                              https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Y._Whiteley,_Jr.
                              Sorry for the delay.
                              Here is a pic of her running. Don't know if you can see it or not but when she ran by me, the intensity in her eyes was like nothing I had ever seen. And while I have seen thousands since, none have matched what I saw that day at Monmouth Park.
                              Compare the two horses eyes and you tell me if there is a difference.

                              The other horse pictured is not too shabby.

                              The pic tries to do justice to what I am talking about but a camera can only show so much. When she went by me you could see her eyes which were lit up, she was breathing like some kind of machine or engine and she was so strong in her body.She was a freak of nature.

                              Last edited by str; 10-15-16, 09:24 AM.
                              Comment
                              • str
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 01-12-09
                                • 11614

                                #1905
                                Originally posted by JBEX
                                I guess with ruffian the look is something a trainer or horsemen of some sort would notice and maybe not a laymen.. How would you describe it.. determined, focused and/or serious I'd guess ??

                                If you read the "american classics"section of the wiki page pretty funny line about how he responded to the ny post prior to the 1967 ky derby when asked a question about damascus

                                https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Y._Whiteley,_Jr.
                                Came across this picture which EXACTLY how I remember seeing Mr. Whiteley at Laurel when he was not walking up and down the shed row.


                                Comment
                                • JBEX
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 01-02-12
                                  • 23177

                                  #1906
                                  not just patronizing you but can definitely see that although obviously something you would distinguish
                                  more than I would..amazing what a run of horses they had in the mid 70's..bIg red 73,ruffian 74-75,slew 77,affirmed 78 and spectacular bid 79..heard the last
                                  stepped on a pin prior to the race or probably would have won the belmont easy making it 3 straight tc winners..I remember having 10 win on affirmed in the belmont at 4/5 as a 15yo ..what a race that was

                                  shame with ruffian...besides the tragedy of her going down the way she did would have loved to see her offspring..can't imagine how hard that had to be for
                                  him to witness . .geez!!

                                  you get the hint that he was old school, this was his life
                                  and he put all his heart and soul into it...have a feeling he and allen jerkens were probably similar types as far as their attitude and work ethic..being a trainer was their life
                                  and they gave it their al
                                  Comment
                                  • str
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 01-12-09
                                    • 11614

                                    #1907
                                    Originally posted by JBEX
                                    not just patronizing you but can definitely see that although obviously something you would distinguish
                                    more than I would..amazing what a run of horses they had in the mid 70's..bIg red 73,ruffian 74-75,slew 77,affirmed 78 and spectacular bid 79..heard the last
                                    stepped on a pin prior to the race or probably would have won the belmont easy making it 3 straight tc winners..I remember having 10 win on affirmed in the belmont at 4/5 as a 15yo ..what a race that was

                                    shame with ruffian...besides the tragedy of her going down the way she did would have loved to see her offspring..can't imagine how hard that had to be for
                                    him to witness . .geez!!

                                    you get the hint that he was old school, this was his life
                                    and he put all his heart and soul into it...have a feeling he and allen jerkens were probably similar types as far as their attitude and work ethic..being a trainer was their life
                                    and they gave it their al
                                    not just patronizing you but can definitely see that although obviously something you would distinguish
                                    more than I would.

                                    A. Back then I was a groom and did not know very much at all. I guess that is why when I saw it, it shocked me as much as it did.


                                    spectacular bid 79..heard the last
                                    stepped on a pin prior to the race or probably would have won the belmont easy making it 3 straight tc winners

                                    A. Being stabled in Md. , I knew Mo , the groom, very well. Felt really bad for him. It certainly was not Mo's fault. No Velcro back then and nobody had figured out you could use tape instead. Everyone used pins.
                                    Not sure that got him beat as much as Ronnie moving so hard and waaay too soon. He just ran out of gas from a very premature move .
                                    Bud Delp did a tremendous job training Bid. He was a rival in the claiming game but boy did he shine training Bid. Simply a tremendous job.


                                    .have a feeling he and allen jerkens were probably similar types as far as their attitude and work ethic..being a trainer was their life
                                    and they gave it their al

                                    A. Yes, they sure were and they sure did. Feel fortunate that I even was able to meet them or stand around and hear them talk about a horse.
                                    Comment
                                    • JBEX
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 01-02-12
                                      • 23177

                                      #1908
                                      Originally posted by str
                                      not just patronizing you but can definitely see that although obviously something you would distinguish
                                      more than I would.

                                      A. Back then I was a groom and did not know very much at all. I guess that is why when I saw it, it shocked me as much as it did.


                                      spectacular bid 79..heard the last
                                      stepped on a pin prior to the race or probably would have won the belmont easy making it 3 straight tc winners

                                      A. Being stabled in Md. , I knew Mo , the groom, very well. Felt really bad for him. It certainly was not Mo's fault. No Velcro back then and nobody had figured out you could use tape instead. Everyone used pins.
                                      [/B]Not sure that got him beat as much as Ronnie moving so hard and waaay too soon. He just ran out of gas from a very premature move.[/B]
                                      Bud Delp did a tremendous job training Bid. He was a rival in the claiming game but boy did he shine training Bid. Simply a tremendous job.


                                      .have a feeling he and allen jerkens were probably similar types as far as their attitude and work ethic..being a trainer was their life
                                      and they gave it their al

                                      A. Yes, they sure were and they sure did. Feel fortunate that I even was able to meet them or stand around and hear them talk about a horse.
                                      watched a replay...no question asked him too soon
                                      Comment
                                      • str
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 01-12-09
                                        • 11614

                                        #1909
                                        I went to Laurel last week to see some people there and thought I would pass this along.

                                        Looks like management is pointing to bring the Preakness to Laurel in about 3 years.

                                        They are also looking to have the Breeders Cup there around 2020.

                                        I saw some of the improvements and must admit, they are really doing work in the right places.

                                        All the infrastructure is in place with the marc train ( subway) between Washington and Baltimore having a stop 100 feet from the Laurels main entrance.
                                        Comment
                                        • JBEX
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 01-02-12
                                          • 23177

                                          #1910
                                          Hey str

                                          in the 1st at prx today (already ran) 2yo mdn clm 10k
                                          @ 1 mile on the dirt...2nd time starter who ran for 30k at CD and was claimed (6f)..the new connections include the trainer who has an ownership share and is the top trainer at prx..they are not CD guys I believe and was wondering if it was a possibility that the horse was sold privately after the claim ? thought way he ran at CD would set him up perfectly for todays race but couldn't pull the trigger because of the drop...was thinking maybe they bought him for a little less than the claiming price therefore running for 10k not a sure bad thing..realize
                                          this is all speculation but curious if you think this is a possibility ? he won easily at 8-5
                                          Comment
                                          • str
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 01-12-09
                                            • 11614

                                            #1911
                                            Originally posted by JBEX
                                            Hey str

                                            in the 1st at prx today (already ran) 2yo mdn clm 10k
                                            @ 1 mile on the dirt...2nd time starter who ran for 30k at CD and was claimed (6f)..the new connections include the trainer who has an ownership share and is the top trainer at prx..they are not CD guys I believe and was wondering if it was a possibility that the horse was sold privately after the claim ? thought way he ran at CD would set him up perfectly for todays race but couldn't pull the trigger because of the drop...was thinking maybe they bought him for a little less than the claiming price therefore running for 10k not a sure bad thing..realize
                                            this is all speculation but curious if you think this is a possibility ? he won easily at 8-5
                                            A few things come to mind here.

                                            Claimed as a firster, it became quickly known to the new owner that the horse did not have a lot of ability. I don't know exactly how the current owner got the horse but that owner might very well have simply decided it is no longer about dreaming this horse might be this or that and went the business route of " let's get what we can out of this horse".
                                            Often times when you see a trainer own a piece of the horse it can be a financial deal where the trainer gets 50% of all earnings ( plus 10% trainers fee) but no per Diem. That stops the bleeding for the owner. That makes the trainer run the horse where it can instantly become live.
                                            That seems to be the case here. A drop from 30 short to 10 long for a 2year old is HUGE. Probably 12-15 lengths. I can't compare the actual fractions that the horse ran each race but he probably ran about the same times.

                                            10k long 2 year olds in November are very slow and have very limited ability. I would think that this is not so much about soreness and more about slowness.
                                            The trainer, being realistic , put this horse in against slow horses with very little ability.
                                            Because the purses are so nice, he won 10k in that race( netted about 8k). I would assume that the next race is for the bottom claiming for a two year old as well. Horse will go off one of the favorites and if it wins, will pick up another 10k or so. That allows a nw/3 for 7.5k and another win. Another 10k and all of the sudden, the owner that was stuck has 50-60% of their money back, has won 3 races, and has a horse that wins. If they continue to run this horse cheap and the horse continues to run well, they will get the claim price soon to add to the original investment.
                                            So potentially, the owner can get back maybe 20-25k of the initial investment and write off 7500 minimum in depreciation on their taxes from the 1st year( typically about 25%) if that applies or a portion of that if they acquired the horse too late in the year to get the full deduction plus the actual loss of money for those months they owned the horse, and therefore, come out of this, in not too bad a shape when it looked bleak the day after the claim. The owner will also win a few races and that never hurts the ego or the mind set of running where the horse belongs. The trainer will get several wins and pick up some purse money. A win, win for everyone.

                                            While this is all a guess, this type of thing happens all the time with young horses especially when someone gets in a position of being "stuck" financially with a horse. Not having an emotional stake of owning the mare or breeding the horse only helps keep the decisions all about finances and not about the love of the horse as a family member , ( so to speak).

                                            It is moves like this that helps make higher % trainers win more than others.
                                            Moving forward, try not to think soreness with these types as much as pure ability. There is no way to always be right but in more cases than not, big drops with young horses that have been well beaten are more about the reality that the horse is simply slower than had been hoped for and less about physical problems. Especially stretching out after one or two starts. Why? Because that horse needed to be fit enough to go long and that took long daily gallops and plenty of two minute clip miles ( 15 seconds per 18th), or longer works. A sore horse would not have been able to sustain that in the 5 weeks between it's 1st and second race.

                                            Lastly, if sold, he probably paid at least the 10k and maybe more like 12k or even 15K. Why? If fairly sound, but simply slow, which is often the case, having the maiden condition gives the horse more value because you know they can break their maiden. You also know that if they can win for maiden 10k which is pretty weak in November of a two year old year, they horse can also win a nw/2 and nw/3 for 7.5 or at least 5k. So you look at the purses of those races to help establish a true worth.
                                            When you claim a maiden, you want them to finish second. You want to retain the condition. That is money in the bank at some level.

                                            Maybe less than you paid but they all can win for something, somewhere.

                                            Hope that makes sense.

                                            Follow up if I it does not.
                                            Comment
                                            • JBEX
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 01-02-12
                                              • 23177

                                              #1912
                                              whether this horse was sold after the claim is obviously just a guess..if he was I'd have to think it was for much less than he was claimed for in order to run for 10k..understand that you have to run a horse where it can win even if that means dropping significantly in price..interesting that a 2yo running at low level probably has to do more with lack of ability than soreness..always felt finishing second not the worst thing in allowance races as you earn something and are still eligible for that condition ..thanks str
                                              Comment
                                              • harthebar
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 12-09-11
                                                • 15700

                                                #1913


                                                how do they buy a horse for 3.7 million

                                                if the horse does zero would his breeding stud fee have value.......
                                                how you been anyway
                                                Last edited by harthebar; 11-10-16, 12:26 PM.
                                                Comment
                                                • harthebar
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 12-09-11
                                                  • 15700

                                                  #1914
                                                  Comment
                                                  • str
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 01-12-09
                                                    • 11614

                                                    #1915
                                                    Originally posted by harthebar
                                                    http://flex.keeneland.com/summaries/summaries.html

                                                    how do they buy a horse for 3.7 million

                                                    if the horse does zero would his breeding stud fee have value.......
                                                    how you been anyway
                                                    Hi Harthebar

                                                    Hope all is well.

                                                    The 3.7 million price is another form of horse racing gambling. It is a breeding market and the buyers have determined in their minds that there is a solid avenue for return on investment. Unless it is billionaires that have to spend it somewhere and money has no actual value because they have too much of it and can't possibly spend it all.
                                                    A broodmare does not need to have great race credentials that a stud would. Her worth will only be determined by her offspring but by the time we know that, she will be aging out and so selling her is probably not in the cards. They will sell the offspring and have determined that there is money to be made. Or the owner is too rich . It's one or the other.

                                                    As for me, things are great.
                                                    Business is real good as is the family.
                                                    Thanks for asking and I hope that answer helps.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Thunderground
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 09-09-15
                                                      • 256

                                                      #1916
                                                      Str, long time my friend, hope you are well. I've been having some fun with herd hierarchy in maiden claimers.

                                                      A pace related question. The question is about the likeliness of horses putting pressure on the leader or not. I'm wondering if this is related to the jockey on the horse that is in a position to pressure the leader or not. If he's a jockey that makes a lot of money he may prefer to pressure the leader and play all or nothing. But if he's just scraping by he may instead prefer to collect a check and not pressure the leader. Is this a correct assessment? Such a choice by the rider could easily change the entire dynamic of the race, so I also want to ask it in a larger context than just money. But for the most part I wonder, for this question, if money plays a role for some jockeys in that sense that they would rather finish in the money than win the race.
                                                      Last edited by Thunderground; 11-13-16, 01:36 AM.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • str
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 01-12-09
                                                        • 11614

                                                        #1917
                                                        Originally posted by Thunderground
                                                        Str, long time my friend, hope you are well. I've been having some fun with herd hierarchy in maiden claimers.

                                                        A pace related question. The question is about the likeliness of horses putting pressure on the leader or not. I'm wondering if this is related to the jockey on the horse that is in a position to pressure the leader or not. If he's a jockey that makes a lot of money he may prefer to pressure the leader and play all or nothing. But if he's just scraping by he may instead prefer to collect a check and not pressure the leader. Is this a correct assessment? Such a choice by the rider could easily change the entire dynamic of the race, so I also want to ask it in a larger context than just money. But for the most part I wonder, for this question, if money plays a role for some jockeys in that sense that they would rather finish in the money than win the race.

                                                        In my experience it might very well be the opposite for both riders. Here is why.
                                                        The rider making more money is getting more live mounts and therefore will consistently have more confidence in the horse, himself or herself, and in the outfit they ride for. The lesser earning rider wants to do anything to please the trainer and owner and wants to have the horse earn all it can. The lesser rider equates that to reflecting positively on his ride and the willingness to do everything possible to earn money. Not for the rider but for the outfit. It was never my experience that a rider that was hungry for mounts was worried about the small amount of money difference from day to day. They looked at it as trying to build a solid career and get in with better outfits therefore better horses.
                                                        I think if you look at rider standings and look at the perennial leaders you see more wins and seconds but less thirds in most cases.
                                                        If you look at the lower percentage riders you might very well see where they rode 100 races with 7 wins 8 seconds and 15 thirds. This is not as much a reflection of getting horses beat as many might think but more a reflection of the little guy trying harder to get any piece where a leading rider might wrap up and wait for another day.

                                                        This holds very true with certain trainers that ride mostly the same rider in claiming races. Not so much in allowance or stakes but you still see it.
                                                        Maryland had a leading trainer for decades that rarely finished 3rd. it was not a coincidence . His theory was if they can't run first or second they can forego third or forth or 10% or 6% and earn more on the drop and retain the horse instead of losing it in the claim box. This was passed along to the regular rider of the outfit so there was full understanding IMO. He was doing this before the triple or super was introduced. Once it was, it continued and became a not so bettor friendly action to say the least. But if you were aware of it, the bettor would use the horse first and second but NOT third. It was a little known way to play triples that swung % play in your favor. And it's still out there today.
                                                        I don't know if you will see this at Samta Anita but I have no doubt it happens and multiple tracks that have a lot of claiming races.

                                                        But back on point, post position will also dictate early movement or more sit still as we have talked about. Being down inside makes you commit before the turn eats you up with the dirt spray and the lack of room with lead changes as discussed within these pages. Sitting outside is a garden spot for even the faint of heart horses.
                                                        So continue to monitor the post position and race set up and DO watch for that low % rider that seems to finish 3rd a lot. Plenty of players write it off as a coincidence but in most places and certainly at the race track, very few if any things actually are.
                                                        When filling out a triple ticket , if this low % rider is on a throw out at 30-1 you might toss that one into the Third spot. It does work. Gotta trust me there. And it's not very expensive to do.

                                                        Hope that helps. Great to hear from you. Hope things are getting smoother for you these days. Let me know if this does not fully explain things.
                                                        Last edited by str; 11-13-16, 11:04 AM.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Thunderground
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 09-09-15
                                                          • 256

                                                          #1918
                                                          Thanks str. That will take me some time to put in practice.

                                                          The reason I asked was also, and this is a separate scenario, that it was mentioned by a former jockey (Migliore) during the Breeders Cup a couple of times. Of course, those are huge payouts and getting a check there would be much more interesting. Good to know that it doesn't extend to regular everyday racing. Could have thrown me off.
                                                          Last edited by Thunderground; 11-14-16, 04:13 PM.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • str
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 01-12-09
                                                            • 11614

                                                            #1919
                                                            Originally posted by Thunderground
                                                            Thanks str. That will take me some time to put in practice.

                                                            The reason I asked was also, and this is a separate scenario, that it was mentioned by a former jockey (Migliore) during the Breeders Cup a couple of times. Of course, those are huge payouts and getting a check there would be much more interesting. Good to know that it doesn't extend to regular everyday racing. Could have thrown me off.
                                                            When you are talking about the Breeders Cup , finishing 3rd is HUGE for breeding purposes so yes, it might very well apply in that case.

                                                            Do look into what I explained though.

                                                            It's not just an opinion, it's reality and for lesser venues, it is a solid angle that very few players use.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Thunderground
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 09-09-15
                                                              • 256

                                                              #1920
                                                              I will. Thanks. Have definitely seen riders not ride all the way to the wire with two horses fighting it out ahead of them.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • str
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 01-12-09
                                                                • 11614

                                                                #1921
                                                                Originally posted by str
                                                                I went to Laurel last week to see some people there and thought I would pass this along.

                                                                Looks like management is pointing to bring the Preakness to Laurel in about 3 years.

                                                                They are also looking to have the Breeders Cup there around 2020.

                                                                I saw some of the improvements and must admit, they are really doing work in the right places.

                                                                All the infrastructure is in place with the marc train ( subway) between Washington and Baltimore having a stop 100 feet from the Laurels main entrance.
                                                                As a follow up to this, Laurel now has a deal in place with the Marc train to pay for a ticket station, platform and all improvements necessary to move the train stop about 500 yards from the old station it currently stops at, to the area directly behind the track about 100 feet away.
                                                                They will offer free parking for the train in the rear lot that already exists.

                                                                They are also planning on building a new paddock behind and slightly right of the clubhouse entrance so the horses will be clearly seen by anyone on the train or boarding or getting off. A ramp from the train stop will be build above the access road running behind the track so people can walk directly from the train, to the track entrance.
                                                                The old paddock cannot be torn down because it is registered as a historic part of old Laurel so they have plans to turn it into a horse racing museum.

                                                                The push is on to get those previously mentioned races to be run at Laurel.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JBEX
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 01-02-12
                                                                  • 23177

                                                                  #1922
                                                                  ^^ str just posted half hour before me ^^


                                                                  hey str

                                                                  if you can watch replays could you tell me if the 5 in R3 at parx failed to change leads..battling the 3 most of the way around the track from the outside and clearly passed him coming into the stretch..last 100 yards he began to tire and the 3 came back and passed him..last 40-50 yards 5 started running again and almost nipped the 3 at the wire ..I may be off with the distances
                                                                  Last edited by JBEX; 11-22-16, 02:14 PM.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • str
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 01-12-09
                                                                    • 11614

                                                                    #1923
                                                                    Originally posted by JBEX
                                                                    ^^ str just posted half hour before me ^^


                                                                    hey str

                                                                    if you can watch replays could you tell me if the 5 in R3 at parx failed to change leads..battling the 3 most of the way around the track from the outside and clearly passed him coming into the stretch..last 100 yards he began to tire and the 3 came back and passed him..last 40-50 yards 5 started running again and almost nipped the 3 at the wire ..I may be off with the distances
                                                                    I can not access the equibase replays.

                                                                    If you have any type of link or idea where I can see it, I will be happy to look at it.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JBEX
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 01-02-12
                                                                      • 23177

                                                                      #1924
                                                                      there's a free app called "horse races now" ..live racing from many of the tracks (except some major ones) and replays of a lot more ..had it for a while and like it..no big deal if you'd rather not
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Easy-Rider 66
                                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                        • 02-14-12
                                                                        • 36088

                                                                        #1925
                                                                        Hey STR: You can get replays on the Twinspires free stream. Just google. I use the one from USA Today.

                                                                        Happy Thanksgiving to you and your Family. Thx for the all the info you provide in this thread. It has helped make me a much better capper.
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...