Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

Hey str, another question I was wondering if you have experience with. Tracks like Northlands, Hastings, CT that are running 2 turn sprints around 6furlongs, what are the dynamics of post position in general in these races? Or say slightly bigger tracks like Asd or Delta where 2 turn routes end up having a big leadup to the first turn.

As long as they are starting on the main track and not a chute, the longer run up makes it pretty fair. Obviously a crazy bias negates that but they do not surface all that often and even less with warmer weather. Never raced at most of those tracks but I ran maybe 50 or 60 at C.T. in my time but probably 1/2 of those were 4 1/2F. I never really worried about drawing the 2 post or the 7 post with a speed horse going 6 1/2F. The 10 can be tough but only if there are several speeds inside. The 10 if you can clear without killing the horse, is no problem too me. Well, maybe just a little problem. Just depends on if the rider can make the lead without getting the horse too fired up. If they get that down the backside breather, they should run well.

So the longer the run to the first turn, the less it really matters. But , as you know, if 5 speeds in a 10 horse field of equal speed all try and make the lead, they will all pay the price, one way or another. In that case, I don't care who is where, I am looking closer anyway.

It's those short runs to the 1st turn that can really compromise the outside post speed horses.

[cutchemist42]

Str, not sure if you watched the Haskell but lots asecond guessing running the filly Untapable against the boys so soon. Any take on it?

[str]

Str, not sure if you watched the Haskell but lots asecond guessing running the filly Untapable against the boys so soon. Any take on it?

It seems as though he would have been second guessed either way. If he runs in the CCA Oaks and gallops, the critics would have said he should have tried the Haskell.

So he tries the Haskell and he draws towards the outside, is 3 wide in the first turn and 4 wide in the second turn, the speed carries ( but it is Monmouth Park), and they want to criticize the decision?

I think he was going to be criticized no matter what he did unless he beat the boys.

One thing is for sure though. Anyone that is criticizing today, has never had to make that type of decision before. As they say, haters are going to hate, but the ones that are doing the hating, spend all there time viewing from the cheap seats. They should walk a mile first. It would give them a whole new perceptive, I promise you.

Trying now gives the connections the clarity to map out the rest of her year,especially the Breeders Cup, and possibly, her career.

Too me, any criticism is not at all fair.

[getthatheadup]

Amen str!!

While on this subject, I have always been curious as to why the girls run more often against the boys in Europe vs. The States. Consider how often the races there are run on grass, where races can be furiously contested at the end, I think many females have proven they have the "heart" or "class" to run with males. Your take on the reluctance to run them vs. our friends east of the pond? Thanks in advance.

[JBEX]

Realize hindsight is 20/20 but I'm a little surprised assmussen didn't run her in the Jim Dandy. Understand 400k purse differential but you have to think it just as important to accomplish the task of beating the boys. She was already up in Saratoga training and you realize that she has a greater chance of being pace compromised at mth. I think under fair circumstances (reasonable pace, decent post) she can run with the best of the boys. Love to see her go in the Travers if she's OK coming out of the Haskell but probably not gonna happen

[str]

Amen str!!

While on this subject, I have always been curious as to why the girls run more often against the boys in Europe vs. The States. Consider how often the races there are run on grass, where races can be furiously contested at the end, I think many females have proven they have the "heart" or "class" to run with males. Your take on the reluctance to run them vs. our friends east of the pond? Thanks in advance.

The reluctance to run fillies and mares against the boys in the USA is only because you can. Europe does not offer what the U.S. does for the girls so they go with what they have to work with. Given the choice, most assume that beating girls only will be easier than trying to tackle boys, so in almost all cases, they stay within there own groups.

[str]

Realize hindsight is 20/20 but I'm a little surprised assmussen didn't run her in the Jim Dandy. Understand 400k purse differential but you have to think it just as important to accomplish the task of beating the boys. She was already up in Saratoga training and you realize that she has a greater chance of being pace compromised at mth. I think under fair circumstances (reasonable pace, decent post) she can run with the best of the boys. Love to see her go in the Travers if she's OK coming out of the Haskell but probably not gonna happen

The Jim Dandy is a grade 2 prep for the Travers. Had she run in that and won, you would have heard the haters say how she beat Tonalist prepping for the Travers and she will have to do it again to prove she is better. He was not going to satisfy anyone by winning a grade 2 with her. I think that is why he took a shot in the grade 1 Haskell. I would be surprised if he tries the boys again, unless they swing for the fences in the B.C. Classic.
For her next race, she needs to get back on track, which for her, is dominating the girls in a grade 1 race. That's the way I see it.

[JBEX]

The Jim Dandy is a grade 2 prep for the Travers. Had she run in that and won, you would have heard the haters say how she beat Tonalist prepping for the Travers and she will have to do it again to prove she is better. He was not going to satisfy anyone by winning a grade 2 with her. I think that is why he took a shot in the grade 1 Haskell. I would be surprised if he tries the boys again, unless they swing for the fences in the B.C. Classic.
For her next race, she needs to get back on track, which for her, is dominating the girls in a grade 1 race. That's the way I see it.

I never thought of it from the perspective that the Jim Dandy isn't a Grade 1..Guess I can understand the connections wanting that on her resume vs a Grade 2 win.On paper IMO she stacks up very well vs the boys. High class pedigree with big distance influences top and bottom. Her Beyers consistently match up well vs her top male counterparts. If Asmussen
felt she was capable vs the boys and this race was just an aberration because of pace and trip would running like she did in the Haskell set her back conditioning wise to go forward.. Or could she still fire her best effort next out vs the boys in spite of her last subpar effort?? I'm assuming of course that she came out of the race in good shape

[str]

I never thought of it from the perspective that the Jim Dandy isn't a Grade 1..Guess I can understand the connections wanting that on her resume vs a Grade 2 win.On paper IMO she stacks up very well vs the boys. High class pedigree with big distance influences top and bottom. Her Beyers consistently match up well vs her top male counterparts. If Asmussen
felt she was capable vs the boys and this race was just an aberration because of pace and trip would running like she did in the Haskell set her back conditioning wise to go forward.. Or could she still fire her best effort next out vs the boys in spite of her last subpar effort?? I'm assuming of course that she came out of the race in good shape

With her outstanding resume to date, a grade 2 Jim Dandy win would almost be a ho-hum line within it. The only step forward pedigree wise for her was to, or is to, beat the boys in a grade 1 event. The apologists are already giving Tonalist a pass saying he was not fully ready to go off the Belmont win. Next time will be better they say. While they are probably right, Billy Turner of Seattle Slew, who begged the owners not to run back in the Swaps in Calif. off the Belmont, was fired because Slew got beat. Nowadays, you get a pass.

Conditioning wise, the loss should not affect her . Too me, it would be more the physique end of things . I would personally want to get her back on track with a nice win and then give her another crack at the boys, if indeed they are considering doing that. That's my preference though, not necessarily his.

[cutchemist42]

Related to a great answer you gave a few days ago, is there any difference in running wide during a slow pace or fast one?

[JBEX]

Have a hunch we'll see Untapable at Parx next on 9/20 for the $1M Cotillion for 3yo fillies. Dick Jerardi of the drf said Asmussen was leaning that way prior to the Haskell as being her next race. Pennsylvania Derby on the same day and supposedly that's going to be CC's next race. They're offering a 50k bonus for each triple crown race won and the Haskell and Travers are included in that. Timing ideal as it's 6 weeks prior to the BC

[str]

Related to a great answer you gave a few days ago, is there any difference in running wide during a slow pace or fast one?

Any bias aside, which could be a positive or negative depending on the bias, I think very little. If they are too fast or slow, down inside COULD get you pinned behind a wall of finishers or stoppers, but short of that, nothing else comes to mind.

And often times at anywhere but the premier tracks, the rider quality is such that you can usually get through down inside if you have enough horse once they turn for home. Only the best of the best can ride tight and keep it tight. Lesser tracks have holes open up that you could drive a truck through more often than not.

[str]

Have a hunch we'll see Untapable at Parx next on 9/20 for the $1M Cotillion for 3yo fillies. Dick Jerardi of the drf said Asmussen was leaning that way prior to the Haskell as being her next race. Pennsylvania Derby on the same day and supposedly that's going to be CC's next race. They're offering a 50k bonus for each triple crown race won and the Haskell and Travers are included in that. Timing ideal as it's 6 weeks prior to the BC

I just love Dick Jerardi ! He was my favorite when he was in Md. years back. What a great guy.

The Cotillion makes perfect sense. Grade 1 and she should write her own ticket if she runs her race. That leaves her all set for the Classic if she wants another crack at the boys or the Distaff if she does not.

[JBEX]

I just love Dick Jerardi ! He was my favorite when he was in Md. years back. What a great guy.

The Cotillion makes perfect sense. Grade 1 and she should write her own ticket if she runs her race. That leaves her all set for the Classic if she wants another crack at the boys or the Distaff if she does not.

Yeah.. like reading his columns in Friday's form...guy knows his stuff.. If Palice Malice holds together don't think they'll want any part of him when they can run in the Distaff. I'm hoping she'll try the Travers but can understand wanting to get a win against the fillies first.. especially with what they're offering at Parx

[str]

From another thread :


cbiscuit

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FK BAYERN! I just went back to watch replay for 4th time...whaat a gift ! How many times hve we regular players seen that horse dq-ed at start? Just too much body onto the favorite out of gate, come on now... pardon my bias, I know I woul dhave won money if they bring him down but I'm cooled off now and I know it's not just not my bioling blood overtaking me here.. someone weigh in please???!!

We have seen it a lot. Now I promise you, this is NOT EXCUSES, in case anyone thinks it might be. It is the reality of what you wager on, so here it is. The reason you have seen it before and will see it again but did not see it yesterday.

. The riders at S.A. yesterday were the best riders in the business. (Keep in mind that we all see riders at other tracks that are anywhere from slightly less talented all the way down to oh my god, how does this rider have a license .) Yesterdays jocks at S.A. had as much control of their horses as any rider in the world could possibly have. What saved Bayern from D.Q. was that after the initial stride, the rider IMMEDIATELY, not 2 jumps later or half assed, took a long right hand hold of him and was straightening him out right away. The Stewards ( almost most of them) will typically give the 1st stride a pass, especially if they are ridden by a rider that has not recently ridden recklessly. This is a key because in the NFL slight pass interference is pass interference. In horse racing the Stewards are always monitoring reckless riding and although subtle, if they grow tired of a certain riders recent recklessness that have been very close to a D.Q. offense but not quite, they will not give that rider a pass when they might give it to someone else. That makes it , in all honesty, a bit of an unfair playing field for the bettor because they have no idea of who or when it might apply. Stewards have to do this within their riding colony. I get that, but it is a tough break for bettors that unknowingly happen to play on a rider that is under more scrutiny then normal because of recent actions in races prior to the one they get taken down on. While this was not the case with these riders yesterday, what I stated is the way it is . So because of that, it seems like they might be inconsistent from one race to the next. The reason I just stated, is a big cause of that.

Getting back to the NFL, it is rare to throw a pass interference flag with 20 seconds left in the end zone with the game in the balance in the Super Bowl unless it was SO flagrant it left them no choice . That is what happened yesterday. It was just not flagrant enough to warrant a change .

Don't get me wrong, if the rider does not do a great job of getting that horse straightened out after one jump, down he goes, no doubt about it. But he did all he could do and immediately, and therefore, they let it stand which is IMO what they should have done.

The fact that Moreno got crushed and lost all chance can't be taken into consideration. Yes, it allowed the culprit to get a relaxed lead and therefore, win, but you can't take a horse down because it was the other speed horse. File that under lucky as hell.

Shared Belief then got double crushed from the outside by Toast of N.Y. But... in all fairness, Toast of N Y had 3/4 of a length position on him and took full advantage. And had he come in just a bit more, maybe he comes down, but again, these riders are the best in the world and have complete control of their horses. Riders at lesser tracks are just not that good and if they try to ride like that, they would need 3 or 4 ambulances following the race not just one. They would kill one another. Kind of like telling a high school pitcher to throw high and tight to the batter. They just do not have the command to be able to control it often enough to do it without hurting someone, so you can't allow it . But on that stage yesterday, you can.





Seattle Slew

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If it wasn't a Breeders Cup race, the horse gets DQ'd. The stewards always give more leeway in big races, just the way it is. Doesn't make it right, but that's racing.

Spot on Slew. And by the way, what a GREAT handle !!


BGboothA HorseBettingDirect

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This is the hard part about this sport getting real recognition. A complete lack of transparency and consistency. It's not the decision itself but the lack of information on it that makes it so hard to believe in.

Man you are sooooo right.

Horse racing policy is so old it makes me sick. Way to often they treat the bettors like crap or provide no information whatsoever. I hated it then, and I hate it now. A big reason I started this a few years ago.

It does not have to be like that but because most tracks has a different owner who is only out for personal gain, those knuckleheads can't even agree on when to meet to discuss something they don't agree on. It's pathetic.



Hope that helps .

[cutchemist42]

Came to ask your opinion but was confused about the formatting of that post. What part were your thoughts on the start of Bayern?

[harthebar]

Hey there uncle str , how is my buddy doing , aunt nance is good, and i hope all is well with you.....
Ok i put this question on my blog. So could you answer it there too. I copied and pasted it to your.......

.what is the exact rule........i think it cost him the race.........in a 5000000 there should be some accountability ...spell check on that word...lol ...if you were a judge .or if you trained shared belief ...answer it the best you can...but is there a firm rule......i think he jumped out way to far......i know it wasnt on purpose....but he did what he did.....


By the way does anyone think bayern cost shared belief the race, at the start, i know there is a so called......out of the gate.....exemption. But .i think he hit him way to hard .and went way to far over, i know. It would of taken a lot of balls to take him down for that....but being how shared belief finished, and how much it cost him....he should of been taken down, but they did the right thing by leaving him up....it didnt matter to me either way, i just wanted some other thoughts

[harthebar]

Well i just left a post ... Didnt even see your post till now. Throwing a flag at the super bowl....lol that would never happen unless it was so flagrant......but lets use .....and im sorry we are talking horses i know ..i will... Florida state .notre dame. Was it a flag, i could say yes.... The last play of the game just in case you havent seen it........anyway yea it was a flag, but it happens all the time.......the defender also was holding on.....but the thing is.....the penalty ..didnt change that plkay the def. Guy was beat........but it wont matter ..because all the critics , will go back to that game ..and know they lost......its like telling a jury to disregard that remark........yea right.......the ref should of never of tossed that flag there.......just like the end of the san fran game today was great ..........you ever see a wasted chance 19 seconds left..........the qb was , is over rated.........anyway..................i really dont know the official rule coming out of the gate.........but as you said .they are the best.....he took all chance of shared belief of winning .........he went two horses over and it was like a hockey check........if they had any balls....they should of taken that horse down.....and i didnt play either........just no right......

from another thread :


Cbiscuit

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fk bayern! I just went back to watch replay for 4th time...whaat a gift ! How many times hve we regular players seen that horse dq-ed at start? Just too much body onto the favorite out of gate, come on now... Pardon my bias, i know i woul dhave won money if they bring him down but i'm cooled off now and i know it's not just not my bioling blood overtaking me here.. Someone weigh in please???!!

we have seen it a lot. Now i promise you, this is not excuses, in case anyone thinks it might be. It is the reality of what you wager on, so here it is. The reason you have seen it before and will see it again but did not see it yesterday.

. The riders at s.a. Yesterday were the best riders in the business. (keep in mind that we all see riders at other tracks that are anywhere from slightly less talented all the way down to oh my god, how does this rider have a license .) yesterdays jocks at s.a. Had as much control of their horses as any rider in the world could possibly have. What saved bayern from d.q. Was that after the initial stride, the rider immediately, not 2 jumps later or half assed, took a long right hand hold of him and was straightening him out right away. The stewards ( almost most of them) will typically give the 1st stride a pass, especially if they are ridden by a rider that has not recently ridden recklessly. This is a key because in the nfl slight pass interference is pass interference. In horse racing the stewards are always monitoring reckless riding and although subtle, if they grow tired of a certain riders recent recklessness that have been very close to a d.q. Offense but not quite, they will not give that rider a pass when they might give it to someone else. That makes it , in all honesty, a bit of an unfair playing field for the bettor because they have no idea of who or when it might apply. Stewards have to do this within their riding colony. I get that, but it is a tough break for bettors that unknowingly happen to play on a rider that is under more scrutiny then normal because of recent actions in races prior to the one they get taken down on. While this was not the case with these riders yesterday, what i stated is the way it is . So because of that, it seems like they might be inconsistent from one race to the next. The reason i just stated, is a big cause of that.

Getting back to the nfl, it is rare to throw a pass interference flag with 20 seconds left in the end zone with the game in the balance in the super bowl unless it was so flagrant it left them no choice . That is what happened yesterday. It was just not flagrant enough to warrant a change .

Don't get me wrong, if the rider does not do a great job of getting that horse straightened out after one jump, down he goes, no doubt about it. But he did all he could do and immediately, and therefore, they let it stand which is imo what they should have done.

The fact that moreno got crushed and lost all chance can't be taken into consideration. Yes, it allowed the culprit to get a relaxed lead and therefore, win, but you can't take a horse down because it was the other speed horse. File that under lucky as hell.

Shared belief then got double crushed from the outside by toast of n.y. But... In all fairness, toast of n y had 3/4 of a length position on him and took full advantage. And had he come in just a bit more, maybe he comes down, but again, these riders are the best in the world and have complete control of their horses. Riders at lesser tracks are just not that good and if they try to ride like that, they would need 3 or 4 ambulances following the race not just one. They would kill one another. Kind of like telling a high school pitcher to throw high and tight to the batter. They just do not have the command to be able to control it often enough to do it without hurting someone, so you can't allow it . But on that stage yesterday, you can.





Seattle slew

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if it wasn't a breeders cup race, the horse gets dq'd. The stewards always give more leeway in big races, just the way it is. Doesn't make it right, but that's racing.

spot on slew. And by the way, what a great handle !!


Bgbootha horsebettingdirect

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message me

this is the hard part about this sport getting real recognition. A complete lack of transparency and consistency. It's not the decision itself but the lack of information on it that makes it so hard to believe in.

man you are sooooo right.

Horse racing policy is so old it makes me sick. Way to often they treat the bettors like crap or provide no information whatsoever. I hated it then, and i hate it now. A big reason i started this a few years ago.

It does not have to be like that but because most tracks has a different owner who is only out for personal gain, those knuckleheads can't even agree on when to meet to discuss something they don't agree on. It's pathetic.



Hope that helps .

[harthebar]

LOL I WAS JUST READING YOUR COMMENT ABOUT HAVING 3-4 AMBULANCES FOLLOWING THE RIDERS, IT REMINDED ME OF THE MOVIE....WITH .....RACE HORSE..., SPIDERMAN KID WAS IN IT..........HE WAS RIDING AROUND IN THE RACE AND ALL THE JOCKEYS WERE WIPPING EACH OTHER.........AND TRYING TO KNOCK EACH OTHER OUT OF THE RACE.............AND ALSO DID YOU EVER SEE THE RACE...WHERE I BELIEVE EDGAR PRADO REACHED DOWN IN THE MIDDLE OF A RACE.......A FELLOW RIDERS FOOT SLIPPED OUT OF THE IRONS, AND HE BENT OVER IN THE RACE AND PUT HIS FOOT BACK IN IT....THEY COME A LONG WAY....LOL

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6sP_Mq64vQ

[str]

Came to ask your opinion but was confused about the formatting of that post. What part were your thoughts on the start of Bayern?

I tried to clean it up for you. Sorry for the jumping all over the place with my response. My thoughts come much faster than my fingers can type. Lol.

The riders at S.A. yesterday were the best riders in the business. (Keep in mind that we all see riders at other tracks that are anywhere from slightly less talented all the way down to oh my god, how does this rider have a license .) Yesterdays jocks at S.A. had as much control of their horses as any rider in the world could possibly have. What saved Bayern from D.Q. was that after the initial stride, the rider IMMEDIATELY, not 2 jumps later or half assed, took a long right hand hold of him and was straightening him out right away. The Stewards ( almost most of them) will typically give the 1st stride a pass, especially if they are ridden by a rider that has not recently ridden recklessly.

if the rider does not do a great job of getting that horse straightened out after one jump, down he goes, no doubt about it. But he did all he could do and immediately, and therefore, they let it stand which is IMO what they should have done.

The fact that Moreno got crushed and lost all chance can't be taken into consideration. Yes, it allowed the culprit to get a relaxed lead and therefore, win, but you can't take a horse down because it was the other speed horse. File that under lucky as hell.

Shared Belief then got double crushed from the outside by Toast of N.Y. But... in all fairness, Toast of N Y had 3/4 of a length position on him and took full advantage. And had he come in just a bit more, maybe he comes down, but again, these riders are the best in the world and have complete control of their horses. Riders at lesser tracks are just not that good and if they try to ride like that, they would need 3 or 4 ambulances following the race not just one. They would kill one another. Kind of like telling a high school pitcher to throw high and tight to the batter. They just do not have the command to be able to control it often enough to do it without hurting someone, so you can't allow it . But on that stage yesterday, you can.

[str]

Hey there uncle str , how is my buddy doing , aunt nance is good, and i hope all is well with you.....
Ok i put this question on my blog. So could you answer it there too. I copied and pasted it to your.......

.what is the exact rule........i think it cost him the race.........in a 5000000 there should be some accountability ...spell check on that word...lol ...if you were a judge .or if you trained shared belief ...answer it the best you can...but is there a firm rule......i think he jumped out way to far......i know it wasnt on purpose....but he did what he did.....


By the way does anyone think bayern cost shared belief the race, at the start, i know there is a so called......out of the gate.....exemption. But .i think he hit him way to hard .and went way to far over, i know. It would of taken a lot of balls to take him down for that....but being how shared belief finished, and how much it cost him....he should of been taken down, but they did the right thing by leaving him up....it didnt matter to me either way, i just wanted some other thoughts

If I was a judge, it stays the way it did.

If I was Shared Belief's trainer, I would be really pissed.

There is no firm rule. Just a general rule. It is a judgement call.

Don't know if Bayern cost S.B. the race but he surely compromised him at the start. Remember, S.B. is a smallish horse so he is easy to push around.

It is unfair to say that the start cost S.B. the race. No way to know that. But because he did not fire, we all assume that. I will say this. If S.B. rallies and Bayern beats him in a photo, I would bet he would have been put up. Is that fair? No. But I think thats the way it would have gone down.

[str]

LOL I WAS JUST READING YOUR COMMENT ABOUT HAVING 3-4 AMBULANCES FOLLOWING THE RIDERS, IT REMINDED ME OF THE MOVIE....WITH .....RACE HORSE..., SPIDERMAN KID WAS IN IT..........HE WAS RIDING AROUND IN THE RACE AND ALL THE JOCKEYS WERE WIPPING EACH OTHER.........AND TRYING TO KNOCK EACH OTHER OUT OF THE RACE.............AND ALSO DID YOU EVER SEE THE RACE...WHERE I BELIEVE EDGAR PRADO REACHED DOWN IN THE MIDDLE OF A RACE.......A FELLOW RIDERS FOOT SLIPPED OUT OF THE IRONS, AND HE BENT OVER IN THE RACE AND PUT HIS FOOT BACK IN IT....THEY COME A LONG WAY....LOL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6sP_Mq64vQ

That's Edgar. A fierce competitor but a very kind man.

[cutchemist42]

I tried to clean it up for you. Sorry for the jumping all over the place with my response. My thoughts come much faster than my fingers can type. Lol.

The riders at S.A. yesterday were the best riders in the business. (Keep in mind that we all see riders at other tracks that are anywhere from slightly less talented all the way down to oh my god, how does this rider have a license .) Yesterdays jocks at S.A. had as much control of their horses as any rider in the world could possibly have. What saved Bayern from D.Q. was that after the initial stride, the rider IMMEDIATELY, not 2 jumps later or half assed, took a long right hand hold of him and was straightening him out right away. The Stewards ( almost most of them) will typically give the 1st stride a pass, especially if they are ridden by a rider that has not recently ridden recklessly.

if the rider does not do a great job of getting that horse straightened out after one jump, down he goes, no doubt about it. But he did all he could do and immediately, and therefore, they let it stand which is IMO what they should have done.

The fact that Moreno got crushed and lost all chance can't be taken into consideration. Yes, it allowed the culprit to get a relaxed lead and therefore, win, but you can't take a horse down because it was the other speed horse. File that under lucky as hell.

Shared Belief then got double crushed from the outside by Toast of N.Y. But... in all fairness, Toast of N Y had 3/4 of a length position on him and took full advantage. And had he come in just a bit more, maybe he comes down, but again, these riders are the best in the world and have complete control of their horses. Riders at lesser tracks are just not that good and if they try to ride like that, they would need 3 or 4 ambulances following the race not just one. They would kill one another. Kind of like telling a high school pitcher to throw high and tight to the batter. They just do not have the command to be able to control it often enough to do it without hurting someone, so you can't allow it . But on that stage yesterday, you can.

Great explanation, thanks!

[cutchemist42]

So based on what I saw, I think California Chrome is a horse that needs the outside to feel comfortable. With what I thought was a good 3rd place effort, (losing by a neck?), what would do as a 4yo? Or would you just retire him to stud?

[cutchemist42]

Hey str, as someone who is always trying to understand the classes of horse racing, could you speak to the Maiden Claiming class? Have you ever written about it in terms of what horses you find, what horses win these race, etc. I know some here find the class to have some random results, and just wonder if you see it the same?

[str]

So based on what I saw, I think California Chrome is a horse that needs the outside to feel comfortable. With what I thought was a good 3rd place effort, (losing by a neck?), what would do as a 4yo? Or would you just retire him to stud?

Your assessment of CC wanting a clean right eye is correct. He is much less willing to give a full effort when pinned in between or inside.

He ran well in the Classic. I am certain that if that had been his 3rd race back from the much needed layoff instead of only his 2nd off the layoff and with the same trip, he would have run even better .

Unless he has nagging injuries that are growing more worrisome with each race, I would expect him to race as a 4 year old for the sole purpose of being at his peak for next years Classic. Every race leading up to that, if he indeed continues, will all be with that in mind. And while he will win his share of those in all probability, too me, any bet made on him leading up to the Classic next November should be based on the theory that he is so much the best that he can dominate his opposition at less than 100% effort.

Typically, if it is not because of injury, the decision to run as a 4 year old was made last late summer while he was training after his layoff from the triple crown chase. Trainers in that position think 6-12 months ahead , not 6-12 weeks ahead.

[str]

Hey str, as someone who is always trying to understand the classes of horse racing, could you speak to the Maiden Claiming class? Have you ever written about it in terms of what horses you find, what horses win these race, etc. I know some here find the class to have some random results, and just wonder if you see it the same?

Post 181 speaks to maidens and I am sure there are many more. I would highly suggest that if you are trying to study multiple areas within this game to better understand what to watch for as a handicapper, I would encourage you to try and read through this entire thread. Yes, it is a lot. But I guarantee you there is no book on the shelves that gives you as much first hand detail about the inner workings of the game , than this thread does. It is 3 years old and counting and while quite a bit of this content is not for the guy that just wants to roll out to the track and bet a few races without having a deep understanding of what is going on, ( and there is nothing wrong with that at all IMO), it seems to me that you are really wanting to expand your knowledge and have as good an understanding as possible of the game. If that is the case, whether that is you or anyone else, take the time to read through this. I am pretty sure you will be glad you did. I am also sure you will have more questions once you read this and that is fine with me.

I hope you and others that have not yet done so,do.

[cutchemist42]

Post 181 speaks to maidens and I am sure there are many more. I would highly suggest that if you are trying to study multiple areas within this game to better understand what to watch for as a handicapper, I would encourage you to try and read through this entire thread. Yes, it is a lot. But I guarantee you there is no book on the shelves that gives you as much first hand detail about the inner workings of the game , than this thread does. It is 3 years old and counting and while quite a bit of this content is not for the guy that just wants to roll out to the track and bet a few races without having a deep understanding of what is going on, ( and there is nothing wrong with that at all IMO), it seems to me that you are really wanting to expand your knowledge and have as good an understanding as possible of the game. If that is the case, whether that is you or anyone else, take the time to read through this. I am pretty sure you will be glad you did. I am also sure you will have more questions once you read this and that is fine with me.

I hope you and others that have not yet done so,do.

Found that post and it was very interesting. It is similar talk to what James Quinn discusses in his class handicapping book.

So do I have this straight, that early in the year for maiden races, 3yos should be preferred to the 4yos? And that in MdCls, older horses might be preferred?

[str]

Found that post and it was very interesting. It is similar talk to what James Quinn discusses in his class handicapping book.

So do I have this straight, that early in the year for maiden races, 3yos should be preferred to the 4yos? And that in MdCls, older horses might be preferred?

I do not know of James Quinn but I do not know of any of those authors. I never read any of their books. Only read Beyers "Beyer on Speed" and only did that because his numbers were and IMO still are so subjective and left to interpretation that I needed to understand the process to be comfortable in paying them no attention whatsoever. While they might be fine for the best of the best type horses in racing, at secondary tracks and with respect to average claimers, they are IMO completely useless. They do not take into consideration the most vital information needed to understand times with those type of horses. But I digress.

Yes, you do have it straight. This is a solid rule of thumb but like anything else in handicapping, each race is like a snowflake. No two are exactly the same.

[chaka]

Post 181 speaks to maidens and I am sure there are many more. I would highly suggest that if you are trying to study multiple areas within this game to better understand what to watch for as a handicapper, I would encourage you to try and read through this entire thread. Yes, it is a lot. But I guarantee you there is no book on the shelves that gives you as much first hand detail about the inner workings of the game , than this thread does. It is 3 years old and counting and while quite a bit of this content is not for the guy that just wants to roll out to the track and bet a few races without having a deep understanding of what is going on, ( and there is nothing wrong with that at all IMO), it seems to me that you are really wanting to expand your knowledge and have as good an understanding as possible of the game. If that is the case, whether that is you or anyone else, take the time to read through this. I am pretty sure you will be glad you did. I am also sure you will have more questions once you read this and that is fine with me.

I hope you and others that have not yet done so,do.

I can attest to re-reading str thread to help learn. Couple years ago when i knew zip about horse racing. I would read str's posts but didnt completely understand everything
I thought i did but after watching more and more races then reverting back to his postings a time or two it began making sense enough where i can teach others to at least where ive grown to
Still much to learn but i personally can see how far ive come in 2 yrs.
racing is truly a sport where one can look yet not see. The laymen see horses racing in circles focusing on either the leaders and or the horse they wagered on, the trained eye spots the troubled trip and the race setting up based on pace with the ability to watch several horses in the course of the race
The handicapping is an animal of itself
Everyone has access to same info but sometimes that still isnt enough. Horses arent machines and extremely hard to run high levels race after race
I firmly believe the video replay watchers have an advantage over paper form. Above and beyond the form and replay there are hidden factors known to few full time handicappers that can lead to some huge prices. For example sunday at santa anita i was watching tvg and " sarge" noted that a first time starter with speed on the dam side for this particular trainer often worked slow up to race and paid big prices The horse worked slow during the week went off at 25-1 and won by several lengths
In this instance, nothing in the race form would give any indication and first time starter theres no video

I took a $2 shot across the board and paid back $95
Sooo many variables is why its tough to beat the races but its also why the challenge is so intriguing and exciting

[cutchemist42]

He did not run well at all off that solid effort did he?

So he lays him in for a nickle @ Laurel. Well, I guess we will see who his go to trainer is in Laurel. Can't imagine he will be allowed back on the NY grounds. Typically, when you run for less than a track offers, you are not allowed back on the grounds. So it's usually a one way trip. He will probably leave him in Md. with someone.

In hindsight, the C.T route I spoke too would have probably been a better fit but...hindsight is 20/20 and if he doesn't drift out, he gets that purse at least.

Was going back through the thread and came across this, and it reminded me of something I read from the Mtn public handicapper at another forum. We were discussing Mtn's rep for having obscure high odd horses run 2nds/3rds out of nowhere, and the poster explained these can be spotted once you know an internal rule, a horse has to show once in atleast 8-10 races at MTN before not being allowed to race there anymore.

Could you go into the limitations certain tracks set for horses to be ran?

[str]

Was going back through the thread and came across this, and it reminded me of something I read from the Mtn public handicapper at another forum. We were discussing Mtn's rep for having obscure high odd horses run 2nds/3rds out of nowhere, and the poster explained these can be spotted once you know an internal rule, a horse has to show once in atleast 8-10 races at MTN before not being allowed to race there anymore.

Could you go into the limitations certain tracks set for horses to be ran?

The rule does exist and I will fully explain it but I would not use the long shot theory in conjunction with it. It does not make sense to me.

Here is why.

He makes it sound like the people with the horse can run 2nd or 3rd anytime they want to. Like they are trying to cash a bet. And while I have discussed that in this thread, here is the bottom line on that.

It takes a damn good horseman or an incredibly lucky one to successfully pull off something like that . Many have tried and most have failed. It sounds easy enough but it is anything but easy. Nothing in horse racing is easy except losing.

The cost to carry a horse for 6 months while earning no money is so great that you would need to win more than once to offset those costs. It also takes a horse with some talent. Enough talent to win easily for the bottom because after 8 or 9 bad beats the horse will not be 100% mentally. So the horse needs to be much the best to win after months of defeat.

Because the purses are better today than they used to be, there is more money to be made trying to win and earning money doing so than back in the day when purses were 900.00 to the winner.

While his version of the rule is somewhat accurate it is missing a big piece to it. The rule is for horses that run for the LOWEST or BOTTOM claiming price in that state and do not run 1,2,3 in ten straight starts since starting for that lowest claiming number.

So it seems like a fun theory to kick around but it is not something I would chase. Chances are , especially in W.Va. where huge biases occur more often than at top tracks because of whether ( fact) as well as skill set of the track maintenance crew(IMO), it was the unfair advantage that a slow horse had on a particular day that probably caused a sudden better race if it was not something obvious like Blks. on or a trainer change or being gelded or something more subtle like front bandages off, a change of surface( mud ,etc.), a bit change or something like that.

Lastly, some of the public handicappers are solid. No doubt about it . But just as many are not, or worse. Know who your public handicapper is and know if he/she has a clue. Whatever you do, don't assume they know anything until they prove it to you.

Hope that helps.

[chaka]

refs just called graham for offensive pass interference as time expired on 50 yd td. he did push off but plenty of flopping by the db drew the immediate flag

[cutchemist42]

Thanks for that answer, very interesting to read.

When you were still training horses, were starter and optional claiming allowances really prevalent? I'm still a year into the horses and some posters on other forms make it sound like these were not relevant years ago. While I understand the purposes of OC/n1xs/etc, what are the reasons starter allowances are carded? Couldnt the horses in those races simply be put into allowances or the claiming side of optional claimers?

[str]

refs just called graham for offensive pass interference as time expired on 50 yd td. he did push off but plenty of flopping by the db drew the immediate flag

HAHAHA. Yes, plenty of flopping indeed. But it was a world class flop. Because it was so good, it sold itself to the refs. It is rare to see this as you know. My best guess is that if this occured in the Super Bowl it would have been a no call or the refs would have huddled and waved it off. That's just my opinion but while it was rare to see this yesterday, it is really rare to see this in a championship game, don't you think?