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I just think this game has 2 many variables for my feeble mind.
CD R2. Tap Into This #7 2-1 ML. Has been very competitive. Has F Prat today. Prev/Last ridden by K Assmussen. K Assmussen rides the #6 @ 10-1 ML. Why? I've seen similar before with this father son and don't understand.
Same race. The 1 Gearing Up. Nice horse. Very competitive on Turf. Trying his 1st on Dirt. Why?
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Another
CAN R2 #5 Rich City Girl.
10/24 4th start at KEE 600K.
5/25 5th start 7 months off PM 50K??? Wins somewhat easy
Today 6th start CAN for 30K, switching D -> T. WTF??
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Haven't forgot the Big Brown stuff. It's coming.
I'm finding myself busy these days and with trying to get readers on these Army Mules, it is a job in itself. Maybe after yesterdays and todays results, some might start believing. Hope so for their sake.
Madison: You are just FINE. Older and smarter.
First thing. FORGET THE MORNING LINE ODDS !!
They are an educated guess put out days before the race. You don't need anybody to tell you who should be favored.
Assmussen's father has two horses in the race. Most likely is 1 of 2 scenarios. Either his dad wants him on the first time starter because his son knows him from the mornings, or, the rider wants to be on that firster even if it means getting off of todays logical winner because he is high on him, or, the trainer could get Prat on a favorite so why not, or any number of reasons. So what do you do?
You watch the odds board and pick3's or whatever and watch where the money goes on that firster. Prat's mount will ,most likely run just fine. The firster could be really good either today or long term. Watch the money.
Do like I do when it comes to program odds.... don't even look. They are as overrated an angle as there is. Put them completely out of your mind.
When I do see them sometimes I just snicker a bit at how dumb they can be.
The money will talk. Don't pay a lick of attention to those ML odds Madison.
Geared Up : Maybe he did not get into the last long race on turf and the horse is ready to run. That happens often enough to be plausible. Or, why not try dirt. Runs on everything else and maybe this one is best on dirt? I don't know.
I would not read anything into that. It's not like the horse has run poorly on dirt yet. Maybe this horse runs hard period and does not care about the surface.
No need to read into that IMO. I would not run to bet him but I would watch him. Especially if he does NOT like the dirt, runs poorly and comes back where he DOES like a surface. That plays right into your knowledge base having seen him run poorly on dirt so that's a good thing for you.
GL sir.Comment -
IMO, this ,horse is being beautifully managed by the trainer. He is excellent and showing why again today.
They paid 435K for her as a 2 yr. old in training. Obviously they have high hopes for her.
She is bred to go long as well or better than any horse in here. He managed her perfectly in her first three races and tried to take that big step last October. Yes, it was a tough race. But when you pay 435k and your horse is winning for less, it's time to try an her big girl pants. She ran well but faltered and immediately got time off. Excellent work there by the trainer.
Let her grow as that 2 yr. old campaign was enough. Remember, this is long term managing here not a claimer.
As for today: If ALL THESE RUN TO THERE BEST EFFORT, THIS 5 HORSE WILL WIN EASILY.
She can go to the front or better still, give her a chance to learn by letting the 1 horse go and focus on getting her to relax a bit with the 1 in front and the 4 horse maybe in with her if they send her to the 1 or, outrun the 4 and stalk from 2nd. Either way, if this horse responds when asked, she will blow by those two mentioned around the far turn and most likely win eased up.
That is if everything goes well. These are horses though, so the only sure thing is there IS NO sure thing. But she is by far the best horse in here going in.
I love the trainers management here Madison.Comment -
As always, your time and knowledge is much appreciated!! Thank you!!Comment -
Last 2 horses today by Army Mule:
canterbury 4 @ 7:40
#5 lemon bomb (8-1)
Lemon Bomb: They will know she was in then race no doubt. Some attractive numbers and she is fast. She has to avoid the speed duel with the 2 horse. Needs to relax off that 2 horse and run her down into the stretch. If she goes off 8-1 as suggested, she would win more than 1 out of 8 of these, so... there is value to that price.
prarie meadows 4 @ 8:16
#6 kissed a cadet (2-1)
Kissed A Cadet: In a race where no horse really looks like it wants to go two turns, this Army Mule is more bred to do that than any of the others. Sometimes, in races like these, the slowest horse wins because the others burn out early and the plodder picks up the pieces. So this one certainly can win but if it is as low a price as expected, I usually try and get cute and put the AM on top of the plodder and a very small win ticket on the plodder. In this case the slow early plodder is most likely the 1 or the 2. The exacta prices would most likely determine which one or both or... neither.Comment
