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STR YOU HAVE TO WATCH THIS, I WAS WATCHING THE RACE YESTERDAY AND I SAW THIS,,,,,,,THIS HORSE SHOULD WIN NEXT TIME, GREAT BRIDE BY JOCK http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbh3n5vjzbeComment -
Unbelievable !
Tough game guys.
Jockey lost his irons when the horse bolted the 2nd time. The horse went around , or to the outside of the starting gate that was parallel to the outside fence .
Incredible.Last edited by str; 04-14-13, 11:12 AM.Comment -
yes and he still lost by a nose ...funny scary incredible and he will win his next start ...I think he did go around the starting gate, why do horses do that...because they are taught........and another thing ..now that all the major preps are over ,who do you like .....my friend things java war who won yesterday, but I think the field isn't as tough as others,,,,..me im standing pat on my GOLDENSCENTS,only because I said he would be in the derby ,before he ran that first race at santa anita....its a ego.thing.......I don't have to bet the derby........your thoughgts...are always wanted here......by the way ...have you handicapped any horses latelyComment -
I don't know why he bolted the 1st time. Best guess is that is where he pulls up in the morning at Laurel . He is a maiden but I don't know how many times he has raced and if he was ever at Pimlico before. Looks to me like the grandstand shadow came into play through the stretch. That color difference , too a horse , can make them hesitate sometimes and shy away from it.
They are not taught to run behind the gate, I think he bolted, then saw the gate, so he had to adjust on the fly. The rider lost his irons on the 2nd bolt to the outside, so he had virtually no control. Seen a lot of races but never anything that crazy. The jock is unreal. He never lost his composure . That is what held everything together. A terrific job by the jockey.
Until the draw, I will not have an opinion on the Derby. Let's see how it all shapes up.
Goldencents was a great call on your part back in December. Can't blame you for staying with him.
I have not had time to see a form in months. A lot going on in my world right now. I will make time to look at the Derby though. I hope I can be of some help.Comment -
Just curious sir, which past performance you find most useful. I know everyone has their preference. Just curious what you use.Comment -
always a help, hey I remember the pick you made last year at hawthorne I believe the ILL derby the horses from laurel ....you nailed it.......that derby must be this week........I guess........darkhorse ? did I ask you ? ......almost done with the repair from sandy it was a nightmare, but I learned more about that type of work ,than I learned in all my years, you tube and you and some friends......really helped.... ......Comment -
the horse and jock from the bolt Spicer CubDavid H. Butts 4 C Louis Quatorze-Carni's Luck by Carnivalay 
2 3 L Eppler, Mary 120 Perez, Xavier Comment -
Hi Mr. G and T. As you probably guessed, it's the classic DRF PP's for me. That is what I read for years so my eye is used to those.
I really did give the sheets a solid try decades ago. For me, they had too many holes in the logic behind them and I do not believe in the bounce theory NEARLY as much as most. Yes, horses can, and do, bounce sometimes. Just not nearly as much as most people think. While it can seem like a bounce, in many cases, it was something else that caused the problem, not just the horses last race or races. That is my opinion anyway.
As for the others, they are probably very good . They just are hard to read for me. I guess I am being lazy about it but let's call it set in my ways. That sounds so much better. Lol.
How about you ? Which do you prefer?Comment -
Yes sir, I'm like you, I started with DRF many many years ago, so it is what I'm used to (over 30 yrs). The classic one is what I am familiar with, I can't even get use to the new formula version. Can't teach an old dog tricks, I guess, lol.
What I find interesting about this year's derby is that I wonder if there are horses entered that have already cranked up to get points to get in. Will this point system make it even harder to see our next triple crown winner?
Keep up the great work and insights. Thanks for sharing.Comment -
HEY STR .....NEED YOUR THOUGHT HERE , BEEN FOLLOWING THIS HORSE, HE'S SPECTACULAR HE RAN LAST WEEK ,RAN A GOOD RACE , A FEW DAYS AGO HE WAS ENTERED TO RUN AT CALDER ON THE 20TH.... 7 DAYS AFTER HIS LAST RACE , NOW TODAY I SAW HE JUST GOT ENETERED INTO ANOTHER RACE AT CALER ON THE 21ST , THE FOLLOWING ARE HIS CONDTIONS, WHAT ARE THOUGHT ON IT, AND IS IT A GOOD THING .??????????
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...041213USA1.pdf LAST RACE
1. He's Spectacular is entered to run on April 20, 2013, at CALDER RACE COURSE.
Your comments for this horse were: sugar ryan
Full Entries for Race Overnight
Race: 7 - 3:32 PM Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum) Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / 10 cent Mega Six Jackpot (Races 7-12) / Daily Double
STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
Purse: $ 12,000. (Includes $500 - FOA - Florida Owners Awards) . For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Started For A Claiming Price Of $8,000 Or Less In 2012-2013 Or Claiming Price $10,000. Three Year Olds, 118 Lbs.; Older, 123 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since March 6 Allowed 3 Lbs. Claiming Price $10,000 (maiden Races, Claiming, And Starter Races For $8,000 Or Less Not Considered). Seven Furlongs.
2. He's Spectacular is entered to run on April 21, 2013, at CALDER RACE COURSE.
Full Entries for Race Overnight
Race: 7 - 3:32 PM Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum) Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / Pick 4 (Races 7-10) (50 cent minimum) / Daily Double
STARTER ALLOWANCE $32,000
Purse: $ 27,000. (Includes $4,000 - FOA - Florida Owners Awards) . For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Started For A Claiming Price Of $32,000 Or Less In 2012-2013. Three Year Olds, 118 Lbs.; Older, 123 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since March 7 Allowed 3 Lbs. (maiden Races, Claiming, And Starter Races for $25,000 or less not considered) (Condition Eligibility). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the Turf courseComment -
If I am reading these 2 conditions correctly, the difference in condition is night and day. A starter for 8k or less and a starter for 32k or less are miles apart. Sometimes, but not often, at a certain track , the starter series can be weak. I do not know if that is the case or not but typically if a horse would be 3-1 in the 8k starter he should be at least 15-1 in the 32k starter. Again, these type of races can come up tougher or weaker, and knowing the starter horses at the particular track would be a huge help. Sometimes if the 1st starter has plenty of entries and the next day the 2nd starter is having trouble filling up with enough entries to make a race, the racing secretary will call trainers and try and lure them into the smaller field to help make the race go. That is the politics behind the scenes that make some trainers run in spots they might not typically run in. Maybe that is the case, I don't know.
Hope that helps.Comment -
Yes you were reading them correctly.......as of right now .he s out of the easier condition ..and is running tomorrow.....would you consider that a good play....and the field has 8-9 in it.....I know Calif. Tracks fill up by asking a owner trainer to enter than s . But both of these fields were filled .with ar least 8-9Comment -
he is post 9 and is entered right now.........so I take it as a positive .......last night I was with some older men...looking at the racing form up near the sire ....I saw two prices one was like 25000 the other was 4.5 million what are they...im guessing one was the stud fee ...street sence the other im guessing they paid 4.5 millin at a auction ? not clear on that I use the book rather than the drf which I should be using.......also if you can find it ,there was a little article about goldenscents yesterday in the DRF about how they are finally getting him to relax just like you have always said anyway thoughts on the clder horse todayComment -
Race 7 - 3:32 PM Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum) Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / Pick 4 (Races 7-10) (50 cent minimum) / Daily Double
STARTER ALLOWANCE $32,000 Purse $27,000. (Includes $4,000 – FOA - Florida Owners Awards). For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Started For A Claiming Price Of $32,000 Or Less In 2012-2013. Three Year Olds, 118 Lbs.; Older, 123 Lbs. Non-winners of a race at a mile or over since March 7 Allowed 3 Lbs. (Maiden races, Claiming, and Starter races for $25,000 or less not considered) (Condition Eligibility). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the Turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile and One Sixteenth). One And One Sixteenth Miles. (Turf) 1 1 Knock Rock (KY) 4/G L A Smith 120 A C Bezara 4/1 2 2 Leveraged Loan (KY) 3/G L M Argueta 115 L Azpurua, Jr. 8/1 3 3 Kings Over (FL) 4/G L P Lopez 120 P R Walder 5/2 4 4 Marine (KY) 4/C L A Gonzalez 123 M J Azpurua 12/1 6 6 El Romano (KY) 4/C L J M Rios 120 A Sano 6/1 7 7 Cozy Kitten (KY) 5/G L E J Zayas 1137 D Alvarado 4/1 8 8 Fan Base (FL) 4/C L M R Cruz 120 P A Gleaves 3/1 Also Eligibles: 5 5 Thank U Philippe (FL) (MTO) 6/G L J J Gonzales 1185 M D Wolfson 2/1 9 9 He's Spectacular (FL) (MTO) 4/C L D F Gomez 120 H Toledo 6/1 Comment -
Kentucky Derby: Goldencents learning to relax early during Santa Anita drill
By Steve Andersen
Comments 53Email
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Barbara D. Livingston
Trainer Doug O'Neill says he is pleased with the way Goldencents is relaxing early and finishing fast during his workouts to get ready for the Kentucky Derby.
ARCADIA, Calif. – Clockers at Santa Anita timed Kentucky Derby hopeful Goldencents working a half-mile in 48.40 seconds on Wednesday.
Trainer Doug O’Neill said that was only part of the story, that Goldencents worked six furlongs in 1:14.40.
Either way, Goldencents, winner of the Santa Anita Derby on April 6, moved closer to a start in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 4. The goal of Wednesday’s workout was a continuation of a theme that O’Neill stressed in late March, getting Goldencents to relax in the early part of his workouts.
[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]
The strategy worked in the Santa Anita Derby, when Goldencents stalked the pace and won the race over 1 1/8 miles by 1 1/4 lengths over Flashback. In Wednesday’s workout, Goldencents worked alone under exercise jockey Jonny Garcia.
O’Neill said he thought that Goldencents was able to relax “big time. I saw a relaxed, mature horse that finished up great,” O’Neill said.
He timed Goldencents in 37.20 seconds for the first three furlongs.
Owned by the partnership of Glenn Sorgenstein, Joshua Kaplan, David Kenney, and University of Louisville coach Rick Pitino, Goldencents could give O’Neill a second consecutive win in the Kentucky Derby. He won the 2012 running with I’ll Have Another.
O’Neill said that Goldencents will work April 25 before being shipped to Churchill Downs on April 27. Kevin Krigger, the colt’s regular rider, will have the mount in the Kentucky Derby, his first ride in the race.
Baffert undecided about Code West
Code West, sixth in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 30, is being pointed to the $200,000 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park on May 11, but trainer Bob Baffert has not completely ruled out a start in the Kentucky Derby.
Through Wednesday, Code West was ranked 22nd in the points standings for the Kentucky Derby. The top 20 earn berths in the Kentucky Derby. Code West could move into the first 20 with potential defections from the race in coming days.
“I’ve got to make a decision in the next week,” Baffert said.Comment -
Does anyone know where to find the finish times for all the prep races of 2013? I can only find the 1st place time but I am looking for all of the horses finish times.Comment -
Is it free? I cant seem to find what I am looking for. Can anyone show me how I would find all the times for Apr 13 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn? ThanksComment -
If they exist, someone in here will let you know. Being old school, I would count lengths and subtract one fifth of a second for each length off the winner.
I am sure you have valid reasons for wanting them but please remember, those final times will be predicated on what the riders were doing through the lane, that is, if they burned themselves up early in a duel, they had nothing left and were no longer pushing their mounts. If they were full of run late, they could be very helpful and those final 1/4 mile times can be equated by subtracting the lengths made up at one fifth of a second per length.
An example would be if the last 1/4 was run in 25 and the horse made up 4 lengths, that horse ran the last 1/4 in 24 1/5.
Hope that helps.Comment -
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...41313USA10.pdf does this help and do the every 5 length is 1 second ..rightLast edited by harthebar; 04-22-13, 06:21 PM.Comment -
I feel like I want to spend a week and re-read this whole thread before horse season really kicks off. Thanks again STR for all this...its become an amazing resource.Comment -
I kinida understand what you mean dgbooth ,thru out the season ..or year we look forward to the big races ,all leading up to the cup day.....then its a let down....llike Christmas when all the presents are open....then we start with the prep races ..waiting till the derby and all the big races through out the year travers Belmont ..etc.....but I do get it.....if that what you meanComment -
Thanks BG. It has become so large that it would be best if thread numbers were broken down into an index by category or date for easier reference . That way, when wanting to read about a particular subject, you could find it without all the searching .
The unofficial racing season does end after the Breeders Cup races in November. Yes, plenty of racing still goes on but it takes a bit of a break until Florida starts to kick off the new year with their three year old races. It used to be the Hutchinson Stakes going 7/8s .
Again, thank you for the kind words.Comment -
Derby write up, coming after drawing?
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I will put my thoughts to words on Sat.
I do need to see whats going on with the weather.
The weather will also dictate track maintenance. I really hope that has no play in this race but it most certainly did when Mine That Bird won on a muddy track IMO.Comment -
Thanks strComment -
With rain a real possibility on Sat. for the Derby, I thought it was important to copy and paste these posts from a couple of weeks ago about Charles Town track maintenance for one of their biggest days of the year.
Track superintendents always have a choice to make when heavy rain is in the forecast. Allow the inside to become the deepest part of the track, risk losing cushion from the surface, and accept slow times and bogged down conditions on the rail that could easily lead to bad publicity, or grade the track by pushing some cushion off the inside and towards the outside crown of the track so it has somewhere to go when it starts wanting to wash down towards the inside. On high profile days, most opt for the latter as that also provides a safe and typically quick surface on those very important days when large crowds are watching. For the bettor, these days need a keen eye to judge if the inside is a better place to be than the middle or outside.
Just because a lot of you might be casual players does not mean you can't develop as keen an eye for this as those people who work within the game. I have spoken to this at length previously in this thread if you care to read more. Just do not let yourself accept what an " expert" says a track bias is or isn't. You will have to trust me on this one, but the majority of those experts have less of a true understanding of what a bias actually is than you would think. Watch the replays, decide for yourself after tracking multiple horses within those replays and make your own determination. Many of you will be right as often or more than some ( not all, but definitely some) of those talking heads on T.V. in no time.
Originally Posted by str 
It rained very hard yesterday before the 1st race, as you know. The track was sloppy all night. With the sun out and a solid breeze it should dry out enough for them to get the road grader on the track this afternoon if they want to. This will probably take place around 2-3pm. That is typically when they do it, if they do it. If that happens, look for the inside trip horses, not just the speed on the rail, but the inside stalkers and closers to have a solid advantage. Watch the replays of the first couple of races to verify that the track is fair or if indeed the inside is the place to be. Don't think that horses can not close at C.T. They certainly can. It's all about the pressure up front and the duels that take place. Remember, a horse can stay on the rail for much of the race, then swing out and finish in the 3-4 path and still have gained a solid advantage from an inside trip. It's not where they are through the stretch, it's where they are for the most seconds during the entire race.
When you get there and are still in the parking lot, wander over to the chute area of the clubhouse turn. Look under the inside rail and see if the dirt is very smooth like it was just manicured or if it has runoff from the rain last night. If you are not sure or confused, compare the area under the rain on the clubhouse turn to the area under the rail in the chute. They do not groom the small chute area as often as the main track so it may be different. If it is smooth underneath the rail, the grader has been out and there is a solid chance the rail will be much better than the rest of the track. The blade of the road grader is the only way that area gets manicured. If it is not smooth and has clots or runoff marks in it, that means they did not grade the track and it will be fair across the surface or possibly even favor the outside slightly. I say that because looking at last nights results, it shows some of everything, thus pointing to an even, fair surface. That cannot change to an inside track without grading taking place. Because the track has very little pitch to it, it takes C.T. about a week at least to go from inside to outside, whereas tracks like Laurel or Pimlico, with steeper pitch takes about 3 days.
Hope that helps. Good luck tonight.
It was indeed a rail bias last night. Not a speed bias as I heard someone on TVG say IMO. I say that because a blind 2.00 exacta box of the three inside post positions would have produced a 351.60 return on a 156.00 investment. When an inside bias occurs, it effects cheaper horses much more so than good horses. Reading the charts you will notice that some early races had 30-1 and 40-1 shots running very well. It was not a coincidence. The rail has less cushion than the outer portion, thus the improvement. Conversely, some of those outside horses that failed to fire will be better odds next time and have a huge excuse that will not show up in the form as anything but a poor effort. You will know better than most the real reason the horse did not run well.Comment
